email: branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com
X: BMGold @Brankoasko93725
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 102 days, +19.67%; (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $5202)
*Comment/Dec29: The S&P is currently exhibiting a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal marked the beginning of a rally that brought the price close to the old all-time high at $4818. While short-term overbought conditions could potentially lead to a correction, the long-term structure now appears to be bullish. However, at this moment, I'm not inclined to actively pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering reevaluating my position after a potential correction has occurred.
NEW/Jan19: Unfortunately, the correction didn't go deep enough to get me interested in establishing a long position. The price action remained sideways until it touched the 16-20 index back prices, followed by an explosive upward movement, which is characteristic of bull markets. Today, the price closed at a new all-time high. The Commitment of Traders (COT) readings are neutral, and the long-term SKI indices are on buy signals. Thus, everything on this chart points to a continuation of bullishness.
NEW/Mar13: The rally appears to be getting long in the tooth. I'm waiting for a break of support to consider entering a short position once more.
NEW/Apr08: The price has broken down from a bearish rising wedge pattern, accompanied by a bearish mode in the MACD indicator. Speculators are buying into this rally, while commercials are selling, indicating a bearish sentiment. Additionally, there are divergences present across various indicator plots. However, the net positions of both commercials and speculators in the COT report are not as extreme as they have been at significant recent highs. I anticipate a consolidation or correction phase is currently underway, possibly targeting the 50-day moving average at $5089 or even filling the gap at $4983 in a more serious scenario.
HUI, on 92-96 BUY (with 35-39 for a double buy), OnPath, NotXXed(true), 19 days, +14.28% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $262.42)
*comment/Mar11: Simultaneous 92-96 and 35-39 buy signals were generated today for a double buy, with 92-96 on the path and not xxed therefore indicating a true bull market. However, I'm cautious and see these signals as part of forming a bottom. The breakout into a bull market isn't confirmed until at least $250 is broken, but more probably $270. Nonetheless, upward pressure persists, with the next target at $250. A healthy consolidation around $230-235 is desirable.
NEW/Mar25: Consolidation is indeed underway. The 92-96 index back prices will dip to around $210 over the next seven days. In this period the price is allowed to drop as low as $220 and the buy signal will remain intact, but it will then need to rise above $245 by April 10th to avoid rising back prices.
NEW/Apr03: The $250 target has been reached, with the 218-222 index breaking towards a buy signal. Momentum remains strong, suggesting that the $270 target will likely be achieved soon. Interestingly, despite gold reaching an all-time high, the HUI and other gold miner indices are still relatively subdued, with HUI at $260, below its 2020 high of $373 and far from its 2011 peak of $638. Resistance at around $300 from the 2020 high implies a significant hurdle to overcome before a substantial acceleration can be expected. Until then, navigating levels below $300 may feel like overcoming a wall of worry.
NEW/Apr08: The $270 target has been hit. A healthy consolidation between $250 and $270 in the coming weeks would be beneficial, but it is not guaranteed. Support currently lies around $245.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 104 days, +18.83% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL > to BUY 17951/-0.82% or lower; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $18100)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal aligning with the breakthrough of the resistance line enhances its potential impact. An all-time high has been achieved, but in the short term, the price appears to be significantly overextended and possibly in overbought territory.
NEW/Jan19: The bull run persists. The manner in which the price engaged with the 16-20 index back prices suggests more of the same in the future.
NEW/Jan26: SKI-wise, there haven't been any changes compared to my previous comment. In the short term, there is a lag in the performance of NDX compared to SPX, which might indicate the development of a short-term top. However, the fact that speculators have reduced their COT position is not consistent with the formation of a top. The pattern to watch for would be the speculators buying into the rally while NDX lags behind SPX. I am on the sidelines, waiting.
