SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 118 days, +11.39% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4522)
*Comment/Jun13: SandP is in a true bull configuration. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an existing 92-96 true bull signal. The bullishness has been confirmed with the price rising over $4200. The 36-month support held so technically everything is bullish. Short term the price is approaching the upper boundary of the uptrend channel so some consolidation is expected soon.
NEW/Jun23: Consolidation is in progress.
NEW/Jun30: Sharp surge today closed above the previous high. If a new leg-up has started we will see a follow-through on Monday. $4650 is the first target, then the all-time high ($4818). Failing here would look like a double top and dropping to $4300 would be likely.
NEW/July10: Since my last comment the price hasn't followed through the $4450 level. Also, a small bearish island reversal pattern has been created. For now, it looks like some kind of a top is forming but no serious damage has been done until the $4300 level is lost. A rise over $4450 will negate the short-term bearishness.
NEW/July12: $4450 level has been broken through so the island reversal is invalidated. The bull market continues.
HUI, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 8 days, +9.55% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on SELL breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $246.9)
*comment/July10: HUI is in a bullish configuration but the SKI structure is not yet fully developed in a bullish order. For this to happen a new 35-39 buy signal is needed before a 92-96 sell signal. A rise over the $270 area is also needed (before the middle of August) for the 92-96 buy signal to stay alive and set the stage for real bullishness later this year. $300 is the long-term resistance. The current support is around $220 and rising.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 117 days, +29.15% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $15713)
*comment/Apr19: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39, 92-96 and 218-222 indexes are on buy signals. Everything is lined up in a bullish order. Longer term I wouldn't exclude 15K as a probable target. For the chart to turn bearish again the price needs to fall below 12K. Keep an eye on 10yy. Rising over 3.8% again would be a problem for Nasdaq.
NEW/Jun13: So the price is at 15K mentioned above. Also, the 10yy is at 3.8% which should be a problem for NASDAQ. If the 10yy continues its upward move I expect the NASDAQ to top out soon. If not the melt-up scenario in NASDAQ becomes a possibility.
NEW/Jun22: 15K proves to be a strong resistance zone for now.
NEW/July10: Similar to SandP 500 the price formed a small island reversal pattern which is bearish. Also, the 15K resistance is holding and the 10yy is spiking above 4%. It seems that a correction is in order. 13.5K might be the target. A rise over the recent high ($15275) would negate this scenario.
NEW/July12: Today's close over $15275 invalidates the island reversal pattern.
NEW/July14: All sentiment indicators of $NDX are at nose-bleeding levels and divergent to last month's highs. This is typical of highs of the last ten years. Combined with the doji candle on Friday and two open-up gaps in the last three days I cannot help myself but go short. Stop loss at Friday's top.
NEW/July17: NDX opened strong and rallied up over Friday's high so I refrained from shorting.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, on path, XXed, 29 days, +8% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 crossed to BUY; current $1951)
*comment/Jun13: In my previous posts I was pointing out how NASDAQ and Russell were in inverse setups and wondered which one was wrong. It turned out it was the Russell, opposite to my expectation. Happens all the time. The Russell chart generated triple buy signal 16-20/218-222/35-39 but 92-96 is missing for now. The SKI structure is not so great but it can improve in the next 30 days if the price can stay above $1825. For now, the target is $2000 where resistance will be strong.
NEW/Jun20: RUT is still in a downtrend. 218-222 sold today and is probably marking the beginning of short-term consolidation/correction.
NEW/Jun23: Consolidation/correction is in progress. If this action causes the 35-39 index to sell then something more serious may be playing out.
NEW/Jun29: Strong move to the upside today. If it follows through 92-96 might buy soon and turn the chart bullish. Falling down back under $1850 would be at least short-time bearish.
NEW/July10: Pressure to break through the 92-96 index continues. $2000 is still strong resistance but if it gives in at the same time when the 92-96 buys I am going long.
NEW/July12: 92-96 bought/16-20 sold, usually a sign of a short-term top.
$TNX - 10Y yield, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.8%)
*comment/Jun13: 10yy is in a true bull market but the SKI structure is not favourable to it surviving the next 30 days. The true bull signal was generated under the major resistance which stands in the 3.8%-4.0% area. If the yield can hold in this area till mid-July this bull signal could be for real. Watch the NASDAQ 15K level and compare it to this chart. If the 10yy bull market survives NASDAQ will struggle at 15K and vice versa.
NEW/Jun29: Explosion to the upside today but the trendline is still holding. Needs follow-through to avoid the 92-96 sell signal.
