USERX and XGD.AX charts

 USERX

USERX long indices

XGD.AX

The State Of Indices, 30/8/2022

 SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 18 days, -2.92% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 4152.11/+3.01% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4030)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The July close was $4130 so no crash yet. Potentially this rally could go to $4300-4400 (so far $4325). I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside.
NEW/30Aug: The stop on the remaining half of my VIX Aug22 long position has been hit so this position is closed (nice profit). Today's 16-20 buy signal needs to stop the fall or we are heading towards a bearish 35-39 sell signal. If the price can rise above $4300 and buy the 92-96 it will change the configuration to bullish. I am positioned for the 35-39 sell signal. My position consists of a half position (short SandP) that I opened at $4176 (took half profit at $3717) and the whole position (short SandP) that I added at $4100.

HUI, 16-20 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $195.15)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The rise over the old trendline was rejected and now the 16-20 signal has been generated. As I said before, the stage is now set for a double buy and forming a double bottom around Aug low or if that fails my old target of $180 gets activated again. $180 is the bull market support going back to 2015 therefore breaking this support might be dangerous ($140-150 target).

Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 21 days, -3.53% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12484)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The June bottom was at $11037 and since then bear market rally lifted the price back to $13750 (my target was $13500). The resistance line (going back to the January top) was violated for a short period but now the price is back below the line. $13500-13700 is the resistance that needs to be broken for 92-96 buy to be generated for a potential bullishness but more probably we will first test the support ($12500). A drop to this support will be marked with a 16-20 buy signal and if it can hold a new bull market could be born if the price rises over $13500 (I might switch to long in that case). For me, a more probable scenario is breaking $12500 for a new leg down to reach my original target at $10579. We will see, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.
NEW/30Aug: As expected, the $12500 was hit finally. See my comments above for further scenarios.

Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, -2.02% (also, 16-20 to BUY1882.44/-0.03% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1882)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 index rejected the bear market rally and it seems we are entering a correction down to buy the 16-20 index. There is a scenario among many other scenarios where after the 16-20 buy signal the 92-96 buys as well in which case I might switch to the long side. For now, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 197 days, +99.1% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 crossed to BUY>>to SELL $2.81/-9.65% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.11%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. 16-20 sold signalling that we are entering an important juncture. Scenarios are in play: first, up over 3.1% to buy back 35-39 and negate the triple top for a new leg up. Second, up over 3.1% to buy back 35-39 index and then a quick sell of 35-39 and 92-96 for the end of the bull market (I go long TLT). Third, down to sell 92-96 and end the bull market (I go long TLT).
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 generated buy signal, that eliminates the third scenario. 3.17% is the next resistance, then 3.25%. After considering daily and weekly charts it is possible to say that no breakout is confirmed before these levels are broken. All indicators are close to the overbought territory. Continuation up to 3.2-3.25% will stretch everything up too much so I'd say if we get there that would be some kind of the top followed by a test of the support. Support is around 2.9% today and rising.

XAU, 16-20 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true)(also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.51)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The intraday low on 25th July was $99.81. A rally back to sell 16-20 has finished and marked the short-term top. Seems like a 35-39 buy will be avoided for now. That is not good because this buy would improve the chances that the recent low was the bottom. If the next signal is a 16-20 buy, the recent bottom will be tested with a possibility of a double buy but also a risk to finally flush the stops around $90-95.
NEW/30Aug: 16-20 has bought but the way the 35-39 buy was rejected is discouraging. Seems like a drop to the $90-95 area is probable. On the other hand, the setup for a double buy is still active but now I'd give it a 30% chance.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, -0.21% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.34)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The rise to 16-20 sell was successful but then the 35-39 rejected further rise. This doesn't look particularly bullish but the setup is building up for a double buy 16-20/35-39 to potentially mark the bottom. If 16-20 buy cannot stop the fall then the recent low will be tested and probably exceeded (target $12ish).
NEW/30Aug: ASA and XGD.AX are the only two gold indexes that have generated 35-39 buy and 16-20 buy. If this is bullish the 35-39 needs to hold or at least buy back quickly if sold.

Bitcoin, last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, +0.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20180
*comment: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price advance was rejected at $25K and the 35-39 index sold so it is probably starting a new leg down. The next target is $13K. Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is probably the second part of 2023. The bulls need a new 35-39 or 92-96 buy signal to stop the next leg down.

COPX copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 3 days, -3.59% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.38)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. The expected advance to $32-33 is being rejected by the 35-39 index resistance. There is still a good chance for this index to buy before the 16-20 buys which would be bullish. If 16-20 buys first there is a possibility to form a double buy with the 35-39. If this signal (16-20) cannot hold a new leg down is probable ($22ish target). For now, my bias is bullish but that can change quickly.
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 finally generated the buy signal. This improves the chance that the July bottom was a significant one. A correction to 16-20 buy should be expected now.

