I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months). I will keep posting in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone!
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. I now post my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 44 days, +10.04%; (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4783)
*Comment/Dec29: The S&P is currently exhibiting a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal marked the beginning of a rally that brought the price close to the old all-time high at $4818. While short-term overbought conditions could potentially lead to a correction, the long-term structure now appears to be bullish. However, at this moment, I'm not inclined to actively pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering reevaluating my position after a potential correction has occurred.
HUI, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 18 days, -2.98% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $233.22)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of a 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the HUI index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $245 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate HUI reaching $270 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for HUI is situated around $225 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $195.
NEW/Dec19: The market action today has been remarkable. The breach of the $245 resistance level is an important development, and now we need to see a follow-through to confirm this move. Additionally, the 218-222 index is in the process of generating a buy signal, which will enhance the likelihood of reaching the initial target at $270. With the current momentum (if confirmed), this could potentially happen earlier than previously anticipated, possibly by mid-January 2024. If this materializes, the next target at $300 might be within reach by March 2024. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
NEW/Dec29: As of now, none of the conditions (mentioned above) for a rapid ascent to $270 and beyond have been met. There hasn't been a substantial follow-through after the $245 level was breached, and furthermore, the gold price has faced rejection once again at $2070-2080. It appears that a short-term correction may currently be in progress to at least touch/break the 16-20 index (around $225).
NEW/Jan09: The correction is approaching the 16-20 index buy signal. Ideally, after generating the 16-20 buy signal, the decline will extend to $225 to trigger the 92-96 index sell signal without activating the 35-39 index sell signal. If the price then reverses, even a small rally could generate a true 92-96 buy signal. This could revive the $270 target scenario, possibly evolving into a bull market later this year. The probability of this scenario is reasonable as long as the gold price remains above $1970, but it would gain momentum if gold can sustainably surpass $2100.
NEW/Jan12: The 16-20 BUY signal has indeed been generated. However, today's strong rally diminishes the likelihood of triggering a 92-96 SELL signal as the next one to trigger. While it remains possible, it now requires precise 'maneuvering', which typically isn't the norm. More likely, if Thursday marked the bottom, we may witness a gradual sideways or upward movement throughout the month, perhaps even beyond, aiming for the $250 mark once more. This could establish the foundation for a potential move to $270 and beyond for the remainder of the year. Currently, my bias leans towards bullish. however, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 index at this stage would remain rather bearish, potentially causing a sharp drop to at least $195.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 46 days, +10.05% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $16832)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal aligning with the breakthrough of the resistance line enhances its potential impact. An all-time high has been achieved, but in the short term, the price appears to be significantly overextended and possibly in overbought territory.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 37 days, +7.96% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY $2000/+2.56% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $1950)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently in a bullish configuration, demonstrating a robust SKI bullish structure. The recent alignment of the 35-39 buy signal with a 92-96 buy signal, coupled with the breakthrough of resistance lines, strengthens its potential impact. Unlike the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq, the Russell is still some distance away from its all-time high. Nevertheless, it has been the best performer among them recently, which could suggest a broadening of the stocks participating in this bull market—a bullish sign in itself. However, in the short term, this rally appears to have advanced rapidly and may have become overextended. A healthy correction might be in order, to restore balance.
New/Jan12: Indeed, a significant correction has occurred since my last comment. There's a high probability that a 16-20 buy signal will be generated tomorrow. In the present setup, this would be an optimal point to establish a support level and, once done, initiate a long position in the Russell.
