HUI SKI

The HUI has been in a correction mode since the Sep 2011 and it is practically in a bear market since Feb/Mar 2012 when it double sold 92-96 and 35-39 index while breaking the neckline of the big head and shoulder top that had developed since Oct 2010. The measured move for this breakdown was around 390, the 50% Fibonacci for entire run from 2008 low to 2011 high was 391 and the long term support lines are kicking in between 360 and 380. I think that some kind of significant bottom is going to be made in the next couple of weeks, maximum two months. I will be accumulating every time the HUI goes bellow 370. It would be ideal to breach briefly 350 and if it can go as far as 336 I will be adding positions that I will try to keep for years to come. 

HUI TRADITIONAL - weekly

The whole 2008 correction took 31 weeks to transpire. From the 2011 top to 2012 bottom current correction has taken 36 weeks. If we breach the May low it will be much more than that so the time component is probably satisfied. What is not satisfied is probably psychological component because we haven't seen breach of the trend line and run of stops to create panic. I think taking out the May lows should do it, that is why I am looking for 350, maybe even 330.

HUI SKI - long term

You can see clearly this pretty good support between 330-350. Pay attention to the pink index, the 884, that is the one that gave a crucial support at 2008 bottom and never been breached since then. I declared it, at that time, to be the line in sand between the bull and the bear and I think it still is.

GLD SKI

The 92-96 proved three times that it is a strong resistance. That is a bearish behaviour. It is on the same kind of long term bearish sell signals as the HUI but it also, is on a short term double 16-20 and 35-39 buy signal. It has happened above the long term support line which is encouraging but I give it a 40% chance to hold. The 2008 disaster has happened on the series of  failed true 16-20 buy signals and that has become a blueprint of this gold bull market in the last couple of years, serious declines start with failed true 16-20 buys. The very long term support lies around 125. Is there anyone expecting it to go that far? I don't know but I will be buying from around 135, if and when.

SLV SKI

Very similar to GLD. If it fails here the first stop is 23.50 and if it overshoots then 20. At twenty I am backing up the truck.

UUP SKI - dollar long

This chart is the most important and the most telling at this juncture. Over the last two years UUP has developed a huge inverse head and shoulders with the neckline at exactly current level 23. It is on a TRUE BULL signal since the end of May and now it is at a crucial juncture, if it goes up it will break out with the target at 25, if it goes down it will create a double sell 16-20 and 35-39 which could be a sign of a top. I think it is 60% chance of breaking up.

S&P 500 

After a decent rally since the end of 2011 if has double sold 35-39 and 92-96 and then had two failed true bull signals. The same as failed 16-20 buys have been characteristic of bottoms dropping out  the series of failed true bull signals have been characteristic of topping patterns. Remember July of 2008 and failed HUI true bull that marked the secondary top and the start of relentless fall. This chart is not looking good.

Aussie Gold

Very similar to SLV except the 35-39 didn't even buy. It seems like it is already failing. The one thing that is different to HUI is that Aussie gold peaked in Nov 2010 and is practically been in correction since then. It has topped first and I expect it to bottom before others do. I will start buying 25% position on brigh red days in coming weeks.