email: branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com
X: BMGold @Brankoasko93725
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 89 days, +19.12%; (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $5178)
*Comment/Dec29: The S&P is currently exhibiting a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal marked the beginning of a rally that brought the price close to the old all-time high at $4818. While short-term overbought conditions could potentially lead to a correction, the long-term structure now appears to be bullish. However, at this moment, I'm not inclined to actively pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering reevaluating my position after a potential correction has occurred.
NEW/Jan19: Unfortunately, the correction didn't go deep enough to get me interested in establishing a long position. The price action remained sideways until it touched the 16-20 index back prices, followed by an explosive upward movement, which is characteristic of bull markets. Today, the price closed at a new all-time high. The Commitment of Traders (COT) readings are neutral, and the long-term SKI indices are on buy signals. Thus, everything on this chart points to a continuation of bullishness.
NEW/Mar13: The rally appears to be getting long in the tooth. I'm waiting for a break of support to consider entering a short position once more.
HUI, on 92-96 BUY (with 35-39 for a double buy), OnPath, NotXXed(true), 6 days, -1.69% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $234.57)
*comment/Mar11: Simultaneous 92-96 and 35-39 buy signals were generated today for a double buy, with 92-96 on the path and not xxed therefore indicating a true bull market. However, I'm cautious and see these signals as part of forming a bottom. The breakout into a bull market isn't confirmed until at least $250 is broken, but more probably $270. Nonetheless, upward pressure persists, with the next target at $250. A healthy consolidation around $230-235 is desirable.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 91 days, +17.89% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $18032)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal aligning with the breakthrough of the resistance line enhances its potential impact. An all-time high has been achieved, but in the short term, the price appears to be significantly overextended and possibly in overbought territory.
NEW/Jan19: The bull run persists. The manner in which the price engaged with the 16-20 index back prices suggests more of the same in the future.
NEW/Jan26: SKI-wise, there haven't been any changes compared to my previous comment. In the short term, there is a lag in the performance of NDX compared to SPX, which might indicate the development of a short-term top. However, the fact that speculators have reduced their COT position is not consistent with the formation of a top. The pattern to watch for would be the speculators buying into the rally while NDX lags behind SPX. I am on the sidelines, waiting.
NEW/Mar13: The rally appears to be getting long in the tooth. I'm waiting for a break of support to consider entering a short position once more.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed, 15 days, -0.23% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $2035)
*comment/Feb16: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal from November 2023 has sold and instantly bought back, while the 92-96 index is on a buy signal. This signal is occurring just below the upper boundary of the upward-sloping trending channel dating back to the 2022 low. However, this 35-39 signal could either mark a top or signify the beginning of acceleration. Based on the current structure, I am leaning toward a scenario where it marks a top, potentially leading to a correction, with a minimum target around $1850. If this prediction holds true, the correction may end with the price testing the support of the 92-96 index, at which point the future direction of this market will become clearer.
NEW/Feb27: The 35-39 buy signal generated on February 14th did indeed mark a top, followed by a minor correction. This correction subsequently reversed back to a 35-39 buy signal. The prevailing pressure seems to be on the upside. However, to confirm the start of a new upward trend, the $2070 level needs to be surpassed. If this level is successfully breached, the initial target will be $2150, with the ultimate target set at $2350.
NEW/Mar13: The $2070 resistance level has persisted for the past three weeks, while support is also holding near this level. A resolution seems imminent, with either a breakout above $2070 leading to a rally or a downturn below $2060 signalling a correction towards $1870ish.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 27 days, +2.63% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.3%)
*comment/Mar19: The SKI chart currently exhibits a bearish configuration, but the technical support around the 3.9% level remains resilient, delaying confirmation of the bearish trend. Although the top observed in February initially signalled a continuation of the downtrend, the price reversed upwards, now testing that same top at 4.3% again. If the price surpasses this level, the target could shift to 4.5-4.6%, potentially prompting a bullish reversal in the SKI chart. More clarity on the chart's state is expected following the FOMC meeting tomorrow.
XAU, on 92-96 BUY (double buy with 35-39), OnPath, NotXXed(true),6 days, -1.06% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $116.83)
*comment/Mar19: Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes have issued buy signals, forming a double buy scenario. The 92-96 signal, is on the path and not XXed, therefore marking the potential for a true bull market. However, typical of such signals, a correction has ensued. It's critical for this correction not to deepen beyond $110; otherwise, both buy signals will conclude, returning us to the downtrend channel and possibly deferring the bull market until the latter half of the year. To confirm the bull market a price rise over $130 is necessary.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 37 days, +0.2% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.72)
*comment/Dec15: Following today's 92-96 buy signal, the SKI structure for ASA presents a bullish alignment. However, there are some noteworthy issues to consider. In comparison to other gold indices, ASA seems to lack significant short-term momentum. In SKI terms, this is evident as the 35-39 index seems to have more influence than the 92-96 signal at the moment. While the SKI structure is relatively solid, the technical analysis (TA) setup is not particularly favourable. This is primarily due to the way the price interacts with the resistance line, which resembles the formation of a short-term peak. To confirm the 92-96 buy signal, it appears that a 218-222 buy signal will be necessary for the price to close above the trendline, which is currently around $16. This confirmation would strengthen the argument for a sustained bullish move, potentially propelling the price towards the $18.5 target. As long as the spot gold price remains above $1970, such a scenario appears plausible. However, for a more enduring medium-term rally, it's likely that spot gold needs to maintain levels above $2100, serving as a critical catalyst for continued upward movement.