GDX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 3 days, -5.82% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $24.61)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The super important support at $25 is holding for now. Today's 16-20 buy improves the chance that the support will hold. A potential double buy has been set up. If the 16-20 buy signal cannot hold the bull market structure from 2016 will be broken so watch out.
NEW/30Aug: 16-20 bought but the $25 level is barely holding. The double buy setup is still alive but $25 must hold. I think that flushing of stops underneath the recent low ($24.38) is now inevitable. After that, I have no idea but it will be hard to recover.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -6.35% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to BUY 31.21/+2.19% or higher; 92-96on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.54)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16-20 index buy signal has been generated. The setup has been completed for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If 16-20 buy cannot hold a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in the cards.
NEW/30Aug: 35-39 keeps rejecting the buy signal. A quick drop to flash out the stops underneath the recent low ($28.88) now looks probable. See the targets above.

GLD, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -1.15% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $161.86)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. If you remember, when the 16-20 sell was generated I said that the optimal scenario for confirming the bottom would be a drift down to buy the 16-20 and then buy the 35-39 for a double buy and simultaneous break out of the downtrend line. The initial momentum after the 16-20 sell was upwards so I abandoned this scenario in favour of a 35-39 buy signal. As soon as I changed my mind the momentum died and here we are, the 16-20 buy was generated today making my original scenario valid. The problem is along the way the 218-222 index was bought and then sold so I do not know how much that changes the potential of the setup. Anyway, we are back at the crucial support ($158-160) that must hold or the bull market structure (from 2016) will be damaged. If the support holds the double buy is warranted and a massive double bottom will be confirmed. If the support doesn't hold $150-152 is the initial target ($1600-1640 spot gold).
NEW:/30Aug: So far $160 is holding but the 35-39 keeps rejecting the buy signal. It wouldn't take much of a rise to generate this signal but it seems like the market wants to drag it out to the last moment, as usual. September?

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -2.48% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.29)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The 16-20 index generated a buy signal. That sets the stage for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If successful a double bottom pattern will emerge. If 16-20 cannot hold $15-16ish is the initial target.

TIP, on 35-39 BUY, 14 days, -0.26% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.13)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The price gapped over all of the 16-20 back prices and generated a 16-20 sell signal and also a new 35-39 buy signal. If this signal can hold an important bottom might be in (so far so good). Otherwise, the $110 area is the target on the downside.

TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, -0.08% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $112.68)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That is pretty bearish and a test of the low should be expected. This is good for the dollar and bad for equity markets (10yy up). Having said that, the weekly and daily charts show that there is significant support around $109.48 that needs to be broken before the breakdown is confirmed. If successful the target is $101ish but my bias, for now, is that it will hold.

UCO, 35-39 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 to SELL 33.94/-13.77% or lower; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $39.36)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is neutral for now but will change to bearish if the price drops below $34ish or bullish if the price rises over $45ish.
NEW/25Aug: The support is holding and the resistance line has given up. It all seems bullish if the 35-39/92-96 double buy can be generated.
NEW/30Aug: 35-39 bought one day after 16-20 sold. Potentially a top pattern but let's see. If it can break through and buy 92-96 it will be very bullish.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days, +8.29% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $23.39)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup.
NEW/25Aug: The execution of the 16-20 buy was marked with an explosion over the critical $22 level. Very bullish. I have a significant Uranium stocks position in my core portfolio. Today I added more to my trading portfolio (Sprott Uranium Stocks ETF and some Aussie stocks). Will sell my trading positions at URA $25ish. After that, we will see.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, 2 days, -1.09%; run pattern in-progress 3U/2D/-2.44%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to BUY 9.23/+1.76% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.07)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/30Aug: 35-39 keeps rejecting the buy signal, not very bullish. Time is running out quickly.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 259 days, +15.86% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.14)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. For the last few weeks, I have been saying that an important top might have been forming around the $29 level and that a double sell 16-20/35-39 would be a confirmation. The stage for this double sell was set 7 days ago with the 16-20 sell but the price exploded after that, avoiding a 35-39 sell. Today it is holding above $29 which was the 17th July high. The setup for a double sell is valid for another week. After that, it will all look like a breakout. The TLT falling below $109.48 would corroborate that this breakout is for real (10yy probably above 3.25% in that case).

Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, -4.29% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to SELL $4795/-0.27% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4808)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4765 target was hit the rally started but it fell short of buying the 35-39 index and therefore confirming the bottom. Right now the whole move after the bottom looks like a test of the breakdown level from below. If the next sequence of events is 16-20buy/35-39buy I will add to my longs with the stop loss at 35-39 sell. If the 16-20 buys without 35-39 buying I will sell the rest of my positions on a close below the 16-20 buy-in price. If the next signal is a 35-39 buy signal I will just stay long, no additions, stop loss 35-39 sell. I am 50% long in my trading account.
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 index buy has been generated and today will be accompanied by a 16-20 buy signal. I added to my trading positions on Wed. I am back to 75% long. Stop loss is a 35-39 sell signal. At a 16-20 sell signal, I will again reduce my trading positions.

