VisualSKI - USERX and XGD.AX SKI charts

        

email: branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com

X: BMGold @Brankoasko93725

USERX

USERX long indices

XGD.AX

XGD.AX long indices

The State Of Indices

 

email:  branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com

X:  BMGold @Brankoasko93725

SandP 500,  on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 117 days, +17.68%; (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $5116)

*Comment/Dec29:  The S&P is currently exhibiting a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal marked the beginning of a rally that brought the price close to the old all-time high at $4818. While short-term overbought conditions could potentially lead to a correction, the long-term structure now appears to be bullish. However, at this moment, I'm not inclined to actively pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering reevaluating my position after a potential correction has occurred.

NEW/Jan19: Unfortunately, the correction didn't go deep enough to get me interested in establishing a long position. The price action remained sideways until it touched the 16-20 index back prices, followed by an explosive upward movement, which is characteristic of bull markets. Today, the price closed at a new all-time high. The Commitment of Traders (COT) readings are neutral, and the long-term SKI indices are on buy signals. Thus, everything on this chart points to a continuation of bullishness.

NEW/Mar13: The rally appears to be getting long in the tooth. I'm waiting for a break of support to consider entering a short position once more.

NEW/Apr08: The price has broken down from a bearish rising wedge pattern, accompanied by a bearish mode in the MACD indicator. Speculators are buying into this fall, while commercials are selling, indicating a bearish sentiment. Additionally, there are divergences present across various indicator plots. However, the net positions of both commercials and speculators in the COT report are not as extreme as they have been at significant recent highs. I anticipate a consolidation or correction phase is currently underway, possibly targeting the 50-day moving average at $5089 or even filling the gap at $4983 in a more serious scenario.

New/Apr12: The bearish development continues with the recent decisive break. I'm actively seeking a short entry opportunity.

New/Apr26: The gap mentioned in the March 13th post has indeed been closed. The 50-day moving average support has been broken, and the 35-39 index sold and holding. I will initiate a short position on a 16-20 sell signal or in case of an obvious news failure before that, perhaps on FOMC day. However, if the 35-39 index buys back, my plan will be cancelled.

HUI,  on 92-96 BUY (with 35-39 for a double buy), OnPath, NotXXed(true), 34 days, +18.0% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $270.97)

*comment/Mar11: Simultaneous 92-96 and 35-39 buy signals were generated today for a double buy, with 92-96 on the path and not xxed therefore indicating a true bull market. However, I'm cautious and see these signals as part of forming a bottom. The breakout into a bull market isn't confirmed until at least $250 is broken, but more probably $270. Nonetheless, upward pressure persists, with the next target at $250. A healthy consolidation around $230-235 is desirable.

NEW/Mar25: Consolidation is indeed underway. The 92-96 index back prices will dip to around $210 over the next seven days. In this period the price is allowed to drop as low as $220 and the buy signal will remain intact, but it will then need to rise above $245 by April 10th to avoid rising back prices.

NEW/Apr03: The $250 target has been reached, with the 218-222 index breaking towards a buy signal. Momentum remains strong, suggesting that the $270 target will likely be achieved soon. Interestingly, despite gold reaching an all-time high, the HUI and other gold miner indices are still relatively subdued, with HUI at $260, below its 2020 high of $373 and far from its 2011 peak of $638. Resistance at around $300 from the 2020 high implies a significant hurdle to overcome before a substantial acceleration can be expected. Until then, navigating levels below $300 may feel like overcoming a wall of worry.

NEW/Apr08: The $270 target has been hit. A healthy consolidation between $250 and $270 in the coming weeks would be beneficial, but it is not guaranteed. Support currently lies around $245.

NEW/Apr26: So far, the consolidation is proceeding as anticipated. The lowest price reached was $248.67, just slightly above my projected support level. Currently, we are back at the top of the range at $270. It's likely that more time is required for this consolidation to conclude, but ultimately, we should see an upward move with the next target around $300. Support is currently around $250-255.

$NDX - Nasdaq,  on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 119 days, +16.26% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $17782)

*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal aligning with the breakthrough of the resistance line enhances its potential impact. An all-time high has been achieved, but in the short term, the price appears to be significantly overextended and possibly in overbought territory.

