SKI Forum Gold Market Sentiment

This week poll reveals some significant change of sentiment on SKI board. Simply put the shorts just vanished. From 36% shorts last week we fell to only 10% this week. At the same time longs increased from 45% to 81% while percentage of invested members increased from 82% to 90%.

The longs have about 56% of their capital invested. That is what is left to propel the market up since there is almost no one short or out to switch to the long side.
Also, the longs are pretty complacent at 68%, highest so far.

The shorts are almost non existent 10%, and they are not even invested much, only about 31% capital invested.
On every one short there are more than 8 longs, and more than 9 not short. Seems pretty crowded on the long side.

All this change happened while HUI index moved up by only 4.42%. I suspect that the main reason for this change of sentiment might be new SKI signal but we don't really know, do we? The one thing we know though is that majority of members of the forum are aligned with SKI system and Jeff's position. I actually never believed that that is the case, so there you go, I learnt something.

As of today the SKI forum contrary temperature stands at -3937 degrees (record low so far). If this poll has any predictive value (which I am not suggesting) this would mean we should be heading south or at least have a serious resistance ahead of us.

My personal comment: Jeff and SKI declared breakout and medium term bullishness until we reach the 92-96 index but I don't see it. The configuration in which the signal happened is not confirmed by classical TA because we have just run into a heavy resistance and still are below it. I think that the real breakout would coincide with the new 92-96 buy and until then anything is possible. I'm 30% long but that is my core position no trading positions yet. I will buy a serious decline or a new 92-96 signal. Personally I am cheering for a decline, till then I am watching.

Good luck to all,
Branko

SKI Forum Gold Market Sentiment

The last week the results of the sentiment poll suggested that the potential for the market to behave in a bearish manner was slightly higher than to behave in a bullish manner. Also, there was plenty of energy for the market to go either way which revealed itself on FED announcement. The HUI declined by 4.19% so we could say it was a pretty accurate prediction. I do understand though that sentiment could change significantly during the week and it would be more appropriate to measure it every day but for now let's just do it every Monday and see how it goes.

This week the Monday market sentiment looks pretty neutral with slight bearish bias.

Number of participants invested raised from 63% to 82%, quite significant.

Of all participants only 18% are not invested, 45% are long and 36% are short. More balanced than the last week.

Of all long positions 80% are moderately invested or under invested. So, more people are invested but they are invested with less capital percentage. There is plenty space to increase long positions.

Of all short positions 75% are moderately invested or under invested, the same as the last week. There is more space to increase short positions than long but less than the last week.

30% of all longs are pretty complacent (decrease) but there are also 25% scared longs (increase) who are probably going to be easy on the trigger if the market goes against them. There are more longs than before but they are less confident.

There is less shorts than longs but they are very complacent 88% (big increase) and less scared only 6% (decrease). The shorts seem very comfortable in their positions but we will see if they are right.

There is more potential for fueling short side than long but not as much as the last week. On every 1 short there are now only 1.8 participants that are not short. On the other side on every 1 long there are only 1.2 participants that are not long.

As of today the SKI forum temperature stands at -45.83 degrees which is more balanced than the last week when it was -95.28. So, the SKI forum is mostly neutral with a slight bearish bias. There is a lot of energy for the market to go either way.

Good luck to everyone,
Branko

SKI forum gold market sentiment

Here is a short breakdown of the poll.

About 63% participants are currently invested.

Of all participants 37% are not invested, 39% are long and 24% are short. So, more than 1/3 is out of the market and the rest is 50% more long then short.

Of all long positions 68% are moderately invested or under invested. Sounds as there is plenty space to increase long positions.

Of all short positions 75% are moderately invested or under invested. There is even more space to increase short positions than long.

42% of all longs are pretty complacent but there are also 16% scared longs who are probably going to be easy on the trigger if the market goes against them.

There is less shorts than longs but they are more complacent 58% (vs 42%) and less scared only 8% (vs 16%).

There is more potential for fueling short side than long. On every 1 short there are 3.1 participants that are not short. On the other side on every 1 long there are only 1.6 participants that are not long.

I created an indicator that I will call the SKI forum temperature. It will work like this: if temperature is 0 it means that potential to go long is equal to potential to go short. If it is positive it will mean that long_potential > short_potential and opposite if it is negative. Today the SKI market temperature stands at -95.28 degrees. It seems that the sentiment is mildly bearish and we should expect sideways to down for the week (except if we are a contrary indicator :)). I will track this number every week (maybe day, what do you think?) and start collecting data so we can have a proper history. Pitty I didn't start it 7 years ago as I intended.

Good luck to everyone,
Branko