NEW/Dec19: The close today at precisely $16 marks a potential breakout, but it's crucial to see a follow-through to confirm this move. As mentioned earlier, the structure of ASA's SKI configuration appears solid and somewhat distinct from other gold indices, which is an encouraging sign for the sector, especially given ASA's track record of marking significant market turns in recent years. While the 35-39 index has been in charge (on the path), now with the 92-96 on board, everything seems to be aligning for a significant bullish run. The first target is set at $18.5, but the ascent shouldn't necessarily stop there. There's potential for the price to reach $21.5, possibly by March 2024, if this bullish trend has indeed started. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
NEW/Dec29: At present, none of the conditions mentioned earlier for a swift climb to $18.5 and beyond seem to have materialized. There hasn't been a significant follow-through after the $16 level was breached, and the gold price has once again failed around $2070-2080. It appears that a short-term correction may be underway, possibly testing the $14-14.5 range. In the event of the 92-96 index selling during this correction, it would be preferable to avoid seeing the 35-39 sell signal emerge before the 92-96 buy signal returns. The current support zone is approximately between $13.5 and $14, with resistance remaining at $16.
NEW/Jan03: The correction is underway and the 16-20 buy signal has already been generated. Let's assess possible scenarios.
1. If the current decline continues, the next signal to look for is the 92-96 sell signal. If this sell signal marks a low and is followed by a 92-96 buy signal, that buy signal would be a true buy signal, and whether it is followed by a 35-39 sell signal becomes less relevant. To support this scenario, the price should not breach the $14ish level on the downside and then rise above $14.6ish before mid-January. Ultimately, overcoming the $16 level would confirm a bull market.
2. If the fall continues, and the next signal is the 92-96 sell signal without marking a low, and it is followed by a 35-39 sell signal, this would turn the SKI configuration bearish, suggesting further potential decline with a target around $12ish.
3. If the recently executed 16-20 buy signal marks a low and a rally emerges, pushing the price above $16 (the recent top), this would signify the beginning of a bull wave.
A similar configuration exists with all other gold indices, but the setup is a bit tighter. Considering that the ASA chart was the best-performing SKI chart in the gold sector in recent years, I am paying due attention.
NEW/Jan12: Today's robust rally reduces the likelihood of a 92-96 SELL signal becoming the next one to trigger. While still possible, it now requires precise maneuvering, which isn't typical. This makes scenario #3 the most likely to unfold. If Thursday marked the bottom, we may observe a gradual sideways or upward movement throughout the month, and possibly beyond, to reach the $16 mark once again. This could set the stage for a potential move to $18.5 and beyond for the remainder of the year. My current bias leans towards a bullish outlook. However, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 indices at this stage would remain rather bearish, potentially causing a sharp drop to at least $12.
NEW/Jan19: Contrary to my earlier expectations, only scenarios #1 and #2 are now viable. The 92-96 index has sold, and it remains to be seen whether the 35-39 index will hold long enough for the 92-96 index to buy back first and potentially lead the way for a bull market. This kind of precise maneuvering is typically uncommon, but we'll see how it unfolds. Structurally, the chart still appears sound for a potential rally to commence from this level.
NEW/Jan26: As expected, the precise movement required for a true bull signal hasn't materialized. However, after the 35-39 sell signal, the price rose to buy back the 92-96 index, leading to a shift in the SKI structure back to bullish, which aligns better with the TA structure. Considering this, is it possible to suggest a buy at this point? I'd say, yes. The 92-96 signal is marked as XXed, but it's of the JPOT type, which makes it buyable. If one chooses to proceed, it's wise to establish a stop loss at the point of a 92-96 sell signal. For those who prefer confirmation, waiting for two consecutive closes above $16 could be a suitable buy point. In SKI terms, this might coincide with a 35-39 buy signal.
It's worth noting that the current buy signal can easily transition into a true bull signal if, within the next two weeks, the price briefly dips below $14 and then turns back up. In such an event, the 92-96 signal would conclude before being generated again, but one may want to consider selling for safety before re-entering once the renewed buy signal is issued. I wouldn't be surprised if this scenario took place because I have a feeling that there might be one more test of the gold price around $1960.
Regarding other gold indices, while they are in a similar setup, the 92-96 buy signal has yet to be generated. For USERX, which never ended the 92-96 buy signal (which is not JPOT type and therefore not buyable by pure SKI rules) the strategy of holding long positions as long as USERX stays above $9.2 and the gold spot remains above $1960 seems prudent.
Let's see if the ASA signals are going to be the most accurate again.