NEW/Jan19: The bull run persists. The manner in which the price engaged with the 16-20 index back prices suggests more of the same in the future.

NEW/Jan26: SKI-wise, there haven't been any changes compared to my previous comment. In the short term, there is a lag in the performance of NDX compared to SPX, which might indicate the development of a short-term top. However, the fact that speculators have reduced their COT position is not consistent with the formation of a top. The pattern to watch for would be the speculators buying into the rally while NDX lags behind SPX. I am on the sidelines, waiting.

NEW/Mar13: The rally appears to be getting long in the tooth. I'm waiting for a break of support to consider entering a short position once more.

$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 35-39 SELL, 10 days, +2.47% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $2016)

*comment/Feb16: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal from November 2023 has sold and instantly bought back, while the 92-96 index is on a buy signal. This signal is occurring just below the upper boundary of the upward-sloping trending channel dating back to the 2022 low. However, this 35-39 signal could either mark a top or signify the beginning of acceleration. Based on the current structure, I am leaning toward a scenario where it marks a top, potentially leading to a correction, with a minimum target around $1850. If this prediction holds true, the correction may end with the price testing the support of the 92-96 index, at which point the future direction of this market will become clearer.

NEW/Feb27: The 35-39 buy signal generated on February 14th did indeed mark a top, followed by a minor correction. This correction subsequently reversed back to a 35-39 buy signal. The prevailing pressure seems to be on the upside. However, to confirm the start of a new upward trend, the $2070 level needs to be surpassed. If this level is successfully breached, the initial target will be $2150, with the ultimate target set at $2350.

NEW/Mar13: The $2070 resistance level has persisted for the past three weeks, while support is also holding near this level. A resolution seems imminent, with either a breakout above $2070 leading to a rally or a downturn below $2060 signalling a correction towards $1900ish.

NEW/Apr12: The support has been breached, signalling further downside movement. The initial target on the downside is around $1880. I will go short on a 35-39 sell signal.

NEW/Apr26: The 35-39 index did sell, and the downside target was reached. I closed my initial short position and intend to short again, likely on a 16-20 sell signal. However, if the 35-39 index buys back, I will cancel my plan.

$TNX - 10Y yield, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 55 days, +10.2% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.61%)

*comment/Mar19: The SKI chart currently exhibits a bearish configuration, but the technical support around the 3.9% level remains resilient, delaying confirmation of the bearish trend. Although the top observed in February initially signalled a continuation of the downtrend, the price reversed upwards, now testing that same top at 4.3% again. If the price surpasses this level, the target could shift to 4.5-4.6%, potentially prompting a bullish reversal in the SKI chart. More clarity on the chart's state is expected following the FOMC meeting tomorrow. 

NEW/Mar25: The 4.3% resistance level is holding. If the next signal is a 35-39 sell, I expect the 4% support to be tested. The recent FOMC meeting was negative for yields (so far).

NEW/Apr09: The bond market action is pushing yields higher, with the resistance at 4.3% appearing to be broken and a potential 92-96 buy signal on the horizon. The prevailing trend seems upward, suggesting that the monetary policy might be too loose. Will this lead to the FED rising rates instead of cutting? For now, gold is not bothered with the rise of 10yy. On the contrary, it appears they are telling the same story, the FED needs to tighten (but is not likely to).

NEW/Apr12: The 92-96 buy signal has been generated, coinciding with a peak so far. The 4.6% target has already been reached, suggesting a minor correction before further rise. With upward pressure prevailing, yields may surge to 4.8%-5.0%, possibly revealing systemic vulnerabilities like the last time they were at these levels. This chart is bullish for the dollar. Given the recent lack of a strong correlation with the gold price, I am not sure how much it is bearish for gold but I am sure it is not bullish.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY (double buy with 35-39), OnPath, NotXXed(true), 34 days, +18.38% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $139.78)

*comment/Mar19: Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes have issued buy signals, forming a double buy scenario. The 92-96 signal, is on the path and not XXed, therefore marking the potential for a true bull market. However, typical of such signals, a correction has ensued. It's critical for this correction not to deepen beyond $110; otherwise, both buy signals will conclude, returning us to the downtrend channel and possibly deferring the bull market until the latter half of the year. To confirm the bull market a price rise over $130 is necessary.