NEW/Mar13: The rally appears to be getting long in the tooth. I'm waiting for a break of support to consider entering a short position once more.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed, 28 days, +1.64% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to NOT SELL 2071/-0.12% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $2073)
*comment/Feb16: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal from November 2023 has sold and instantly bought back, while the 92-96 index is on a buy signal. This signal is occurring just below the upper boundary of the upward-sloping trending channel dating back to the 2022 low. However, this 35-39 signal could either mark a top or signify the beginning of acceleration. Based on the current structure, I am leaning toward a scenario where it marks a top, potentially leading to a correction, with a minimum target around $1850. If this prediction holds true, the correction may end with the price testing the support of the 92-96 index, at which point the future direction of this market will become clearer.
NEW/Feb27: The 35-39 buy signal generated on February 14th did indeed mark a top, followed by a minor correction. This correction subsequently reversed back to a 35-39 buy signal. The prevailing pressure seems to be on the upside. However, to confirm the start of a new upward trend, the $2070 level needs to be surpassed. If this level is successfully breached, the initial target will be $2150, with the ultimate target set at $2350.
NEW/Mar13: The $2070 resistance level has persisted for the past three weeks, while support is also holding near this level. A resolution seems imminent, with either a breakout above $2070 leading to a rally or a downturn below $2060 signalling a correction towards $1900ish.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 40 days, +5.66% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.42%)
*comment/Mar19: The SKI chart currently exhibits a bearish configuration, but the technical support around the 3.9% level remains resilient, delaying confirmation of the bearish trend. Although the top observed in February initially signalled a continuation of the downtrend, the price reversed upwards, now testing that same top at 4.3% again. If the price surpasses this level, the target could shift to 4.5-4.6%, potentially prompting a bullish reversal in the SKI chart. More clarity on the chart's state is expected following the FOMC meeting tomorrow.
NEW/Mar25: The 4.3% resistance level is holding. If the next signal is a 35-39 sell, I expect the 4% support to be tested. The recent FOMC meeting was negative for yields (so far).
NEW/Apr09: The bond market action is pushing yields higher, with the resistance at 4.3% appearing to be broken and a potential 92-96 buy signal on the horizon. The prevailing trend seems upward, suggesting that the monetary policy might be too loose. Will this lead to the FED rising rates instead of cutting? For now, gold is not bothered with the rise of 10yy. On the contrary, it appears they are telling the same story, the FED needs to tighten (but is not likely to).
XAU, on 92-96 BUY (double buy with 35-39), OnPath, NotXXed(true), 19 days, +14.88% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $135.65)
*comment/Mar19: Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes have issued buy signals, forming a double buy scenario. The 92-96 signal, is on the path and not XXed, therefore marking the potential for a true bull market. However, typical of such signals, a correction has ensued. It's critical for this correction not to deepen beyond $110; otherwise, both buy signals will conclude, returning us to the downtrend channel and possibly deferring the bull market until the latter half of the year. To confirm the bull market a price rise over $130 is necessary.
NEW/Apr08: The necessary condition to confirm the bull market has been met, with the breaking of the $130 resistance level. Support is currently around $125. While some healthy consolidation would be welcomed, the overall outlook remains bullish.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 50 days, +14.43% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $16.81)
*comment/Mar25: ASA is in a bullish setup with both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes on buy signal. Confirmation of a bull market requires a close above $15.5 by early April or the 92-96 signal will end. Falling below $14.2 could delay the bull market until later in the year.
NEW/Apr08: The condition to confirm the bull market was spectacularly satisfied. Breaking through the key resistance at $15.5 triggered an explosive surge, leading to buy signals on the 218-222 and 439-443 long-term indices, indicating long-term bullishness. While some consolidation is expected, the next target is in the vicinity of $19.5 and should be reached within the next two months.
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY (while on 92-96 buy), OnPath, Not XXed(true), 65 days, +68.69% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $71810)
*comment/Mar22: BTC is in a bull market, with both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes on a buy signal. Following the attainment of a new all-time high, a correction has commenced. It appears that more time is required for the upward trend to resume, possibly after testing the $58K support level.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 33 days, +26.49% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $45.5)
*comment/Apr08: COPX is currently in a bullish configuration, with both medium and long-term indices on buy signals, suggesting long-term bullishness. The momentum since the 92-96 buy signal has been remarkable, with the price nearing the $47 target level. However, breaking through $47 may face resistance, leading to potential consolidation or correction inside the $40-47 range. Once the $47 level is surpassed, it would confirm the onset of a new bull market.