NEW/Jun30: 92-96 keeps breaking toward a sell.
NEW/July10: The yield rose to 4% and the true bull signal now has a chance to survive. Not what I was expecting but the jury is still out. The NASDAQ chart is showing signs of weakness at these levels of 10yy. If the rise continues, especially if the price spikes up the correction in NASDAQ and SandP will take place.
NEW/July12: 10yy was very weak today, back to the 3.8% level. NASDAQ consequently broke through 15K but the chart hasn't broken out or down yet. My bias didn't change it is to the downside for the 10yy but let's see what the market decides.
NEW/July14: 92-96 true bull finally sold, as I expected. The rise to 4% now looks like a fake breakout but a 35-39 sell is needed for a confirmation. There are many bullish and bearish scenarios in play. One that is the most important right now is that the 10yy needs a quick drop down to 3.4% to avoid a new 92-96 buy signal.
XAU, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 5 days, +5.5% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 127.84/+0.46% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $127.26)
*comment/July10: XAU is in a bullish configuration but the SKI structure is not yet fully developed in a bullish order. For this to happen a new 35-39 buy signal is needed before a 92-96 sell signal. A rise over the $140 area is also needed (before the middle of August) for the 92-96 buy signal to stay alive and set the stage for real bullishness (or bearishness) later this year. $160 is the long-term resistance. The current support is around $110 and rising.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, +4.04% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY ; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $15.7)
*comment/July10: ASA is in a bullish configuration but the SKI structure is not yet fully developed in a bullish order. Yesterday's 92-96 and today's 218-222 buy signal make up a double buy that is probably marking a low. For a fully bullish SKI structure to develop the price needs to generate a 35-39 buy signal before it does a potential 92-96 sell signal. To avoid the 92-96 sell signal a rise over the $17.5 area is required (by the middle of August). If the 35-39 buy signal comes before the 92-96 buy it will create the potential to transform this market into a true bull configuration (sometime in September). If the 92-96 sell signal sells quickly (before the 35-39 buy) then this will start a decline toward $12 soon.
BITCOIN, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 183 days, +42.78% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 30404/+0.5% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $30253
*comment/June 13: BTC is in a bullish configuration. Support is around 25K. If 30Kish can be broken through then the target is 40K. It needs to happen before the end of summer or the bull market will end.
NEW/Jun22: 35-39 buy and 16-20 sell signals were generated today. Typically these kinds of simultaneous signals would mark the top but given the momentum and the SKI structure, it might be a breakout. 30K resistance held and it needs to be broken through to confirm the bullish outcome.
NEW/Jun23: Resistance still holding but barely.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 4 days, -0.3% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $39.39)
*comment/Jun13: COPX is in a bearish constellation except for the 218-222 index. The huge consolidation pattern is still developing going back to 2021. Most of the time, the price is between $34 and $42 with occasional excursions to $28 and $47. Today's 16-20 sell signal might mark the top but I am not sure. Another try at $42 will produce a double buy again but the $42 still stands as a firm resistance. I think we will need a resolution in the general market to get this pattern broken to the upside or the downside. For now, the best play is selling resistance ($42) and buying support ($28).
NEW/Jun22: There is a potential for a triple buy signal at the beginning of July. To properly set the conditions up the price needs to keep consolidating around $38.
NEW/July10: 16-20 and 35-39 are about to buy. The short-term pressure is to the upside but the $42 is still the resistance area waiting to be challenged.
NEW/July12: Close to that $42 resistance area now. Let's see what happens.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 35-39 SELL (double SELL with 92-96), 4 days, -0.66% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $99.9)
*comment/Jun13: Since my last post, the dollar rallied from $101 to $104 which is inside the major resistance area ($104-105). This rally produced a new 35-39 and 92-96 buy signal but for now (as long as under $105) I consider it a bear market rally. For the next four weeks, the battle will be held to keep the 92-96 signal alive. If failed the $98-99 area is the target. This area is the crucial long-term support and must hold. On the other hand, rising over $105 will target $110.
NEW/Jun22: 92-96 sold as expected. This is a bearish development. $101 is a major support area. If it cannot hold $98-99 is the target.
NEW/July10: 35-39 index is about to sell which is a further bearish development. $101 support still holds but after this 35-39 sell it will be seriously tested again.
NEW/July12: 35-39 sold as expected. The $101 level is breaking down. I do expect the $98-99 area to be hit soon. This area is at the long-term uptrend line and it needs to hold or the dollar chart will fall apart. If testing of this uptrend happens the gold chart should consequently test the $2072 resistance area again.
