I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months) so from now on I will only post in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone!
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. Soon I will start posting my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 25 days, +8.56%; (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4719)
*Comment/Nov16: The S&P is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The bottom was indicated by the 92-96 sell signal, followed by a swift rise in price that triggered a new 92-96 buy signal, breaking through the downtrend line in the process. While the price action seems bullish, the SKI structure is less than ideal. The July high of $4607 appears to be a target, and even the all-time high (ATH) at $4818 seems attainable. However, I'm not inclined to pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering the possibility of initiating another short position if the 92-96 index issues a sell signal again. We'll see...
NEW/Dec01: The target of $4600 has been achieved. The current momentum is strong, and if the price remains stable in the upcoming days without a significant downturn, it seems likely that the 92-96 buy signal will be sustained. In that case, the all-time high is the next target.
NEW/Dec08:The likelihood of the 92-96 sell signal is diminishing day by day. Depending on the market's performance in the next few days, I am contemplating a long position to target the all-time high (ATH) of $4818 (but probably won't).
HUI, last signal 16-20 SELL, 14 days, +3.4% (after a double buy 16-20/35-39) (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > to SELL 226.65/-5.18% or lower; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 234.14/-2.05% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $239.03)
*comment/Nov01: The HUI index is currently in a bearish configuration. It was once again repelled by the pivotal $230 resistance level, and the unwelcome double sell signal 16-20/35-39 has emerged. While there was a brief reprieve when the 35-39 index bought back, it has rapidly sold once more today. This trend is concerning, especially as gold is poised for a breakout and equities are weakening. I've been anticipating a divergence between the stock market and gold stocks for three years, but the present movement isn't promising. For any bullish outlooks to remain viable, the correction shouldn't dip below the $205-210 range.
NEW/Nov03: The lowest point of the correction currently stands at $213.15, aligning with a potential bullish outcome. Yet, for confirmation of this trend, a breakthrough above the $230 mark is necessary.
NEW/Nov10: Breaching the recent low signifies another bearish development. With the 16-20 buy a double buy scenario is now activated (with 35-39) but frankly the lack of upside momentum and consistent stalling around $230 suggests that in the coming weeks, revisiting the trendline near $190 is the most likely scenario.
NEW/Nov20: The scenario I previously deemed most probable did not unfold. A 35-39 buy signal has been generated, yet for me to classify this as a breakout, the price still needs to surpass $230. We've encountered this situation four times since September, so it's a case of 'wait and see' to determine if this instance will be different.
NEW/Nov24: The 16-20 sold. It better not mark a top.
NEW/Nov30: The 16-20/35-39 double buy signal worked perfectly. The price has successfully breached the $230 resistance level. Now, the focus shifts to a target of $270. However, to solidify these recent gains, a 92-96 buy signal is necessary. Such a signal would be on the path of trades and would be a strong bullish indicator. Failure to secure this signal could swiftly transform the current double buy into a double sell, rendering the market outlook unclear.
NEW/Dec08: The price falling back toward the $230 area doesn't look constructive if a 92-96 buy doesn't materialize beforehand. It all looks like rejection at present. We aim to avoid a 35-39 sell signal, so the decline must halt at this point. If it does, and the 92-96 buy signal eventually materializes, the overall scenario will resemble a test of the breakout level from above.
NEW/Dec14: In the usual market fashion, a reversal occurred just as a 35-39 sell signal was on the verge of forming. Currently, the recent decline closely resembles a test of the breakout level. To further affirm the potential for an upward trend, the generation of a 92-96 buy signal remains imperative. Additionally, the price must sustain itself above $230 for an extended duration to foster confidence in the broader bullish trend. I'm not expecting any significant upward movements until the spot gold price can rise and maintain levels above $2100 for an extended period. However, if a 92-96 buy signal is generated and is followed by a 218-221 buy signal, the next probable target is $270.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 27 days, +8.12% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $16537)
*comment/Nov16: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal coincided with the breakthrough of the resistance line, which strengthens its potential impact. An all-time high now appears to be a likely target. Despite this bullish trend, I am not pursuing it nor am I considering shorting as long as the price stays above $15200.
NEW/Dec08: The price is currently less than 5% away from the all-time high (ATH). However, indicators are signalling overbought conditions with significant divergences, and the COT positioning shows crowded bullish sentiment. I plan to initiate a short position once the ATH is reached, especially if the divergences persist.
