email: branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com
X: BMGold @Brankoasko93725
on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 179 days, +25.68%; (also, 16-20 BUY executed; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $5463)
*Comment/Dec29: The S&P is currently exhibiting a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal marked the beginning of a rally that brought the price close to the old all-time high at $4818. While short-term overbought conditions could potentially lead to a correction, the long-term structure now appears to be bullish. However, at this moment, I'm not inclined to actively pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering reevaluating my position after a potential correction has occurred.
NEW/Jan19: Unfortunately, the correction didn't go deep enough to get me interested in establishing a long position. The price action remained sideways until it touched the 16-20 index back prices, followed by an explosive upward movement, which is characteristic of bull markets. Today, the price closed at a new all-time high. The Commitment of Traders (COT) readings are neutral, and the long-term SKI indices are on buy signals. Thus, everything on this chart points to a continuation of bullishness.
NEW/Mar13: The rally appears to be getting long in the tooth. I'm waiting for a break of support to consider entering a short position once more.
NEW/Apr08: The price has broken down from a bearish rising wedge pattern, accompanied by a bearish mode in the MACD indicator. Speculators are buying into this fall, while commercials are selling, indicating a bearish sentiment. Additionally, there are divergences present across various indicator plots. However, the net positions of both commercials and speculators in the COT report are not as extreme as they have been at significant recent highs. I anticipate a consolidation or correction phase is currently underway, possibly targeting the 50-day moving average at $5089 or even filling the gap at $4983 in a more serious scenario.
New/Apr12: The bearish development continues with the recent decisive break. I'm actively seeking a short entry opportunity.
New/Apr26: The gap mentioned in the March 13th post has indeed been closed. The 50-day moving average support has been broken, and the 35-39 index sold and holding. I will initiate a short position on a 16-20 sell signal or in case of an obvious news failure before that, perhaps on FOMC day. However, if the 35-39 index buys back, my plan will be cancelled.
NEW/May07: The 35-39 index has generated a buy signal. The same setup is developing as in September 2023. After a new high, the price rolled over to sell the 35-39 index (and 50-day moving average), then rose to buy back the 35-39 (and 50-day moving average) for a lower high, followed by a 16-20 sell signal. Subsequently, the price continued downward for another 35-39 sell signal which constituted a double sell with the 16-20 sell. That was a shorting point, and if it happens again, I'm going short. COT positioning supports this setup, so we will see. If the price continues upward, we will soon be in new all-time high territory, and the bull market will continue.
New/May17: The short setup still exists, but with the price at a new all-time high, the structure differs from September 2023. We'll see how this develops, but even if we get a sell signal now, I'll be hesitant to execute. I will likely wait for a proper 92-96 sell signal before considering such action.
NEW/May23: Based on the significant reversal day last night in New York, I've decided to short SPY as a hedge for my gold position. So, I'm now fully short on the S&P 500 with a very tight stop at $5350. I want to stress that this is a hedge; otherwise, I wouldn't short before receiving proper confirmation from a 35-39 sell signal.
NEW/Jun07: The 35-39 index sell signal has been avoided, and the price is at an all-time high again. All indexes are aligned in a bullish manner once more. I have removed my short position that was intended as a hedge for my long position in gold stocks.
NEW/Jul29: The 16-20 index crossed to a BUY for the first time since the April low. The price also touched the lower boundary of the ascending channel originating from the October low. If the rally is to continue, now is the time for a bottom. If not, a longer and deeper correction is unfolding with the first target around $5221.
HUI - NYSE ARCA Gold Buggs Index
on 92-96 BUY (with 35-39 for a double buy), OnPath, NotXXed(true), 96 days, +28.73% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $295.61)
*comment/Mar11: Simultaneous 92-96 and 35-39 buy signals were generated today for a double buy, with 92-96 on the path and not xxed therefore indicating a true bull market. However, I'm cautious and see these signals as part of forming a bottom. The breakout into a bull market isn't confirmed until at least $250 is broken, but more probably $270. Nonetheless, upward pressure persists, with the next target at $250. A healthy consolidation around $230-235 is desirable.
NEW/Mar25: Consolidation is indeed underway. The 92-96 index back prices will dip to around $210 over the next seven days. In this period the price is allowed to drop as low as $220 and the buy signal will remain intact, but it will then need to rise above $245 by April 10th to avoid rising back prices.
NEW/Apr03: The $250 target has been reached, with the 218-222 index breaking towards a buy signal. Momentum remains strong, suggesting that the $270 target will likely be achieved soon. Interestingly, despite gold reaching an all-time high, the HUI and other gold miner indices are still relatively subdued, with HUI at $260, below its 2020 high of $373 and far from its 2011 peak of $638. Resistance at around $300 from the 2020 high implies a significant hurdle to overcome before a substantial acceleration can be expected. Until then, navigating levels below $300 may feel like overcoming a wall of worry.
NEW/Apr08: The $270 target has been hit. A healthy consolidation between $250 and $270 in the coming weeks would be beneficial, but it is not guaranteed. Support currently lies around $245.
