Saturday, 14 July 2012

Results of the poll:


Very interesting results and a bit surprising for me. Pity, only 16 people took the poll out of more than 50 that visited the page. I have no idea if it is of any use but here we go, my interpretation:


Capital deployment
All in
Over 80% very bearish
50%-80% bearish
20%-50% bullish
0%-20% very bullish
37.5%
Bullish
All out
Over 80% very bullish
50%-80% bullish
20%-50% bearish
0%-20% very bearish
18.7%
Very bearish
Partially in
Fuel for bulls and bears
43.7%
Overall
Mildly bearish




Sentiment
We will go up
(we bottomed)
Over 80% bearish
50%-80% neutral/bearish
20%-50% neutral/bullish
0%-20% bullish
62.5%
Neutral/bearish   
We will go down
(we didn’t bottom)
Over 80% bullish
50%-80% neutral/bullish
20%-50% neutral/bearish
0%-20% bearish
18.7%
bearish
Don’t know
Fuel for bulls and bears
18.7%
Overall
Bearish




Other
81.2% people already have some kind of a position. Seems high.
Negative
Only 60% of those who are sure that we have bottomed are   fully invested. The wall of worry?
Positive
50% of those who are not sure what is happening already have some kind of a position. Sign of fear of missing?
Mildly negative
There are three times more people who think market is going to rally than people who think it is going to drop
Negative
There are two times more people who are ‘all in’ than ‘all   out’
Negative
Only 20% took the poll. Absence of interest...considering the importance of this juncture this is probably positive
Positive


All together it seems more negative than positive. The encouraging thing is that people are under-invested compared to the quite predominant belief that we have bottomed. Could be interpreted as a wall of worry. The rest doesn't seem encouraging, over 80% already have a position including 50% of those who have no firm opinion on the current market state. Very easy target for strong hands. Would be interesting to see what is the average exposure of those who are in the market. There are three times more people who believe that market is going up then down. And one more thing, the most interesting, the number of traders that think we haven't bottomed and therefore have no position is ZERO. Again, seems negative but...let's just wait and see what happens...

Good luck to all.

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