NEW/Dec14: The price is currently just 1% away from the all-time high (ATH). From a technical perspective, everything appears bullish, and the SKI structure is sound. However, the crowded long positioning in the COT data is a deterrent for me when it comes to going long. Simultaneously, the SKI structure is preventing me from considering a short position so, for the time being, I'm refraining from taking any action in the market.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 18 days, +10.7% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL > to NOT BUY 1985/-0.75% or lower; current $2000)
*comment/Nov20: The Russell chart displays a mixed configuration, 35-39 bullish, 92-96 bearish. The price action has been sideways inside a trading range ($1650-$2000) since May 2022. The short-term bias (next few weeks) is probably bullish but I am looking to go short if we reach the upper boundary of the mentioned trading range.
NEW/Dec14: We've reached the $2000 mark, which has been an unyielding resistance since August 2022. In the next few days, the likely generation of both a 92-96 and a 218-222 buy signal may signify some form of a top. The critical question is whether this will be an intermediate top or merely a temporary, short-term peak before the bull market gathers strength. Depending on the evolving market conditions, I might consider initiating a short position next week, but solely as a short-term scalp trade. What's giving me pause is the prevalence of pessimistic sentiment or "bearish views" across the internet, which suggests that it may not yet be the opportune time for a significant short position.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 98 days, -0.98% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 4.07/+3.56% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $3.93)
*comment/Nov01: The 10-year yield (10yy) is in a bull market. It appears a short-term correction has been initiated, potentially touching or breaking the 16-20 and 35-39 index levels (4.4-4.6%). Nonetheless, the objective for this move remains roughly 5.3%.
NEW/Nov03: The price entered my correction target area. The support should kick in soon otherwise we have seen the top. My upside target is still 5.3%.
NEW/Nov16: The 35-39 index sold therefore suggesting that the interim top has been established. However, given that the yields market is in a bullish configuration, this could also signal the end of the current correction. I anticipate finding support in the 4.2%-4.4% range. While I still view 5.3% as the target, it seems improbable that a significant upward move will commence before December.
NEW/Nov30: The correction has touched the lower limit of my anticipated bottoming range at 4.23%. While there are some indications of support, I remain uncertain about whether yields have reached their bottom. More signs of bottoming are needed to provide convincing evidence of this trend.
NEW/Dec01: Friday's close at a new low for this correction phase supports my suspicion that a bottom has yet to form. Currently, the 92-96 index back prices are around the 4% mark, coinciding with the 200-day MAV. If this support level is targeted and breached but not promptly regained, it could signify the end of the bull run that began in January 2022. This means that I will have to abandon my 5.3% target. Additionally (if the breach happens), the very long-term support line, originating from the low in August 2020, would still hold, pointing at around 2.8% as the long-term downside target.
NEW/Dec14: The yields are currently below 4%, a level that I previously indicated as crucial to altering my perspective on the potential target of 5.3%. Now, I anticipate the formation of a bottom shortly. However, I don't expect the subsequent rally to surpass 4.2-4.4%. Beyond this point, I anticipate that the decline will resume. In the medium term, potential downside targets could be 3.4%, 3.2%, and ultimately 2.8%. The time frame for this scenario to unfold is March 2024.
XAU, last signal 16-20 SELL, 15 days, +6.5% (after a double buy 16-20/35-39)(also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > to SELL 112.89/-9.14% or lower; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 122.55/-1.37% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $124.25)
*comment/Nov01: The XAU index is in a bearish configuration. The important resistance level at $120 has again rejected the XAU price rise and the unwanted double sell signal 16-20/35-39 has transpired. The correction shouldn't go lower than $105-110 in order to preserve bullish scenarios.
NEW/Nov03: The lowest point of the correction currently stands at $109.08, aligning with a potential bullish outcome. Yet, for confirmation of this trend, a breakthrough above the $120 mark is necessary.
NEW/Nov10: Breaching the recent low signifies another bearish development. With the 16-20 buy a double buy scenario is now activated (with 35-39) but frankly, the lack of upside momentum and consistent failure to generate a 35-39 BUY signal suggests that in the coming weeks, revisiting the trendline near $95-$100 is the most likely scenario.
NEW/Nov16: Contrary to my initial expectation, it seems a double buy scenario involving the 16-20/35-39 indices is unfolding. Nonetheless, for this to be confirmed (if 35-39 buys tomorrow), the key resistance zone around $116-118 needs to be convincingly breached (16-20 sell signal).
NEW/Nov20: 35-39 index generated a buy signal so a double buy scenario is now activated.
