I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months) so from now on I will only post in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone.
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. Soon I will start posting my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months) so from now on I will only post in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone.
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. Soon I will start posting my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months) so from now on I will only post in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone!
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. Soon I will start posting my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 28 days, +9.68%; (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4768)
*Comment/Nov16: The S&P is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The bottom was indicated by the 92-96 sell signal, followed by a swift rise in price that triggered a new 92-96 buy signal, breaking through the downtrend line in the process. While the price action seems bullish, the SKI structure is less than ideal. The July high of $4607 appears to be a target, and even the all-time high (ATH) at $4818 seems attainable. However, I'm not inclined to pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering the possibility of initiating another short position if the 92-96 index issues a sell signal again. We'll see...
NEW/Dec01: The target of $4600 has been achieved. The current momentum is strong, and if the price remains stable in the upcoming days without a significant downturn, it seems likely that the 92-96 buy signal will be sustained. In that case, the all-time high is the next target.
NEW/Dec08:The likelihood of the 92-96 sell signal is diminishing day by day. Depending on the market's performance in the next few days, I am contemplating a long position to target the all-time high (ATH) of $4818 (but probably won't).
HUI, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 2 days, +2.94% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $247.46)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of a 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the HUI index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $245 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate HUI reaching $270 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for HUI is situated around $225 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $195.
NEW/Dec19: The market action today has been remarkable. The breach of the $245 resistance level is an important development, and now we need to see a follow-through to confirm this move. Additionally, the 218-222 index is in the process of generating a buy signal, which will enhance the likelihood of reaching the initial target at $270. With the current momentum (if confirmed), this could potentially happen earlier than previously anticipated, possibly by mid-January 2024. If this materializes, the next target at $300 might be within reach by March 2024. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 30 days, +9.91% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $16811)
*comment/Nov16: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal coincided with the breakthrough of the resistance line, which strengthens its potential impact. An all-time high now appears to be a likely target. Despite this bullish trend, I am not pursuing it nor am I considering shorting as long as the price stays above $15200.
NEW/Dec08: The price is currently less than 5% away from the all-time high (ATH). However, indicators are signalling overbought conditions with significant divergences, and the COT positioning shows crowded bullish sentiment. I plan to initiate a short position once the ATH is reached, especially if the divergences persist.
NEW/Dec14: The price is currently just 1% away from the all-time high (ATH). From a technical perspective, everything appears bullish, and the SKI structure is sound. However, the crowded long positioning in the COT data is a deterrent for me when it comes to going long. Simultaneously, the SKI structure is preventing me from considering a short position so, for the time being, I'm refraining from taking any action in the market.
NEW/Dec19: The price closed at a new all-time high today. Currently, I am simply observing the market, patiently waiting for signs of a top forming before considering the possibility of establishing a short position.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 21 days, +11.84% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $2020)
*comment/Nov20: The Russell chart displays a mixed configuration, 35-39 bullish, 92-96 bearish. The price action has been sideways inside a trading range ($1650-$2000) since May 2022. The short-term bias (next few weeks) is probably bullish but I am looking to go short if we reach the upper boundary of the mentioned trading range.
NEW/Dec14: We've reached the $2000 mark, which has been an unyielding resistance since August 2022. In the next few days, the likely generation of both a 92-96 and a 218-222 buy signal may signify some form of a top. The critical question is whether this will be an intermediate top or merely a temporary, short-term peak before the bull market gathers strength. Depending on the evolving market conditions, I might consider initiating a short position next week, but solely as a short-term scalp trade. What's giving me pause is the prevalence of pessimistic sentiment or "bearish views" across the internet, which suggests that it may not yet be the opportune time for a significant short position.
NEW/Dec19: Both of the anticipated signals, 92-96 and 218-222, have now been generated. As previously mentioned, the crucial question now is whether these signals will lead to the formation of a top. If they do, the key consideration is whether this top will be a short-term one before the bull market gains more momentum, or if it will be an intermediate top signalling a substantial correction. I am waiting for signals that the top is forming to try to catch the correction.
