SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 123 days, +12.17% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4554)
*Comment/Jun13: SandP is in a true bull configuration. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an existing 92-96 true bull signal. The bullishness has been confirmed with the price rising over $4200. The 36-month support held so technically everything is bullish.
HUI, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 13 days, +8.04% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $243.5)
*comment/July10: HUI is in a bullish configuration but the SKI structure is not yet fully formed in a bullish order. To achieve this, a new 35-39 buy signal is needed before a 92-96 sell signal. A rise over the $270 area is also needed (before the middle of August) for the 92-96 buy signal to stay alive and set the stage for real bullishness later this year. $300 is the long-term resistance. The current support is around $220 and rising.
NEW/Jul24: The 35-39 index executed a BUY signal today. To preserve this buy signal and maintain the bullish potential of the HUI chart, a swift rise in price is necessary to avoid an immediate sell signal. The survival of this signal plays a crucial role in paving the way for real bullishness, which might initiate in September.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 122 days, +26.97% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $15448)
*comment/Apr19: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39, 92-96 and 218-222 indexes are on buy signals. Everything is lined up in a bullish order.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, on path, XXed, 34 days, +8.8% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $1965)
*comment/Jul19: The Russell chart generated a triple buy signal 16-20/218-222/35-39 in June and now this signal is joined by a 92-96 buy signal. The SKI structure is great and everything is aligned in a bullish manner. The bullish target is around $2200.
$TNX - 10Y yield, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, +1.58% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.86%)
*comment/Jun13: 10yy is in a true bull market but the SKI structure is not favourable to it surviving the next 30 days. The true bull signal was generated under the major resistance which stands in the 3.8%-4.0% area. If the yield can hold in this area till mid-July this bull signal could be for real. Watch the NASDAQ 15K level and compare it to this chart. If the 10yy bull market survives NASDAQ will struggle at 15K and vice versa.
NEW/Jun29: Explosion to the upside today but the trendline is still holding. Needs follow-through to avoid the 92-96 sell signal.
NEW/Jun30: 92-96 keeps breaking toward a sell.
NEW/July10: The yield rose to 4% and the true bull signal now has a chance to survive. Not what I was expecting but the jury is still out. The NASDAQ chart is showing signs of weakness at these levels of 10yy. If the rise continues, especially if the price spikes up the correction in NASDAQ and SandP will take place.
NEW/July12: 10yy was very weak today, back to the 3.8% level. NASDAQ consequently broke through 15K but the chart hasn't broken out or down yet. My bias didn't change it is to the downside for the 10yy but let's see what the market decides.
NEW/July14: 92-96 true bull finally sold, as I expected. The rise to 4% now looks like a fake breakout but a 35-39 sell is needed for a confirmation. There are many bullish and bearish scenarios in play. One that is the most important right now is that the 10yy needs a quick drop down to 3.4% to avoid a new 92-96 buy signal.
NEW/Jul24: So far the drop needed to avoid a new 92-96 buy signal is not happening. The situation is unclear, the 4% area is obviously a strong resistance and on the other side, the rising support is now at 3.7%. One of these must be broken for a significant move up or down.
XAU, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 10 days, +4.71% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $126.31)
*comment/July10: XAU is in a bullish configuration but the SKI structure is not yet fully developed in a bullish order. For this to happen a new 35-39 buy signal is needed before a 92-96 sell signal. A rise over the $140 area is also needed (before the middle of August) for the 92-96 buy signal to stay alive and set the stage for real bullishness (or bearishness) later this year. $160 is the long-term resistance. The current support is around $110 and rising.
NEW/Jul18: 35-39 bought which is bullish. The SKI structure is mixed, good for the 35-39 buy signal but not so good for the 92-96 buy signal. In the short term, the target is around $135. However, it is crucial for the price to rise further above this level before mid-August to avoid triggering the 92-96 sell signal.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 11 days, +2.72% (also, 16-20 on SELL ; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $15.5)
*comment/July10: ASA is in a bullish configuration but the SKI structure is not yet fully developed in a bullish order. Yesterday's 92-96 and today's 218-222 buy signal make up a double buy that is probably marking a low. For a fully bullish SKI structure to develop the price needs to generate a 35-39 buy signal before it does a potential 92-96 sell signal. To avoid the 92-96 sell signal a rise over the $17.5 area is required (by the middle of August). If the 35-39 buy signal comes before the 92-96 buy it will create the potential to transform this market into a true bull configuration (sometime in September). However, if the 92-96 sell signal is triggered before the 35-39 buy signal, it would initiate a decline towards $12 in the near future.