NEW/Nov24: The 16-20 sold, as expected and needed for a bullish scenario but the $116-118 range still needs to be broken through.
NEW/Dec14:In typical market fashion, a reversal occurred just as a 35-39 sell signal was about to form. Currently, the recent decline closely resembles a test of the breakout level. To further validate the potential for an upward trend, the generation of a 92-96 buy signal remains crucial. Additionally, the price must hold above $130 for an extended period to instil confidence in the broader bullish trend. I'm not anticipating any significant upward movements until the spot gold price can rise and maintain levels above $2100 for an extended period. However, if a 92-96 buy signal is generated, followed by a 218-221 buy signal, the next likely target is $145.
ASA, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 17 days, +8.09% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 14.98/-2.54% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $15.37)
*comment/Aug04: ASA currently presents a bearish configuration. Should prices decline further, they would drop out of a crucial rising channel that they've only recently managed to reclaim(around the $13.5 mark). Exiting this upward trend could bear negative implications, which becomes even more significant given recent shifts in the equity markets. While there's potential for a bullish rebound if the upcoming 16-20 buy signal marks the bottom and is succeeded by a 35-39 buy signal, current indicators don't hint at the likelihood of such a scenario unfolding.
NEW/Nov02: ASA is the only gold index declining today, that is not a good sign. Such action indicates that the most probable next signal will be a 16-20 buy, which could take the price down to around the last low of approximately $12.50. From there, we'll have to assess the situation further.
NEW/Nov03: Friday's surge shifted the price trajectory, distancing it from an anticipated 16-20 buy signal (that could have suggested more bearishness). Simultaneously, the break through the existing bearish descending channel hints at an impending 35-39 buy signal, potentially preceding a 16-20 buy. This shift could be signalling the formation of a market bottom. For this potential trend reversal to be confirmed, however, the price needs to break the $15.5 resistance barrier. Should today's session exhibit a continuation of Friday's momentum, I will consider this a start of a move towards that $15.5 target.
NEW/Nov07: The anticipated follow-through from Friday's movement did not occur. The price is once again faltering at the important 50-day moving average. It seems that $12.0-12.5 has re-emerged as the target. Evidently, it's not yet time for gold to ascend.
NEW/Nov16: Contrary to what I had anticipated, it now seems more likely that a 35-39 buy signal will be generated instead of the price dropping to the $12-12.5 range. Ideally, the 35-39 buy signal should precede the 16-20 sell signal to create a double buy scenario, but it appears they might occur simultaneously. While concurrent signals often indicate market tops, in this instance, I remain cautiously optimistic. Should the 35-39 signal materialize, the $15.5 level would emerge as an immediate upside target.
NEW/Nov20: The 35-39 index has generated a buy signal while the 16-20 has simultaneously sold. As I've mentioned previously, although concurrent signals can often suggest market tops, in this specific case, I maintain a cautiously optimistic view. The immediate target for an upward movement is now set at the $15.5 level (or 92-96 buy signal).
Today's relative strength of ASA in comparison to other gold indices is noteworthy. Given that ASA-generated trading signals have been the most accurate in the gold sector over the past few years, I interpret this as a bullish indicator. However, if this signal turns out to be inaccurate, it would signify a highly bearish development.
NEW/Nov30: The 35-39 buy signal has proven to be accurate. Currently, the price is nearing the $15.5 target along with the 92-96 buy signal. The impending 92-96 buy is anticipated to have a solid bullish structure, although a minor correction might be on the horizon. This expected correction has the potential to evolve the existing 35-39 buy signal into a true bull 92-96 buy signal but is not necessary for long-term bullishness.
NEW/Dec08: Currently, the 92-96 index is resisting a buy signal. However, if the price can maintain levels above $14 over the next two weeks, a buy signal may eventually trigger. The ASA price action and setup appear more constructive than the rest of the sector. Considering that the ASA chart gave the most accurate signals in recent years this is encouraging.
NEW/Dec13: Seems like the 92-96 index is slowly giving up resistance. A potential 92-96 buy signal generation would greatly improve the probability of $15.5 resistance to be broken through. If that happens the next immediate target is $18.5 and ultimately $21.5 to reach the upper boundary of the giant flag pattern that has been developing since the 2020 top.