$TNX - 10Y yield, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, -0.81% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.92%)
*comment/DEC15: The recent 92-96 bull market has come to an end. Since the 2020 bottom, there have been three significant rising waves, each marked by a true bull 92-96 signal. The last one pushed yields to a new high at 5%, but it eventually reversed, resulting in a loss. This is a sign of the long-term trend reversing. Currently, I anticipate the formation of a bottom shortly. However, I don't expect the subsequent rally to surpass 4.2-4.4%. Beyond this point, I anticipate that the decline will resume. In the medium term, potential downside targets could be 3.4%, 3.2%, and ultimately 2.8%. By March 2024, yields should be in the 3.2%-3.4% range, and if we reach 2.8%, it might happen towards the end of 2024.
XAU, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 2 days, +2.87% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $127.75)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of a 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the XAU index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $126 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate HUI reaching $145 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for XAU is situated around $110 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be in the $95-$100 area.
NEW/Dec19: The market action today has been remarkable. The breach of the $126 resistance level is an important development, and now we need to see a follow-through to confirm this move. Additionally, the 218-222 index is in the process of generating a buy signal, which will enhance the likelihood of reaching the initial target at $138. With the current momentum (if confirmed), this could potentially happen earlier than previously anticipated, possibly by mid-January 2024. If this materializes, the next target at $165 might be within reach by March 2024. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
ASA, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 20 days, +12.52% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $16.00)
*comment/Dec15: Following today's 92-96 buy signal, the SKI structure for ASA presents a bullish alignment. However, there are some noteworthy issues to consider. In comparison to other gold indices, ASA seems to lack significant short-term momentum. In SKI terms, this is evident as the 35-39 index seems to have more influence than the 92-96 signal at the moment. While the SKI structure is relatively solid, the technical analysis (TA) setup is not particularly favourable. This is primarily due to the way the price interacts with the resistance line, which resembles the formation of a short-term peak. To confirm the 92-96 buy signal, it appears that a 218-222 buy signal will be necessary for the price to close above the trendline, which is currently around $16. This confirmation would strengthen the argument for a sustained bullish move, potentially propelling the price towards the $18.5 target. As long as the spot gold price remains above $1970, such a scenario appears plausible. However, for a more enduring medium-term rally, it's likely that spot gold needs to maintain levels above $2100, serving as a critical catalyst for continued upward movement.
NEW/Dec19: The close today at precisely $16 marks a potential breakout, but it's crucial to see a follow-through to confirm this move. As mentioned earlier, the structure of ASA's SKI configuration appears solid and somewhat distinct from other gold indices, which is an encouraging sign for the sector, especially given ASA's track record of marking significant market turns in recent years. While the 35-39 index has been in charge (on the path), now with the 92-96 on board, everything seems to be aligning for a significant bullish run. The first target is set at $18.5, but the ascent shouldn't necessarily stop there. There's potential for the price to reach $21.5, possibly by March 2024, if this bullish trend has indeed started. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 84 days, +60.35% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $42269
*comment/Oct25: BTC broke out of the 6 months trading range ($25K-$32K). The upside target is 45K.
NEW/Dec08: The price is nearing the $45,000 target, but I anticipate one more push, likely reaching around $48,000, followed by a correction to test the breakout level at $32,000.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, notXXed (true), 5 days, +5.84% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $38.05)
*comment/Dec14: COPX is currently in a mixed configuration, with a 35-39 bullish signal and a 92-95 bearish signal. In the broader context, since the 2021 peak, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle with a horizontal resistance zone between $42 and $44, and a rising support level currently at around $35. The presence of the 35-39 buy signal and S and P 500 bull market suggests support for the price to potentially reach the resistance area ($42-$44) in the coming 4 weeks.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 35-39 SELL, 23 days, -2.17% (while on 92-96 BUY) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 102.54/+0.42% or higher; 218-222 crossed to SELL > to BUY 103.65/+1.51% or higher; current $102.11)
*comment/Sep01: DXY is currently in a bullish constellation, with the price broken out of the downtrend line that emanates from the September 2022 top. The breakout has been marked by xxed double buy signal 35-39/92-96 with the path of trades on the 35-39 index. Having said that the signal still needs a confirmation by rising over the $104.7 resistance level. If successful it seems that $105.39 is the first target, then $107.18.