$TNX - 10Y yield, last signal 92-96 SELL, 18 days, -0.1% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to NOT SELL 3.92/-0.76% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current 3.95%)
*comment/DEC15: The recent 92-96 bull market has come to an end. Since the 2020 bottom, there have been three significant rising waves, each marked by a true bull 92-96 signal. The last one pushed yields to a new high at 5%, but it eventually reversed, resulting in a loss. This is a sign of the long-term trend reversing. Currently, I anticipate the formation of a bottom shortly. However, I don't expect the subsequent rally to surpass 4.2-4.4%. Beyond this point, I anticipate that the decline will resume. In the long term (months), potential downside targets could be 3.4%, 3.2%, and ultimately 2.8%. By March 2024, yields should be in the 3.2%-3.4% range, and if we reach 2.8%, it might happen towards the end of 2024.
NEW/Jan12: A 16-20 sell signal is likely to be generated tomorrow. This signal could potentially mark the peak of this correction. A bit more time might be needed to confirm the top. Currently, I don't anticipate the rates to surpass 4.2% before the decline resumes.
XAU, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 18 days, -2.86% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $120.64)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of a 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the XAU index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $126 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate HUI reaching $145 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for XAU is situated around $110 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be in the $95-$100 area.
NEW/Dec19: The market action today has been remarkable. The breach of the $126 resistance level is an important development, and now we need to see a follow-through to confirm this move. Additionally, the 218-222 index is in the process of generating a buy signal, which will enhance the likelihood of reaching the initial target at $138. With the current momentum (if confirmed), this could potentially happen earlier than previously anticipated, possibly by mid-January 2024. If this materializes, the next target at $165 might be within reach by March 2024. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
NEW/Dec29: As of now, none of the conditions (mentioned above) for a rapid ascent to $138 and beyond have been met. There hasn't been a substantial follow-through after the $126 level was breached, and furthermore, the gold price has faced rejection once again at $2070-2080. It appears that a short-term correction may currently be in progress to at least touch/breach the 16-20 index (around $115).
NEW/Jan09: The correction is approaching the 16-20 index buy signal. Ideally, after generating the 16-20 buy signal, the decline will extend to trigger the 92-96 index sell signal without activating the 35-39 index sell signal. If the price then reverses, even a small rally could generate a true 92-96 buy signal. This could revive the $138-140 target scenario, possibly evolving into a bull market later this year. The probability of this scenario is reasonable as long as the gold price remains above $1970, but it would gain momentum if gold can sustainably surpass $2100.
NEW/Jan12: The 16-20 BUY signal has indeed been generated. However, today's robust rally reduces the likelihood of a 92-96 SELL signal becoming the next one to trigger. While still possible, it now requires precise maneuvering, which isn't typical. More likely, if Thursday marked the bottom, we might observe a gradual sideways or upward movement throughout the month, and possibly beyond, aiming to reach the $130 mark once again. This could lay the groundwork for a potential move to $145 and beyond for the rest of the year. Currently, my bias leans towards bullish. however, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 index at this stage would remain rather bearish, potentially causing a sharp drop to at least $105.
ASA, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 36 days, +7.13% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $15.26)
*comment/Dec15: Following today's 92-96 buy signal, the SKI structure for ASA presents a bullish alignment. However, there are some noteworthy issues to consider. In comparison to other gold indices, ASA seems to lack significant short-term momentum. In SKI terms, this is evident as the 35-39 index seems to have more influence than the 92-96 signal at the moment. While the SKI structure is relatively solid, the technical analysis (TA) setup is not particularly favourable. This is primarily due to the way the price interacts with the resistance line, which resembles the formation of a short-term peak. To confirm the 92-96 buy signal, it appears that a 218-222 buy signal will be necessary for the price to close above the trendline, which is currently around $16. This confirmation would strengthen the argument for a sustained bullish move, potentially propelling the price towards the $18.5 target. As long as the spot gold price remains above $1970, such a scenario appears plausible. However, for a more enduring medium-term rally, it's likely that spot gold needs to maintain levels above $2100, serving as a critical catalyst for continued upward movement.
