I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months) so from now on I will only post in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone!
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. Soon I will start posting my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 35 days, +9.72%; (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4769)
*Comment/Dec29: The S&P is currently exhibiting a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal marked the beginning of a rally that brought the price close to the old all-time high at $4818. While short-term overbought conditions could potentially lead to a correction, the long-term structure now appears to be bullish. However, at this moment, I'm not inclined to actively pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering reevaluating my position after a potential correction has occurred.
HUI, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 9 days, +1.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $243.31)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of a 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the HUI index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $245 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate HUI reaching $270 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for HUI is situated around $225 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $195.
NEW/Dec19: The market action today has been remarkable. The breach of the $245 resistance level is an important development, and now we need to see a follow-through to confirm this move. Additionally, the 218-222 index is in the process of generating a buy signal, which will enhance the likelihood of reaching the initial target at $270. With the current momentum (if confirmed), this could potentially happen earlier than previously anticipated, possibly by mid-January 2024. If this materializes, the next target at $300 might be within reach by March 2024. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
NEW/Dec29: As of now, none of the conditions (mentioned above) for a rapid ascent to $270 and beyond have been met. There hasn't been a substantial follow-through after the $245 level was breached, and furthermore, the gold price has faced rejection once again at $2070-2080. It appears that a short-term correction may currently be in progress.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 37 days, +10.0% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $16825)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal aligning with the breakthrough of the resistance line enhances its potential impact. An all-time high has been achieved, but in the short term, the price appears to be significantly overextended and possibly in overbought territory.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 28 days, +12.17% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $2027)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently in a bullish configuration, demonstrating a robust SKI bullish structure. The recent alignment of the 35-39 buy signal with a 92-96 buy signal, coupled with the breakthrough of resistance lines, strengthens its potential impact. Unlike the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq, the Russell is still some distance away from its all-time high. Nevertheless, it has been the best performer among them recently, which could suggest a broadening of the stocks participating in this bull market—a bullish sign in itself. However, in the short term, this rally appears to have advanced rapidly and may have become overextended. A healthy correction might be in order, to restore balance.
$TNX - 10Y yield, last signal 92-96 SELL, 9 days, -2.23% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.87%)
*comment/DEC15: The recent 92-96 bull market has come to an end. Since the 2020 bottom, there have been three significant rising waves, each marked by a true bull 92-96 signal. The last one pushed yields to a new high at 5%, but it eventually reversed, resulting in a loss. This is a sign of the long-term trend reversing. Currently, I anticipate the formation of a bottom shortly. However, I don't expect the subsequent rally to surpass 4.2-4.4%. Beyond this point, I anticipate that the decline will resume. In the medium term, potential downside targets could be 3.4%, 3.2%, and ultimately 2.8%. By March 2024, yields should be in the 3.2%-3.4% range, and if we reach 2.8%, it might happen towards the end of 2024.
XAU, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 9 days, +1.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $125.69)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of a 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the XAU index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $126 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate HUI reaching $145 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for XAU is situated around $110 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be in the $95-$100 area.
NEW/Dec19: The market action today has been remarkable. The breach of the $126 resistance level is an important development, and now we need to see a follow-through to confirm this move. Additionally, the 218-222 index is in the process of generating a buy signal, which will enhance the likelihood of reaching the initial target at $138. With the current momentum (if confirmed), this could potentially happen earlier than previously anticipated, possibly by mid-January 2024. If this materializes, the next target at $165 might be within reach by March 2024. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
NEW/Dec29: As of now, none of the conditions (mentioned above) for a rapid ascent to $138 and beyond have been met. There hasn't been a substantial follow-through after the $126 level was breached, and furthermore, the gold price has faced rejection once again at $2070-2080. It appears that a short-term correction may currently be in progress to at least touch/breach the 16-20 index.
ASA, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 27 days, +5.91% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 15.61/+3.65% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $16.00)
*comment/Dec15: Following today's 92-96 buy signal, the SKI structure for ASA presents a bullish alignment. However, there are some noteworthy issues to consider. In comparison to other gold indices, ASA seems to lack significant short-term momentum. In SKI terms, this is evident as the 35-39 index seems to have more influence than the 92-96 signal at the moment. While the SKI structure is relatively solid, the technical analysis (TA) setup is not particularly favourable. This is primarily due to the way the price interacts with the resistance line, which resembles the formation of a short-term peak. To confirm the 92-96 buy signal, it appears that a 218-222 buy signal will be necessary for the price to close above the trendline, which is currently around $16. This confirmation would strengthen the argument for a sustained bullish move, potentially propelling the price towards the $18.5 target. As long as the spot gold price remains above $1970, such a scenario appears plausible. However, for a more enduring medium-term rally, it's likely that spot gold needs to maintain levels above $2100, serving as a critical catalyst for continued upward movement.
