The State Of Indices, 18/8/2022

 SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days, +2.94% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $4274)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The July close was $4130 so no crash yet. Potentially this rally could go to $4300-4400. I have added to my shorts at $4100. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside.
NEW: I did predict the possibility for SandP rally to reach $4400 but sure didn't expect it in such a relentless manner. My position, which I added to at $4230, was stopped out (negligible loss). I still have half of my original short position ($4176, took half profit at $3717) and the short position I established at $4100. Will add more above $4400 but this is getting crazy so I will have very tight stops on that one. I am ready to ride the two existing positions up to $4700-4800 but if we get there I will reconsider what to do.
NEW: Another try at shorting this rally, bought VIX Sept22 (bought $23.62, very tight stop 22.98, take profit if SandP drops down to touch/buy 16-20 around $4100).

HUI, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, -2.4% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $204.19)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. $203 was significant support and was breached and recovered quickly with the low so far at $192.45. There is a chance that a bottom is forming around that low. The rise continued until the 16-20 sell signal. A rise over $220 would put the price back above the old uptrend line and potentially buy back the 35-39. So far the momentum indicates that the target is at least $223 which makes the 35-39 buy probable. Such a buy increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom that might last for months.
NEW: The rise over the old trendline was rejected and now it seems that the 16-20 buy has an equal chance of being the next signal as the 35-39. In that case, a stage would be set for a double buy and forming a double bottom around Aug low. If that low fails my old target of $180 gets activated again. If $180 fails we will see $150-160 by October.

Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 13 days, +4.1% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13470)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration but the relentless push to the upside has now broken through the resistance line and is probably going to buy back the 92-96 index. This has the potential to change the chart structure to bullish. Right now the sentiment feels like everyone wants to jump back in for the next bull market. We will see how far that can take us. I am not jumping on that wagon until I see what will happen after the 92-96 buy where I will definitely open a short position.

Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days, +3.41% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1987)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration but a relentless push to the upside has broken through the resistance line and is heading towards a 92-96 index buy signal. This has the potential to change the chart structure to bullish. Right now the sentiment feels like everyone wants to jump back in for the next bull market. We will see how far that can take us (probably $2100). I am not jumping on that wagon until I see what will happen after the 92-96 buy where I will open a short position for at least a short-term trade.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 192 days, +85.45% (also, 16-20 to SELL 2.92/+1.04% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.89%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is not on the verge of a meltdown anymore. For such a scenario we will probably need a ten-year yield back at 3.5% and above.
NEW: The 35-39 sold again and the chart pattern is now showing a confirmed triple top. 3.1% is serious resistance and 2.2-2.3% is the target on the downside. I will consider going long TLT if the next 10Y signal is 16-20 sell (2.9-3.1%). If not the next signal will be 92-96 sell which would be the end of the bull market. In that case, I will also be looking for a short side entry (long TLT).

XAU, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, -5.18% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.0)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The intraday low on 25th July was $99.81. A rally back to sell 16-20 has finished. The upside target zone of $110-115ish has been entered. Based on the momentum the next signal is most probably going to be the 35-39 buy. Such a signal will improve the chances that the recent low was the bottom (months). If the next signal is a 16-20 buy, the recent bottom will be tested with a possibility of a double buy but also a risk to finally flush the stops around $90-95.

ASA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 12 days, +1.14% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $15.09)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The rise to 16-20 sell signal has finished. The first upside target has been hit ($15ish). Now either test the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidate and rally to $16-17ish to buy 35-39. If 16-20 buys first there is a chance of a double buy around the recent low.

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 26 days, +3.82% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $23324
*comment: BTC hit my second downside target of $19K. The next target is $13K but first back to $24-26? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is probably the second part of 2023.
NEW: 35-39 on the path buy signal has been generated. I think that this signal should propel the price up to 28K but the first stop is $26K. I established a long position at $20.7K. Stop loss is below $20.5K (sold half at $24.5 and moved the stop for the rest to $22K).

COPX copper miners, last signal 16-20 SELL, 12 days, +7.2% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.95)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. The expected bounce to $32-33ish is finishing and will probably buy the 35-39 index. If not the next signal is going to be 16-20 buy. This is a potential buy with the possibility to form a double buy with the 35-39.

GDX,last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, -4.98% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $25.78)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The downside target of $25 has been hit. The support at $25 emanates from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is essential for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed without serious consequences.
NEW: The super important support at $25 is holding for now. The target for the bounce is $28-29ish. If the price moves to the downside again there is a potential 16-20 buy around $25.2 to protect the important support and set up a potential double buy. Also, if this support cannot hold the bull market support from 2016 will be broken so watch out.