USERX and XGD.AX charts

 USERX

USERX long indices

XGD.AX

USERX and XGD.AX charts

 USERX

USERX long indices

XGD.AX

The State Of Indices, 25/8/2022

 SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 15 days, -0.27% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4140)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The July close was $4130 so no crash yet. Potentially this rally could go to $4300-4400 (so far $4325). I have added to my shorts at $4100 and opened a long VIX Aug22 position when the price was above $4300. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside.
NEW/25Aug: I took half profit on my VIX Aug22 position when it hit $26. For the rest moved the stop loss to $24.5 (bought at 23.125). My position now consists of a half position (short SandP) that I opened at $4176 (took half profit at $3717), the whole position (short SandP) that I added at $4100 and a half position VIX Aug22 that I bought at $23.125 (long).

HUI, last signal 16-20 SELL, 10 days, -1.22% (also, 16-20 to BUY 206.54/-0.06% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $206.66)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The rise over the old trendline was rejected and now it seems that the next signal will be a 16-20 buy signal. In that case, a stage would be set for a double buy and forming a double bottom around Aug low. If that fails my old target of $180 gets activated again. $180 is the bull market support going back to 2015 therefore breaking this support might be dangerous ($140-150 target).

Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 18 days, -0.18% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12917)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The June bottom was at $11037 and since then bear market rally lifted the price back to $13750 (my target was $13500). The resistance line (going back to the January top) was violated for a short period but now the price is back below the line. $13500-13700 is the resistance that needs to be broken for 92-96 buy to be generated for a potential bullishness but more probably we will first test the support ($12500). A drop to this support will be marked with a 16-20 buy signal and if it can hold a new bull market could be born if the price rises over $13500 (I might switch to long in that case). For me, a more probable scenario is breaking $12500 for a new leg down to reach my original target at $10579. We will see, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.

Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days, +0.7% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1935)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The bear market rally was rejected by the 92-96 index and it seems we are entering a correction down to buy 16-20 index. There is a scenario among many other scenarios where after 16-20 buy signal the 92-96 buys as well in which case I might switch to the long side. For now, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 197 days, +99.1% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 crossed to BUY>>to SELL $2.81/-9.65% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.11%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. 16-20 sold signalling that we are entering an important juncture. Scenarios are in play: first, up over 3.1% to buy back 35-39 and negate the triple top for a new leg up. Second, up over 3.1% to buy back 35-39 index and then a quick sell of 35-39 and 92-96 for the end of the bull market (I go long TLT). Third, down to sell 92-96 and end the bull market (I go long TLT).
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 generated buy signal, that eliminates the third scenario. 3.17% is the next resistance, then 3.25%. After considering daily and weekly charts it is possible to say that no breakout is confirmed before these levels are broken. All indicators are close to the overbought territory. Continuation up to 3.2-3.25% will stretch everything up too much so I'd say if we get there that would be some kind of the top followed by a test of the support. Support is around 2.9% today and rising.

XAU, last signal 16-20 SELL, 11 days, -3.61% (also, 16-20 to BUY 107.98/+0.19% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.77)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The intraday low on 25th July was $99.81. A rally back to sell 16-20 has finished and marked the short-term top. Seems like a 35-39 buy will be avoided for now. That is not good because this buy would improve the chances that the recent low was the bottom. If the next signal is a 16-20 buy, the recent bottom will be tested with a possibility of a double buy but also a risk to finally flush the stops around $90-95.

ASA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 17 days, -1.41% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 14.93/+1.5% or higher; 35-39 to BUY 14.93/+1.5% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.71)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The rise to 16-20 sell was successful but then the 35-39 rejected further rise. This doesn't look particularly bullish but the setup is building up for a double buy 16-20/35-39 to potentially mark the bottom. If 16-20 buy cannot stop the fall then the recent low will be tested and probably exceeded (target $12ish).

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 33 days,
-3.74% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to SELL 20779/-3.92% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $21626
*comment: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price advance was rejected at $25K and the price is now heading down to potentially sell the 35-39 index. If 35-39 index sells we are probably starting a new leg down. The next target is $13K. Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is probably the second part of 2023. The bulls need a break above $25K to target 30K.

COPX copper miners, 35-39 crossed to BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true) (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 to SELL 28.24/-10.58% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.58)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. The expected advance to $32-33 is being rejected by the 35-39 index resistance. There is still a good chance for this index to buy before the 16-20 buys which would be bullish. If 16-20 buys first there is a possibility to form a double buy with the 35-39. If this signal (16-20) cannot hold a new leg down is probable ($22ish target). For now, my bias is bullish but that can change quickly.
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 finally generated the buy signal. This improves the chance that the July bottom was a significant one. The next target is $34ish where the downtrend line resistance currently sits.

GDX, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to SELL 26.28/+1.43% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $25.91)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The super important support at $25 is holding for now. Today's 16-20 buy improves the chance that the support will hold. A potential double buy has been set up. If the 16-20 buy signal cannot hold the bull market structure from 2016 will be broken so watch out.

GDXJ, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.4)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16-20 index buy signal has been generated. The setup has been completed for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If 16-20 buy cannot hold a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in cards.