NEW/Dec14: In comparison to other gold indices, ASA appears to lack significant short-term momentum. A 92-96 buy signal is likely to emerge tomorrow, and the SKI structure will be relatively stable. However, the TA setup is not particularly favourable due to the way the price interacts with the resistance line, which resembles the formation of a short-term peak. It appears that a 218-222 buy signal will be necessary for the price to close above the trendline (around $16) and confirm the 92-96 buy signal. This confirmation would bolster the argument for a sustained bullish ascent, potentially pushing the price towards the $18.5 target. As long as the spot gold price remains above $1970, such a scenario seems plausible. However, for a lasting medium-term rally, spot gold likely needs to maintain levels above $2100.
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 79 days, +63.3% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $43046
*comment/Oct25: BTC broke out of the 6 months trading range ($25K-$32K). The upside target is 45K.
NEW/Dec08: The price is nearing the $45,000 target, but I anticipate one more push, likely reaching around $48,000, followed by a correction to test the breakout level at $32,000.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, notXXed (true), 2 days, +3.37% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $37.16)
*comment/Dec14: COPX is currently in a mixed configuration, with a 35-39 bullish signal and a 92-95 bearish signal. In the broader context, since the 2021 peak, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle with a horizontal resistance zone between $42 and $44, and a rising support level currently at around $35. The presence of the 35-39 buy signal and S and P 500 bull market suggests support for the price to potentially reach the resistance area in the coming 4 weeks.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 35-39 SELL, 20 days, -2.33% (while on 92-96 BUY) (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $101.94)
*comment/Sep01: DXY is currently in a bullish constellation, with the price broken out of the downtrend line that emanates from the September 2022 top. The breakout has been marked by xxed double buy signal 35-39/92-96 with the path of trades on the 35-39 index. Having said that the signal still needs a confirmation by rising over the $104.7 resistance level. If successful it seems that $105.39 is the first target, then $107.18.
NEW/Oct02: We are nearing the second target. If this aligns with a 218-222 buy signal, it will either mark a peak or an acceleration point. My inclination is towards a peak, but we'll see.
NEW/Oct09: 218-222 buy signal was generated and it marked a top so far. I have been short DXY since the close of Friday's session. The stop loss is Friday's intraday top.
NEW/Oct13: After marking the top with its 218-222 buy signal, the DXY underwent a sell-off and generated a 218-222 sell signal and is now on the brink of buying it back. Although the current action appears bullish, a breakthrough beyond the recent high is essential for validation. I am still short (by using USD/CHF pair).
NEW/Oct20: The 218-222 index generated a buy signal as was anticipated above but as I said before, although the current action appears bullish, a breakthrough beyond the recent high ($106.79 minimum but 107.35 better) is essential for validation. I am still short by holding a long CHF/USD position. Bough $1.0991, moved stop to $1.1103 now.
NEW/Oct25: I took the profit on my short position.
NEw/Nov03: The 16-20 index initially sold but then quickly reversed to a buy, indicating significant resistance around the previously mentioned $107.35 level. Meanwhile, the 35-39 index is moving towards a sell signal. If the 35-39 does end up selling, it might imply that the recent peak was indeed the top. In this case, most probably the yields topped as well.
NEW/Nov16: The 35-39 index has triggered a sell signal, which, as previously mentioned, heightens the likelihood that we've reached an intermediate top. The downside target is now positioned around $101. It also seems probable that bond yields have reached their peak (intermediate).
NEW/Dec08: I continue to anticipate the downside target of $101 to be reached. The current short-term rally, I attribute primarily to technical factors, notably the achievement of the 200-day moving average (MAV). I think that the continued strong decline in the 10-year yield supports my stand.
NEW/Dec14: The price is indeed approaching the $101 target, as anticipated. This marks a significant long-term support area dating back to the 2011 low. The impending selling signals from both the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes around this level will mark a crucial juncture. Whether it results in a bottom or a breakdown remains to be seen, but my bias is leaning towards a breakdown, although it may take some time to materialize. Monitoring the price action around this level will be key to understanding the market's next move.
GDX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 14 days, +5.1% (after a double BUY 16-20/35-39)(also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 29.56/-5.59% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.31)
*comment/Nov01: GDX is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index has sold, alongside the 16-20 and the 218-222. This isn't an encouraging sign. For bullish prospects to remain viable, the correction shouldn't dip below $27. There's potential for a bullish rebound if the upcoming 16-20 buy signal marks the bottom and is then succeeded by a 35-39 buy signal.