NEW/Dec19: The close today at precisely $16 marks a potential breakout, but it's crucial to see a follow-through to confirm this move. As mentioned earlier, the structure of ASA's SKI configuration appears solid and somewhat distinct from other gold indices, which is an encouraging sign for the sector, especially given ASA's track record of marking significant market turns in recent years. While the 35-39 index has been in charge (on the path), now with the 92-96 on board, everything seems to be aligning for a significant bullish run. The first target is set at $18.5, but the ascent shouldn't necessarily stop there. There's potential for the price to reach $21.5, possibly by March 2024, if this bullish trend has indeed started. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
NEW/Dec29: At present, none of the conditions mentioned earlier for a swift climb to $18.5 and beyond seem to have materialized. There hasn't been a significant follow-through after the $16 level was breached, and the gold price has once again failed around $2070-2080. It appears that a short-term correction may be underway, possibly testing the $14-14.5 range. In the event of the 92-96 index selling during this correction, it would be preferable to avoid seeing the 35-39 sell signal emerge before the 92-96 buy signal returns. The current support zone is approximately between $13.5 and $14, with resistance remaining at $16.
NEW/Jan03: The correction is underway and the 16-20 buy signal has already been generated. Let's assess possible scenarios.
1. If the current decline continues, the next signal to look for is the 92-96 sell signal. If this sell signal marks a low and is followed by a 92-96 buy signal, that buy signal would be a true buy signal, and whether it is followed by a 35-39 sell signal becomes less relevant. To support this scenario, the price should not breach the $14ish level on the downside and then rise above $14.6ish before mid-January. Ultimately, overcoming the $16 level would confirm a bull market.
2. If the fall continues, and the next signal is the 92-96 sell signal without marking a low, and it is followed by a 35-39 sell signal, this would turn the SKI configuration bearish, suggesting further potential decline with a target around $12ish.
3. If the recently executed 16-20 buy signal marks a low and a rally emerges, pushing the price above $16 (the recent top), this would signify the beginning of a bull wave.
A similar configuration exists with all other gold indices, but the setup is a bit tighter. Considering that the ASA chart was the best-performing SKI chart in the gold sector in recent years, I am paying due attention.
NEW/Jan12: Today's robust rally reduces the likelihood of a 92-96 SELL signal becoming the next one to trigger. While still possible, it now requires precise maneuvering, which isn't typical. This makes scenario #3 the most likely to unfold. If Thursday marked the bottom, we may observe a gradual sideways or upward movement throughout the month, and possibly beyond, to reach the $16 mark once again. This could set the stage for a potential move to $18.5 and beyond for the remainder of the year. My current bias leans towards a bullish outlook. However, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 indices at this stage would remain rather bearish, potentially causing a sharp drop to at least $12.
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 109 days, +63.58% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to BUY 42073/-2.43% or lower; 35-39 on BUY > to NOT SELL 43771/+1.51% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $43120
*comment/Oct25: BTC broke out of the 6 months trading range ($25K-$32K). The upside target is 45K.
NEW/Dec08: The price has hit the $45,000 target, but I anticipate one more push, likely reaching around $48,000, followed by a correction to test the breakout level at $32,000.
NEW/Jan09: The price has hit the $48K target as stated above. A correction should start soon, probably down to $35K.
NEW/Jan12: The correction has indeed commenced, and it appears that the 35-39 index is likely to sell tomorrow. This could signify the beginning of a phase of declining prices, possibly bottoming out in the range of 35-38K.
COPX (copper miners ETF), 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 37.3/+1.19% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $36.86)
NEW/Dec29: COPX is in a bullish configuration. In the broader context, since the 2021 peak, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle with a horizontal resistance zone between $42 and $44, and a rising support level currently at around $35. The presence of both the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals, in addition to the S&P 500 bull market, indicates support for the price to potentially reach the resistance area within the coming 4 weeks ($42-$44). In the short term, it's worth noting that the recent 92-96 buy signal might have marked the commencement of a minor correction.