GLD, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to SELL 165.03/+1.09% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $163.25)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. If you remember, when 16-20 sell was generated I said that the optimal scenario for confirming the bottom would be a drift down to buy the 16-20 and then buy the 35-39 for a double buy and simultaneous break out of the downtrend line. The initial momentum after the 16-20 sell was upwards so I abandoned this scenario in favour of a 35-39 buy signal. As soon as I changed my mind the momentum died and here we are, the 16-20 buy was generated today making my original scenario valid. The problem is along the way the 218-222 index was bought and then sold so I do not know how much that changes the potential of the setup. Anyway, we are back at the crucial support ($158-160) that must hold or the bull market structure (from 2016) will be damaged. If the support holds the double buy is warrantied and a massive double bottom will be confirmed. If the support doesn't hold $150-152 is the initial target ($1600-1640 spot gold).

SLV, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to SELL 18.8/+6.64% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.63)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The 16-20 index generated a buy signal today. That sets the stage for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If successful a double bottom pattern will emerge. If 16-20 cannot hold $15-16ish is the initial target.

TIP, on 35-39 BUY, 11 days, -0.03% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.39)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The price gapped over all of the 16-20 back prices and generated a 16-20 sell signal and also a new 35-39 buy signal. If this signal can hold an important bottom might be in (so far so good). Otherwise, the $110 area is the target on the downside.

TLT, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $111.22)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That is pretty bearish and a test of the low should be expected. This is good for the dollar and bad for equity markets (10yy up). Having said that, the weekly and daily charts show that there is significant support around $109.48 that needs to be broken before the breakdown is confirmed. If successful the target is $101ish but my bias, for now, is that it will hold.

UCO, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, +18.57% (also, 16-20 to SELL 38.97/+0.08% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $38.94)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is neutral for now but that will change to bearish if the price drops below $34ish or to bullish if the price rises over $45ish.
NEW/25Aug: The support is holding and the resistance line has given up. It all seems bullish if the 35-39/92-96 double buy can be generated.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, +4.17% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.5)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup.
NEW/25Aug: The execution of the 16-20 buy was marked with an explosion over the critical $22 level. Very bullish. I have a significant Uranium stocks position in my core portfolio. Today I added more to my trading portfolio (Sprott Uranium Stocks ETF and some Aussie stocks). Will sell my trading positions at URA $25ish. After that, we will see.

USERX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 17 days, -0.31%; run pattern in-progress 4D/2U/+1.56%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 9.55/+0.42% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.51)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/25Aug: Nice move today accompanied by 16-20 buys across the board of gold market indices. Probably buyable signals but I would lighten up around 10.28 if the rally ensues.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 256 days, +15.59% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.07)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. For the last few weeks, I have been saying that an important top might have been forming around the $29 level and that a double sell 16-20/35-39 would be a confirmation. The stage for this double sell was set 4 days ago with the 16-20 sell but the price exploded after that, avoiding a 35-39 sell. Today it is holding above $29 which was the 17th July high. The setup for a double sell is valid for another week. After that, it will all look like a breakout. The TLT falling below $109.48 would corroborate that this breakout is for real (10yy probably above 3.25% in that case).

Australian XGD, 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY $5270/+4.92% or higher; 35-39 to SELL $4893/-2.6% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $5023)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4765 target was hit the rally started but it fell short of buying the 35-39 index and therefore confirming the bottom. Right now the whole move after the bottom looks like a test of the breakdown level from below. If the next sequence of events is 16-20buy/35-39buy I will add to my longs with the stop loss at 35-39 sell. If the 16-20 buys without 35-39 buying I will sell the rest of my positions on a close below the 16-20 buy-in price. If the next signal is a 35-39 buy signal I will just stay long, no additions, stop loss 35-39 sell. I am 50% long in my trading account.
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 index buy has been generated and today will be accompanied by a 16-20 buy signal. I added to my trading positions on Wed. I am back to 75% long. Stop loss is a 35-39 sell signal. At a 16-20 sell signal, I will again reduce my trading positions.

USERX and XGD.AX charts

 USERX

USERX long indices

XGD.AX

USERX and XGD.AX chart

 USERX

USERX long indices

XGD.AX

USERX and XGD.AX charts

 USERX

USERX long indices

XGD.AX

The State Of Indices, 22/8/22

 SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days, +1.84% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $4228)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The July close was $4130 so no crash yet. Potentially this rally could go to $4300-4400. I have added to my shorts at $4100. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside.
NEW: I did predict the possibility for SandP rally to reach $4400 but sure didn't expect it in such a relentless manner. My position, which I added to at $4230, was stopped out (negligible loss). I still have half of my original short position ($4176, took half profit at $3717) and the short position I established at $4100. Will add more above $4400 but this is getting crazy so I will have very tight stops on that one. I am ready to ride the two existing positions up to $4700-4800 but if we get there I will reconsider what to do.
NEW: Another try at shorting this rally, bought VIX Sept22 (bought $23.12, very tight stop 22.98 (stop was hit so I am out), take profit if SandP drops down to touch/buy 16-20 around $4100).
NEW: I did short again buy buying back VIX Sept22 during Friday Asian session (bought $23.125, after the USA session my stop is already in green 23.368, will take profit if SandP drops down to touch/buy 16-20 around $4100).

