Saturday, 22 June 2024

The most important chart in the gold sector right now, Newmont Corporation, NEM

NEM is flashing buy signals on all time frames, regardless of the technical analysis tool I'm using.


Daily

On a daily chart, a test of the 50-day MAV is in progress and likely finished successfully two days ago with the price breaking out of the downtrend from the May top. The MACD has just given a buy signal, the RSI is above 50, the price is above the 200-day MAV, and the ADX indicates plenty of space for a sustainable rally. Only the EW structure seems incomplete, so another test of the 50-day MAV is not out of the possibility. However, come the reporting season, NEM should be on its way to over $50 and beyond.



Weekly

Zooming out from the daily chart gives us a picture of a retracement in progress from the 2022-2024 leg down. For the price to target the $51.2 retracement level, $42 must be overcome, which would confirm the bottom is in place. This represents a 20% rise from here, likely requiring 2-3 months to transpire. All indicators are in place for such a move. After some consolidation, the next target would be $57.92 to confirm a long-term bottom and set the stage for targeting $88 and above, probably by Q1 2025.



Monthly

The monthly chart shows a MACD buy signal generated last month. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to $51.2 will put the price back above the bull trendline that started at the bottom of 2015. Again, all indicators are positive for such an outcome and have plenty of space to run. Seems like a matter of time. 



SKI indices

As I reported in May, NEM's 92-96 index generated a true bull buy signal, which is still alive and well. Normally, such signals are followed by a retracement before the bull market takes hold. In this case, the retracement was of a normal size, and after the downtrend line was broken a few days ago, it seems that either the 35-39 will sell/buy to start a new leg up or it will simply hold. Once $42 is broken, the price is expected to explode to the upside.



SKI long term indices

The 218-222 long-term index executed a buy today, and the 439-443 index is breaking to buy, forming a very long-term double buy. The 439-443 back prices are currently in the $41.25-$42.8 range, again confirming that $42 is the resistance to overcome before things accelerate. The position of the 660-664 and 881-885 indexes shows that the next resistance is in the $56-$64 area, confirming the readings from the weekly and monthly charts.



I have accumulated a sizable NEM position over the last month and a half and will add more on any significant weakness.

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