NEW/Dec19: The close today at precisely $16 marks a potential breakout, but it's crucial to see a follow-through to confirm this move. As mentioned earlier, the structure of ASA's SKI configuration appears solid and somewhat distinct from other gold indices, which is an encouraging sign for the sector, especially given ASA's track record of marking significant market turns in recent years. While the 35-39 index has been in charge (on the path), now with the 92-96 on board, everything seems to be aligning for a significant bullish run. The first target is set at $18.5, but the ascent shouldn't necessarily stop there. There's potential for the price to reach $21.5, possibly by March 2024, if this bullish trend has indeed started. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
NEW/Dec29: At present, none of the conditions mentioned earlier for a swift climb to $18.5 and beyond seem to have materialized. There hasn't been a significant follow-through after the $16 level was breached, and the gold price has once again failed around $2070-2080. It appears that a short-term correction may be underway, possibly testing the $14-14.5 range. In the event of the 92-96 index selling during this correction, it would be preferable to avoid seeing the 35-39 sell signal emerge before the 92-96 buy signal returns. The current support zone is approximately between $13.5 and $14, with resistance remaining at $16.
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 97 days, +65.68% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $43673
*comment/Oct25: BTC broke out of the 6 months trading range ($25K-$32K). The upside target is 45K.
NEW/Dec08: The price is nearing the $45,000 target, but I anticipate one more push, likely reaching around $48,000, followed by a correction to test the breakout level at $32,000.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, notXXed (true), 12 days, +4.31% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 crossed to BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $37.5)
NEW/Dec29: COPX is in a bullish configuration. In the broader context, since the 2021 peak, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle with a horizontal resistance zone between $42 and $44, and a rising support level currently at around $35. The presence of both the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals, in addition to the S&P 500 bull market, indicates support for the price to potentially reach the resistance area within the coming 4 weeks ($42-$44). In the short term, it's worth noting that the recent 92-96 buy signal might have marked the commencement of a minor correction.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 7 days, -0.45% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $101.38)
*comment/Dec29: DXY is presently demonstrating a bearish SKI and technical analysis (TA) setup. However, it's important to note that the price is currently positioned just above a long-term support level that dates back to the 2011 low. Given that the current TA indicators are all in a deep oversold territory, it's unlikely that this support will be breached in the short term. Additionally, there's a possibility of a short-term dollar rally, potentially targeting the $105-106 range. As part of my strategy, I may consider taking a short position in gold during this dollar rally, which can also serve as a hedge against my long gold positions.
GDX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 9 days, +0.91% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to BUY 30.41/-1.93% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $31.01)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the GDX index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $32 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate GDX reaching $35 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for GDX is situated around $27 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be at the $23 level.
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has placed the SKI configuration of the GDXJ index in a bullish position, suggesting a solid foundation for potential upward movement. Unlike other gold indices, this buy signal represents a 'true bull' signal, implying the possibility of a long-term bull market. However, similar to other indices, there are still significant resistance levels that must be surpassed to confirm a bullish trend, particularly the $41 level, indicated by the 218-222 index buy signal. In the short term, the likelihood of this occurring may not be very high, particularly in light of the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. Nonetheless, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to expect GDXJ to reach $51 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for GDXJ is around $35 and is gradually increasing. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $28. Monitoring the price action closely, especially concerning key support levels, will be important in assessing the market's future direction.
GLD, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 48 days, +4.48% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $191.17)
*comment/Oct20: GLD flipped to a bullish constellation with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades but it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active (218-222/439-443/660-664).
The SKI structure of today's double buy signal is sound but there are caveats. A 16-20 sell signal came in between the 35-39 buy and the 92-96 buy which somewhat diminishes the strength of the signal. The stop on this 92-96 buy signal is falling for the next two weeks and if the price falls back below $181 (former resistance) there is a danger that the signal will end quickly. After about two weeks from today, the 16-20 index back prices will rise above the 92-96 index back prices and provide some sort of 'protection'.