NEW/Apr08: The necessary condition to confirm the bull market has been met, with the breaking of the $130 resistance level. Support is currently around $125. While some healthy consolidation would be welcomed, the overall outlook remains bullish.

ASA, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 65 days, +19.06% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $17.49)

*comment/Mar25: ASA is in a bullish setup with both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes on buy signal. Confirmation of a bull market requires a close above $15.5 by early April or the 92-96 signal will end. Falling below $14.2 could delay the bull market until later in the year.

NEW/Apr08: The bull market has been confirmed. Breaking through the key resistance at $15.5 triggered an explosive surge, leading to buy signals on the 218-222 and 439-443 long-term indices, indicating long-term bullishness. While some consolidation is expected, the next target is in the vicinity of $19.5 and should be reached within the next two months.

BITCOIN, last signal 35-39 SELL (while on 92-96 BUY), 15 days, -0.49 (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $63133)

*comment/Mar22: BTC is in a bull market, with both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes on a buy signal. Following the attainment of a new all-time high, a correction has commenced. It appears that more time is required for the upward trend to resume, possibly after testing the $58K support level.

NEW/Apr12: 35-39 index sold. Correction is ongoing. If 60K is breached, the target shifts to $56K with a potential extension to $52K. To initiate the next wave up, the 35-39 index needs to buy back.

NEW/Apr26: Weakness has been evident in BTC price over the last few weeks. If it continues to struggle to break above $68K, I may initiate a short position with a target of $56K.

COPX (copper miners ETF), on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 48 days, +33.5% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $48.02)

*comment/Apr08: COPX is currently in a bullish configuration, with both medium and long-term indices on buy signals, suggesting long-term bullishness. The momentum since the 92-96 buy signal has been remarkable, with the price nearing the $47 target level. However, breaking through $47 may face resistance, leading to potential consolidation or correction inside the $40-47 range. Once the $47 level is surpassed, it would confirm the onset of a new bull market.

NEW/Apr26: Unexpectedly, the price surged above the $47 level and closed decisively above it. While I am sceptical that a new leg-up has started, this development is bullish. Let's observe if it can maintain this level for a day or two. If it does, the next targets are a$48.84, $49.83, and $50.63.

NEW/Apr29: The breakout is holding, suggesting we are heading towards $48.84 before a potential correction occurs.

DXY (dollar index), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 12 days, -0.38% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $105.64)  

*comment/Apr26: DXY is currently in a bullish SKI constellation. The resistance at $105 has finally been breached, signalling a new upward movement. The next target is $107.13, with a further potential target of $107.64. However, the COT positioning, where the dollar long is excessively crowded, presents a challenge to this scenario.

GDX, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 35 days, +15.4% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on  BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $34.77)

*comment/Mar19: Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes have issued buy signals, forming a double buy scenario. The 35-39 signal is on the path and not XXed. However, typical of such signals, a correction has ensued. It's critical for this correction not to deepen beyond $28; otherwise, both buy signals will conclude and possibly defer the bull market until the latter half of the year. To confirm the bull market a price rise over $32 is necessary.

NEW/Apr08: The price has indeed risen above $32, confirming the bull market. Simultaneously, both the 218-222 and 439-443 indices have triggered buy signals, adding to long-term bullishness.

GDXJ,  on 92-95 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 37 days, +18.26% (also, 16-20 SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $42.67)

*comment/Mar19: The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated, marking the fourth such signal in the last two months. To sustain this signal, the price needs to remain above $34 for a while and then rise to $40 by mid-April. The ability to surpass this resistance level will determine if the bull market is ready to gain momentum.

NEW/Apr08: The price has indeed risen above $40, confirming the bull market. Simultaneously, both the 218-222 and 439-443 indices have triggered buy signals, adding to long-term bullishness.

GLD,  on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 130 days,  +18.15%  (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $216.18)

*comment/Mar19: GLD has shifted to a bullish setup with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades (potential long-term bull), although it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active.