NEW/Apr26: So far, the consolidation is proceeding as anticipated. The lowest price reached was $248.67, just slightly above my projected support level. Currently, we are back at the top of the range at $270. It's likely that more time is required for this consolidation to conclude, but ultimately, we should see an upward trajectory with the next target around $300. Support is currently around $250-255.
NEW/May03: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal, marking an important point in time. This signals that either a new leg up is about to start or the correction is poised to accelerate.
NEW/May10: The 16-20 buy signal sold after 5 days for a 4.88% profit, as expected in a bull market. Additionally, the price closed at a new high for this wave, which is bullish. However, the double 1d 2u run pattern and the strong resistance level are concerning. It's crucial that $270 holds in the next few days. If it can't, $255 is the next significant support. If that breaks, a plunge to around $230 could follow.
NEW/May17: The price is finally approaching the $300 target. This move appears to be the 5th wave approaching major resistance. The $300-320 area is a good place to reduce the position and wait for a correction.
NEW/May29: The short-term trend is still holding, but just barely. The 2016 top price has been reached, and it certainly feels like a top is forming here. Reducing positions seems like the right move.
NEW/Jun07:The correction continues, and the price is approaching the first Fibonacci retracement level at $256.14. It seems likely that the 35-39 index will sell before some kind of a low is formed.
NEW/Jul05: The 35-39 sell signal is being avoided in a classic bullish manner, but we're not out of the woods yet. While a short-term breakout happened last Thursday, the long-term breakout requires the price to move above the $286-295 zone. Let's first have some follow-through action and see if avoiding a 35-39 sell signal is in the cards. If yes, then there will be some breathing space until September to work on that long-term breakout.
NEW/Jul22: HUI avoided the 35-39 sell signal, as the bullish behaviour around it indicated it would. The 300 barrier has been briefly broken but still holds. The key is that the price now has room to work on a long-term breakout (see Jul 05 post). The $300 level is the final major obstacle before significant upward moves can unfold.
$NDX - Nasdaq
on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 181 days, +24.6% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $19059)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal aligning with the breakthrough of the resistance line enhances its potential impact. An all-time high has been achieved, but in the short term, the price appears to be significantly overextended and possibly in overbought territory.
NEW/Jan19: The bull run persists. The manner in which the price engaged with the 16-20 index back prices suggests more of the same in the future.
NEW/Jan26: SKI-wise, there haven't been any changes compared to my previous comment. In the short term, there is a lag in the performance of NDX compared to SPX, which might indicate the development of a short-term top. However, the fact that speculators have reduced their COT position is not consistent with the formation of a top. The pattern to watch for would be the speculators buying into the rally while NDX lags behind SPX. I am on the sidelines, waiting.
NEW/Mar13: The rally appears to be getting long in the tooth. I'm waiting for a break of support to consider entering a short position once more.
NEW/May08: The setup is similar to the S&P 500 chart. If the price doesn't surge to a new all-time high level soon, there's a possibility of a double sell signal occurring.
NEW/May17: The short setup still exists, but with the price at a new all-time high, the structure differs from September 2023. We'll see how this develops, but even if we get a sell signal now, I'll be hesitant to execute. I will likely wait for a proper 92-96 sell signal before considering such action.
NEW/May29: The price has reached a new all-time high, making the likelihood of a double sell signal diminish by the day.
NEW/Jun07: The 35-39 index sell signal has been avoided, and the price is at an all-time high again. Everything is aligned in a bullish manner once more. The bull market continues.
NEW/Jul22: The Nasdaq price is interacting with the 16-20 index back prices. A buy signal is likely soon, setting up a potential double sell 16-20/35-39, similar to the one that didn't materialize in April. The trend support is around $19,000 and rising. I wouldn't be surprised if this support gets tested in the months ahead. The other scenario is that the 16-20 buy signal simply marks the bottom and the upward move resumes.
NEW/Jul29: The 16-20 index bought, setting up a possible double sell if an immediate rise to $20K ensues. However, it seems more probable that the 35-39 will sell before the 16-20, leading to a quick test of the 92-96 support around $18,400.
on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, notXXed(true), 10 days, -1.25% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $2235)
*comment/JUL22: The Russell 2000 is in a bullish configuration, with both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes on buy signals. Leading up to this, a bearish setup was developing, but everything turned around in a bullish manner at the last moment. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq experienced a selloff, which I believe indicates a broadening market breadth. This is bullish for the markets and suggests there is more upside before the final top.
$TNX - 10Y yield
on 92-95 BUY (double BUY with 16-20), OnPath, XXed, 5 days, -1.44% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current 4.18)
*comment/May29: The SKI chart currently shows a bullish configuration. After the 92-96 index generated a buy signal, it seems the drop to test the uptrend at 4.3% has concluded, and the 10-year yield (10yy) is now rallying towards the target of around 4.9%-5.0%. If this assumption is correct, it is difficult to envision the rally in equities continuing.