NEW/Nov03: Friday's strong increase in price distanced it from a potential 16-20 buy signal, which would have indicated bearishness. Conversely, an upcoming 35-39 buy signal could be a bullish indicator and may signify that the recent low is the long-term bottom. In this scenario, the first target for an upward move would be around the $32 mark.
NEW/Nov07: The expected continuation of Friday's momentum didn't take place. Prices are struggling once again at the significant 50-day moving average, pointing to $27 as the renewed downside target. The timing for a rise in gold prices doesn't seem right yet. The outlook could shift to a more positive stance if the 16-20 buy signal marks a low, followed by a 35-39 buy signal on an upward trend.
NEW/Nov16: Contrary to my initial expectation, it seems a double buy scenario involving the 16-20/35-39 indices is unfolding. Nonetheless, for this to be confirmed (if 35-39 buys), the key resistance zone around $30-31 needs to be convincingly breached (16-20 sell signal).
NEW/Nov20: 35-39 index generated a buy signal so a double buy scenario is now activated.
NEW/Nov30: The 16-20/35-39 double buy signal instigated a swift rally, piercing the $30-$31 resistance zone. Presently, the significant $31.79 peak from 2016 is being challenged. Overcoming this level would activate a 92-96 buy signal, featuring a robust SKI structure. Following this breakthrough, the subsequent targets would be set at around $36 and then $40.
NEW/Dec08: The price has experienced a precise rejection at the previously mentioned $31.79 resistance level. The retreat towards the former resistance at $30 is not a positive sign, particularly if the 92-96 buy signal does not materialize before the 35-39 sell signal. Instead of resembling a breakout test from above, it is starting to resemble a failure to confirm the breakout. However, there are still some promising setups that could potentially reverse this situation. We will observe, with the hope that the long-term trend support at $27 does not become a factor once again.
NEW/Dec14: In typical market fashion, a reversal occurred just as a 35-39 sell signal was about to form. Currently, the recent decline closely resembles a test of the breakout level. To further validate the potential for an upward trend, the generation of a 92-96 buy signal remains crucial. Additionally, the price must hold above $32 for an extended period to instil confidence in the broader bullish trend. I'm not anticipating any significant upward movements until the spot gold price can rise and maintain levels above $2100 for an extended period. However, if a 92-96 buy signal is generated, followed by a 218-221 buy signal, the next likely target is $35 then $40.
*comment/Nov01: GDXJ is in a bearish configuration. Notably, unlike other gold indices, the GDXJ hasn't triggered the 35-39 index buy, which should have served as a caution since GDXJ is typically a leading indicator. Two prominent bullish scenarios are in play:
- -An immediate ascent to trigger the 35-39 buy, followed by the 92-96 buy.
- -A week-long sideways movement to initiate the 16-20 buy, subsequently followed by an uptrend to activate the 35-39 buy, creating a double buy scenario.
A sustained decline without activating the 35-39 buy would be bearish. Presently, the low is anchored at $32.98. The potential 16-20 buy could coincide with revisiting this low, hinting at a potential double bottom.
NEW/Nov03: Friday's significant price surge suggests that the first scenario outlined earlier is the most likely (35-39 buy). This could signal bullishness and potentially mark the recent low as a long-term bottom. If this is the case, the initial target for an upward trend is set around the $37 level.
NEW/Nov16: Contrary to my initial expectation, the double buy scenario involving the 16-20/35-39 indices has unfolded. Nonetheless, for this to be confirmed, the key resistance zone around $35.5-36.5 needs to be convincingly breached (16-20 sell signal).
NEW/Nov20: The 16-20 index has signaled a sell. If this level is maintained for the next few days, it would indicate a breakout. The upward target in this scenario is around the $37 mark, which aligns with the back prices of the 92-96 index. Then we will see.
NEW/Nov30: The 16-20/35-39 double buy signal has sparked a rapid rally, successfully breaking through the $35-$36 resistance range. The focus is now on the 92-96 index, which is close to being triggered. If this level is surpassed, it would initiate a 92-96 buy signal, characterized by a solid SKI structure. Should this occur, the next projected price target would be approximately $41, followed by $44 and $52.
NEW/Dec08: The previously mentioned 92-96 buy signal did occur, but it also coincided with the exact peak. Consequently, it swiftly reversed, but the favourable SKI structure now positions it for a potential re-entry for a genuine bullish buy signal. Typically, this would be a preferred course of action. However, the issue lies in the price dropping below the $35-36 breakout level, suggesting potential complications, particularly as the long-term resistance around $40 remains unbroken.