The gold spot price closed at an all-time high on March 1st, hitting $2083. This marks the seventh time since April 2023 that it entered the $2060-2100 range. Unlike previous instances, this breakout was not followed by sharp sell-offs. With support around the $2060 level, the initial target of $2200 has already been achieved. Ultimately, the target for this move, based on the inverse head and shoulders pattern, is $2521, before a larger correction may occur. The only piece missing in this overall bullish picture is the gold stocks breakout which should come in time.

NEW/Apr08: The bull market is progressing smoothly. A consolidation phase is likely to begin soon, followed by a push towards the $2533 target. After reaching this level, a more substantial correction is anticipated.

NEW/Apr13: Gold price reversed sharply post hitting the $2404 target (100% Fibo extension). Intraday, a reversal pattern formed. Noteworthy sentiment-wise: every gold pundit that I follow declared medium-term top and sold positions. That is a bullish signal for me. Weekly chart indicators are far from typical medium-term top levels. Daily charts, though overbought, lack divergences typical at tops. I believe the widespread expectation of gold topping is premature; the target at $2533 is likely before reversal.

SLV,  on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 50 days, +16.08% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $24.83)

*comment/Apr08: Silver is in a true bull configuration, with all long and very long-term indices on buy positions. The initial targets following the breakout have been achieved, and now a consolidation phase is expected. After this consolidation, the next upward wave is anticipated to propel the price towards $26.45 ($29.29 spot), where a significant resistance level resides. Breaking through this resistance will be crucial for a potential move towards the all-time high. This progression could unfold over the next 2-3 months if the conditions align. Te support is around $23.5.

NEW/Apr13: The $29.29 target was hit quickly after the breakout, contrary to my expectations. Now the price is at significant resistance. Like the gold sector, every pundit declared this a medium-term top, calling for a significant correction. In my opinion, the correction should be shallow and short. I'll change my mind if an outright equity market crash starts.

TIP,  last signal 35-39 SELL, 11 days, +0.25% (also 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY > to SELL 105.21/-0.78% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.04)

*comment/Mar19: The TIPs chart currently shows a bullish configuration, although the 92-96 buy signal is currently off the path. The signal indicated a temporary high and also marked the recent low at $102 as the medium-term bottom. Since then, the price has been moving sideways within a tight range of $105-$108. A breakout from this range will provide clarity on the direction of the next leg.

NEW/Apr26: The price of TIPs continues to deteriorate, with the bottom of the range above described being tested. A new development is the 92-96 index breaking to sell. If this sell signal coincides with a break of the $105 support level (possibly around the FOMC meeting), we could witness a sudden crash. This chart is indeed quite alarming.

TLT,  last signal 92-96 SELL, 11 days, +0.1% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $88.98)

*comment/Mar19: The 92-96 index bought at the end of January, signalling the potential for a true bull market. Confirmation requires two consecutive closes above 100.53, which hasn't happened yet. Since the signal, the price has remained within a tight range of $92-$97. A breakout from this range will determine if the buy signal can survive and provide clarity on the next leg's direction.

NEW/Apr13: The 92-96 true bull signal has ended. At the same time the $92 support broke so the constellation is now bearish. The next target is around $82.

UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 63 days, +12.5% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 34.62/+2.82% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on  BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $33.67)

*comment/Mar25: Contrary to expectations, the price has risen and the 92-96 index generated a buy signal, complementing the existing 35-39 buy signal and turning the structure bullish. Such signals often mark temporary tops. The upcoming correction will determine if this trend will evolve into a bull market or revert to a trading range, with the next target around the $22 area. The SKI structure is promising for a bullish outcome, but only time will tell.

NEW/Apr08: The 92-96 buy signal has proven to be bullish, with the price rising by 10% since its inception. With the 218-222 also on buy signal and 439-443 breaking to buy it may be time to start buying dips.

URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true) (inside off path 92-96 BUY), 17 days, -0.52% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY > to SELL 31.38/+3.29% or  higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $30.38)

*comment/Sep25: URA is in a bull market. The start of the bull was marked by a triple buy signal 16-20/92-96/218-222.
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.

NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.

NEW/Nov20: I am worried about the Aussie uranium stocks not following the USA counterparts' breakout. I am 50% long.