NEW/Jul24: A 35-39 buy signal has been generated, but to avoid an immediate sell signal, a quick price surge is required. Maintaining the bullish potential relies on the price reaching and staying at $16.5 or above. However, if the $15 level is lost, it could trigger a sell signal for the 92-96 index, indicating bearishness and potentially leading to a quick drop down to the $13.5 level.
BITCOIN, 92-96 BUY executed today, on path, not xxed(true) (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $29177
*comment/June 13: BTC is in a bullish configuration. Support is around 25K. If 30Kish can be broken through then the target is 40K. It needs to happen before the end of summer or the bull market will end.
NEW/Jun22: 35-39 buy and 16-20 sell signals were generated today. Typically these kinds of simultaneous signals would mark the top but given the momentum and the SKI structure, it might be a breakout. 30K resistance held and it needs to be broken through to confirm the bullish outcome.
NEW/Jun23: Resistance still holding but barely.
NEW/Jul18: 92-96 sold but the SKI structure is such that it can buy back quickly for a true bull signal. If the decline continues down to 25K the 35-39 will sell for a double sell and bearishness.
NEW/Jul24: 92-96 buy signal has been generated but again a quick rise is needed to avoid an instant sell signal.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 9 days, -0.51% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > to SELL 36.03/-8.34% or lower; 218-222 on BUY; current $39.31
*comment/Jul18: COPX is currently in a bullish constellation, with an ongoing consolidation pattern that dates back to 2021. The price mostly fluctuates between $34 and $42, occasionally venturing to $28 and $47. The $40-$42 range remains a significant resistance level. While the overall market is experiencing a breakout, copper is lagging behind, which is not a bullish sign as copper is typically expected to lead. However, the SKI indices indicate a potential upward resolution, but it is necessary to monitor the situation closely and observe how it unfolds.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 35-39 SELL (double SELL with 92-96), 9 days, +0.82% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $101.38)
*comment/Jul18: DXY is currently in a bearish constellation, with the price following a downtrend. It has now reached a crucial support zone that dates back to the lows of 2011. This support level resides in the range of $98-99, and if it is breached, it could lead to a significant breakdown in the dollar chart. While a short-term breakdown is not anticipated, it remains important to observe the developments over the next few months to ascertain the potential outcome.
GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 15 days, +1.96% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $31.29)
*comment/July10: GDX is presently in a bullish configuration; however, a further price increase is required to align all indices in a bullish manner. Within the next four weeks, a rally back to $35 is necessary to sustain the signal. Strengthening the SKI structure entails surpassing the 2016 top of $31.79 and subsequently generating a 35-39 buy signal. If the 35-39 signal is generated and the price manages to maintain levels above the 2016 top until the beginning of September, the entire setup will transform into a true bull configuration.
NEW/Jul18: the 35-39 buy signal has been generated, which is considered bullish. However, the SKI structure remains mixed, favoring the 35-39 buy signal but not providing strong support for the 92-96 buy signal. The short-term target resides within the $34-35 range, but to avoid the 92-96 sell signal before mid-August, the price needs to rise further above this zone.
GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 13 days, +9.01% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $37.62)
*comment/July10: GDXJ is in a bullish configuration but the price needs further rise to align all indices in a bullish manner. The price will need to rally back to $42ish during the next four weeks in order to sustain the signal. To strengthen the SKI structure the first necessary move should be a rise to above the 35-39 index and consequently generate a 35-39 buy signal. After that, if the price can hold above $38ish till the beginning of October the whole setup will transform into a true bull configuration.
NEW/July17: The 35-39 index generated a buy signal, as required. Now, the price needs to hold onto this buy signal and rise over the $40-42 area before the middle of August to avoid a 92-96 sell signal.
GLD, on 35-39 BUY (while 92-96 is on an off-path xxed BUY signal), onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, -0.43% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $181.4)
*comment/Jun13: The GLD chart structure is still bullish. A quadruple buy signal (3 long-term signals + 35-39) has been generated inside an existing 92-96 buy signal. The 35-39 index, which was on the path of trades, then sold so the path is now clear but the 92-96 index is still on a buy signal hence the bullish configuration. The current price level ($180) must hold or the 92-96 index will sell by mid-July/beginning of August. I have a feeling that there is one more visit to $170-175 ($1850-1880 spot) coming to test the support. If it does the whole configuration will be reset and we will have new signals by September. Short-term bullishness will return if the 35-39 index buys back (above $185) before the 92-96 buy signal ends. The very long-term bullishness is intact (218-222, 439-443).