NEW/Jan09: As expected, the 92-96 buy signal marked the start of a correction. It now appears that the correction might be more substantial than initially anticipated, possibly triggering a 92-96 sell signal. However, my bullish outlook for the next few months remains unchanged as long as the price stays above $35 and the 35-39 index doesn't sell. As long as these conditions are met, the current price fluctuations are viewed as setting the stage for a breakout.
NEW/Jan12: 92-96 index sold indeed. Read my comment above.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 15 days, +0.59% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.44)
*comment/Dec29: DXY is presently demonstrating a bearish SKI and technical analysis (TA) setup. However, it's important to note that the price is currently positioned just above a long-term support level that dates back to the 2011 low. Given that the current TA indicators are all in a deep oversold territory, it's unlikely that this support will be breached in the short term. Additionally, there's a possibility of a short-term dollar rally, potentially targeting the $105-106 range. As part of my strategy, I may consider taking a short position in gold during this dollar rally, which can also serve as a hedge against my long gold positions.
NEW/Jan09: So far, the correction rally has reached $103.1. I believe there's more upside potential, at least to $104 and possibly beyond, as I mentioned previously.
GDX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 18 days, -3.35% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.7)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the GDX index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $32 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate GDX reaching $35 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for GDX is situated around $27 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be at the $23 level.
NEW/Jan09: The correction has triggered a 16-20 index buy signal. Ideally, the decline will continue to the point of activating the 92-96 index sell signal without triggering the 35-39 index sell signal. If the price then reverses, even a modest rally could generate a true 92-96 buy signal. This could reinvigorate the $35 target scenario, potentially leading to a bull market later this year. The likelihood of this scenario is reasonable as long as the gold price remains above $1970, but it would gain more momentum if gold can maintain levels above $2100 sustainably. On the other hand, if the price action triggers a 35-39 index sell signal, the true bull scenario will be cancelled, but if the price can then hold above $27, there will still be bullish signals. However, the projections and timeframes for different scenarios will change.
NEW/Jan12: Today's robust rally reduces the likelihood of a 92-96 SELL signal becoming the next one to trigger. While still possible, it now requires precise maneuvering, which isn't typical. More likely, if Thursday marked the bottom, we might observe a gradual sideways or upward movement throughout the month, and possibly beyond, aiming to reach the $32 mark once again. This could lay the groundwork for a potential move to $35 and beyond for the rest of the year. Currently, my bias leans towards bullish. However, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 index at this stage would remain rather bearish, potentially causing a sharp drop to at least $25.
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has placed the SKI configuration of the GDXJ index in a bullish position, suggesting a solid foundation for potential upward movement. Unlike other gold indices, this buy signal represents a 'true bull' signal, implying the possibility of a long-term bull market. However, similar to other indices, there are still significant resistance levels that must be surpassed to confirm a bullish trend, particularly the $41 level, indicated by the 218-222 index buy signal. In the short term, the likelihood of this occurring may not be very high, particularly in light of the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. Nonetheless, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to expect GDXJ to reach $51 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for GDXJ is around $35 and is gradually increasing. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $28. Monitoring the price action closely, especially concerning key support levels, will be important in assessing the market's future direction.
NEW/Jan12: Today's sudden surge has effectively prevented the 92-96 index from terminating the existing buy signal. If this momentum can be maintained for a day or two, the possibility of a true bull market within the 92-96 buy signal will persist. This would represent a strong bullish signal for the entire sector, as juniors are expected to take the lead in a bull market.
GLD, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 57 days, +3.68% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $189.71)
*comment/Oct20: GLD flipped to a bullish constellation with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades but it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active (218-222/439-443/660-664).
The SKI structure of today's double buy signal is sound but there are caveats. A 16-20 sell signal came in between the 35-39 buy and the 92-96 buy which somewhat diminishes the strength of the signal. The stop on this 92-96 buy signal is falling for the next two weeks and if the price falls back below $181 (former resistance) there is a danger that the signal will end quickly. After about two weeks from today, the 16-20 index back prices will rise above the 92-96 index back prices and provide some sort of 'protection'.
