Thursday 13 September 2012

The race is on

All my targets for the gold bull market setup have been met. Today's move finalised the setup in a rather perfect fashion and it is time for me to take some profit from the table. I will do it in two steps, Friday and Monday trading day in Australia. I think this move will go higher (HUI 550) but I am happy to reduce my position to 25% long and watch the final push with minimum exposure. I am a long term investor and I will not be in cash at least till 710 days after the May bottom. My exposure will vary from 25% to 100% long and I will often rearrange my portfolio along the way.

HUI
The HUI broke today out of its downtrend line from the 2011 top. The consolidation that I expected around 485-495 didn't last much (I was hoping for a 16-20 buy) which shows that this leg up is very powerful and it could last longer than expected. The main point is that it has proven its impulsive nature and it has signalled the start of a new bull.

GLD
The breakout is confirmed and it is now running into some resistance. I think it will under perform the HUI in the weeks ahead, which is normal at this stage.

 SLV
Up 22% since the 35-39 gave up resistance. What is going to stop it? Probably 36 where some confluence of resistance exist.

 SP500
Repeat from the last week again '... considering the prevailing negative sentiment and the action of the SLV chart I think there is a good chance that after some consolidation this chart breaks north to test the 2008 all time high...'  

 UUP
How do you call this chart pattern? A limp d**k pattern (copyright Branko 2012 )!
It is selling the 92-96 true bull here. It is time for some rally, probably to a 16-20 sell.

GDX
On a true bull and, same as the HUI, still some room left to the upside.


GDXJ
It is on a 92-96 buy and facing some resistance here.


Aussie gold index
It is buying 92-96 today and still has a lot of potential. Next two days I will reduce my position to 25% long and then will be very aggressive buyer when it is close to the green uptrend line.


Good luck to everyone!




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