NEW/Dec14: In typical market fashion, a reversal occurred just as a 35-39 sell signal was about to form. Currently, the recent decline closely resembles a test of the breakout level. To further validate the potential for an upward trend, the generation of a 92-96 buy signal remains crucial. Additionally, the price must hold above $41 for an extended period to instil confidence in the broader bullish trend. I'm not anticipating any significant upward movements until the spot gold price can rise and maintain levels above $2100 for an extended period. However, if a 92-96 buy signal is generated, followed by a 218-221 buy signal, the next likely target is $50.
GLD, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 38 days, +3.15% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $188.73)
*comment/Oct20: GLD flipped to a bullish constellation with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades but it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active (218-222/439-443/660-664).
The SKI structure of today's double buy signal is sound but there are caveats. A 16-20 sell signal came in between the 35-39 buy and the 92-96 buy which somewhat diminishes the strength of the signal. The stop on this 92-96 buy signal is falling for the next two weeks and if the price falls back below $181 (former resistance) there is a danger that the signal will end quickly. After about two weeks from today, the 16-20 index back prices will rise above the 92-96 index back prices and provide some sort of 'protection'.
After a strong move like the one seen in the past two weeks, which can be categorized as an impulse wave, it is often the case that we get a quick correction to sell/buy the 92-96 index to morphe the signal into a true bull signal while scaring everyone out. I am not predicting that but if it happens the key is to generate a new 92-96 buy before the 35-39 index sells. The key seems to be not to fall under $181 ($1960 spot), and if we do then not for more than a couple of days.
NEW/Nov10: The failure to sustain the $181 ($1960 spot) level is concerning. The immediate target shifts to $175, and if it fails to hold, it suggests a possible breakdown in gold prices. In such a scenario, I am prepared to liquidate all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov16: The initial correction following the 92-96 buy signal appears to be a classic test of the breakout so far. The uptrend line is holding at $175 ($1920 spot), as is the major resistance/support level at $181 ($1960 spot). While we're not completely in the clear yet, the situation is increasingly looking more robust with each passing day. However, the issue is the performance of gold stocks. Their relative weakness compared to the metal itself needs to stop soon for a more cohesive bullish picture.
NEW/Nov30: The test of breakout proved successful, leading to a sustained rally. The 92-96 buy signal has held, lending a solid foundation to the SKI structure. Moving forward, the $180 ($2000 spot) price level should act as support. In my view, a breakthrough above $191 ($2070 spot) could potentially trigger a short squeeze, which in turn might propel gold price toward $2200 and possibly higher.
NEW/Dec01: We've reached $191 ($2070 spot). This level could either represent a peak or, alternatively, we might see a gap up on Monday, potentially leading to a rally towards $2200. While daily indicators signal an overbought condition, the weekly indicators do not reflect the same.
In the Commitments of Traders (COTs) reports, commercials are at maximum short positions, and large speculators are at maximum long, but the positions for small speculators remain neutral. Given this setup, a push towards $2100 might be necessary before any correction occurs, to consolidate the gains we've recently seen. My bias is bullish short-term but medium term we need some cooling off or this rally might become too fast too soon.
NEW/Dec08: A cooling-off phase, mentioned above, is indeed occurring, and the key question is how deep this correction will go. According to the SKI structure, as long as the 92-96 level remains intact, the correction can persist. In numerical terms, this translates to around $176 (approximately $1900 in spot price) under the condition that the decline does not escalate into a full-fledged crash. A more favourable scenario would be if the breakout level becomes a supportive floor at $181 (around $1960 in spot price). In this case, the correction would resemble a test of the breakout level from above.
SLV, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, +1.65% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to BUY 21.48/-3.02% or lower; 35-39 on BUY > to SELL 21.01/-5.15% or lower; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL > to NOT BUY 21.83/-1.44% or lower; current $22.15)
*comment/Nov30: The SLV chart has transitioned into a bullish configuration, marked by today's 92-96 true buy signal. The SKI structure of this signal appears vulnerable in the short term, yet it seems more robust for the longer term. After a period of brief consolidation or correction, there's a strong likelihood of witnessing a gap up over the $26 resistance level (spot price), potentially leading to a rapid short squeeze.