NEW/Jun29: At the open, we did touch the $170-175 area of support (that I mentioned above) and then rallied all day long. Feels like it is time to start carving the bottom of this correction.
NEW/July10: $175 support is holding, the gold stocks are leading up and the gold juniors are outperforming. This behaviour is typically presented around bottoms. Let's see if we can get enough of a bounce to prevent the 92-96 buy signal from ending. There are some bullish but also some bearish scenarios shaping up during the next 2 months. I'll present them when they become probable.
NEW/July14: GLD is struggling at $181 level ($1960 spot) which I do not like. If it fails here like it did in February a nasty triple top head and shoulders pattern will appear and possibly sell the 92-96 at the same time. This chart needs to be monitored closely. A 35-39 buy signal is required quickly for bulls to stay in charge (short-term).
NEW/Jul18: Finally, we've closed above $181. If we have two more closures above this level, the 35-39 index will generate a buy signal. However, we're entering a high-resistance zone. If the surge isn't robust enough, it could terminate the 92-96 buy signal. Conversely, if the 92-96 index sells but prices maintain buoyancy, we could transition into a genuine bull market, sometime in September.
NEW/Jul24: Falling again back to $181 level ($1960 spot) is not what we wanted here. The short-term action is bearish. Everything feels like Gold wants to revisit the $175 ($1890) area. Hopefully not because that would end the 92-96 index buy signal. To avoid such a scenario a quick rise is needed back above $184 ($1980).
SLV, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, XXed, 29 days, +1.13% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $22.33)
*comment/Jun13: The SLV chart constellation is neutral. The 35-39 is on a sell signal and the 92-96 is on a buy but it is all happening inside a trading range ($21-24) that needs to be broken for the setup to turn bullish or bearish.
NEW/Jun29: Support at $21 is being tested again.
NEW/July12: The support at $21 has held, now we are heading toward $23.5 to test the resistance. Long-term silver hasn't broken out yet.
NEW/July14: 35-39 bought and 16-20 sold, $23.5 is still the target.
TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, +0.31% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.66)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a slightly falling trading channel (bullish). $105-106 is very firm support and I don't expect it to be broken. If it does that might cause turmoil in the gold market.
NEW/July19: The 92-96 signal has generated an xxed JPOT buy signal. However, the SKI structure is currently weak, making it unlikely for this signal to survive the next few weeks. Nevertheless, if the next signal is a 35-39 buy, it could create a bullish setup capable of transforming the chart into a bullish breakout. The recent bottoming pattern around $105 and the existing bullish momentum make this scenario quite probable.
TLT, on 16-20 BUY (joined with 35-39 and 92-96 buy for TRIPLE BUY), onpath, notXXed(true), 13 days, +1.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY > to SELL 101.09/-0.27% or lower; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 102.08/+0.71% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $101.36)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a trading channel ($101-$109). $101 is firm support and if broken down it could be a signal for a spike in 10yy above 3.8%-4%. That might start a correction in NASDAQ and S&P 500.
NEW/Jun22: There is a setup for a triple buy signal at the beginning of July. The price needs to be around $100 at that time.
NEW/July10: The support at $98.88 is being challenged in a manner that looks like a breakdown. The 10yy is at 4% and any further rise will confirm the breakdown of the TLT chart. A TLT price turnaround here will produce a triple buy signal that I explained above. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Jul18: A triple buy scenario has occurred, combining the 35-39 buy, 92-96 buy, and 16-20 buy signals. However, the SKI structure poses a threat to the sustainability of these buy signals. It is highly possible for the situation to transition rapidly into a double sell, which aligns more favourably with the SKI structure. To shift my outlook to bullish, it is crucial for the price to swiftly exceed $104 and maintain that level (10yy at 3.4%) for a few consecutive days. Currently, I am just observing.
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, +15.16% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 27.96/-2.65% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.72)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration but it is refusing to make a decisive move up or down. The pressure is to the downside. The support is around $21 and if it breaks down the target will be in the $15-16 range.
NEW/28Jun: The next two weeks will be hard to avoid a breakdown or breakout. The resistance is around $25. If broken through I'll probably go long. The $21 support is still holding.
NEW/July10: Here we go again knocking at $25 resistance. Simultaneous 16-20 sell and 35-39 buy signals were generated which normally mark tops but in this particular case, I'll wait and see how the situation develops. The 200 MAV is above at $27.43. The 92-96 index is roughly in the same space so if the price rises to buy the 92-96 index it might be a signal to go long.
