The State Of Indices

 SandP 500, 92-96 crossed to BUY, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 SELL executed today; 92-96 to NOT SELL 4006/+0.86% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $3972)

*Comment/Jan06: S and P's true bull signal ended. The month of Dec closed under the critical $3857 level so the crash scenario becomes active again. Today the 35-39 index sold which is bearish but at the same time the price closed above the $3857 level which is bullish. It is conflicting and an overall bearish SKI picture could turn bullish quickly (with a close above $4000ish). I am still waiting for the resolution. On a close under $3800, I will go short but a rise over $4000 might be very bullish so I might consider switching to the long side.
NEW/Jan13: The rally of the last 2 weeks has lifted the price exactly to the $4000 resistance. Today simultaneous 16-20 sell and 35-39 buy signals were generated. This combo tends to mark tops but the 92-96 is on a verge of buying so I am still waiting to see how this thing resolves. If the price can hover around $4-4.1K for long enough we might get a true bull signal. The Dow Jones Industrial index has already generated such a signal. My bias is to the downside but if strength is presented here in the next two weeks I might go long. The resolution will be made by the end of the month.
NEW/Jan20: The simultaneous 16-20 sell/35-39 buy signals mentioned in the previous comment did mark the high so far but today the 92-96 index generated a buy signal. This signal is xxed and what it does is it is setting the stage for a potential sell/buy sequence of the 92-96 index to generate a true bull signal in the next 2 weeks (at the current level or above). Either that or we go straight down into bear territory. The jury is still out and I am waiting for the conclusion. Everything points to the end of Jan as the decision time (FED rate announcement?).


HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 49 days, +19.02% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $255.16)
*comment/Jan04: HUI SKI configuration is bullish. The resistance at $230 has been finally broken to the upside. The next target is $270ish, then $290. $230 is now the support.


$NDX - Nasdaq, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, +1.83% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11619)
*comment/Jan06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked an acceleration point. The chart is very bearish now. I am looking for an entry point (short). Ideally, a 16-20 sell signal but it has been avoided for now.
NEW/Jan20: The 16-20 sold but the chart is on a verge of generating a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal and breaking the resistance. The end of Jan seems like the time when the decision will be made if we are renewing the bull market or continuing into a bear decline.


$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 3 days, +0.7% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to SELL 1836/-1.66% or lower; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1867)
*comment/Jan06: The SKI chart structure is bearish. As expected the 35-39 sell signal marked the acceleration point to the downside. I am looking for an entry point (to short). Probably a 16-20 sell signal.
NEW/Jan13: The 16-20 sold but it is very possible that tomorrow both 35-39 and 92-96 generate a buy signal. This combo might mark a breakout so I am watching to see if it can hold before doing anything.
NEW/Jan20: As described above the double 35-39/92-96 signal was generated and so far it is holding. The trendline is already broken out and it all seems bullish if we can hold this level for a week or two. I am ready to go long after the FED rate is announced and if the market keeps holding.


$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 299 days, +123.33% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.48%)
*comment/Dec15: The 10yy is in a bull market. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like a firm resistance and a part of a triple top. The 3.5% mark was hit as I expected and if my triple top theses is correct the target on the downside is 3.0-3.2%ish. In that case, I expect the 92-96 to sell and end the bull market (probably in the last week of Jan 2023). Short-term the 3.35%-3.4% level is firm support that needs to be broken for the move to continue.
NEW/Dec21: As expected, the 3.4% acted as support, and a short-term rally is in progress. The target is 3.9-4.0% area. If 35-39 can buy back (above 4.0%ish) that would be quite bullish and lead to testing the high (not expected).
NEW/Dec28: My upside target is almost achieved (3.9-4.0%). I am observing if this 16-20 sell signal becomes the top and prevents the 35-39 from buying. We are still in a bull market so if the 35-39 index buys back that could cause a further rise to test the top. The markets are becoming increasingly risky.
NEW/Jan04: Hitting 3.9% while selling the 16-20 marked the top for now (just as expected). The end of January will be the decision time, to renew or end the bull market.
NEW/Jan20: The 16-20 sell signal marked the top at 3.89% and now we are back at the 3.4-3.5% area. This is bearish behaviour. The support is breaking and everything is set up to end the bull market. If correct, the time frame is, as I described in the previous post, the end of Jan (FED rate announcement?).


XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed,50 days, +20.98% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $135.67)
*comment/Jan04: XAU is in a SKI bullish configuration. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The resistance at the $120-125 area has been finally broken through. The next target is $140ish. $127 is now the support.


ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days, 5.82% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $16.55)
*comment/Jan06: 92-96 generated a true buy together with the $15 resistance being smashed through. Very bullish. Targets $16.5-17.0 then $18.7 then $23.
NEW/Jan13: Approaching the target. Time for some consolidation.


Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 5 days, +6.92% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY ; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $22654
*comment/Dec11: BTC is in a bear market configuration. Targets on the downside are $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. To negate the bearish configuration a rise over $20-21K is needed.
NEW/Dec21: 16-20 bought and the 35-39 could buy soon for a double buy. I might go long in that case, target 21K.
NEW/Dec28: The 35-39 bought but I didn't. I'll stay away till my targets are hit or the SKI structure changes.
NEW/Jan13: I surely regret not buying that 35-39 signal that I expected to propel the price towards $21K. If the 92-96 buys and can hold until the 218-222 buys, I might go long provided that the tech sector is also on a buy signal. I do not expect it but the setup is there.
NEW/Jan20: Now I am even more sorry that I haven't bought that 35-39 buy signal. The above-mentioned 218-222 buy signal is approaching and the SKI configuration is changing to bullish. I am not going to buy it because it will probably mark a high but I might start looking for a long entry during the correction.


COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 50 days, +25.62% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $41.28)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not sure of the long-term implications of the recent SKI signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Jan13: Today we hit $41.0 which is above the $38 target that I used to mention in my December blogs. The action looks like a breakout above an important resistance so, considering the bullish SKI structure I think it is time to start looking for a long entry. I expect the test of $38 breakout and will be looking to go long around there.


DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 33 days,
-2.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $101.99)
*comment/Dec15: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is turning bearish. My target at 103 was hit today and should represent support. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last defence before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish) which should be used to start shorting.
NEW/Dec31: The SKI structure is now outright bearish. So far no strength has been shown in order to sell the 16-20 index. The $103 critical level is being hit again. It needs to hold or $100 becomes the target.
NEW/Jan04: $103 holding so far. I am still looking for that $106 target to be hit.
NEW/Jan06: The 16-20 index strongly rejected the rise after $106 was approached. Seems like $103 will be tested again and if it doesn't hold the next target is $100.
NEW/Jan13: $103 didn't hold so I expect the 218-222 index, the last remaining piece of the bull market, to be tested soon ($100-101 currently and rising). The end of the month looks like the decision time.
NEW/Jan20: Since my last comment DXY continued its slow decline towards the 218-222 index. The touch/break of it will probably mark some kind of a low but the SKI structure is now deep in the bear territory and I expect this index to sell soon and DXY to fall down to $98 (in a couple of months).


GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 50 days, +21.61% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.42)
*comment/Dec28: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The transition to a true bull market is not possible anymore so we will be relying on 16-20 and 35-39 signals for further assessment. $30 is resistance, and $26 is support.
NEW/Jan04: The 16-20 buy signal caused an immediate explosion to the upside. When in a bullish SKI configuration like today this kind of behaviour is a hallmark of a bull market.


GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 50 days, +22.55% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $40.27)
*comment/Dec28: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The transition to a true bull market is not possible anymore so we will be relying on 16-20 and 35-39 signals for further assessment. $37.5ish is resistance, $30ish is support.
NEW/Jan04: Similar to USERX a 16-20 index buy signal has been avoided in a bullish manner. When in a bullish SKI configuration like today this kind of behaviour is a hallmark of a bull market. The first target is $41.13 then $49.87
NEW/Jan13: We are very close to the first target. Time for some consolidation/correction.


GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 48 days, +9.67% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $179.29)
*comment/Dec31: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes have bought and are holding which implies that the bottom is in. We didn't get the weakness when needed for a transition to a true bull market. That setup is now gone. 16-20 and 35-39 signals are now in charge of what happens so let's wait and see how the situation develops. $168-170 is resistance, and $162 is support. The target on the upside is $176ish. Support is around $164.
NEW/Jan04: Today we hit the 50% Fibo of the whole 2020-2022 correction but momentum might carry us to $175-177 before a correction starts.
NEW/Jan13: The momentum did take us to the next target. Time for some consolidation. If the price keeps exploding like the last week I will not like it and might take some profit.
NEW/Jan20: The price keeps blowing through every resistance level. The next target is $185 ($2000+ spot). If we hit it quickly the 218-222 index will buy but I am afraid that this will be a signal for some serious correction before the bull resumes (down to $1850).


SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 60 days, +23.29% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 22.07/+0.23% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.02)
*comment/Dec28: The SKI structure is bullish. The target is $23.5ish. The short-term resistance is 22.3ish, support is $20.0-20.5. It seems like SLV will need a correction before it will be able to break the resistance.
NEW/Jan20: The above-mentioned resistance at $22.3 has been firm for two weeks now. I expect it to be broken soon and then a quick rally to $23.5 ($26 spot) should start. This will buy the 218-222 index and break out the downtrend line emanating from the 2021 top.


TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 41 days, +1.97% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $108.65)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TIPs I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).
NEW/Jan20: If I bought that 16-20 buy signal mentioned above I'd had taken a profit of around $109 and waited to see if the 92-96 buy signal is going to generate. Sideways to down movement in the next three weeks could lead to a powerful triple buy signal that would mean all clear for the gold bull to shift to a higher gear.


TLT, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 34 days, +0.42% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.2)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks). $101 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TLT I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).
NEW/Jan20: I was right about that 16-20 buy signal mentioned above. At this point, I would take the profit. A setup is now there to generate some truly bullish signals in the next two-three weeks.


UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, 2 days, +2.54% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current 31.44)
*comment/Dec01: The UCO is in bearish configuration. I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support, and $35 is strong resistance.
NEW/Dec11: We are at significant support and the 218-222 index sold. I take that as a bearish sign. This signal is actionable (short side) but I would wait until two closes under $25 or a new 16-20 sell signal before a 218-222 buy signal.
NEW/Dec15: I was right not to go short last week. The 218-222 sell signal caused a short-term rally. If the 218-222 buys back everything will go back to neutral. Having said that, my statement from the last week stays firm, the 16-20 sell signal before the 218-222 buy signal is a selling point. Another selling point is two consecutive closes under $25.0.
NEW/Dec28: The signals are approaching. Let's see the order first and then decide what to do.
NEW/Jan20: So, the support at $25 held and the rebound generated a 35-39 buy signal which could be followed by a 92-96 buy signal. The downtrend line has been broken out and the chart is resolving in a bullish manner. If that is true and if the TLT chart generates a buy signal together with the S and P I will go long UCO.


URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, 6 days, +1.27% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.3)
*comment/Dec16: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 sold too for a double sell signal. That seems dangerous. The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.
NEW/Jan13: A true 35-39 signal has been generated. If the 92-96 buys the structure might turn bullish but for now, I am just watching. $23 is the most important resistance level. $18.0 is support.
NEW/Jan20: Like many other charts the URA is working towards a bullish resolution. The reason that I didn't trust the 92-96 buy signal in October is now behind us, the price rose above $22. If a 92-96 buy signal can be generated above $23 the whole chart will turn very bullish. I have a bunch of U positions that I bought back in 2021 when URA price was at $18ish so I am just watching.


USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, +3.04%; run pattern in-progress 2D/2U/+1.16%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $10.52)
*comment/Jan04: USERX true bull signal has been generated. Notice how today's close was exactly on $10.28 the mega-important level that I have been talking about for the last 10 months (thank you Jeff for pointing this out). Every important move since 2008 has started or stopped at this level. Simultaneously with generating this 92-96 signal and breaking the $10.28 level the price closed above the 200 days MAV for the first time since May 2022. Also, the MACD crossed over today. This all looks very bullish. The first target is $10.78 then $11.56 then $12.33. The short-term support is around 9.5ish.
NEW/Jan06: The price surged above $10.28. That is an important milestone. If in the next few days, the price hits 10.78 I expect some consolidation/correction to take place.
NEW/Jan13: We are very close to that $10.78 target. Some consolidation is in order.
NEW/Jan20: The consolidation is in progress. The 16-20 support is currently at $10ish and rising. The $10.28 important level is being tested from above and holding so far. I expect probably one more test before we are headed towards $10.78 and above ($11.56 next, then $12.33).


Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 58 days, +35.24% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $6672)
*comment/Dec21: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am 35% long and looking to buy more on weak days (added some PRU and RED this week). The 218-222 generated a sell signal as expected. This might be bearish at least short-term because, in the recent two years, this index was acting as resistance. I'd like to see the XGD price around $5400 before I start serious buying. If that doesn't happen I will buy a break above $6000 and follow the momentum but my stops will be tight.
NEW/Dec28: $6000 acts as a firm resistance. It seems I will get that weakness that I was hoping for but the structure will not be as desired. I am not doing anything before either $6000 is broken or the price corrects down to at least $5400.
NEW/Jan06: 70% long. Will stop at this and wait for a correction to add to full exposure. The first target on the upside is around $6800.
NEW/Jan20: Still 70% long. Seems this last week was the consolidation week and lower prices just do not last more than a few hours. I'll stick to my current position but if the $6800 is broken out I might go full 100% long to target the $7800 level and then reduce quickly back to 75% or even more to 50%.