NEW/Oct02: We are nearing the second target. If this aligns with a 218-222 buy signal, it will either mark a peak or an acceleration point. My inclination is towards a peak, but we'll see.
NEW/Oct09: 218-222 buy signal was generated and it marked a top so far. I have been short DXY since the close of Friday's session. The stop loss is Friday's intraday top.
NEW/Oct13: After marking the top with its 218-222 buy signal, the DXY underwent a sell-off and generated a 218-222 sell signal and is now on the brink of buying it back. Although the current action appears bullish, a breakthrough beyond the recent high is essential for validation. I am still short (by using USD/CHF pair).
NEW/Oct20: The 218-222 index generated a buy signal as was anticipated above but as I said before, although the current action appears bullish, a breakthrough beyond the recent high ($106.79 minimum but 107.35 better) is essential for validation. I am still short by holding a long CHF/USD position. Bough $1.0991, moved stop to $1.1103 now.
NEW/Oct25: I took the profit on my short position.
NEw/Nov03: The 16-20 index initially sold but then quickly reversed to a buy, indicating significant resistance around the previously mentioned $107.35 level. Meanwhile, the 35-39 index is moving towards a sell signal. If the 35-39 does end up selling, it might imply that the recent peak was indeed the top. In this case, most probably the yields topped as well.
NEW/Nov16: The 35-39 index has triggered a sell signal, which, as previously mentioned, heightens the likelihood that we've reached an intermediate top. The downside target is now positioned around $101. It also seems probable that bond yields have reached their peak (intermediate).
NEW/Dec08: I continue to anticipate the downside target of $101 to be reached. The current short-term rally, I attribute primarily to technical factors, notably the achievement of the 200-day moving average (MAV). I think that the continued strong decline in the 10-year yield supports my stand.
NEW/Dec14: The price is indeed approaching the $101 target, as anticipated. This marks a significant long-term support area dating back to the 2011 low. The impending selling signals from both the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes around this level will mark a crucial juncture. Whether it results in a bottom or a breakdown remains to be seen, but my bias is leaning towards a breakdown, although it may take some time to materialize. Monitoring the price action around this level will be key to understanding the market's next move.
GDX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 2 days, +2.67% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL > to BUY 31.72/+0.54% or higher; current $31.55)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has put the SKI configuration of the GDX index in a bullish posture, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. However, there are still significant resistance levels that need to be breached for confirmation of a bullish trend, particularly the $32 level (218-222 index buy). In the short term, the probability of this occurring may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to anticipate GDX reaching $35 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for GDX is situated around $27 and rising. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be at the $23 level.
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has placed the SKI configuration of the GDXJ index in a bullish position, suggesting a solid foundation for potential upward movement. Unlike other gold indices, this buy signal represents a 'true bull' signal, implying the possibility of a long-term bull market. However, similar to other indices, there are still significant resistance levels that must be surpassed to confirm a bullish trend, particularly the $41 level, indicated by the 218-222 index buy signal. In the short term, the likelihood of this occurring may not be very high, particularly in light of the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. Nonetheless, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970, it's not unreasonable to expect GDXJ to reach $51 by March 2024. Currently, the support level for GDXJ is around $35 and is gradually increasing. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $28. Monitoring the price action closely, especially concerning key support levels, will be important in assessing the market's future direction.
GLD, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 41 days, +3.37% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $189.13)
*comment/Oct20: GLD flipped to a bullish constellation with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades but it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active (218-222/439-443/660-664).
The SKI structure of today's double buy signal is sound but there are caveats. A 16-20 sell signal came in between the 35-39 buy and the 92-96 buy which somewhat diminishes the strength of the signal. The stop on this 92-96 buy signal is falling for the next two weeks and if the price falls back below $181 (former resistance) there is a danger that the signal will end quickly. After about two weeks from today, the 16-20 index back prices will rise above the 92-96 index back prices and provide some sort of 'protection'.
After a strong move like the one seen in the past two weeks, which can be categorized as an impulse wave, it is often the case that we get a quick correction to sell/buy the 92-96 index to morphe the signal into a true bull signal while scaring everyone out. I am not predicting that but if it happens the key is to generate a new 92-96 buy before the 35-39 index sells. The key seems to be not to fall under $181 ($1960 spot), and if we do then not for more than a couple of days.