NEW/July14: DXY is close to the support area. I do expect a short-term bounce from around here or a bit lower. The SKI structure stays bearish.
GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 10 days, +4.17% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on SELL > to NOT BUY 32.92/-3.28% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $31.97)
*comment/July10: GDX is in a bullish configuration but the price needs further rise to align all indices in a bullish manner. The price will need to rally back to $35 during the next four weeks in order to sustain the signal. To strengthen the SKI structure the first necessary move should be a rise to above $31.79 (2016 top) and consequently generate a 35-39 buy signal. After that, if the price can hold above that 2016 top price till the beginning of September the whole setup will transform into a true bull configuration.
GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 8 days, +11.68% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 crossed to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $38.54)
*comment/July10: GDXJ is in a bullish configuration but the price needs further rise to align all indices in a bullish manner. The price will need to rally back to $42ish during the next four weeks in order to sustain the signal. To strengthen the SKI structure the first necessary move should be a rise to above the 35-39 index and consequently generate a 35-39 buy signal. After that, if the price can hold above $38ish till the beginning of October the whole setup will transform into a true bull configuration.
NEW/July17: The 35-39 index generated a buy signal, as required. Now, the price needs to hold onto this buy signal and rise over the $40-42 area before the middle of August to avoid a 92-96 sell signal.
GLD, 16-20 SELL executed today (while 92-96 is on an off-path xxed BUY signal) (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $181.56)
*comment/Jun13: The GLD chart structure is still bullish. A quadruple buy signal (3 long-term signals + 35-39) has been generated inside an existing 92-96 buy signal. The 35-39 index, which was on the path of trades, then sold so the path is now clear but the 92-96 index is still on a buy signal hence the bullish configuration. The current price level ($180) must hold or the 92-96 index will sell by mid-July/beginning of August. I have a feeling that there is one more visit to $170-175 ($1850-1880 spot) coming to test the support. If it does the whole configuration will be reset and we will have new signals by September. Short-term bullishness will return if the 35-39 index buys back (above $185) before the 92-96 buy signal ends. The very long-term bullishness is intact (218-222, 439-443).
NEW/Jun29: At the open, we did touch the $170-175 area of support (that I mentioned above) and then rallied all day long. Feels like it is time to start carving the bottom of this correction.
NEW/July10: $175 support is holding, the gold stocks are leading up and the gold juniors are outperforming. This behaviour is typically presented around bottoms. Let's see if we can get enough of a bounce to prevent the 92-96 buy signal from ending. There are some bullish but also some bearish scenarios shaping up during the next 2 months. I'll present them when they become probable.
NEW/July14: GLD is struggling at $181 level ($1960 spot) which I do not like. If it fails here like it did in February a nasty triple top head and shoulders pattern will appear and possibly sell the 92-96 at the same time. This chart needs to be monitored closely. A 35-39 buy signal is required quickly for bulls to stay in charge (short-term).
SLV, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, XXed, 24 days, +3.22% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $22.79)
*comment/Jun13: The SLV chart constellation is neutral. The 35-39 is on a sell signal and the 92-96 is on a buy but it is all happening inside a trading range ($21-24) that needs to be broken for the setup to turn bullish or bearish.
NEW/Jun29: Support at $21 is being tested again.
NEW/July12: The support at $21 has held, now we are heading toward $23.5 to test the resistance. Long-term silver hasn't broken out yet.
NEW/July14: 35-39 bought and 16-20 sold, $23.5 is still the target.
TIP, 92-96 BUY executed today, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.33)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a slightly falling trading channel (bullish). $105-106 is very firm support and I don't expect it to be broken. If it does that might cause turmoil in the gold market.
NEW/July17: 92-96 generated a buy signal but the SKI structure is bad and the chance to survive the next few weeks is small.
TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notXXed(true), 8 days, +1.67% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL > to NOT BUY 100.53/-0.8% or lower; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 100.36/-0.97% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $101.34)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a trading channel ($101-$109). $101 is firm support and if broken down it could be a signal for a spike in 10yy above 3.8%-4%. That might start a correction in NASDAQ and S&P 500.
NEW/Jun22: There is a setup for a triple buy signal at the beginning of July. The price needs to be around $100 at that time.
NEW/July10: The support at $98.88 is being challenged in a manner that looks like a breakdown. The 10yy is at 4% and any further rise will confirm the breakdown of the TLT chart. A TLT price turnaround here will produce a triple buy signal that I explained above. Let's see what happens.
