*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The July close was $4130 so no crash yet. Potentially this rally could go to $4300-4400 but it is time for some consolidation. I have added to my shorts at $4100. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside.
HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 37 days, -12.75% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $210.08)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. $203 was hit intraday on Friday the 15th and the fall continued down to $192.45 so far. The $203 level was recovered and there is a chance that a bottom is forming around the recent low. The rise should continue until a new 16-20 sell signal. Then, either a new leg down to test the $192 low and potentially hit that $180 target or consolidation and rise to buy back the 35-39 and the 218-222 for potential bullishness.
Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 6 days, +1.69% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13159)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11760) has been hit the next target is $10579.
NEW: My target at $13000ish was hit. I expect some consolidation/down to take place.
Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, +1.05% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1941)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534.
NEW: The upside target of $1900ish has been hit. I expect some consolidation to take place.
10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 185 days, +77.24% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.76%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%.
NEW: The 35-39 sold again and the chart pattern is now showing a confirmed triple top. 3.1% is serious resistance and 2.2-2.3% is the target on the downside. I will consider going long TLT if the next 10Y signal is 16-20 sell (2.9-3.1%). If not the next signal will be 92-96 sell which would be the end of the bull market. In that case, I will also be looking for a short side entry (long TLT).
XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 37 days, -9.21% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 103.44/-6.53% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $110.67)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The intraday low on 25th July was $99.81 so my downside target was hit. A rally back to sell 16-20 is underway. The upside target is $110-115ish for now. After that either the test of the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidation and rally to $120 to buy 35-39 and 218-222. The final low shouldn't exceed $90-95 because that is where the long-term bull market support is. If we violate this support the whole bull market will be reconfigured.
ASA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +3.82% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $15.49)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The rise to 16-20 sell signal has finished. The first upside target has been hit ($15ish). Now either the test of the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidation and rally to $16-17ish to buy 35-39.
Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, +6.08% (also, 16-20 to BUY 22465/-5.73% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $23831
*comment: BTC hit my second downside target of $19K. The next target is $13K but first back to $24-26? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.
NEW: 35-39 on the path buy signal has been generated. I think that this signal should propel the price up to 28K but the first stop is $26K. I established a long position at $20.7K. Stop loss is below $20.5K (moved now to break even).
COPX copper miners, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +6.41% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.72)
*comment: The support broke down, and the $30 target has been hit. It will probably mark some kind of a bottom. A bounce to $30-32ish is expected.
NEW: The 16-20 sell has been generated. The low end of the target area has been hit ($30ish). The next step is either drop down to buy 16-20 and test the bottom or consolidation and then run up to buy the 35-39 index ($32-33ish).
GDX,last signal 92-96 SELL, 32 days, -6.61% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 26.25/-2.78% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.0)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The support ($30) fell. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25ish (done).
The support at $25 emanates from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is essential for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed without serious consequences.
NEW: The super important support at $25 is holding for now. The target for the bounce is $28-29ish.
GDXJ, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, +3.64% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $34.72)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The $37 level didn't hold and the price collapsed to hit the target/support area at $26-28. As expected, the bounce back to 16-20 sell signal has finished. Now either the test of the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidation and rally to $37-39ish to buy back 35-39 and 218-222.
GLD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, +1.36% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $166.69)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The $166 support was broken. The next target is $158-160 (done) (spot $1700-1720 ). $158-160 must hold for the bull market to stay inside its current parameters (so far so good).
NEW: The target zone was hit ($158.03 GLD, $1681 spot gold intraday). $170 resistance needs to be overcome for a longer-lasting low to be formed.
NEW: 16-20 sold, I took profit on my long position. I am looking now to reenter if the 16-20 buys again or the price breaks the downtrend line. Ideally, the price should drift down to buy the 16-20 ($160ish) and then turn around to buy 35-39 too, for a double buy while breaking the trendline at the same time. The time frame for this combo is the last week of Aug. If the price just keeps rising I will wait for a 35-39 buy before I decide what is the best setup to enter long again.
SLV, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +3.37% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.03)
*comment: $19 was broken to the downside. The SKI structure is bearish. The second downside target has been hit ($17ish). The support zone should provide a bounce at least back to $19.
NEW: The upside target has been hit ($19ish), 16-20 sold. Now, the next move is either a drop to buy back 16-20 and test the bottom or consolidation and then rally to buy back 35-39 ($19.5-20.0).
TIP, last signal 16-20 SELL, 10 days, +0.22% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to NOT BUY 114.67/-1.11% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.96)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The downside target is still around $110-111 but recent action suggests there might be a rally soon. Let's see if there is enough energy to push the price to a new 16-20 sell signal and potentially lock in the bottom.
NEW: The price gapped over all of the 16-20 back prices and generated a 16-20 sell signal. If the signal can hold until a new 35-39 buy signal the bottom might be in.
TLT, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 8 days, +0.51% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $118.35)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration but it seems at least the medium-term bottom has been confirmed. The price rose above $117 and generated the 35-39 buy signal. The next signal will be either a buyable 16-20 buy or a 92-96 buy.
UCO, last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, +5.86% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $34.88)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is neutral for now but that will change to bearish if the price drops below $34ish or to bullish if the price rises over $45ish. A new 92-96 buy has been generated but it is xxed and the structure is very weak with a high probability of instant selling.
A rise to $42ish will make me consider a short position. The downside target is $22ish but $32 needs to be broken first which is not going to be easy.
NEW: 92-96 sold again which is very bearish. $32 is the last line of support.
URA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, +8.48% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to NOT BUY 18.99/-12.16% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $21.62)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target is $16. The bulls need a price rise over $21 and then to hold that level.
NEW: The price did rise above $21. Now we need to see if it can hold and buy the 35-39 index which would increase the chance that the bottom is in.
USERX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +4.4%; run pattern in-progress 1D/1U/+2.57%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.96)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish (done) and then sub $8.5ish ($8.79 so far).
NEW: The bounce to sell the 16-20 has reached the target. I still expect to test the breakdown level at $10-10.2 but first, some consolidation/down to decide where the support is. The long-term bull market support is positioned at $8.1ish.
UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 244 days, +13.16% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.46)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. The $29 target has been hit. I expect a correction down to touch/break 16-20 index. It is too early to tell but in hindsight, the last two weeks might have marked a significant top.
NEW: I mentioned before that the bull market has reached 221 days cycle and that we might be in a process of forming a significant top. So far day 227 marked the top and that fits nicely with the cycle length. The drop back to 16-20 buy has finished which increases the chance that the UUP price has topped. The order of indices now allows for a double sell signal 16-20/35-39 if the price rises above $28.8 or for a simple 35-39 sell signal if the trendline is broken to the downside (around $28). The time frame for this is the last two weeks of August. For the bulls to take control back the price needs to break above the recent high of $29.
Australian XGD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, +4.25% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $5475)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. The long-term support was at $5600-5800 and had been violated in a severe manner. Because of this, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is now being recalibrated. The $4765 target has been hit five times and provided firm support every time. I am done adding to long positions and getting ready to unload some around $5400-5600.
NEW: We have entered the resistance zone. I reduced my position when the $5400 was hit and will do the same when $5600 is hit (35-39 index buy). I am 50% long in my trading account.
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