SKI Forum Gold Market Sentiment

The last week the results of the sentiment poll suggested that the potential for the market to behave in a bearish manner was slightly higher than to behave in a bullish manner. Also, there was plenty of energy for the market to go either way which revealed itself on FED announcement. The HUI declined by 4.19% so we could say it was a pretty accurate prediction. I do understand though that sentiment could change significantly during the week and it would be more appropriate to measure it every day but for now let's just do it every Monday and see how it goes.

This week the Monday market sentiment looks pretty neutral with slight bearish bias.

Number of participants invested raised from 63% to 82%, quite significant.

Of all participants only 18% are not invested, 45% are long and 36% are short. More balanced than the last week.

Of all long positions 80% are moderately invested or under invested. So, more people are invested but they are invested with less capital percentage. There is plenty space to increase long positions.

Of all short positions 75% are moderately invested or under invested, the same as the last week. There is more space to increase short positions than long but less than the last week.

30% of all longs are pretty complacent (decrease) but there are also 25% scared longs (increase) who are probably going to be easy on the trigger if the market goes against them. There are more longs than before but they are less confident.

There is less shorts than longs but they are very complacent 88% (big increase) and less scared only 6% (decrease). The shorts seem very comfortable in their positions but we will see if they are right.

There is more potential for fueling short side than long but not as much as the last week. On every 1 short there are now only 1.8 participants that are not short. On the other side on every 1 long there are only 1.2 participants that are not long.

As of today the SKI forum temperature stands at -45.83 degrees which is more balanced than the last week when it was -95.28. So, the SKI forum is mostly neutral with a slight bearish bias. There is a lot of energy for the market to go either way.

Good luck to everyone,
Branko