NEW/Jun07: After my last post, contrary to my expectation the 10-year yield (10yy) plunged to a new low, finally hitting my initial target at 4.3% (4.277% to be precise). Friday's surge seems to have put the bottom in place. The next target is a 35-39 buy signal around 4.6% and above.
NEW/Jun14: In hindsight, both my assumptions that the bottom was in place were wrong. It seems that the 35-39 sell signal marked a breakdown of the 4.3% support level, and we are now heading lower to test the 92-96 index support at the 4.0%-4.1% level.
NEW/Jul05: 10yy is on a rollercoaster, and I am uncertain about what is happening. From the SKI perspective, yields are at an important juncture. All indices have converged into the current moment, and a resolution is probable in the next few days. Either a 35-39 buy signal is generated, indicating renewed bullishness with 10yy targeting 5% in the next few months, or a double 92-96/218-222 sell is generated, leading to an immediate test of the 4% support. If this support fails, a protracted bearish phase with a target of around 3.1% is expected.
NEW/Jul22: The 10-year yield continues its rollercoaster. The bearish scenario played out with the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes selling but immediately reversing to buy back. The Elliott Wave structure suggests a completed 5-wave decline. With the price hitting support and these signals generated, a bounce to at least 4.6% seems likely. However, if the flip-flopping continues and the 92-96 index sells again, the 4.1% support is likely to break, making a move down to 3.1% probable. In the short term, a bounce appears more likely.
XAU - PHLX Gold and Silver Sector
on 92-96 BUY (double buy with 35-39), OnPath, NotXXed(true), 96 days, +25.19% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $147.82)
*comment/Mar19: Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes have issued buy signals, forming a double buy scenario. The 92-96 signal, is on the path and not XXed, therefore marking the potential for a true bull market. However, typical of such signals, a correction has ensued. It's critical for this correction not to deepen beyond $110; otherwise, both buy signals will conclude, returning us to the downtrend channel and possibly deferring the bull market until the latter half of the year. To confirm the bull market a price rise over $130 is necessary.
NEW/Apr08: The necessary condition to confirm the bull market has been met, with the breaking of the $130 resistance level. Support is currently around $125. While some healthy consolidation would be welcomed, the overall outlook remains bullish.
NEW/May03: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal, marking an important point in time. This signals that either a new leg up is about to start or the correction is poised to accelerate.
NEW/May10: The 16-20 buy signal sold after 5 days for a 5.7% profit, as expected in a bull market. Additionally, the price closed at a new high for this wave, which is bullish. However, the double 1d 2u run pattern and the strong resistance level are concerning.
NEW/May17: Looking at the weekly chart of XAU, it's noticeable that $160 is a major resistance stemming from the 2020 top. The price is now approaching this target, and it appears to be the 5th wave of the rally. For this reason, the $160-170 area seems to be a good place to reduce the position and wait for a correction.
NEW/May29: The price action in XAU appears somewhat toppy. Since the $160-170 target area was nearly reached, it seems reasonable to begin reducing positions to navigate through an upcoming correction.
NEW/Jun07: The correction continues, and the price is approaching the first Fibonacci retracement level at $133.14. It seems likely that the 35-39 index will sell before some kind of a low is formed.
NEW/Jul05: After reaching the first Fibonacci level, the correction seems over, but we are not out of the woods yet. A 35-39 buy signal still needs more price advances to be generated. If this scenario transpires, there is still long-term resistance at $160ish that needs to be overcome for the price to truly break free. I doubt that will happen in the short term, but if the current level can be held for a while, it is probable before September.
NEW/Jul22: The action of the last two weeks has set the stage for a significant breakout over $160 later this summer. Currently, a correction consolidation is underway to relieve overbought conditions before the breakout is attempted. The longer the price stays above the $135 level, the better the chances for success.
ASA - Gold and Precious Metals Ltd
on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 127 days, +25.94% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $18.5)
*comment/Mar25: ASA is in a bullish setup with both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes on buy signal. Confirmation of a bull market requires a close above $15.5 by early April or the 92-96 signal will end. Falling below $14.2 could delay the bull market until later in the year.
NEW/Apr08: The condition to confirm the bull market was satisfied. Breaking through the key resistance at $15.5 triggered an explosive surge, leading to buy signals on the 218-222 and 439-443 long-term indices, indicating long-term bullishness. While some consolidation is expected, the next target is in the vicinity of $19.5 and should be reached within the next two months.
NEW/May03: Unlike other gold indices, ASA hasn't initiated a correction yet. This is bullish, especially given ASA's strong track record in predicting gold sector behaviour in recent years. However, the confirmation of a 1 down 2 up chart pattern across the sector might signal that ASA is poised to join the rest of the indices in undergoing a correction.
NEW/May10: Resistance at $17.5is seems broken if today the price can hold above $18. The next target is $19.5.
NEW/May29: The price hit the $19.5 target exactly and has been in retracement mode since then. It seems wise to take profits now and wait for the correction to run its course.