NEW/Nov10: The failure to sustain the $181 ($1960 spot) level is concerning. The immediate target shifts to $175, and if it fails to hold, it suggests a possible breakdown in gold prices. In such a scenario, I am prepared to liquidate all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov16: The initial correction following the 92-96 buy signal appears to be a classic test of the breakout so far. The uptrend line is holding at $175 ($1920 spot), as is the major resistance/support level at $181 ($1960 spot). While we're not completely in the clear yet, the situation is increasingly looking more robust with each passing day. However, the issue is the performance of gold stocks. Their relative weakness compared to the metal itself needs to stop soon for a more cohesive bullish picture.
NEW/Nov30: The test of breakout proved successful, leading to a sustained rally. The 92-96 buy signal has held, lending a solid foundation to the SKI structure. Moving forward, the $180 ($2000 spot) price level should act as support. In my view, a breakthrough above $191 ($2070 spot) could potentially trigger a short squeeze, which in turn might propel gold price toward $2200 and possibly higher.
NEW/Dec01: We've reached $191 ($2070 spot). This level could either represent a peak or, alternatively, we might see a gap up on Monday, potentially leading to a rally towards $2200. While daily indicators signal an overbought condition, the weekly indicators do not reflect the same.
In the Commitments of Traders (COTs) reports, commercials are at maximum short positions, and large speculators are at maximum long, but the positions for small speculators remain neutral. Given this setup, a push towards $2100 might be necessary before any correction occurs, to consolidate the gains we've recently seen. My bias is bullish short-term but medium term we need some cooling off or this rally might become too fast too soon.
NEW/Dec08: A cooling-off phase, mentioned above, is indeed occurring, and the key question is how deep this correction will go. According to the SKI structure, as long as the 92-96 level remains intact, the correction can persist. In numerical terms, this translates to around $176 (approximately $1900 in spot price) under the condition that the decline does not escalate into a full-fledged crash. A more favourable scenario would be if the breakout level becomes a supportive floor at $181 (around $1960 in spot price). In this case, the correction would resemble a test of the breakout level from above.
SLV, 92-96 BUY executed today, OnPath, NotXXed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $22.03)
*comment/Nov30: The SLV chart has transitioned into a bullish configuration, marked by today's 92-96 true buy signal. The SKI structure of this signal appears vulnerable in the short term, yet it seems more robust for the longer term. After a period of brief consolidation or correction, there's a strong likelihood of witnessing a gap up over the $26 resistance level (spot price), potentially leading to a rapid short squeeze.
NEW/Dec08: The 92-96 buy signal marked a high which was expected to a degree but the ensuing crash and eventually a 92-96 sell signal were not. The action of the last few days did not bode well for the SKI structure and the possibility of buying the 92-96 index back for a long-lasting bull market. The ongoing decline must halt promptly, preventing the 35-39 index from triggering a sell signal and mitigating the likelihood of further significant losses. If the 35-39 sell signal does materialize, there remains the potential for an extremely bullish scenario, marked by a triple buy signal, if the price rebounds and surges back towards the $23 range.
NEW/Dec19: The potential 35-39 sell signal was narrowly avoided at the last moment, and now a 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated. The signal is accompanied by a 218-222 buy signal. The SKI structure is not ideal, and these signals will require a price increase beyond the $23 level to be confirmed. Currently, support is situated around $21, and the situation appears to be at a crossroads. In the next few weeks, either this support level will be breached, or the confirmation of the bullish signal will take place.
TIP, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 21 days, +2.49% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.38)
*comment/Dec14: The target range of $107-$108 has indeed been achieved. Today's 92-96 buy signal is likely indicating a temporary high, but it's important to note that the generation of this signal probably marked the recent low at $102 as the bottom. Consequently, the SKI structure has turned bullish, suggesting a shift in market sentiment and potential for further upward movement.
TLT, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 21 days, +9.16% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $98.89)
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 92-96 SELL, 9 days, +12.71% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > to NOT BUY 27.25/-4.59% or lower; current $28.56)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
NEW/Sep21: The price action suggests that a correction might be due soon, if it hasn't already begun.