HUI, last signal 16-20 SELL, 7 days, -4.49% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $199.81)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. $203 was significant support and was breached and recovered quickly with the low so far at $192.45. There is a chance that a bottom is forming around that low. The rise continued until the 16-20 sell signal. A rise over $220 would put the price back above the old uptrend line and potentially buy back the 35-39. So far the momentum indicates that the target is at least $223 which makes the 35-39 buy probable. Such a buy increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom that might last for months.
NEW: The rise over the old trendline was rejected and now it seems that the next signal will be a 16-20 buy signal. In that case, a stage would be set for a double buy and forming a double bottom around Aug low. If that fails my old target of $180 gets activated again. $180 is the bull market support going back to 2015 therefore breaking this support might be dangerous ($140-150 target).

Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 15 days, +2.33% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13242)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. June bottom was at $11037 and since then bear market rally lifted the price back to $13750 (my max target was $13500). The resistance line (going back to the January top) was violated for a short period but now the price is back below the line. $13500-13700 is the resistance that needs to be broken for 92-96 buy to be generated for a potential bullishness but more probably we will first test the support ($12500). A drop to this support will be marked with a 16-20 buy signal and if it can hold a new bull market could be born if the price rises over $13500 (I might switch to long in that case). For me, a more probable scenario is a break of $12500 for a new leg down to reach my original target at $10579. We will see, I am short this market through SandP and VIX.

Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, +1.85% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1957)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration but a relentless push to the upside has broken through the resistance line and is heading towards a 92-96 index buy signal. This has the potential to change the chart structure to bullish. Right now the sentiment feels like everyone wants to jump back in for the next bull market. We will see how far that can take us (probably $2100). I am not jumping on that wagon until I see what will happen after the 92-96 buy where I will open a short position for at least a short-term trade. On the other hand, if correction to a 16-20 buy signal happens first and then a 92-96 buy is generated I am probably switching to long.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 194 days, +91.6% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.99%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is not on the verge of a meltdown anymore. For such a scenario we will probably need a ten-year yield back at 3.5% and above.
NEW: The 35-39 sold again and the chart pattern shows a confirmed triple top. 3.1% is serious resistance and 2.2-2.3% is the target on the downside. I will consider going long TLT if the next 10Y signal is 16-20 sell (2.9-3.1%). If not the next signal will be 92-96 sell which would be the end of the bull market. In that case, I will also be looking for a short side entry (long TLT).
NEW 22/Aug: 16-20 sold signalling that we are entering an important juncture. Scenarios are in play: first, up over 3.1% to buy back 35-39 and negate the triple top for a new up leg. Second, up over 3.1% to buy back 35-39 index and then a quick sell of 35-39 and 92-96 for the end of the bull market (I go long TLT). Third, down to sell 92-96 and end the bull market (I go long TLT).

XAU, last signal 16-20 SELL, 8 days, -6.92% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $104.07)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The intraday low on 25th July was $99.81. A rally back to sell 16-20 has finished and marked the short-term top. Seems like a 35-39 buy will be avoided for now. That is not good because this buy would improve the chances that the recent low was the bottom (months). If the next signal is a 16-20 buy, the recent bottom will be tested with a possibility of a double buy but also a risk to finally flush the stops around $90-95.

ASA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 14 days, -1.47% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.7)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The rise to 16-20 sell signal has finished. The first upside target has been hit ($15ish). Now either test the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidate and rally to $16-17ish to buy 35-39. If 16-20 buys first there is a chance of a double buy around the recent low. If this potential buy signal cannot hold there is a danger of a new leg down.

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days, -6.7% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20960
*comment: BTC hit my second downside target of $19K. The next target is $13K but first back to $24-26? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is probably the second part of 2023.
NEW: 35-39 on the path buy signal has been generated. I think that this signal should propel the price up to 28K but the first stop is $26K. I established a long position at $20.7K. Stop loss is below $20.5K (sold half at $24.5 and moved the stop for the rest to $22K. The stop has been hit so I am out with a nice profit).

COPX copper miners, last signal 16-20 SELL, 14 days, +6.1% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.63)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. The expected bounce to $32-33ish is finishing and will probably buy the 35-39 index. If not the next signal is going to be 16-20 buy. This potential buy signal has the possibility to form a double buy with the 35-39. If this signal cannot hold a new leg down is probable ($22ish target).

GDX,last signal 16-20 SELL, 8 days, -6.93% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $25.25)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The downside target of $25 has been hit. The support at $25 emanates from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is essential for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed without serious consequences.
NEW: The super important support at $25 is holding for now. The target for the bounce is $28-29ish. If the price moves to the downside again there is a potential 16-20 buy around $25.2 to protect the important support and set up a potential double buy. Also, if this support cannot hold the bull market support from 2016 will be broken so watch out.

GDXJ, last signal 16-20 SELL, 15 days, -6.48% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.33)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The price hit the target/support area at $26-28. As expected, the bounce back to 16-20 sell signal has finished. Now either the test of the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidation and rally to $37-39ish to buy back 35-39.
NEW 19/8: so far it seems like the 16-20 buy signal will be the next to trigger. If it cannot hold after that a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in cards.