DXY (dollar index), 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $104.12)
*comment/Dec29: DXY is presently demonstrating a bearish SKI and technical analysis (TA) setup. However, it's important to note that the price is currently positioned just above a long-term support level that dates back to the 2011 low. Given that the current TA indicators are all in a deep oversold territory, it's unlikely that this support will be breached in the short term. Additionally, there's a possibility of a short-term dollar rally, potentially targeting the $105-106 range. As part of my strategy, I may consider taking a short position in gold during this dollar rally, which can also serve as a hedge against my long gold positions.
NEW/Jan09: So far, the correction rally has reached $103.1. I believe there's more upside potential, at least to $104 and possibly beyond, as I mentioned previously.
NEW/Jan26: A new high for the correction rally has been achieved, $103.82. This produced a 35-39 buy signal but it is xxed and therefore should represent a resistance.
NEW/Feb02: The 35-39 index did, in fact, pose strong resistance. Now, let's observe if the $101 support level will be tested again.
New/Feb07: Eventually that 35-39 index resistance broke and a 35-39 buy signal was generated. This is potentially a bullish development but it still needs confirmation by a close above $105. If $105 resistance breaks a rise to $107 should be expected.
NEW/Mar01: It has been a month since the 35-39 buy signal, and the confirmation, indicated by the price closing above $105, has not yet materialized. Today's 16-20 xxed buy signal could potentially indicate further weakness.
NEW/Mar19: A new 35-39 buy signal, is generated after the previous one failed, and the price threatens to surpass the resistance at $105. Clearing this level is crucial to confirm the bullishness of the signal. However, I still anticipate this level to act as resistance. If it doesn't, a new 92-96 buy signal will likely be triggered with a price rise above $105, signalling the beginning of a bull market for the dollar.
NEW/Apr08: Similar to the beginning of March, a new buy signal has been generated, this time a 92-96 buy. However, the confirmation, indicated by the price closing above $105, has not yet materialized (again). The 35-39 buy signal from March has sold today, and both the 92-96 and 218-222 are breaking to sell. This implies weakness, and if both signals sell, the dollar might finally give up and fall toward the $101 support. Multi-index convergences of this type typically mark important junctures, so let's see how this situation resolves: a breakthrough above $105 for a new up-leg or a triple sell for some serious bearishness.
GDX, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 20 days, +11.52% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $33.6)
*comment/Mar19: Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes have issued buy signals, forming a double buy scenario. The 35-39 signal is on the path and not XXed. However, typical of such signals, a correction has ensued. It's critical for this correction not to deepen beyond $28; otherwise, both buy signals will conclude and possibly defer the bull market until the latter half of the year. To confirm the bull market a price rise over $32 is necessary.
NEW/Apr08: The price has indeed risen above $32, confirming the bull market. Simultaneously, both the 218-222 and 439-443 indices have triggered buy signals, adding to long-term bullishness.
*comment/Mar19: The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated, marking the fourth such signal in the last two months. To sustain this signal, the price needs to remain above $34 for a while and then rise to $40 by mid-April. The ability to surpass this resistance level will determine if the bull market is ready to gain momentum.
NEW/Apr08: The price has indeed risen above $40, confirming the bull market. Simultaneously, both the 218-222 and 439-443 indices have triggered buy signals, adding to long-term bullishness.
GLD, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 115 days, +18.31% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $216.48)
*comment/Mar19: GLD has shifted to a bullish setup with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades (potential long-term bull), although it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active.
The gold spot price closed at an all-time high on March 1st, hitting $2083. This marks the seventh time since April 2023 that it entered the $2060-2100 range. Unlike previous instances, this breakout was not followed by sharp sell-offs. With support around the $2060 level, the initial target of $2200 has already been achieved. Ultimately, the target for this move, based on the inverse head and shoulders pattern, is $2521, before a larger correction may occur. The only piece missing in this overall bullish picture is the gold stocks breakout which should come in time.