NEW/Jun07: The correction continues, and the 16-20 index bought today. Additionally, the price is approaching the first Fibonacci retracement level at $17.08. Unlike other gold indices, it is not so sure that the 35-39 index will sell but if it does it will be around $16.34 the 50% Fibo retracement which would be a good place for a low.
NEW/Jun14: The $17.08 retracement level was hit intraday Thursday. The 35-39 index is breaking toward a sell signal, which, in combination with other factors, might be a good place to open a long position and try to catch a temporary bottom (for short-term traders).
NEW/Jul05: ASA has once more given the cleanest signals in the gold sector. As outlined in my last post, the 35-39 index sell signal was a good place to go long. It marked a low, and the price has risen 12% since then. Today, a 35-39 buy signal was generated, which is bullish within the context of a 92-96 bull market. However, a 16-20 sell signal has been generated simultaneously, and combined with a strong 1 down 5 up run pattern, it might signal a temporary high. If the recent high of $19.5 can be broken, the next target is around $21, where major resistance lies. A sustained move higher will likely ensue once this resistance is overcome, probably not before September.
NEW/Jul22: My concerns about a simultaneous 16-20 sell and 35-39 buy were justified. The rally continued until $20.54 but failed to sustain, leading to a correction. Assuming there will be no major crash, the price is now well-positioned to attempt a breakthrough at the $21 resistance, likely later this summer.
BITCOIN
on 92-96 BUY (double buy with 35-39), 10 days, -0.16% (also, 16-20 on SELL, 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL, 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL, 218-222 on BUY, current $67059)
*comment/Jul22: BTC switched to a bullish market configuration, with both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes on a buy signal, justifying my bullish bias. The $68K-$70K resistance has not been broken yet, so I am only 50% long. I will add the rest when the price closes above $70K. A 92-96 sell signal is my stop loss.
COPX - Copper Miners ETF
on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 110 days, +17.49% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $42.26)
*comment/May29: COPX is currently in a bullish configuration, with both medium and long-term indices on buy signals, indicating long-term bullishness. The price has broken through the key resistance at $47, confirming the bull market. Based on the contracting triangle pattern forming since the 2021 top, the long-term target is around $80. However, a test of the breakout at $47 is likely a necessary first step before the price moves towards $60 and beyond.
NEW/Jun07: The test of the breakout is underway, as expected, with the price back at the $47 level. If the price fails to rise above this level again, the breakout could prove to be a false one.
NEW/Jul22: The price failed to rise over $47 indeed, indicating the recent breakout was false. The 92-96 buy signal remains active, so the overall posture is still bullish. The correction has now reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level with a 1 up 6 down run pattern in progress, suggesting the low should be near. If not, the 92-96 buy signal will end soon.
DXY - Dollar Index
35-39 crossed to BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $104.57)
*comment/Jul29: DXY is technically in a bull configuration, but there are issues. First, the structure of this setup is not sound. Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes can easily end their buy signals because the back prices are on a steep rise. Second, the recent signals came after a prolonged sideways move, which doesn't inspire confidence in a strong trend. In fact, there might be a slight downtrend, given the slightly lower lows and highs in the recent price changes.
If the current bounce continues but fails to match the slope of rising back prices, some bearish signals could emerge, including a triple sell if a 16-20 sell signal comes first. Today, a 35-39 buy signal was generated, which could help propel the price high enough for a triple-sell setup. Once the setup is complete, we'll see if there is enough momentum to push the price into breakout territory and avoid the sell signals. All other scenarios, those where the price doesn't rise fast enough, are more or less bearish.
GDX - VanEck Gold Miners ETF
on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true)(while on 92-96 BUY), 15 days, +1.47% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $36.64)
*comment/Mar19: Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes have issued buy signals, forming a double buy scenario. The 35-39 signal is on the path and not XXed. However, typical of such signals, a correction has ensued. It's critical for this correction not to deepen beyond $28; otherwise, both buy signals will conclude and possibly defer the bull market until the latter half of the year. To confirm the bull market a price rise over $32 is necessary.
NEW/Apr08: The price has indeed risen above $32, confirming the bull market. Simultaneously, both the 218-222 and 439-443 indices have triggered buy signals, adding to long-term bullishness.
NEW/May03: 16-20 bought. Is it the end of the correction or the beginning of downward acceleration into a bottom? The 1 down 2 up price pattern across the sector suggests acceleration to the downside, but it's a bull market, so we'll see.
NEW/May10: The 16-20 buy signal sold for a profit, as expected in a bull market. Additionally, the price closed at a new high for this wave, which is bullish. However, the double 1d 2u run pattern and the strong resistance level are concerning.
NEW/May17: The $37 target level has now been reached, marked by the resistance line from the 2020 top. Will the price slice through and then come down to test the breakout, or will this line present strong resistance? The Fibo extensions point to $38.35, $39.16 and $39.96 as possible targets but we will see. However, the current move is likely the fifth of this wave up and should be followed by a significant correction that will probably interact with the 35-39 index.
NEW/May29: The resistance line proved too difficult to break through on the first attempt. Since the $37 target area was reached, it seems reasonable to reduce positions to navigate through the upcoming correction.
