This week poll reveals some significant change of sentiment on SKI board. Simply put the shorts just vanished. From 36% shorts last week we fell to only 10% this week. At the same time longs increased from 45% to 81% while percentage of invested members increased from 82% to 90%.
The longs have about 56% of their capital invested. That is what is left to propel the market up since there is almost no one short or out to switch to the long side.
Also, the longs are pretty complacent at 68%, highest so far.
The shorts are almost non existent 10%, and they are not even invested much, only about 31% capital invested.
On every one short there are more than 8 longs, and more than 9 not short. Seems pretty crowded on the long side.
All this change happened while HUI index moved up by only 4.42%. I suspect that the main reason for this change of sentiment might be new SKI signal but we don't really know, do we? The one thing we know though is that majority of members of the forum are aligned with SKI system and Jeff's position. I actually never believed that that is the case, so there you go, I learnt something.
As of today the SKI forum contrary temperature stands at -3937 degrees (record low so far). If this poll has any predictive value (which I am not suggesting) this would mean we should be heading south or at least have a serious resistance ahead of us.
My personal comment: Jeff and SKI declared breakout and medium term bullishness until we reach the 92-96 index but I don't see it. The configuration in which the signal happened is not confirmed by classical TA because we have just run into a heavy resistance and still are below it. I think that the real breakout would coincide with the new 92-96 buy and until then anything is possible. I'm 30% long but that is my core position no trading positions yet. I will buy a serious decline or a new 92-96 signal. Personally I am cheering for a decline, till then I am watching.
Good luck to all,
Branko
No comments:
Post a Comment