NEW/Apr08: The bull market is progressing smoothly. A consolidation phase is likely to begin soon, followed by a push towards the $2533 target. After reaching this level, a more substantial correction is anticipated.
SLV, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 35 days, +18.75% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $25.4)
*comment/Apr08: Silver is in a true bull configuration, with all long and very long-term indices on buy positions. The initial targets following the breakout have been achieved, and now a consolidation phase is expected. After this consolidation, the next upward wave is anticipated to propel the price towards $26.45 ($29.29 spot), where a significant resistance level resides. Breaking through this resistance will be crucial for a potential move towards the all-time high. This progression could unfold over the next 2-3 months if the conditions align. Te support is around $23.5.
TIP, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed, 6 days, -0.06% (also 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.59)
*comment/Mar19: The TIPs chart currently shows a bullish configuration, although the 92-96 buy signal is currently off the path. The signal indicated a temporary high and also marked the recent low at $102 as the medium-term bottom. Since then, the price has been moving sideways within a tight range of $105-$108. A breakout from this range will provide clarity on the direction of the next leg.
TLT, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 53 days, -2.68% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $91.38)
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 48 days, +17.74% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $35.24)
*comment/Mar25: Contrary to expectations, the price has risen and the 92-96 index generated a buy signal, complementing the existing 35-39 buy signal and turning the structure bullish. Such signals often mark temporary tops. The upcoming correction will determine if this trend will evolve into a bull market or revert to a trading range, with the next target around the $22 area. The SKI structure is promising for a bullish outcome, but only time will tell.
NEW/Apr08: The 92-96 buy signal has proven to be bullish, with the price rising by 10% since its inception. With the 218-222 also on buy signal and 439-443 breaking to buy it may be time to start buying dips.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true) (inside off path 92-96 BUY), 2 days, -0.62% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $30.35)
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
NEW/Nov20: I am worried about the Aussie uranium stocks not following the USA counterparts' breakout. I am 50% long.
NEW/Dec14: It appears that Aussie stocks have potentially reached the bottom of the correction. I've added to my position, and now I'm 75% long, with all positions in Aussie stocks (DYL, BOE, BMN, PDN, AGE).
NEW/Jan12: The price fell short of selling the 35-39 index by one day. Instead, it surged strongly to break through the recent high which is typical bull market behaviour. I am happy with my position and letting it run for now. However, the $32 level could be a strong resistance for a while.
NEW/Feb12: The $32 resistance level has proven to be a formidable barrier, suggesting that some form of consolidation or correction may be necessary to reload and recharge. In light of this, I've taken some profits (not all) and am now seeking to re-enter at lower levels. 50% long.
NEW/Feb16: I kept selling into strength throughout the past week to further lock in profits, reducing my trading position to 25% long. I intend to persist with this strategy until I return to my core position.
NEW/Mar01: As I said two weeks ago I sold all my old positions and am now buying back at support (Aussie stocks, BOE, PDN, DYL and BMN). 50% long (excluding core which I do not touch) but I will trade around these positions until I am sure that the bottom has been in place.
NEW/Mar06: I've realized short-term profits and have reduced my position to my core holdings. Now, I'm preparing to begin accumulating again.
NEW/Mar19: Since my last update, I've accumulated 75% in my trading account. Most of these positions were acquired below their 50-day moving average (MAV), and I plan to trade around them as they reach this level on the way up. I remain uncertain whether the bottom will be tested again.
NEW/Apr08: The 35-39 buy signal has occurred again within the 92-96 buy signal. While this may be the start of a new up-leg it also can be a part of a reset for the bull run. I'm currently 75% committed in my trading account but prepared to sell if the $29 support is breached. If the 92-96 signal is tested and holds, I'll consider adding to a 100% trading position.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 76 days, +12.63%; run pattern in-progress 1D/2U/+1.21%perday; xxing=off_off_on (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $10.97)
*comment/Mar19: The recent generation of the 92-96 buy signal has put the USERX chart in a bullish SKI configuration, suggesting a potential bull market. After a rally that followed the buy signal, USERX remains in a strong short-term position. If a consolidation or correction occurs in the next few weeks, there is enough room before the support is hit, with $9.2 serving as a key level. However, it's important to note that USERX has yet to confirm a bull market until the $10.28 resistance is surpassed, warranting caution.