After a strong move like the one seen in the past two weeks, which can be categorized as an impulse wave, it is often the case that we get a quick correction to sell/buy the 92-96 index to morphe the signal into a true bull signal while scaring everyone out. I am not predicting that but if it happens the key is to generate a new 92-96 buy before the 35-39 index sells. The key seems to be not to fall under $181 ($1960 spot), and if we do then not for more than a couple of days.
NEW/Nov10: The failure to sustain the $181 ($1960 spot) level is concerning. The immediate target shifts to $175, and if it fails to hold, it suggests a possible breakdown in gold prices. In such a scenario, I am prepared to liquidate all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov16: The initial correction following the 92-96 buy signal appears to be a classic test of the breakout so far. The uptrend line is holding at $175 ($1920 spot), as is the major resistance/support level at $181 ($1960 spot). While we're not completely in the clear yet, the situation is increasingly looking more robust with each passing day. However, the issue is the performance of gold stocks. Their relative weakness compared to the metal itself needs to stop soon for a more cohesive bullish picture.
NEW/Nov30: The test of breakout proved successful, leading to a sustained rally. The 92-96 buy signal has held, lending a solid foundation to the SKI structure. Moving forward, the $180 ($2000 spot) price level should act as support. In my view, a breakthrough above $191 ($2070 spot) could potentially trigger a short squeeze, which in turn might propel gold price toward $2200 and possibly higher.
NEW/Dec01: We've reached $191 ($2070 spot). This level could either represent a peak or, alternatively, we might see a gap up on Monday, potentially leading to a rally towards $2200. While daily indicators signal an overbought condition, the weekly indicators do not reflect the same.
In the Commitments of Traders (COTs) reports, commercials are at maximum short positions, and large speculators are at maximum long, but the positions for small speculators remain neutral. Given this setup, a push towards $2100 might be necessary before any correction occurs, to consolidate the gains we've recently seen. My bias is bullish short-term but medium term we need some cooling off or this rally might become too fast too soon.
NEW/Dec08: A cooling-off phase, mentioned above, is indeed occurring, and the key question is how deep this correction will go. According to the SKI structure, as long as the 92-96 level remains intact, the correction can persist. In numerical terms, this translates to around $176 (approximately $1900 in spot price) under the condition that the decline does not escalate into a full-fledged crash. A more favourable scenario would be if the breakout level becomes a supportive floor at $181 (around $1960 in spot price). In this case, the correction would resemble a test of the breakout level from above.
NEW/Dec29: The price of gold is currently maintaining its position above the $181 level ($1960 spot). However, there appears to be a diminishing momentum, and the likelihood of a break above $2100 in the short term seems low. As I previously mentioned, as long as the SKI 92-96 buy signal is in control, there's no immediate concern for the bullish scenario. Nevertheless, in the short term, it appears that more consolidation or correction may be necessary before the $2100 area can be convincingly breached.
SLV, last signal 35-39 SELL (double SELL with 92-96)(also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $21.19)
*comment/Jan09: The 92-96 buy signal sold, and the 35-39 will do the same in the next few days. Since these signals are happening inside a bigger chart pattern that has taken the shape of a bullish contracting triangle dating back to the top of 2020, I am not inclined to interpret them as overly bearish long-term. However, in the short term, they suggest that the momentum is to the downside, and a visit to the lower boundary of the contracting triangle is probable ($19.5 - $20ish). There is a plethora of possible scenarios that can transpire during the next few weeks, but none of them seem too important unless the major resistance/support lines are breached. That means $19 ($21 spot) on the downside and $23 ($25 spot) on the upside.
New/Jan12: The 35-39 index has indeed sold, in line with my previous comment. If Thursday marked a low, a rise above $21.5 in the coming weeks could generate a 92-96 buy signal which might trigger a rally back to the upper boundary of the current trading range at $23 and even a possible breakout. Currently, my bias is leaning towards a bullish outlook. Nevertheless, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 indices at this stage would still be bearish, potentially leading to a sharp drop to at least $19.5.