NEW/Oct04: The correction is now fully underway, with an initial target around the $28 mark.
NEW/Oct20: The correction was over after $28 was almost hit. I have no idea where this is going. The geopolitical situation says higher but if the recession hits then it is lower. The SKI constellation is bullish but despite the geopolitical turmoil the recent high is still holding. I am just watching now.
NEW/Nov01: The pattern is shaping up as some kind of a top. $30-31 is support.
NEW/Dec08: 218-222 sold and 92-96 sold as well. Appears like the support has given up so longer-term I expect the support at $21-22 to be tested. I might try a long position at that level.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 26 days, +3.36% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 28.71/+0.38% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.6)
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
NEW/Nov20: I am worried about the Aussie uranium stocks not following the USA counterparts' breakout. I am 50% long.
NEW/Dec14: It appears that Aussie stocks have potentially reached the bottom of the correction. I've added to my position, and now I'm 75% long, with all positions in Aussie stocks (DYL, BOE, BMN, PDN, AGE, DEV).
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 2 days, +2.46%; run pattern in-progress 2D/1U/+2.46%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.98)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has placed the SKI configuration of the USERX index in a bullish position, indicating a solid foundation for potential upward movement. Nevertheless, several significant issues need consideration. The technical analysis (TA) setup is not favourable due to a major resistance level dating back to the breakdown in 2011, which is located at $10.28. In the short term, the likelihood of surpassing this resistance may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970 and the USERX price can stay above $9.2, it's not unreasonable to expect USERX to reach the $11-$11.5 range by March 2024. Currently, the support level for USERX stands at around $9.2 and is on the rise. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $8.2 or possibly lower.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 22 days, +10.31% (also , 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $7304)
*comment/Nov01: After a double sell signal from the 16-20/35-39 indices, the price began to rise, triggering the 92-96 index buy. However, this was quickly followed by a sell. If this marks the peak, the outlook isn't promising. Yet, if the price manages to stay above $6700, a genuine bullish 92-96 signal could emerge. If it fails to do so, a double-sell signal will be activated. Still, as long as the price remains above $6400, a myriad of both bullish and bearish scenarios remain possible. We'll have to observe how it unfolds. Currently, I'm 30% long.
NEW/Nov03: A genuine 92-96 true bull buy signal has been activated, reinforcing the leadership role of Australian stocks in the gold market and affirming the breakout from the descending channel that started in June. The SKI structure supporting this signal is robust, though there's a caveat: a short-term increase in future back prices over the next three weeks might result in a sell/buy sequence before a stable 92-96 structure emerges.
Therefore, for those acting on today's signal, it would be prudent to set a stop loss at a close below $6671 (Thursday's low), rather than waiting for a 92-96 sell signal. This approach offers a more conservative risk management strategy in response to the potential volatility indicated by the SKI structure.
NEW/Nov10: My stop was hit on Thursday and, also, on Friday when the 92-96 true buy signal ended. The only thing I can say about this is that it looks bearish. A swift reversal and climb above $6700 could restore bullish signals, but currently, the market seems to lack momentum. Should the $6400 support level fail, it would signify an official entry into a bear market. I'm currently 30% long, but it appears this position may soon change to 0% given the unfolding market dynamics.
NEW/Nov16: $6400 level is still holding and so am I. Today a new 35-39 buy signal will be generated. I will cautiously add to my position today to roughly 50% long. A close under 6400 will cause me to sell all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov30: Today, a 92-96 buy signal was generated, aligning with the existing 35-39 buy signal, and the SKI structure supporting this is robust. The immediate target is now set at $7700. The $7700 mark is the red line between the bull and the bear. I am 75% long.
NEW/Dec03: I've reduced my position back to 50% following gold's failure at $2150. The Australian golds are trading within a sideways channel, but the SKI structure remains bullish and robust. I'm watching the $6600 support level closely, hoping it won't be breached. The next hurdle to clear before the bull market gains full momentum is the $7700 resistance level.
I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months) so from now on I will only post in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone.
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. Soon I will start posting my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months) so from now on I will only post in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone.
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. Soon I will start posting my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
USERX