NEW/Jun07: The correction continues, and the 16-20 index bought today. Additionally, the price is approaching the first Fibonacci retracement level at $32.96. It seems likely that the 35-39 index will sell before some kind of a low is formed.
NEW/Jun14: The first Fibonacci retracement level was hit intraday on Thursday and Friday, and the 35-39 index is close to selling. The price action still doesn't suggest that a proper bottom is in place. After some short-term bounce, another wave down to hit close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($31.56) is probable.
NEW/Jul05: After a strong rebound from the first Fibonacci level, the price is hitting resistance at $36.5. This resistance is significant because it dates back to the 2020 top. Combined with a coinciding 16-20 sell and a 35-39 buy signal tomorrow (normally indicating a top), this could suggest that the current surge is limited. If, unexpectedly, the price slices through this resistance, the next target should be around $40. However, my feeling is that some time will be necessary before the breakthrough.
NEW/Jul22: The major $36 level has been broken through, but I still think it will take some time before the price manages to create some meaningful distance from it—probably a few weeks.
GDXJ - VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
on 92-95 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 99 days, +23.48% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 crossed to SELL > to BUY 45.37/+1.84% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $44.55)
*comment/Mar19: The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated, marking the fourth such signal in the last two months. To sustain this signal, the price needs to remain above $34 for a while and then rise to $40 by mid-April. The ability to surpass this resistance level will determine if the bull market is ready to gain momentum.
NEW/Apr08: The price has indeed risen above $40, confirming the bull market. Simultaneously, both the 218-222 and 439-443 indices have triggered buy signals, adding to long-term bullishness.
NEW/May03: 16-20 buy executed today. Is it the end of the correction or the beginning of downward acceleration into a bottom? The 1 down 2 up price pattern across the sector suggests acceleration to the downside, but it's a bull market, so we'll see.
NEW/May10: The 16-20 buy signal sold for a profit, as expected in a bull market. Additionally, the price closed at a new high for this wave, which is bullish. However, the double 1d 2u run pattern and the strong resistance level are concerning.
NEW/May17: Unlike GDX, GDXJ has already surpassed all trendline resistance from the 2020 top. The next significant target is $52.5, the 2016 bull market top. Like all other gold indices, it appears that the current move is the fifth wave up, so a significant correction should be expected once the top is formed.
NEW/Jun07: The correction continues, and the 16-20 index will buy soon. Additionally, the price is approaching the first Fibonacci retracement level at $40.82. The $40 level, an old resistance, is now being tested from above. There's also a gap at $40.73 that is likely to be closed. If the gold price finds support at $2270, this area looks like a perfect spot for a temporary bottom.
NEW/Jul05: The test of $40 from above was successful. Contrary to other gold sector charts the GDXJ chart shows minimal resistance above the current level, with only the recent high ($47.25) in the way. If the current momentum can be sustained, the $52.5 level seems to be in the crosshairs.
NEW/Jul29: The 35-39 index sold, indicating a potential bottom, but I would have preferred it to be preceded or coincided with a 16-20 buy for a stronger support. This setup doesn't quite feel like a bottom. I think $42 is a better level to expect the correction to end but we will see.
GOLD - Gold spot price
on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 201 days, +20.82% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $2383)
*comment/Jun14: Gold is in a bullish constellation with a 92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades, indicating a potential long-term bull, although it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March 2024 remains active. The gold price hit $2449 intraday on May 20th, which appears to be the top for now. The ongoing correction is targeting $2272 as a minimum.
During the correction, the 16-20 index generated a buy signal, and so far, this signal has marked a low. However, this signal follows a 35-39 sell, so its validity is uncertain. Given the current EW structure, I wouldn't exclude another wave down to properly hit the $2272 Fibonacci level. If the correction extends beyond this level, the next targets are $2217 and $2162, and gold stocks will likely struggle and may revisit the 200-day moving average.
NEW/Jul05: The 16-20 buy signal has marked the bottom so far, stopping the price just short of the first Fibonacci retracement level. This is bullish, and combined with a potential renewed 35-39 buy signal within the existing 92-96 buy signal, the outlook remains positive. There's no immediate need for a rise to maintain this bullishness, but by September, the price needs to be firmly above $2400 to avoid a 92-96 sell signal.
NEW/Jul22: After a new 35-39 buy signal and a new all-time high, the price of gold is now in correction mode. I'll repeat the recent comment: there's no immediate need for a rise to maintain the bullishness, but by late August, the price needs to be firmly above $2400 to avoid a 92-96 sell signal.
SILVER - Silver spot price
on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 104 days, +15.31% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.86)
*comment/Apr08: Silver is in a true bull configuration, with all long and very long-term indices on buy positions. The initial targets following the breakout have been achieved, and now a consolidation phase is expected. After this consolidation, the next upward wave is anticipated to propel the price towards $29.29, where a significant resistance level resides. Breaking through this resistance will be crucial for a potential move towards the all-time high. This progression could unfold over the next 2-3 months if the conditions align. Te support is around $23.5.