GLD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, -1.05% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 crossed to SELL; current $162.72)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The target zone was hit ($158.03 GLD, $1681 spot gold intraday). $170 resistance needs to be overcome for a longer-lasting low to be formed. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to stay inside its current parameters (so far so good).
NEW: 16-20 sold, I took profit on my long position. I am looking now to reenter if the 16-20 buys again or the price breaks out through the resistance line.
NEW: The 218-222 bought back (bullish). The momentum indicates that the 35-39 buy is probably the next signal to generate but $166 is so far a firm resistance ($1800 spot). If $166 cannot be overcome quickly the 218-222 will sell again and that could be a problem. I will wait for the next signal before deciding the best setup to enter long again.
NEW 22/Aug: 218-222 sold, the price dropped back inside the downtrend channel. It doesn't look good. $158-160 support will be tested again. 35-39 buy is rejected for now which is also not good. If the recent low gets broken $150-152 is the target ($1600-1640 spot gold).

SLV, last signal 16-20 SELL, 14 days, -4.67% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.55)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The second downside target has been hit ($17ish). The support zone provided a bounce back to $19 (old support). The 16-20 sold and it seems 35-39 buy is coming ($19.5-20.0). It all seems like a significant bottom is being put in but wait until the 35-39 buy is generated. A test of the bottom is still very possible (with a dive to $16ish or even lower).
NEW 22/Aug: 35-39 has been rejected, for now, seems bearish. If 16-20 potential buy signal cannot hold $15-16ish is the target.

TIP, on 35-39 BUY, 8 days, +0.01% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.44)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The price gapped over all of the 16-20 back prices and generated a 16-20 sell signal and also a new 35-39 buy signal. If this signal can hold an important bottom might be in. Otherwise, the $110 area is the target on the downside.

TLT, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 17 days, -4% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $113.04)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration but it seems at least the medium-term bottom has been confirmed. The price rose above $117 and generated the 35-39 buy signal. The next signal will be either a buyable 16-20 buy or a 92-96 buy.
NEW: 16-20 buy was generated. Inversely the 10y yield chart is about to sell 16-20. During the next few days, I will be looking to go long TLT, especially if the 10y chart is selling its 92-96 bull market.

UCO, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, +7.46% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $35.29)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is neutral for now but that will change to bearish if the price drops below $34ish or to bullish if the price rises over $45ish.
NEW: Two days ago the price gapped below the important $32-34 region but then quickly recovered showing strong support. The battle is still on, the downside pressure exercised by the short-term downtrend line ($36-37ish) versus the long-term uptrend line ($32-34ish). If the 16-20 buy signal is broken to the downside I will take that as the SKI configuration changed to bearish and start looking for a short entry. On the other hand, if this support holds and the price can rise above $45 some powerful bullish signals will be generated and I go long.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, -9.12% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.63)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup (so far not happening).

USERX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 14 days, -2.94%; run pattern in-progress 1U/3D/-2.39%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.26)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish (done) and then sub $8.5ish ($8.79 so far).
NEW: The bounce did sell the 16-20 as expected. It reached the breakdown level at $10-10.2 which was my target zone. I wonder if we will have a close over the above-mentioned critical $10.28 level? If yes that would be a good sign for further strength, maybe to reach the resistance at 10.6ish.
NEW: So far the $10.28 resistance is firm, not a good sign for the strength of the current setup. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. For the bulls cause, this level must be overcome otherwise $7.5 starts looking like a target.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 253 days, +15.03% (also, 16-20 SELL excuted today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.93)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. The $29 target has been hit. I expect a correction down to touch/break 16-20 index. It is too early to tell but in hindsight, hitting the $29 might have marked a significant top.
NEW: I mentioned before that the bull market has reached 221 days cycle and that we might be forming a significant top. So far day 227 marked the top and that fits nicely with the cycle length. The drop back to 16-20 buy has finished which increases the chance that the UUP price has topped. The order of indices now allows for a double sell signal 16-20/35-39 if the price rises above $28.8 or for a simple 35-39 sell signal if the trendline is broken to the downside (around $28). The time frame for this is the last two weeks of August. For the bulls to take control back the price needs to break above the recent high of $29.
NEW: 16-20 sold, setting the stage for a double sell. If the double sell happens in conjunction with the 10y yield bull market sell I will short UUP and go long TLT. A rise over $29 will negate this setup.

Australian XGD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 15 days, -1.09% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to NOT BUY 5047/-2.86% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $5195)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. The long-term support was at $5600-5800 and had been violated in a severe manner. Because of this, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is now being recalibrated. The $4765 target has been hit five times and provided firm support every time. I am done adding to long positions and getting ready to unload some around $5400-5600.
NEW: We have entered the resistance zone. I reduced my position when the $5400 was hit and will do the same when $5600 is hit (35-39 index buy).
NEW: It seems like the 35-39 buy will happen before the 16-20 buy. It is not happening on the way up as expected but opposite, on the way down. I'll probably wait for a 16-20 buy after the 35-39 buy to start adding again to my positions. I am 50% long in my trading account.