NEW/Jul24: The price closed above the 200 MAV and is about to buy the 92-96 index, as described above. I will be looking for the long entry in the next few weeks but only if the price can stay above $28.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), 16-20 SELL executed today (while on 92-96 buy signal off the path) (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $21.84)
*comment/Jun13: URA finally broke out of the bullish contracting triangle that dates back to the top of 2021. If it is not a fakeout breakout a new 92-96 true bull buy signal will be generated by the end of June. $23 is the level to watch.
NEW/July10: Today the price is engaged with all indexes and their back prices. That is the sign that we have entered the decision time for the U stocks. We will know soon if the recent spike-up was a fake breakout or not.
NEW/July12: After 16-20 buy a 92-96 buy signal was generated also for a double buy. Looks good but I still want to see that $23 resistance cleared before I do anything.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 11 days, +3.41%; run pattern in-progress 1U/4D/-0.71%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $10.02)
*comment/Jun13: The USERX price keeps oscillating around the critical $10.28 level (2016 top). If we have reached the support $9.5 shouldn't be exceeded to the downside but if it does there is strong support in the $8.75-9.0 area. I wouldn't like to see the price going to that level because it will significantly damage the SKI structure. On the other side breaking through the $10.28 level will take us back to the bulls' territory.
NEW/Jun23: 218-222 sold. Normally I would say this should lead to a drop to $8.8 but considering daily oversold conditions and how the 218-222 buy signal had inverted I think this could be at least a short-term bottom. If the price can hold above $9.5ish till July 92-96/218-222 double buy signal will be generated. Let's see if the drop stops here. $8.8ish is where the very long-term support lies. This support is rising and will reach $9ish by September so we are playing with critical levels here.
NEW/28Jun: Support is slowly breaking down. 881-885 index is breaking to BUY (2 days to go). $8.8ish is the target. The very long-term support will likely be tested.
NEW/Jun29: 881-885 is about to buy probably in the next 2 days. Based on the ASA behaviour and divergence with the gold today, I think we started the process of putting in a medium-term bottom.
NEW/Jun30: It is becoming very likely that this week we will get three buy signals 881-885/92-96/218-222. If we can then rise over $10.28 it would be extremely bullish. Let's see what happens.
NEW/July10: All three buy signals mentioned earlier have been generated. This likely indicates a short-term bottom. However, for a definitive bottom, we need a 35-39 buy signal before a potential 92-96 sell signal. Additionally, a price increase above the critical level of $10.28 is crucial. If this occurs and the price remains steady around $10.28 for about a month, the entire scenario will transition into a genuine bull market. Should the 92-96 sell signal occur before the 35-39 buy signal, the validity of the bottom narrative becomes uncertain, and the target of $8.8 will be revisited and tested again. To maintain the bottom thesis, the first step is to generate the 35-39 buy signal by the end of July, which necessitates a price rise above approximately $10.
NEW/July12: USERX didn't waste time and closed above $10 quickly, now we need to leave that $10.28 behind and move away from a possible 92-96 sell signal. The price is arriving at the major resistance area ($10.28-10.71) with the technicals stretched out so a failure to move above it in the next few weeks will be a bearish sign.
NEW/Jul18: Since the generation of the 35-39 buy signal two days ago, we have witnessed the first instance of the price closing above the crucial level of $10.28 today. This development indicates a bullish outlook, but more days above $10.28 are needed to validate the trend.
NEW/Jul24: USERX seems to be facing difficulty again in moving beyond the $10.28 level. There is a limited timeframe of one week to initiate an upward move; otherwise, the 92-96 index will begin to shift towards a sell signal.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 35-39 BUY (inside a 92-96 BUY signal off the path), onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days, -5.83% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $6813)
*comment/Jun13: The XGD chart configuration is still bullish. The correction sold the 35-39 buy signal but the 92-96 buy is still alive. The $6600 breakout level is being tested from above. The correction shouldn't go lower than $6400. I have sold some since my last post and am 30% long. Looking to add around $6500-6600.
NEW/Jun29: 881-885 bought today. Feels like a bottom is close. The next few days will be telling if that is true.
NEW/July17: 35-39 index bought amid off-path 92-96 buy signal, indicating bullishness with the $7700 target. The concern arises as AUD gold price nears the end of the bull market unless a rapid rise to $3000 occurs. My long position remains at 70%.
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