After a strong move like the one seen in the past two weeks, which can be categorized as an impulse wave, it is often the case that we get a quick correction to sell/buy the 92-96 index to morphe the signal into a true bull signal while scaring everyone out. I am not predicting that but if it happens the key is to generate a new 92-96 buy before the 35-39 index sells. The key seems to be not to fall under $181 ($1960 spot), and if we do then not for more than a couple of days.
NEW/Nov10: The failure to sustain the $181 ($1960 spot) level is concerning. The immediate target shifts to $175, and if it fails to hold, it suggests a possible breakdown in gold prices. In such a scenario, I am prepared to liquidate all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov16: The initial correction following the 92-96 buy signal appears to be a classic test of the breakout so far. The uptrend line is holding at $175 ($1920 spot), as is the major resistance/support level at $181 ($1960 spot). While we're not completely in the clear yet, the situation is increasingly looking more robust with each passing day. However, the issue is the performance of gold stocks. Their relative weakness compared to the metal itself needs to stop soon for a more cohesive bullish picture.
NEW/Nov30: The test of breakout proved successful, leading to a sustained rally. The 92-96 buy signal has held, lending a solid foundation to the SKI structure. Moving forward, the $180 ($2000 spot) price level should act as support. In my view, a breakthrough above $191 ($2070 spot) could potentially trigger a short squeeze, which in turn might propel gold price toward $2200 and possibly higher.
NEW/Dec01: We've reached $191 ($2070 spot). This level could either represent a peak or, alternatively, we might see a gap up on Monday, potentially leading to a rally towards $2200. While daily indicators signal an overbought condition, the weekly indicators do not reflect the same.
In the Commitments of Traders (COTs) reports, commercials are at maximum short positions, and large speculators are at maximum long, but the positions for small speculators remain neutral. Given this setup, a push towards $2100 might be necessary before any correction occurs, to consolidate the gains we've recently seen. My bias is bullish short-term but medium term we need some cooling off or this rally might become too fast too soon.
NEW/Dec08: A cooling-off phase, mentioned above, is indeed occurring, and the key question is how deep this correction will go. According to the SKI structure, as long as the 92-96 level remains intact, the correction can persist. In numerical terms, this translates to around $176 (approximately $1900 in spot price) under the condition that the decline does not escalate into a full-fledged crash. A more favourable scenario would be if the breakout level becomes a supportive floor at $181 (around $1960 in spot price). In this case, the correction would resemble a test of the breakout level from above.
NEW/Dec29: The price of gold is currently maintaining its position above the $181 level ($1960 spot). However, there appears to be a diminishing momentum, and the likelihood of a break above $2100 in the short term seems low. As I previously mentioned, as long as the SKI 92-96 buy signal is in control, there's no immediate concern for the bullish scenario. Nevertheless, in the short term, it appears that more consolidation or correction may be necessary before the $2100 area can be convincingly breached.
SLV, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 8 days, -1.13% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $21.78)
*comment/Nov30: The SLV chart has transitioned into a bullish configuration, marked by today's 92-96 true buy signal. The SKI structure of this signal appears vulnerable in the short term, yet it seems more robust for the longer term. After a period of brief consolidation or correction, there's a strong likelihood of witnessing a gap up over the $26 resistance level (spot price), potentially leading to a rapid short squeeze.
NEW/Dec08: The 92-96 buy signal marked a high which was expected to a degree but the ensuing crash and eventually a 92-96 sell signal were not. The action of the last few days did not bode well for the SKI structure and the possibility of buying the 92-96 index back for a long-lasting bull market. The ongoing decline must halt promptly, preventing the 35-39 index from triggering a sell signal and mitigating the likelihood of further significant losses. If the 35-39 sell signal does materialize, there remains the potential for an extremely bullish scenario, marked by a triple buy signal, if the price rebounds and surges back towards the $23 range.
NEW/Dec19: The potential 35-39 sell signal was narrowly avoided at the last moment, and now a 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated. The signal is accompanied by a 218-222 buy signal. The SKI structure is not ideal, and these signals will require a price increase beyond the $23 level to be confirmed. Currently, support is situated around $21, and the situation appears to be at a crossroads. In the next few weeks, either this support level will be breached, or the confirmation of the bullish signal will take place.
TIP, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 28 days, +2.6% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL > to BUY 107.86/+0.34% or higher; current $107.49)
*comment/Dec14: The target range of $107-$108 has indeed been achieved. Today's 92-96 buy signal is likely indicating a temporary high, but it's important to note that the generation of this signal probably marked the recent low at $102 as the bottom. Consequently, the SKI structure has turned bullish, suggesting a shift in market sentiment and potential for further upward movement.