USERX and XGD.AX chart

 USERX

USERX long indices

XGD.AX

The State Of Indices, 19/8/2022

 SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, +3.17% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $4283)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The July close was $4130 so no crash yet. Potentially this rally could go to $4300-4400. I have added to my shorts at $4100. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside.
NEW: I did predict the possibility for SandP rally to reach $4400 but sure didn't expect it in such a relentless manner. My position, which I added to at $4230, was stopped out (negligible loss). I still have half of my original short position ($4176, took half profit at $3717) and the short position I established at $4100. Will add more above $4400 but this is getting crazy so I will have very tight stops on that one. I am ready to ride the two existing positions up to $4700-4800 but if we get there I will reconsider what to do.
NEW: Another try at shorting this rally, bought VIX Sept22 (bought $23.12, very tight stop 22.98 (stop was hit so I am out), take profit if SandP drops down to touch/buy 16-20 around $4100).

HUI, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, -2.01% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $205.01)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. $203 was significant support and was breached and recovered quickly with the low so far at $192.45. There is a chance that a bottom is forming around that low. The rise continued until the 16-20 sell signal. A rise over $220 would put the price back above the old uptrend line and potentially buy back the 35-39. So far the momentum indicates that the target is at least $223 which makes the 35-39 buy probable. Such a buy increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom that might last for months.
NEW: The rise over the old trendline was rejected and now it seems that the 16-20 buy has an equal chance of being the next signal as the 35-39. In that case, a stage would be set for a double buy and forming a double bottom around Aug low. If that fails my old target of $180 gets activated again. If $180 fails we see $150-160 by October.

Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 14 days, +4.37% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13505)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration but the relentless push to the upside has now broken through the resistance line and is probably going to buy back the 92-96 index. This has the potential to change the chart structure to bullish. Right now the sentiment feels like everyone wants to jump back in for the next bull market. We will see how far that can take us. I am not jumping on that wagon yet until I see what will happen after the 92-96 buy where I will definitely open a short position. On the other hand, if correction to a 16-20 buy signal happens first and then a 92-96 buy is generated I am probably switching to long.

Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days, +4.11% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $2000)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration but a relentless push to the upside has broken through the resistance line and is heading towards a 92-96 index buy signal. This has the potential to change the chart structure to bullish. Right now the sentiment feels like everyone wants to jump back in for the next bull market. We will see how far that can take us (probably $2100). I am not jumping on that wagon until I see what will happen after the 92-96 buy where I will open a short position for at least a short-term trade. On the other hand, if correction to a 16-20 buy signal happens first and then a 92-96 buy is generated I am probably switching to long.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 193 days, +85.62% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 2.77/-3.82% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.88%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is not on the verge of a meltdown anymore. For such a scenario we will probably need a ten-year yield back at 3.5% and above.
NEW: The 35-39 sold again and the chart pattern is now showing a confirmed triple top. 3.1% is serious resistance and 2.2-2.3% is the target on the downside. I will consider going long TLT if the next 10Y signal is 16-20 sell (2.9-3.1%). If not the next signal will be 92-96 sell which would be the end of the bull market. In that case, I will also be looking for a short side entry (long TLT).

XAU, last signal 16-20 SELL, 7 days, -4.53% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.73)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The intraday low on 25th July was $99.81. A rally back to sell 16-20 has finished. The upside target zone of $110-115ish has been entered. Based on the momentum the next signal is most probably going to be the 35-39 buy. Such a signal will improve the chances that the recent low was the bottom (months). If the next signal is a 16-20 buy, the recent bottom will be tested with a possibility of a double buy but also a risk to finally flush the stops around $90-95.

ASA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, +0.2% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.95)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The rise to 16-20 sell signal has finished. The first upside target has been hit ($15ish). Now either test the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidate and rally to $16-17ish to buy 35-39. If 16-20 buys first there is a chance of a double buy around the recent low.

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 27 days, +4.04% (also, 16-20 to BUY 22845/-2.26% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $23373
*comment: BTC hit my second downside target of $19K. The next target is $13K but first back to $24-26? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is probably the second part of 2023.
NEW: 35-39 on the path buy signal has been generated. I think that this signal should propel the price up to 28K but the first stop is $26K. I established a long position at $20.7K. Stop loss is below $20.5K (sold half at $24.5 and moved the stop for the rest to $22K).

COPX copper miners, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, +8.69% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.38)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. The expected bounce to $32-33ish is finishing and will probably buy the 35-39 index. If not the next signal is going to be 16-20 buy. This potential buy signal has the possibility to form a double buy with the 35-39.

GDX,last signal 16-20 SELL, 7 days, -4.87% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $25.81)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The downside target of $25 has been hit. The support at $25 emanates from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is essential for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed without serious consequences.
NEW: The super important support at $25 is holding for now. The target for the bounce is $28-29ish. If the price moves to the downside again there is a potential 16-20 buy around $25.2 to protect the important support and set up a potential double buy. Also, if this support cannot hold the bull market support from 2016 will be broken so watch out.

