The State Of Indices

 SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3839)

*Comment/Dec28: S and P's true bull signal ended. The SKI indices are in a bearish configuration. Today an xxed out 35-39 buy was generated but I think it will have no positive effect on the existing situation (it is xxed). If the month closes under $3857 (36 months MAV) the crash scenario is becoming active again.
NEW/Dec31: The month of Dec closed under the critical $3857 level so the crash scenario becomes active again but here is the problem. The short-term put/call ratio is extremely bullish and suggests a strength for the next couple of weeks. If this condition causes a rally the setup is such that an overall bearish SKI picture could turn bullish quickly (with a close above $4000ish). All I can do right now is follow the signals so if the 35-39 index sells again I will probably go short with the tight stop (35-39 or 92-96 buy signal).


HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 37 days, +7.17% (also, 16-20 to BUY 229.39/-0.16% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $229.75)
*comment/Dec28: HUI SKI configuration changed to bullish. The long-term support at $180 survived the test. The opportunity to quickly sell/buy the 92-96 (for a true bull) is gone now. The 16-20 index is being touched but it behaves like support. If the price drops towards a 16-20 buy signal and cannot hold the 35-39 is likely to sell too and that is not wanted ($190 becomes a target again). $230-235 needs to be broken to the upside to target the $270 level.


$NDX - Nasdaq, last signal 35-39 SELL, 8 days, -1.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 11606/+6.1% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $10939)
*comment/Dec11: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 sold at the resistance. I started a short position ($11608 entry). The initial stop loss at $12110.
NEW/Dec16: Moved the stop loss to breakeven. If the 35-39 index sells I might add to my short position.
NEW/Dec18: Moved the stop loss into profit territory ($11408). Now I will wait to see if the thing can break down. The daily chart looks like there is a lot of space before the technicals become oversold.
NEW/Dec21: Moved the stop loss further into profit ($11200).
NEW/Dec22: My stop loss is hit for a nice profit. Watching now. Ideally, we get a bounce to sell the 16-20 and 35-39 for a double sell signal which I would act upon.
NEW/Dec28: The 35-39 sell signal marked an acceleration point. The chart is very bearish now. I am looking for an entry point. Ideally, a 16-20 sell signal but it has been avoided for now.


$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 35-39 SELL, 7 days,
-0.88% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1761)
*comment/Dec18: The SKI chart structure is bearish. To change to bullish it will now need the price over $1900 but it needs to happen before the 35-39 index generates a sell signal. If the 35-39 sells down we go (expected).
NEW/Dec21: 35-39 sold, as expected. We are now officially in a bear configuration. Rallies should be sold. To reverse the configuration the price needs to rise above $1900.
NEW/Dec28: As expected the 35-39 sell signal marked the acceleration point to the downside. I am looking for an entry point (to short). Probably a 16-20 sell signal.


$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 286 days, +148.65% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.88%)
*comment/Dec15: The 10yy is in a bull market. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like a firm resistance and a part of a triple top. The 3.5% mark was hit as I expected and if my triple top theses is correct the target on the downside is 3.0-3.2%ish. In that case, I expect the 92-96 to sell and end the bull market (probably in the last week of Jan 2023). Short-term the 3.35%-3.4% level is firm support that needs to be broken for the move to continue.
NEW/Dec21: As expected, the 3.4% acted as support, and a short-term rally is in progress. The target is 3.9-4.0% area. If 35-39 can buy back (above 4.0%ish) that would be quite bullish and lead to testing the high (not expected).
NEW/Dec28: My upside target is almost achieved (3.9-4.0%). I am observing if this 16-20 sell signal becomes the top and prevents the 35-39 from buying. We are still in a bull market so if the 35-39 index buys back that could cause a further rise to test the top. The markets are becoming increasingly risky.


XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 37 days, +7.78% (also, 16-20 to BUY 119.41/-1.2% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $120.86)
*comment/Dec08: XAU is now in a bullish configuration. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The 92-96 buy has not marked a short-term top. The stage has been set for a true bull market in mid-Dec but it will now need a steep decline (does not look very probable). We are not in a traditional TA bull market yet (the $123 resistance needs to be cleared for $137 to become a target). This is a very bullish development short-term but it is not great regarding the SKI bull market.
NEW/Dec28: The resistance is still holding. The window of opportunity to quickly sell and buy the 92-96 index (for a true bull) is gone now. The $120-125 area is the level to watch. If it can be taken out it is bullish but how bullish depends on the sequence of the SKI signals. We do not want the 35-39 index to generate a sell signal. If it does we want it to mark a low otherwise $100 will be the target again.


ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 13 days, -1.99% (also, 16-20 to BUY 14.27/-0.28% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.31)
*comment/Dec15: 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals have set the stage for a true bull market signal sometime in late December or early January. Two steps are needed, a 92-96 sell signal first and then a 92-96 buy signal before the 35-39 index sells. The first step is done, the 92-96 sold. This is a very bullish development considering that the ASA index has been the leading indicator for the sector for a while.
NEW/Dec31: $14.8-15.0 is behaving like a firm resistance. We need an immediate rise to generate a true bull signal or the setup will become complicated with many possible outcomes. Let's see what happens.


Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 14 days, -0.74% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16733
*comment/Dec11: BTC is in a bear market configuration. Targets on the downside are $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. To negate the bearish configuration a rise over $20-21K is needed.
NEW/Dec21: 16-20 bought and the 35-39 could buy soon for a double buy. I might go long in that case, target 21K.
NEW/Dec28: The 35-39 bought but I didn't. I'll stay away till my targets are hit or the SKI structure changes.


COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 37 days, +7.82% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.43)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not sure of the long-term implications of the recent SKI signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.


DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 20 days,
-0.97% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $103.49)
*comment/Dec15: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is turning bearish. My target at 103 was hit today and should represent support. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last defence before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish) which should be used to start shorting.
NEW/Dec31: The SKI structure is now outright bearish. So far no strength has been shown in order to sell the 16-20 index. The $103 critical level is being hit again. It needs to hold or $100 becomes the target.


GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 37 days, +7.5% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.66)
*comment/Dec28: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The transition to a true bull market is not possible anymore so we will be relying on 16-20 and 35-39 signals for further assessment. $30 is resistance, and $26 is support.


GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 37 days, +8.49% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 36.11/+1.29% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.65)
*comment/Dec28: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The transition to a true bull market is not possible anymore so we will be relying on 16-20 and 35-39 signals for further assessment. $37.5ish is resistance, $30ish is support.


GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 35 days, +3.77% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $169.64)
*comment/Dec31: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes have bought and are holding which implies that the bottom is in. We didn't get the weakness when needed for a transition to a true bull market. That setup is now gone. 16-20 and 35-39 signals are now in charge of what happens so let's wait and see how the situation develops. $168-170 is resistance, and $162 is support. The target on the upside is $176ish. Support is around $164.


SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 47 days, +23.29% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to SELL 21.61/-1.86% or lower; current $22.02)
*comment/Dec28: The SKI structure is bullish. The target is $23.5ish. The short-term resistance is 22.3ish, support is $20.0-20.5. It seems like SLV will need a correction before it will be able to break the resistance.


TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days, -0.1% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $106.44)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TIPs I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).


TLT, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, -5.86% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $99.56)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks). $101 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TLT I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).


UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 23 days,
+4.02% (also, 16-20 to SELL 30.57/+0.86% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 to BUY 31.44/+3.73% or higher; current 30.31)
*comment/Dec01: The UCO is in bearish configuration. I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support, and $35 is strong resistance.
NEW/Dec11: We are at significant support and the 218-222 index sold. I take that as a bearish sign. This signal is actionable (short side) but I would wait until two closes under $25 or a new 16-20 sell signal before a 218-222 buy signal.
NEW/Dec15: I was right not to go short last week. The 218-222 sell signal caused a short-term rally. If the 218-222 buys back everything will go back to neutral. Having said that, my statement from the last week stays firm, the 16-20 sell signal before the 218-222 buy signal is a selling point. Another selling point is two consecutive closes under $25.0.
NEW/Dec28: The signals are approaching. Let's see the order first and then decide what to do.


URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 10 days, +3.03% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $2008)
*comment/Dec16: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 sold too for a double sell signal. That seems dangerous. The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.


USERX, last signal 92-96 SELL, 8 days, +1.46%; run pattern in-progress 1D/2U/+0.21%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 9.82/+0.72% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to BUY 9.96/+2.15% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.75)
*comment/Dec21: USERX is in a bearish configuration but that can change quickly if the 92-96 index buys back. If that happens before the 16-20 buy signal we will get a bullish development identical to the 1993 true bull signal. Accompanied by the 200 MAV breakout and smashing through the trendline it all will look super bullish.
If the 16-20 buys before the 92-96 (without the 35-39 selling) we will get a double buy. Very bullish too but not a true bull market.
If the price drops and sells the 35-39 index it will not be automatically bearish because a turnaround and buying back both 35-39 and 92-96 will constitute a bullish double buy that can be bought for a strong rally but not a bull market.
To turn everything bearish the recent low needs to be exceeded ($8) but that is not expected except if the general market goes into a serious crash (not expected).
NEW/Dec31: There are too many possible scenarios in play right now to comment on all of them. From simply eyeballing the chart it seems that the decision will be made either by an instant rise into the new bull market signal or after the price drops in the $9.4-9.5ish area where anything can happen. That includes a true bull double buy or a collapse down to test the $8.0 area. Whatever happens there still will be the issue of $10.28 that needs to be broken through for a serious move to the upside to be probable.


Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 44 days, +19.96% (also, 16-20 to BUY 5910.7/-0.14% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $5918.7)
*comment/Dec21: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am 35% long and looking to buy more on weak days (added some PRU and RED this week). The 218-222 generated a sell signal as expected. This might be bearish at least short-term because in the recent two years this index was acting as resistance. I'd like to see the XGD price around $5400 before I start serious buying. If that doesn't happen I will buy a break above $6000 and follow the momentum but my stops will be tight.
NEW/Dec28: $6000 acts as a firm resistance. It seems I will get that weakness that I was hoping for but the structure will not be as desired. I am not doing anything before either $6000 is broken or the price corrects down to at least $5400.