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, +2.93% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $26.33)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration but it is refusing to make a decisive move up or down. The pressure is to the downside. The support is around $21 and if it breaks down the target will be in the $15-16 range.
NEW/28Jun: The next two weeks will be hard to avoid a breakdown or breakout. The resistance is around $25. If broken through I'll probably go long. The $21 support is still holding.
NEW/July10: Here we go again knocking at $25 resistance. Simultaneous 16-20 sell and 35-39 buy signals were generated which normally mark tops but in this particular case, I'll wait and see how the situation develops. The 200 MAV is above at $27.43. The 92-96 index is roughly in the same space so if the price rises to buy the 92-96 index it might be a signal to go long.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 7 days, +4.89% (also, 16-20 on BUY breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 SELL executed today; current $21.88)
*comment/Jun13: URA finally broke out of the bullish contracting triangle that goes back to the top of 2021. If it is not a fakeout breakout a new 92-96 true bull buy signal will be generated by the end of June. $23 is the level to watch.
NEW/July10: Today the price is engaged with all indexes and their back prices. That is the sign that we have entered the decision time for the U stocks. We will know soon if the recent spike-up was a fake breakout or not.
NEW/July12: After 16-20 buy signal 4 days ago a 92-96 buy signal was generated today for a double buy. Looks good but I still want to see that $23 resistance cleared before I do anything.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, +4.54%; run pattern in-progress 5U/2D/-0.68%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $10.13)
*comment/Jun13: The USERX price keeps oscillating around the critical $10.28 level (2016 top). If we have reached the support $9.5 shouldn't be exceeded to the downside but if it does there is strong support in the $8.75-9.0 area. I wouldn't like to see the price going to that level because it will significantly damage the SKI structure. On the other side breaking through the $10.28 level will take us back to the bulls' territory.
NEW/Jun20: Touching 16-20 and 92-96 caused an immediate price drop. 218-222 started breaking down. This doesn't look bullish. If the fall continues $8.8 is the next target.
NEW/Jun23: 218-222 sold. Normally I would say this should lead to a drop to $8.8 but considering daily oversold conditions and how the 218-222 buy signal had inverted I think this could be at least a short-term bottom. If the price can hold above $9.5ish till July 92-96/218-222 double buy signal will be generated. Let's see if the drop stops here. $8.8ish is where the very long-term support lies. This support is rising and will reach $9ish by September so we are playing with critical levels here.
NEW/28Jun: Support is slowly breaking down. 881-885 index is breaking to BUY (2 days to go). $8.8ish is the target. The very long-term support will likely be tested.
NEW/Jun29: 881-885 is about to buy probably in the next 2 days. Based on the ASA behaviour and divergence with the gold today, I think we started the process of putting in a medium-term bottom.
NEW/Jun30: It is becoming very likely that this week we will get three buy signals 881-885/92-96/218-222. If we can then rise over $10.28 it would be extremely bullish. Let's see what happens.
NEW/July10: The three buy signals described above have all been generated. I expect that this is marking at least a short-term bottom. For the real bottom, we need a 35-39 buy signal before a possible 92-96 sell signal and more importantly a price rise over the critical $10.28 mark. If this happens and then the price goes sideways for about a month while maintaining the $10.28 level the whole constellation will transform into a true bull market. If the 92-96 sells before the 35-39 is bought the bottom narrative becomes questionable and $8.8 will be targeted and tested again. As the first step, to keep the bottom thesis alive the 35-39 buy needs to be generated by the end of July. That would require a price rise over $10ish.
NEW/July12: USERX didn't waste time and closed above $10 quickly, now we need to leave that $10.28 behind and move away from a possible 92-96 sell signal. The price is arriving at the major resistance area ($10.28-10.71) with the technicals stretched out so a failure to move above it in the next few weeks will be a bearish sign.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, 35-39 crossed to BUY (inside a 92-96 BUY signal off the path) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $7258)
*comment/Jun13: The XGD chart configuration is still bullish. The correction sold the 35-39 buy signal but the 92-96 buy is still alive. The $6600 breakout level is being tested from above. The correction shouldn't go lower than $6400. I have sold some since my last post and am 30% long. Looking to add around $6500-6600.
NEW/Jun29: 881-885 bought today. Feels like a bottom is close. The next few days will be telling if that is true.
NEW/July17: 35-39 index bought inside an off-path 92-96 buy signal. Looks bullish, $7700 is the target. Having said that, I feel uncomfortable because the gold price in AUD will soon end its bull market except if it explodes back to $3000 soon. I'm still 70% long.
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