NEW/Apr13: The $29.29 target was hit quickly after the breakout, contrary to my expectations. Now the price is at significant resistance. Like the gold sector, every pundit declared this a medium-term top, calling for a significant correction. In my opinion, the correction should be shallow and short. I'll change my mind if an outright equity market crash starts.
NEW/May03: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal. Inside a bull market, this would be a point to add to long positions.
NEW/May10: The 16-20 buy marked a bottom beautifully as it should in a bull market. The consolidation continues, and everything looks bullish.
NEW/May17: $29.29 has been exceeded, and the next target, $31.47—the 161.8% Fibonacci target—was hit intraday, with the spot price closing at $31.43. This is very exciting, but it's time for a top to form, possibly as soon as this week, maybe even intraday Tuesday. However, the expected correction should be shallow and short. Long-term, the price is on its way to $50. Be prepared for significant volatility in silver.
NEW/May29: As expected, the top was reached shortly after my last post. I believe consolidation is now underway, with support around the $29 level.
NEW/Jun14: The first Fibonacci retracement level was hit intraday on Thursday ($28.6), providing an instant rebound. It seems like we will experience some short-term strength here, but I'm not convinced the final bottom is in yet. The probability of this being a bottom will increase if the price can exceed $29.7 and stay above it for two consecutive days.
NEW/Jul05: The price indeed rose above $29.7 and stayed there for 3 days, suggesting that the bottom is in. However, I would still be cautious of a possible turnaround if the 35-39 signal sells after the 16-20 sold today.
NEW/Jul22: So, the 35-39 did sell, and that sell signal did mark a top indeed. The bullish structure of the silver market is still sound, with plenty of room to correct both in price and time terms. However, by mid-September, the price needs to be above the recent high at $32ish to avoid a 92-96 sell signal.
NEW/Jul29: Silver should find a bottom around the current level. An intraday drop to $27.21 or lower should do it.
TIP - iShares TIPS Bond ETF
last signal 92-96 SELL, 4 days +0.66% (also 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 106.38/-1.05% or lower; 218-222 on BUY; current $107.51)
*comment/May29: The TIPs chart currently shows a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index is acting as firm resistance, potentially leading to another test of the support at the $105 level. If this support holds, there is a possibility of a bullish double buy signal from the 16-20/35-39 indexes. If the support fails, the next downside target is around $103.8.
NEW/Jun07: The $105 support held, leading to a 35-39 buy signal, but it was then rejected by the 92-96 index resistance. We are now back in no man's land between the $107 resistance and $105 support. Whichever level breaks first will determine the next significant move. A potential breakout will be accompanied by a 92-96 buy signal while a breakdown will be accompanied by a 35-39 sell signal.
NEW/Jun14: The long-term 218-222 index is almost certain to buy next week, and the 92-96 index is breaking to buy as well. At this moment, it feels like TIPS are going to break out of the $107 resistance that has been holding them back since March.
NEW/Jul05: Both the 218-222 and 92-96 indexes have generated buy signals. The $107 level is still resisting the advance, but only barely. This looks like a crucial juncture for the TIPS chart because there is no more avoiding the resolution. Either the $107 resistance will break, or falling prices will generate a triple sell 16-20/35-39/92-96 signal.
TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
last signal 92-96 SELL, 7 days, +0.61% (also, 16-20 crossed to SEL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $93.49)
*comment/May29: TLT is in a bearish configuration with both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes on sell signals. Since October 2023, the price has been within a contracting triangle and is now nearing the apex around $90. A breakout from this triangle will determine the direction of the next leg. With time running out, we should know the outcome soon, likely within the next three weeks.
NEW/Jun07: The TLT attempted a breakout, but it appears to be failing. It has re-entered the contracting triangle, and if this attempt was a fakeout, we can expect the support to break, leading to higher yields.
NEW/Jun14: My last assessment of TLT action was incorrect. Rather than failing, the drop back inside the contracting triangle seems like a backtest of the breakout. The price is now approaching the 92-96 and 218-222 indices for a potential double buy, which could mark the start of a new leg up to the target area around $100 and then further to $106 (if and when).
NEW/Jul05: Once more, the price fell inside the contracting triangle and again rebounded, making the action look like a test of support. If this is true, the rise will continue, and new 92-96 and 218-222 buy signals will be produced. That would be extremely bullish, with the target zone around $100 and then further to the upper boundary of the trending channel around $106. However, if the price drops and sells the 35-39 index again, it will indicate a breakdown and a quick fall towards $82 and lower. It's decision time.
NEW/Jul22: The time is now past the apex of the contracting triangle, and the price seems to be pushing higher. Having said that, the direction of the next move is still undecided. A 92-96 buy signal will indicate an upward move; a 35-39 sell signal will indicate a downward move.