NEW/Mar25: It is worth noting that the current consolidation is playing right into long-term 218-222 and 439-443 index resistances. Both index's back prices are now crossing the pivotal $10.28 level on their way down. This convergence underscores the significance of the current juncture, where a successful breach of resistance and close above $10.28 could signal the emergence of a long-term bullish trend. This setup mirrors the scenario observed in the gold chart back in March 2023.
NEW/Mar28: I've emphasized the significance of the $10.28 level since the top of 2020, and today the USERX price settled precisely at $10.28. If the price manages to close above this level twice, I will start buying dips until fully invested. Both long-term indexes, 218-222 and 439-443, are now breaking towards buy signals.
NEW/Apr02: Today the 218-222 index generated a buy signal and now all major indexes are on the buy 35-39, 92-96, 218-222 and 439-443. The last four times that the 218-222 buy was generated it marked the exact top. However, the SKI structure is solid and the price closed above the $10.28 level two times. Short-term technicals are overbought but longer term they are not. Overall, the gold stocks seem poised for further upside, likely following some consolidation. I am prepared to start buying dips.
NEW/Apr05: With the bull market now confirmed, I've shifted my strategy to holding tight and buying dips until intermediate tops are reached (where I will reduce), typically indicated by ADX(14)>50 on the weekly chart. The next target is around $12.33, where significant resistance is expected. However, if the price falls below $10.28 again, I'll reconsider my thesis of a true bull market.
New/Apr08: It's worth noting that with a down day tomorrow, a 1down 2up price pattern may emerge. This is the most common pattern for market tops (70% probability) and could signal the start of a correction. The $10-10.28 area now represents support.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 19 days, +13.99% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $7752)
*comment/Mar15: XGD.AX is currently on a true bull buy signal. However, further upward movement is required to prevent a return to the bear trend.
Generation of the signal has initiated a consolidation phase (as expected), which has been relatively mild thus far (good) but may not be sufficient to maintain the bullish stance. To confirm the bullish trend, a breakout above the $7000 resistance level is necessary, with a target of at least $7500 by the first week of April. However, trader sentiment appears overly optimistic, and gold's COT positioning is nearing overcrowded levels, making such a move less likely. If it happens regardless it will be proof that this signal is for real.
If the market struggles and the consolidation transforms into a correction, support at the $6600 level will be crucial. A failure to hold this level could result in a retest of $6000-6100, delaying the bullish outcome to the second half of the year.
I am 50% long and happy to stay that way if the next move is to the upside. If the $6600 cannot hold I will be reducing my position.
NEW/Apr02: The 218-222 index generated a buy signal, aligning with all major indexes now on a buy signal. While this might mark the start of a correction I now expect that in the next two months, the bull market will be confirmed with the price closing over $7700. In the short-term, the SKI structure is still vulnerable if the price dips below $7000 because it might end the 92-96 buy signal. I am prepared to overlook this as long as the price holds above the $7000 level. I am ready to begin buying dips. 50% long currently.
NEW/Apr05: I started adding on Friday morning. Added about 10% on a gap-down opening, 60% long now. Historically, Aussies tend to lead in the early stages of a bull market and lag as the bull market nears its end. Significant tops in the XGD gold bull from 2000 to 2011 were marked by an ADX of 61 in May 2022, an ADX of 51 in November 2003, an ADX of 52 in May 2006, and an ADX of 38 in December 2011 (notice the underperformance towards the end). Currently, the ADX stands at 14.07. One could argue that we haven't even received confirmation yet, as it would require a close above the $7700 level (which might occur today but is not warranted).
NEW/Apr08: The price has indeed closed above the $7700 level, signalling strength. A period of consolidation within the $7400-$7700 range would be healthy, potentially setting the stage for a bull market acceleration later this month. Currently, I'm 60% long, awaiting opportunities to buy on dips.
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