GDXJ, last signal 16-20 SELL, 14 days, -3.52% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.32)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The price hit the target/support area at $26-28. As expected, the bounce back to 16-20 sell signal has finished. Now either the test of the recent low to buy back the 16-20 or consolidation and rally to $37-39ish to buy back 35-39.
NEW: so far it seems like the 16-20 buy signal will be the next to trigger. If it cannot hold after that a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in cards.

GLD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 12 days, -0.32% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 to NOT SELL 164.59/+0.41% or higher; current $163.02)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The target zone was hit ($158.03 GLD, $1681 spot gold intraday). $170 resistance needs to be overcome for a longer-lasting low to be formed. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to stay inside its current parameters (so far so good).
NEW: 16-20 sold, I took profit on my long position. I am looking now to reenter if the 16-20 buys again or the price breaks out through the resistance line.
NEW: The 218-222 bought back (bullish). The momentum indicates that the 35-39 buy is probably the next signal to generate but $166 is so far a firm resistance ($1800 spot). If $166 cannot be overcome quickly the 218-222 will sell again and that could be a problem. I will wait for the next signal before deciding the best setup to enter long again.

SLV, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, -2.01% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.04)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The second downside target has been hit ($17ish). The support zone provided a bounce back to $19 (old support). The 16-20 sold and it seems 35-39 buy is coming ($19.5-20.0). It all seems like a significant bottom is being put in but wait until the 35-39 buy is generated. A test of the bottom is still very possible (with a dive to $16ish or even lower).

TIP, on 35-39 BUY, 7 days, +0.18% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 116.45/+0.7 or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.64)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The price gapped over all of the 16-20 back prices and generated a 16-20 sell signal and also a new 35-39 buy signal. If this signal can hold an important bottom might be in. Otherwise, the $110 area is the target on the downside.

TLT, 16-20 BUY executed today, offpath, notxxed (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $114.89)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration but it seems at least the medium-term bottom has been confirmed. The price rose above $117 and generated the 35-39 buy signal. The next signal will be either a buyable 16-20 buy or a 92-96 buy.
NEW: 16-20 buy was generated. Inversely the 10y yield chart is about to sell 16-20. During the next few days, I will be looking to go long TLT, especially if the 10y chart is selling its 92-96 bull market.

UCO, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, +7.86% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $35.42)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is neutral for now but that will change to bearish if the price drops below $34ish or to bullish if the price rises over $45ish.
NEW: Two days ago the price gapped below the important $32-34 region but then quickly recovered showing strong support. The battle is still on, the downside pressure exercised by the short-term downtrend line ($36-37ish) versus the long-term uptrend line ($32-34ish). If the 16-20 buy signal is broken to the downside I will take that as the SKI configuration changed to bearish and start looking for a short entry. On the other hand, if this support holds and the price can rise above $45 some powerful bullish signals will be generated.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, -5.05% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.51)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup more.

USERX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, -0.42%; run pattern in-progress 1U/2D/-2.32%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.5)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish (done) and then sub $8.5ish ($8.79 so far).
NEW: The bounce did sell the 16-20 as expected. It reached the breakdown level at $10-10.2 which was my target zone. I wonder if we will have a close over the above-mentioned critical $10.28 level? If yes that would be a good sign for further strength, maybe to reach the resistance at 10.6ish.
NEW: So far the $10.28 resistance is firm, not a good sign for the strength of the current setup. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every important move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. For the bulls cause, this level must be overcome otherwise $7.5 starts looking like a target.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 252 days, +14.31% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL>>to BUY 28.4/-1.22% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.75)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. The $29 target has been hit. I expect a correction down to touch/break 16-20 index. It is too early to tell but in hindsight, hitting the $29 might have marked a significant top.
NEW: I mentioned before that the bull market has reached 221 days cycle and that we might be in a process of forming a significant top. So far day 227 marked the top and that fits nicely with the cycle length. The drop back to 16-20 buy has finished which increases the chance that the UUP price has topped. The order of indices now allows for a double sell signal 16-20/35-39 if the price rises above $28.8 or for a simple 35-39 sell signal if the trendline is broken to the downside (around $28). The time frame for this is the last two weeks of August. For the bulls to take control back the price needs to break above the recent high of $29.
NEW: 16-20 sold, setting the stage for a double sell. If the double sell happens in conjunction with the 10y yield bull market sell I will short UUP and go long TLT. A rise over $29 will negate this setup.

Australian XGD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 14 days, -2.15% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to BUY 5238/+1.92% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $5139)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. The long-term support was at $5600-5800 and had been violated in a severe manner. Because of this, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is now being recalibrated. The $4765 target has been hit five times and provided firm support every time. I am done adding to long positions and getting ready to unload some around $5400-5600.
NEW: We have entered the resistance zone. I reduced my position when the $5400 was hit and will do the same when $5600 is hit (35-39 index buy).
NEW: It seems like the 35-39 buy will happen in the next two days. It is not happening on the way up as expected but opposite, on the way down. I'll probably wait for a 16-20 buy after the 35-39 buy to start adding again to my positions. I am 50% long in my trading account.