NEW/Dec08: The 92-96 buy signal marked a high which was expected to a degree but the ensuing crash and eventually a 92-96 sell signal were not. The action of the last few days did not bode well for the SKI structure and the possibility of buying the 92-96 index back for a long-lasting bull market. The ongoing decline must halt promptly, preventing the 35-39 index from triggering a sell signal and mitigating the likelihood of further significant losses. If the 35-39 sell signal does materialize, there remains the potential for an extremely bullish scenario, marked by a triple buy signal, if the price rebounds and surges back towards the $23 range.
TIP, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 18 days, +2.9% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 106.46/-1.25% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.81)
*comment/Nov01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. So far, the lowest point reached was $101.74. The trend remains downward but it seems that a bottom has been reached. I can't shift to a predominantly bullish viewpoint beyond the short term unless the resistance ($106/35-39 index buy) is surpassed.
NEW/Nov20: The 35-39 index has triggered a buy signal. The prevailing trend now leans towards reaching a target in the $107-108 range.
NEW/Dec14: The target range as pointed above has been reached. The upcoming 92-96 buy signal is likely to mark a temporary high.
TLT, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 18 days, +9.33% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $99.04)
NEW/Nov20: The 35-39 index has triggered a buy signal. The prevailing trend now leans towards reaching a target in the $96-98 range.
NEW/Dec14: The target range as pointed above has been reached. The upcoming 92-96 buy signal is likely to mark a temporary high.
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, +6.51% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $26.99)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
NEW/Sep21: The price action suggests that a correction might be due soon, if it hasn't already begun.
NEW/Oct04: The correction is now fully underway, with an initial target around the $28 mark.
NEW/Oct20: The correction was over after $28 was almost hit. I have no idea where this is going. The geopolitical situation says higher but if the recession hits then it is lower. The SKI constellation is bullish but despite the geopolitical turmoil the recent high is still holding. I am just watching now.
NEW/Nov01: The pattern is shaping up as some kind of a top. $30-31 is support.
NEW/Dec08: 218-222 sold and 92-96 sold as well. Appears like the support has given up so longer-term I expect the support at $21-22 to be tested. I might try a long position at that level.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 23 days, +7.55% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.76)
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
NEW/Nov20: I am worried about the Aussie uranium stocks not following the USA counterparts' breakout. I am 50% long.
NOW/Dec14: It appears that Aussie stocks have potentially reached the bottom of the correction. I've added to my position, and now I'm 75% long, with all positions in Aussie stocks (DYL, BOE, BMN, PDN, AGE, DEV).
USERX, last signal 16-20 SELL (after double BUY 16-20/35-39), 16 days, +10.19%; run pattern in-progress 4D/2U/+4.01%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 9.7/-1.42% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.84)
*comment/Nov01: The USERX is in a bearish configuration. The price has dropped out of a crucial rising channel that it has only recently managed to reclaim ($8.8). This exit from the upward channel has bearish implications, which shouldn't be ignored especially with the recent development in the equity markets. The best scenario is still for the price to start rising now until a 35-39 buy signal before any other signal but that is becoming increasingly improbable. The other bullish scenario is for the price to move sideways/down for a while to buy the 16-20 and then start a rise to buy the 35-39 index for a double buy. In short a 35-39 buy signal is necessary for a bullish case. Protracted weakness will challenge the recent low and probably target $7.25-7.5 for a possible low.
NEW/Nov03: The closing above the critical $8.8 mark has repositioned the price within the long-term ascending channel, suggesting a bullish trend. To validate this trend, the price needs to either sustain around this level or climb slightly higher, which will trigger a 35-39 buy signal. Given the leading indicators from the ASA chart and the strength of XGD.AX, it appears likely that the 35-39 buy signal will materialize, potentially steering the market towards the $10.28 level. This level is key for kick-starting a more substantial bull market.
NEW/Nov07: The expected continuation of Friday's momentum didn't take place. Prices are struggling once again at the significant 50-day moving average and critical $8.8 level. In case the price fall exceeds the recent 8.54 low I would expect $8.2 to be the renewed downside target (next target $7.5). The outlook could shift to a more positive stance if the 16-20 buy signal marks a low, followed by a 35-39 buy signal for a double buy and a possible low.
NEW/Nov10: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal and the potential double buy scenario with the 35-39 index is now activated. However, there is no life in gold stocks that would suggest such an outcome, not at all. Looking ahead, as the year draws to a close, I anticipate a retest and possible breach of the October low (probably visiting the $7.5 mark).
