Results of the poll:
Capital
deployment
|
||||
All in
|
Over 80% very bearish
50%-80%
bearish
20%-50%
bullish
0%-20%
very bullish
|
37.5%
|
Bullish
|
|
All out
|
Over
80% very bullish
50%-80%
bullish
20%-50%
bearish
0%-20%
very bearish
|
18.7%
|
Very
bearish
|
|
Partially
in
|
Fuel
for bulls and bears
|
43.7%
|
||
Overall
|
Mildly
bearish
|
|||
Sentiment
|
||||
We will
go up
(we
bottomed)
|
Over
80% bearish
50%-80%
neutral/bearish
20%-50%
neutral/bullish
0%-20%
bullish
|
62.5%
|
Neutral/bearish
|
|
We will
go down
(we
didn’t bottom)
|
Over
80% bullish
50%-80%
neutral/bullish
20%-50%
neutral/bearish
0%-20%
bearish
|
18.7%
|
bearish
|
|
Don’t
know
|
Fuel
for bulls and bears
|
18.7%
|
||
Overall
|
Bearish
|
|||
Other
|
||||
81.2% people already have some kind of a position. Seems high.
|
Negative
|
|||
Only 60% of those who are sure that we have bottomed are fully
invested. The wall
of worry?
|
Positive
|
|||
50% of those who are not sure what is happening already have some kind
of a position. Sign of fear of missing?
|
Mildly
negative
|
|||
There are three times more people who think market is going to rally than
people who think it is going to drop
|
Negative
|
|||
There are two times more people who are ‘all in’ than ‘all out’
|
Negative
|
|||
Only 20% took the poll. Absence of interest...considering the importance of this juncture this is probably positive
|
Positive
|
All together it seems more negative than positive. The encouraging thing is that people are under-invested compared to the quite predominant belief that we have bottomed. Could be interpreted as a wall of worry. The rest doesn't seem encouraging, over 80% already have a position including 50% of those who have no firm opinion on the current market state. Very easy target for strong hands. Would be interesting to see what is the average exposure of those who are in the market. There are three times more people who believe that market is going up then down. And one more thing, the most interesting, the number of traders that think we haven't bottomed and therefore have no position is ZERO. Again, seems negative but...let's just wait and see what happens...
Good luck to all.
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