UCO - crude oil ETF
last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, -4.78% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > to NOT BUY 28.41/-4.38% or lower; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 30.87/+3.9% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.71)
*comment/Mar25: Contrary to expectations, the price has risen and the 92-96 index generated a buy signal, complementing the existing 35-39 buy signal and turning the structure bullish. Such signals often mark temporary tops. The upcoming correction will determine if this trend will evolve into a bull market or revert to a trading range, with the next target around the $22 area. The SKI structure is promising for a bullish outcome, but only time will tell.
NEW/Apr08: The 92-96 buy signal has proven to be bullish, with the price rising by 10% since its inception. With the 218-222 also on buy signal and 439-443 breaking to buy it may be time to start buying dips.
NEW/May10: The 92-96 buy signal that looked bullish is now in the red with the 35-39 index selling. It seems that support around $29 will be tested before we will be able to know what is happening in the longer term.
NEW/Jun07: The $29 support is being tested, as expected. If it cannot hold $25 will be the next downside target.
NEW/Jun14: The $29 support held, and the price is bouncing towards the upper boundary of the downtrend channel. I don't think the bottom is in yet. The $32.2 resistance needs to be cleared before we can discuss a change of trend.
NEW/Jul05: The $32.2 resistance level mentioned in my last post has been broken, and the chart has maintained its bullish configuration. The medium-term target is now around $42.
NEW/Jul22: The price is in correction mode after the 35-39 buy signal. I think the bottom is close, and the next upward wave should start soon. The final support is around $30. If this support is broken, the market structure will turn bearish.
NEW/Jul29: The price action is showing weakness. It seems like tomorrow a 35-39 sell signal will be triggered alongside a 92-96 buy signal. This is all happening at an important support level, so if these signals trigger and the 92-96 prevails, we might witness a breakdown. These signals mark an important juncture. Let's see in which order they come and then take appropriate action.
URA - uranium stocks ETF
last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, -1.78% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.05)
*comment/Jul05: URA's 92-96 index has generated a buy signal, and the SKI structure is solid. This might signal the start of a new leg up, but a close above $30.5 is needed for confirmation. I started buying back (mostly BOE.ax) but with tight stops.
NEW/Jul29: Despite having a sound structure, the 92-96 buy signal proved to be wrong and quickly sold. My stops have been hit, and I am down to my core position again. It seems we are getting that chart reset after all. If the drop continues, $25.44 is the target, then $23.76. The chart structure cannot turn bullish before the 92-96 buys back, which is not likely anytime soon.
USERX - US Global Investors Gold & Precious Metals Fund
on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 153 days, +21.66%; run pattern in-progress 7D/2U/+0.38%perday; xxing=off_off_on (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $11.85)
*comment/Apr22: USERX is on an XXed 92-96 buy signal, suggesting a potential bull market. Following the buy signal, a rally ensued, leaving USERX in a strong short-term position. However, a correction/consolidation was initiated post reaching $11.2. My focus is now mainly on weekly charts, which do not indicate any significant overbought conditions. Nevertheless, my perspective may alter if there's an outright crash in the equity market. The correction target is $10.28, possibly briefly extending to $9.9.
NEW/Apr26: The previous top at $11.21 has been breached, suggesting a possible start of a new leg up. However, there's a potential problem: the current price pattern is 1 down followed by two small up days, which is one of the most bearish run patterns. The pattern will be confirmed if on Monday USERX closes down. Considering the state of the equity market and the potential for a significant drawdown, I'll likely lighten up my position if Monday is a down day.
NEW/May03:Instead of on Monday, the 1 down 2 up bearish price pattern was confirmed on Friday. In a bull market, the 16-20, which is about to buy, should act as support, so I am uncertain about the short-term scenario. I'll probably take profit on my newly acquired positions and go back to 50% on Monday morning and wait.
NEW/May09: USERX has exhibited another 1d 2u run pattern. It remains to be seen whether this will have a more significant impact or if we will continue consolidating until a new upward trend begins.
NEW/May10: USERX price printed a higher close, setting up a potential 1d 2u again if Monday closes down. Nothing has been broken yet, quite the opposite, but if the 1d 2u happens for the third time in a row I don't know if I should be worried or annoyed.
NEW/May17: As I suspected, the recent tape action was not bearish. My concern about the triple 1d2u pattern obscured what is now apparent: the action was outright bullish. Today, a quick scan of the gold market on Twitter reveals that most analysts are doubling down on their correction calls, suggesting the price will likely continue to rise. In hindsight, the triple 1d2u marked an important juncture, as SKI signals often do. Unfortunately, my fear prevented me from interpreting it correctly.
NEW/May21: The USERX price is nearing resistance at $12.5, coinciding with the 881-885 index, which currently echoes March 2021 prices as they moved off the 2020 top. If we consider the 881-885 index as the true resistance to overcome, the price should be at least around $14.5. However, given that gold was around $2000 at that stage and is now $2400, projecting this into the USERX price suggests it should be at least around $20. There's a significant amount of catching up to do, which explains why the USERX price remains so resilient even when gold is weak on the day.