GDXJ, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, -4.24% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.08)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The price hit the target/support area at $26-28. As expected, the bounce back to 16-20 sell signal has finished. Now either the test of the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidation and rally to $37-39ish to buy back 35-39.
NEW: so far it seems like 16-20 buy signal will be the next. If it cannot hold after that a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in cards.

GLD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 11 days, -0.06% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $164.35)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The target zone was hit ($158.03 GLD, $1681 spot gold intraday). $170 resistance needs to be overcome for a longer-lasting low to be formed. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to stay inside its current parameters (so far so good).
NEW: 16-20 sold, I took profit on my long position. I am looking now to reenter if the 16-20 buys again or the price breaks out through the resistance line.
NEW: The 218-222 bought back (bullish). The momentum indicates that the 35-39 buy is probably the next signal to generate but $166 is so far a firm resistance ($1800 spot). If $166 cannot be overcome quickly the 218-222 will sell again and that could be a problem. I will wait for the next signal before deciding the best setup to enter long again.

SLV, last signal 16-20 SELL, 12 days, -0.87% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.25)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The second downside target has been hit ($17ish). The support zone provided a bounce back to $19 (old support). The 16-20 sold and it seems 35-39 buy is coming ($19.5-20.0). It all seems like a significant bottom is being put in but wait until the 35-39 buy is generated. A test of the bottom is still very possible (with a dive to $16ish or even lower).

TIP, on 35-39 BUY, 6 days, -0.33% (also, 16-20 to BUY 114.96/-0.08 or lower; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.05)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The price gapped over all of the 16-20 back prices and generated a 16-20 sell signal and also a new 35-39 buy signal. If this signal can hold an important bottom might be in. Otherwise, the $110 area is the target on the downside.

TLT, 16-20 crossed to BUY, offpath, notxxed (also, 16-20 to SELL tomorrow 117.4/+2.34% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $114.72)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration but it seems at least the medium-term bottom has been confirmed. The price rose above $117 and generated the 35-39 buy signal. The next signal will be either a buyable 16-20 buy or a 92-96 buy.
NEW: 16-20 buy was generated. Inversely the 10y yield chart is about to sell 16-20. During the next few days, I will be looking to go long TLT, especially if the 10y chart is selling its 92-96 bull market.

UCO, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, +2.04% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $33.51)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is neutral for now but that will change to bearish if the price drops below $34ish or to bullish if the price rises over $45ish.
NEW: Two days ago the price gapped below the important $32-34 region but then quickly recovered showing strong support. The battle is still on, the downside pressure exercised by the short-term downtrend line ($36-37ish) and the long-term uptrend line ($32-34ish). If today's 16-20 buy signal is broken to the downside I will take that as the SKI configuration changed to bearish and start looking for a short entry.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, -5.65% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.38)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup more.

USERX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 12 days, -0.1%; run pattern in-progress 1U/1D/-4.32%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.53)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish (done) and then sub $8.5ish ($8.79 so far).
NEW: The bounce did sell the 16-20 as expected. It reached the breakdown level at $10-10.2 which was my target zone. I wonder if we will have a close over the above-mentioned critical $10.28 level? If yes that would be a good sign for further strength, maybe to reach the resistance at 10.6ish.
NEW: So far the $10.28 resistance is firm, not a good sign for the strength of the current setup. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every important move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. For bulls cause, this level must be overcome otherwise $7.5 starts looking like a legitimate target.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 251 days, +13.44% (also, 16-20 to SELL 28.66/+0.46% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.53)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. The $29 target has been hit. I expect a correction down to touch/break 16-20 index. It is too early to tell but in hindsight, hitting the $29 might have marked a significant top.
NEW: I mentioned before that the bull market has reached 221 days cycle and that we might be in a process of forming a significant top. So far day 227 marked the top and that fits nicely with the cycle length. The drop back to 16-20 buy has finished which increases the chance that the UUP price has topped. The order of indices now allows for a double sell signal 16-20/35-39 if the price rises above $28.8 or for a simple 35-39 sell signal if the trendline is broken to the downside (around $28). The time frame for this is the last two weeks of August. For the bulls to take control back the price needs to break above the recent high of $29.
NEW: We are very close to selling 16-20 and setting the stage for a double sell signal. If the double sell happens in conjunction with a 10y yield bull market sell signal I will short UUP and go long TLT.

Australian XGD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, +1.72% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $5343)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. The long-term support was at $5600-5800 and had been violated in a severe manner. Because of this, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is now being recalibrated. The $4765 target has been hit five times and provided firm support every time. I am done adding to long positions and getting ready to unload some around $5400-5600.
NEW: We have entered the resistance zone. I reduced my position when the $5400 was hit and will do the same when $5600 is hit (35-39 index buy). I am 50% long in my trading account.