NEW/Dec14: It appears that Aussie stocks have potentially reached the bottom of the correction. I've added to my position, and now I'm 75% long, with all positions in Aussie stocks (DYL, BOE, BMN, PDN, AGE).

NEW/Jan12: The price fell short of selling the 35-39 index by one day. Instead, it surged strongly to break through the recent high which is typical bull market behaviour. I am happy with my position and letting it run for now. However, the $32 level could be a strong resistance for a while.

NEW/Feb12: The $32 resistance level has proven to be a formidable barrier, suggesting that some form of consolidation or correction may be necessary to reload and recharge. In light of this, I've taken some profits (not all) and am now seeking to re-enter at lower levels. 50% long.

NEW/Feb16: I kept selling into strength throughout the past week to further lock in profits, reducing my trading position to 25% long. I intend to persist with this strategy until I return to my core position.

NEW/Mar01: As I said two weeks ago I sold all my old positions and am now buying back at support (Aussie stocks, BOE, PDN, DYL and BMN). 50% long (excluding core which I do not touch) but I will trade around these positions until I am sure that the bottom has been in place.

NEW/Mar06: I've realized short-term profits and have reduced my position to my core holdings. Now, I'm preparing to begin accumulating again.

NEW/Mar19: Since my last update, I've accumulated 75% in my trading account. Most of these positions were acquired below their 50-day moving average (MAV), and I plan to trade around them as they reach this level on the way up. I remain uncertain whether the bottom will be tested again.

NEW/Apr08: The 35-39 buy signal has occurred again within the 92-96 buy signal. While this may be the start of a new up-leg it also can be a part of a reset for the bull run. I'm currently 75% committed in my trading account but prepared to sell if the $29 support is breached. If the 92-96 signal is tested and holds, I'll consider adding to a 100% trading position.

NEW/Apr29: Today's action was beautiful; the 92-96 held as expected in the bull market. If we manage to cross over $31 and maintain that level, a new upward wave will be underway.

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 91 days, +16.94%; run pattern in-progress 1D/3U/+1.39%perday; xxing=off_off_on (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $11.39)

*comment/Apr22: USERX is on an XXed 92-96 buy signal, suggesting a potential bull market. Following the buy signal, a rally ensued, leaving USERX in a strong short-term position. However, a correction/consolidation was initiated post reaching $11.2. My focus is now mainly on weekly charts, which do not indicate any significant overbought conditions. Nevertheless, my perspective may alter if there's an outright crash in the equity market. The correction target is $10.28, possibly briefly extending to $9.9.

NEW/Apr26: The previous top at $11.21 has been breached, suggesting a possible start of a new leg up. However, there's a potential problem: the current price pattern is 1 down followed by two small up days, which is one of the most bearish run patterns. The pattern will be confirmed if on Monday USERX closes down. Considering the state of the equity market and the potential for a significant drawdown, I'll likely lighten up my position if Monday is a down day.

NEW/Apr29: The potentially bearish price pattern has been avoided, which aligns with my expectation that this move is not over yet. If the fifth wave up has begun, the target is $12.44, where a more serious correction should start.

XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 33 days, +15.95% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $7885)

*comment/Mar15: XGD.AX is currently on a true bull buy signal.

NEW/Apr13: After Friday's session, I decided to take profits on the 10% that I purchased two weeks ago. I'm retaining the remaining 50% trading position as I believe this correction is unlikely to be significant in depth or duration. I plan to buy on dips. Nevertheless, I acknowledge that my stance could shift if the equity market undergoes an outright crash. For that reason, I have tightened up the stops.

NEW/Apr22: The recent action validates my decision to reduce to 50%; the correction persists. I still anticipate modest depth and duration, unlikely to surpass the old resistance zone at $7000, if it reaches there at all. More likely correction target: $7100-$7300 range. I'll begin adding positions once the price reaches this level.

NEW/Apr26: So far, my prediction about the correction being shallow has been accurate. The lowest price reached was $7408, which didn't quite hit my buying zone. I did make some purchases, but only a small position, so I am currently 55% long. If USERX confirms a 1 down 2 up pattern on Monday, I might again go back to 50% on Tuesday or even lower.