TLT, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 28 days, +9.15% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $98.88)
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 92-96 SELL, 16 days, +3.0% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $26.1)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
NEW/Sep21: The price action suggests that a correction might be due soon, if it hasn't already begun.
NEW/Oct04: The correction is now fully underway, with an initial target around the $28 mark.
NEW/Oct20: The correction was over after $28 was almost hit. I have no idea where this is going. The geopolitical situation says higher but if the recession hits then it is lower. The SKI constellation is bullish but despite the geopolitical turmoil the recent high is still holding. I am just watching now.
NEW/Nov01: The pattern is shaping up as some kind of a top. $30-31 is support.
NEW/Dec08: 218-222 sold and 92-96 sold as well. Appears like the support has given up so longer-term I expect the support at $21-22 to be tested. I might try a long position at that level.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 33 days, +0.07% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 28.94/+4.51% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.69)
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
NEW/Nov20: I am worried about the Aussie uranium stocks not following the USA counterparts' breakout. I am 50% long.
NEW/Dec14: It appears that Aussie stocks have potentially reached the bottom of the correction. I've added to my position, and now I'm 75% long, with all positions in Aussie stocks (DYL, BOE, BMN, PDN, AGE).
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 9 days, +1.54%; run pattern in-progress 4U/2D/-0.96%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $9.89)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has placed the SKI configuration of the USERX index in a bullish position, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. Nevertheless, several significant issues need consideration. The technical analysis (TA) setup is not favourable due to a major resistance level dating back to the breakdown in 2011, which is located at $10.28. In the short term, the likelihood of surpassing this resistance may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970 and the USERX price can stay above $9.2, it's not unreasonable to expect USERX to reach the $11-$11.5 range by March 2024. Currently, the support level for USERX stands at around $9.2 and is on the rise. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $8.2 or possibly lower.
NEW/Dec29: The price has once again failed at the $10.28 resistance level, and keeps range trading between $9.2 and $10.28. As long as the 92-96 buy signal remains intact, the bullish case remains strong. In the short term, it seems that a correction may be necessary to alleviate overbought conditions. However, in the medium term, the overall pressure appears to be on the upside.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 28 days, +11.27% (also , 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $7367)
*comment/Nov01: After a double sell signal from the 16-20/35-39 indices, the price began to rise, triggering the 92-96 index buy. However, this was quickly followed by a sell. If this marks the peak, the outlook isn't promising. Yet, if the price manages to stay above $6700, a genuine bullish 92-96 signal could emerge. If it fails to do so, a double-sell signal will be activated. Still, as long as the price remains above $6400, a myriad of both bullish and bearish scenarios remain possible. We'll have to observe how it unfolds. Currently, I'm 30% long.
NEW/Nov03: A genuine 92-96 true bull buy signal has been activated, reinforcing the leadership role of Australian stocks in the gold market and affirming the breakout from the descending channel that started in June. The SKI structure supporting this signal is robust, though there's a caveat: a short-term increase in future back prices over the next three weeks might result in a sell/buy sequence before a stable 92-96 structure emerges.
Therefore, for those acting on today's signal, it would be prudent to set a stop loss at a close below $6671 (Thursday's low), rather than waiting for a 92-96 sell signal. This approach offers a more conservative risk management strategy in response to the potential volatility indicated by the SKI structure.
NEW/Nov10: My stop was hit on Thursday and, also, on Friday when the 92-96 true buy signal ended. The only thing I can say about this is that it looks bearish. A swift reversal and climb above $6700 could restore bullish signals, but currently, the market seems to lack momentum. Should the $6400 support level fail, it would signify an official entry into a bear market. I'm currently 30% long, but it appears this position may soon change to 0% given the unfolding market dynamics.
NEW/Nov16: $6400 level is still holding and so am I. Today a new 35-39 buy signal will be generated. I will cautiously add to my position today to roughly 50% long. A close under 6400 will cause me to sell all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov30: Today, a 92-96 buy signal was generated, aligning with the existing 35-39 buy signal, and the SKI structure supporting this is robust. The immediate target is now set at $7700. The $7700 mark is the red line between the bull and the bear. I am 75% long.
NEW/Dec03: I've reduced my position back to 50% following gold's failure at $2150. The Australian golds are trading within a sideways channel, but the SKI structure remains bullish and robust. I'm watching the $6600 support level closely, hoping it won't be breached. The next hurdle to clear before the bull market gains full momentum is the $7700 resistance level.
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