NEW/May24: The best possible scenario for this correction would be for the 16-20 index to buy, initiating a small rally back above $12 for a double top, followed by a trading range between $10.8 and $12.0 for about two months before overcoming the resistance in the second half of the year. The other scenario is a straight drop to $10.28 to test the breakout, followed by a slow grind out of the low to eventually break out again in the latter part of the year. If the price falls below $10.28, it could challenge the bull market by mid-summer.
NEW/Jun07: The USERX 16-20 index will finally buy. It seems like the $10.74 Fibonacci retracement is the target now. If this happens, the 35-39 index will likely sell, potentially marking a bottom somewhere in the $10.28-$10.6 range. Referring to the May 24th post, it appears that one of the two scenarios described is unfolding. Personally, I'd prefer the second scenario where we test the $10.28 level right now. In both cases, we will likely not reach new highs before the latter part of the year.
NEW/Jul05: The 35-39 index never sold, and the 16-20 is selling tomorrow, so my not preferred scenario is unfolding (double sell setup). Given the momentum and the gold chart setup, it seems like the bottom is in, but I would still like to avoid the 35-39 sell and reach $12.2-$12.4 before this surge slows down. Then the price can work on that strong resistance area before it breaks out later this summer (winter in AUS).
NEW/Jul22: The 35-39 sell signal was avoided as the price rose to a high of $12.71 before starting a correction. I expect the price to spend the next few weeks in the $11-$12 zone, working on overcoming the long-term resistance around $12. Once this resistance is breached, a more sustainable rise should follow, targeting around $14.5 and beyond. For now, I am waiting to see how the interaction with the 16-20 index will play out.
XGD.AX - Australian gold index
on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 97 days, +16.14% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $7897)
*comment/Mar15: XGD.AX is currently on a true bull buy signal.
NEW/Apr13: After Friday's session, I decided to take profits on the 10% that I purchased two weeks ago. I'm retaining the remaining 50% trading position as I believe this correction is unlikely to be significant in depth or duration. I plan to buy on dips. Nevertheless, I acknowledge that my stance could shift if the equity market undergoes an outright crash. For that reason, I have tightened up the stops.
NEW/Apr22: The recent action validates my decision to reduce to 50%; the correction persists. I still anticipate modest depth and duration, unlikely to surpass the old resistance zone at $7000, if it reaches there at all. More likely correction target: $7100-$7300 range. I'll begin adding positions once the price reaches this level.
NEW/Apr26: So far, my prediction about the correction being shallow has been accurate. The lowest price reached was $7408, which didn't quite hit my buying zone. I did make some purchases, but only a small position, so I am currently 55% long. If USERX confirms a 1 down 2 up pattern on Monday, I might again go back to 50% or even lower on Tuesday.
NEW/May03: Consolidation persists, with the 16-20 about to buy. The price still hasn't entered my buying zone ($7100-7300). USERX has confirmed the bearish 1 up 2 down run pattern, so I will take profits on my recent buys and wait at 50% long to see what unfolds in the next few days.
NEW/May10: 16-20 buy signal acted as support as it should. That is bullish. I added some to my longs on Friday morning, 65% long but cautious regarding the triple 1d2u run pattern.
NEW/May17: If not for USERX's bearish run pattern, I would have gone 100% long. I added to my silver positions (IVR.ax SVL.ax), as I announced, so all is good. 65% long. We'll see how Monday trading day goes here in Australia, it seems like a big breakout will finally happen and we detach from that $7700 level that has been an obstacle since more than a month ago.
NEW/May29: XGD.AX executed an 881-885 index sell today. The price is oscillating around the critical $7700 level, suggesting a box range consolidation.
NEW/May30: XGD.AX is about to sell the 35-39 index during a 92-96 bull market. The next time the 35-39 buys back it will be an all-in signal. For now, the correction/consolidation is ongoing.
NEW/Jun07: XGD is still in a trading range of $7400-$8100. That is likely to change now after the NY session on Friday. My buying zone is in $7100-$7300. But first, let's see if we get there. I'm currently 75% long but will put the hedge back on Monday.
NEW/Jun14: XGD hit the first Fibonacci support. Intraday, it dipped as low as $7267, which is within my buying zone, but my bids were too conservative, so none of my orders were executed. I'm still 75% long. On Monday, I will try again.
NEW/Jun26: XGD 881-885 crossed to BUY. I am adding at the open in Australia today.
NEW/Jun27: 881-885 executed the buy signal. I am 90% long now in my trading account. I will probably reduce it back to 75% on the next 16-20 sell signal.
NEW/Jul05: The price is approaching a 16-20 sell signal. On the execution day, I will decide if I want to take some profit and reduce back to a 75% long position. I really want to see the 35-39 start breaking to buy before I am sure I do not want to reduce.
NEW/Jul22: The price rose to generate the 35-39 buy signal, where I took profit on the 15% I acquired in the $7100-$7200 zone. Currently, I'm 75% long (with 30% hedge) and waiting to see how the interaction with the 16-20 index back prices plays out. I'm not in a hurry to increase (or decrease ) my positions.
No comments:
Post a Comment