TIP, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 37 days, +2.88% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to BUY 107.31/-0.45% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 crossed to BUY > to SELL 106.77/-0.95% or lower; current $107.79)
*comment/Dec14: The target range of $107-$108 has indeed been achieved. Today's 92-96 buy signal is likely indicating a temporary high, but it's important to note that the generation of this signal probably marked the recent low at $102 as the bottom. Consequently, the SKI structure has turned bullish, suggesting a shift in market sentiment and potential for further upward movement.
New/Jan12: It appears that the correction has concluded. The next target on the upside is $112. Probably by mid-March.
TLT, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 37 days, +6.55% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $96.52)
NEW/Jan10: Indeed, the 92-96 buy signal did mark the high, and the ongoing correction is now approaching the point where a 16-20 buy signal is likely to be generated. The setup suggests that the 16-20 buy signal might be followed by a 92-96 sell-buy signal sequence, potentially indicating the conclusion of the correction and the start of a bull market. This would align with the equities bull market and the potential bull market in precious metals therefore making it worth closely monitoring.
UCO (crude oil ETF), 16-20 crossed to BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true) (also, 16-20 on BUY > to SELL 28.57/+6.29% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $26.88)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
NEW/Sep21: The price action suggests that a correction might be due soon, if it hasn't already begun.
NEW/Oct04: The correction is now fully underway, with an initial target around the $28 mark.
NEW/Oct20: The correction was over after $28 was almost hit. I have no idea where this is going. The geopolitical situation says higher but if the recession hits then it is lower. The SKI constellation is bullish but despite the geopolitical turmoil the recent high is still holding. I am just watching now.
NEW/Nov01: The pattern is shaping up as some kind of a top. $30-31 is support.
NEW/Dec08: 218-222 sold and 92-96 sold as well. Appears like the support has given up so longer-term I expect the support at $21-22 to be tested. I might try a long position at that level.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 42 days, +13.77% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to NOT SELL 28.6/-9.15% or lower; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $31.48)
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
NEW/Nov20: I am worried about the Aussie uranium stocks not following the USA counterparts' breakout. I am 50% long.
NEW/Dec14: It appears that Aussie stocks have potentially reached the bottom of the correction. I've added to my position, and now I'm 75% long, with all positions in Aussie stocks (DYL, BOE, BMN, PDN, AGE).
NEW/Jan12: The price fell short of selling the 35-39 index by one day. Instead, it surged strongly to break through the recent high which is typical bull market behaviour. I am happy with my position and letting it run for now. However, the $32 level could be a strong resistance for a while.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 18 days, -1.03%; run pattern in-progress 1D/1U/+2.01%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $9.64)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has placed the SKI configuration of the USERX index in a bullish position, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. Nevertheless, several significant issues need consideration. The technical analysis (TA) setup is not favourable due to a major resistance level dating back to the breakdown in 2011, which is located at $10.28. In the short term, the likelihood of surpassing this resistance may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970 and the USERX price can stay above $9.2, it's not unreasonable to expect USERX to reach the $11-$11.5 range by March 2024. Currently, the support level for USERX stands at around $9.2 and is on the rise. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $8.2 or possibly lower.
NEW/Dec29: The price has once again failed at the $10.28 resistance level, and keeps range trading between $9.2 and $10.28. As long as the 92-96 buy signal remains intact, the bullish case remains strong. In the short term, it seems that a correction may be necessary to alleviate overbought conditions. However, in the medium term, the overall pressure appears to be on the upside.
NEW/Jan03:The correction is ongoing, with the price moving towards a 16-20 buy signal. If this signal is generated, the same scenarios that apply to the ASA chart will also apply here. In any case, support is around $9.2, and resistance is at $10.28. I am waiting to see which way the price will break, as this will determine the next intermediate movement.