NEW/Nov16: Contrary to my previous expectations, a 35-39 buy signal now appears more probable than a price decline to the $7-7.5 range. For an optimal outcome, the 35-39 buy should occur before a 16-20 sell, setting up a double buy scenario. If the 35-39 buy signal does materialize, a rise above approximately $9.2 is necessary to confirm a breakout. Following this confirmation, the focus shifts to the $10.28 resistance level as the next target.
NEW/Nov20: The 35-39 index has produced a buy signal. However, there's still resistance around the $9.2 mark that needs to be overcome for the 92-95 buy signal to become a viable target.
NEW/Nov30: With the resistance near the $9.2 mark breached, the 92-96 buy signal has become a valid target. However, surpassing the $10.28 level remains crucial for definitively entering the bull market territory.
NEW/Dec08: The 92-96 back prices seem too high to reach at the moment. As long as the price remains above the $9.2 breakout level, this isn't a significant concern. However, it could become problematic if the price struggles to breach the 92-96 index soon. At present, the back prices for 35-39 are comfortably distant on the downside, and if $9.2 holds, they should remain untouched. Unlike other gold indices (excluding ASA), the USERX chart appears well-positioned for a substantial correction that won't harm the SKI structure and is likely to generate a robust 92-96 buy signal, possibly in conjunction with a 16-20 buy for a double buy. Patience is warranted. The key levels to watch are $9.2 on the downside, the 92-96 back prices on the upside, and eventually the $10.28 critical resistance level to break free of the current constraint.
NEW/Dec13: After today's action the impression is that the price action since the gold was rejected at $2150 resembles a test of the breakout point ($1970). If today's gains can be sustained for a couple of days a 92-96 buy signal will be generated for a potential long-term bull market. The only obstacle left after that would be to clear the crucial $10.28 level and the bull market can slowly accelerate.
NEW/Dec14: A 92-96 buy signal will likely be generated soon. The SKI structure of this signal looks sound, but the technical analysis (TA) setup is not as favourable. This is due to a major resistance level dating back to the breakdown in 2011, which stands above at $10.28. Overcoming this resistance is crucial for validating the bullish signal. As long as the gold spot price remains above $1970 and the USERX price stays above $9.2, this breakout scenario remains viable and my bias is positive.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 19 days, +8.88% (also , 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > to SELL 6710/-6.92% or lower; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL ; 218-222 on BUY; current $7209)
*comment/Nov01: After a double sell signal from the 16-20/35-39 indices, the price began to rise, triggering the 92-96 index buy. However, this was quickly followed by a sell. If this marks the peak, the outlook isn't promising. Yet, if the price manages to stay above $6700, a genuine bullish 92-96 signal could emerge. If it fails to do so, a double-sell signal will be activated. Still, as long as the price remains above $6400, a myriad of both bullish and bearish scenarios remain possible. We'll have to observe how it unfolds. Currently, I'm 30% long.
NEW/Nov03: A genuine 92-96 true bull buy signal has been activated, reinforcing the leadership role of Australian stocks in the gold market and affirming the breakout from the descending channel that started in June. The SKI structure supporting this signal is robust, though there's a caveat: a short-term increase in future back prices over the next three weeks might result in a sell/buy sequence before a stable 92-96 structure emerges.
Therefore, for those acting on today's signal, it would be prudent to set a stop loss at a close below $6671 (Thursday's low), rather than waiting for a 92-96 sell signal. This approach offers a more conservative risk management strategy in response to the potential volatility indicated by the SKI structure.
NEW/Nov10: My stop was hit on Thursday and, also, on Friday when the 92-96 true buy signal ended. The only thing I can say about this is that it looks bearish. A swift reversal and climb above $6700 could restore bullish signals, but currently, the market seems to lack momentum. Should the $6400 support level fail, it would signify an official entry into a bear market. I'm currently 30% long, but it appears this position may soon change to 0% given the unfolding market dynamics.
NEW/Nov16: $6400 level is still holding and so am I. Today a new 35-39 buy signal will be generated. I will cautiously add to my position today to roughly 50% long. A close under 6400 will cause me to sell all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov30: Today, a 92-96 buy signal was generated, aligning with the existing 35-39 buy signal, and the SKI structure supporting this is robust. The immediate target is now set at $7700. The $7700 mark is the red line between the bull and the bear. I am 75% long.
NEW/Dec03: I've reduced my position back to 50% following gold's failure at $2150. The Australian golds are trading within a sideways channel, but the SKI structure remains bullish and robust. I'm watching the $6600 support level closely, hoping it won't be breached. The next hurdle to clear before the bull market gains full momentum is the $7700 resistance level.
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