NEW/Jan09: The correction is nearing the 16-20 index buy signal. Ideally, after generating the 16-20 buy signal, the decline will extend to trigger the 92-96 index sell signal without activating the 35-39 index sell signal. If the price then reverses, a minor rally could generate a valid 92-96 buy signal. This might rekindle the possibility of eventually breaking through the crucial $10.28 level, potentially evolving into a bull market later this year. The likelihood of this scenario is reasonable, as long as the gold price remains above $1970, but it would gain momentum if gold can consistently surpass $2100.
If the 35-39 index sell signal is generated, the true bull scenario will be invalidated. However, there may be bullish signals later in the year if the price can hold above the October low ($8.22). In any case, the key short-term levels to monitor are support at $9.2 and resistance at $10.28.
NEW/Jan12: Today's strong rally decreases the likelihood of a 92-96 SELL signal being the next one to trigger. While still possible, it now demands precise maneuvering, which isn't common. If Thursday marked the bottom, we might observe a gradual sideways or upward movement throughout the month, and possibly beyond, aiming to reach the $10.28 mark once more. This could potentially set the stage for a breakout and a move to $11.5 and beyond for the remainder of the year. Currently, my bias leans towards a bullish outlook. However, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 indices and breaching the $9.2 support at this stage would remain bearish, potentially causing a drop to at least $8.8, and possibly even lower.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 37 days, +4.97% (also , 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $6950)
*comment/Nov01: After a double sell signal from the 16-20/35-39 indices, the price began to rise, triggering the 92-96 index buy. However, this was quickly followed by a sell. If this marks the peak, the outlook isn't promising. Yet, if the price manages to stay above $6700, a genuine bullish 92-96 signal could emerge. If it fails to do so, a double-sell signal will be activated. Still, as long as the price remains above $6400, a myriad of both bullish and bearish scenarios remain possible. We'll have to observe how it unfolds. Currently, I'm 30% long.
NEW/Nov03: A genuine 92-96 true bull buy signal has been activated, reinforcing the leadership role of Australian stocks in the gold market and affirming the breakout from the descending channel that started in June. The SKI structure supporting this signal is robust, though there's a caveat: a short-term increase in future back prices over the next three weeks might result in a sell/buy sequence before a stable 92-96 structure emerges.
Therefore, for those acting on today's signal, it would be prudent to set a stop loss at a close below $6671 (Thursday's low), rather than waiting for a 92-96 sell signal. This approach offers a more conservative risk management strategy in response to the potential volatility indicated by the SKI structure.
NEW/Nov10: My stop was hit on Thursday and, also, on Friday when the 92-96 true buy signal ended. The only thing I can say about this is that it looks bearish. A swift reversal and climb above $6700 could restore bullish signals, but currently, the market seems to lack momentum. Should the $6400 support level fail, it would signify an official entry into a bear market. I'm currently 30% long, but it appears this position may soon change to 0% given the unfolding market dynamics.
NEW/Nov16: $6400 level is still holding and so am I. Today a new 35-39 buy signal will be generated. I will cautiously add to my position today to roughly 50% long. A close under 6400 will cause me to sell all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov30: Today, a 92-96 buy signal was generated, aligning with the existing 35-39 buy signal, and the SKI structure supporting this is robust. The immediate target is now set at $7700. The $7700 mark is the red line between the bull and the bear. I am 75% long.
NEW/Dec03: I've reduced my position back to 50% following gold's failure at $2150. The Australian golds are trading within a sideways channel, but the SKI structure remains bullish and robust. I'm watching the $6600 support level closely, hoping it won't be breached. The next hurdle to clear before the bull market gains full momentum is the $7700 resistance level.
NEW/Jan12: I increased my position back to 75% on Friday's close. Bought some RMS and DEG. Will sell this 25% at the overhead resistance.
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