NEW/Jan30: So far the XXed out 92-96 buy signal worked well the price is still moving inside the well-defined boundaries (since October 2022). $15.5-$16.0 (and falling) on the upper side and $13.5-$14.0 (and rising) on the lower side. One of these will need to be broken for the next significant move to initiate
NEW/Feb27: The support at the lower boundary of the contracting triangle is currently being tested. Concurrently, the 92-96 index is breaking to sell. Over the past two months, the ASA price has missed every opportunity to capitalize on a strong 92-96 SKI structure and form a tradable bottom. Now, with the SKI structure no longer aligning with the bullish scenario, I'm not particularly enthusiastic about such a signal if it does occur (92-96 sell/buy). While it could still indicate a short-term bottom, I now require more than that to fully commit to a bullish outlook. Rather than expecting an immediate bottom followed by a rapid surge above the critical $14 level, it seems more likely that we will experience a prolonged bottoming process over the coming days. This could entail sideways to downward movement until the October low is tested, potentially surpassing it ($12.5-$12.75), before a true bottom is established. Subsequently, the generation of a 35-39 buy signal (rather than 92-96) will mark the beginning of a new upward trend. The time will tell.
NEW/Mar01:Today's rally suggests that my previous analysis may have been incorrect (see above). While the price remains within a downtrend channel, the 92-96 index has provided firm support, potentially allowing the 92-96 buy signal to persist and signal the beginning of a new upward movement. To confirm this thesis, the price must close above $14. I have shifted to a short-term bullish stance, as long as Wednesday's low holds at $13.18. However, for my bullish sentiment to extend beyond the short term, we need to see a breakout above $14.
NEW/Mar06: The break above $14, necessary for my short-term bullishness to transition to medium-term, has occurred. A 35-39 buy signal is now likely to generate, possibly marking the beginning of a short-term consolidation or correction phase. However, for the bull market to truly gain momentum, a close above $15 is needed.
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY (while on 92-96 buy), OnPath, Not XXed(true), 45 days, +48.34% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $63146 )
*comment/Oct25: BTC broke out of the 6 months trading range ($25K-$32K). The upside target is 45K.
NEW/Dec08: The price has hit the $45,000 target, but I anticipate one more push, likely reaching around $48,000, followed by a correction to test the breakout level at $32,000.
NEW/Jan09: The price has hit the $48K target as stated above. A correction should start soon, probably down to $35K.
NEW/Jan12: The correction has indeed commenced, and it appears that the 35-39 index is likely to sell tomorrow. This could signify the beginning of a phase of declining prices, possibly bottoming out in the range of 35-38K.
NEW/Jan26: The 35-39 index has indeed sold, and the correction dipped as low as $38,512. The question now is whether this marks the end of the correction or if there's more to come. It's reasonable to suggest that some more time needs to pass before we can be certain that the correction has concluded.
NEW/Feb04: The 35-39 index has produced a buy signal, but the SKI structure appears relatively weak. Therefore, I would refrain from suggesting a buy at this moment. However, if the price manages to hold around 42K until the end of February, it could lead to a change in the structure, possibly sparking a new upward trend. My bias is that one more test of the $35-38K support area is more probable than an immediate rise.
NEW/Feb12: I was proven wrong. An immediate rise was initiated by the 35-39 buy signal, which is bullish.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 20 days, +12.57% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $40.49)
NEW/Dec29: COPX is in a bullish configuration. In the broader context, since the 2021 peak, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle with a horizontal resistance zone between $42 and $44, and a rising support level currently at around $35. The presence of both the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals, in addition to the S&P 500 bull market, indicates support for the price to potentially reach the resistance area within the coming 4 weeks ($42-$44). In the short term, it's worth noting that the recent 92-96 buy signal might have marked the commencement of a minor correction.
NEW/Jan09: As expected, the 92-96 buy signal marked the start of a correction. It now appears that the correction might be more substantial than initially anticipated, possibly triggering a 92-96 sell signal. However, my bullish outlook for the next few months remains unchanged as long as the price stays above $35 and the 35-39 index doesn't sell. As long as these conditions are met, the current price fluctuations are viewed as setting the stage for a breakout.
NEW/Jan12: 92-96 index sold indeed. Read my comment above.
NEW/Feb12: The 35-39 index has sold, yet the price remains within the ascending triangle described earlier. Additionally, there is a potential for a 92-96 index buy signal to mark a short-term rally back to the upper boundary of the triangle. However, if the price closes below the recent low of $34.46, it should be regarded as a breakdown with an initial target of around $42.
NEW/Feb23: The 92-96 index did indeed generate a buy signal. While it is xxed and may mark a top, the SKI structure appears solid. Unless there is a rapid decline starting immediately, the signal could persist. Currently, I wouldn't consider this signal as a buy, but if it is followed by a new 35-39 buy signal (not expected), I might reconsider.
NEW/Mar06: Unexpectedly, the 35-39 buy signal has been generated. This is considered bullish, with an initial target in the $40-41 area. There is notable resistance at this level, and if overcome, it could pave the way for a surge towards $47.
NEW/Mar19: As anticipated, the 35-39 buy signal initiated a price ascent towards the target range of $40-41. A subsequent consolidation or correction, not exceeding $37, is anticipated before attempting to breach the resistance level again. If successful, a rise to $47 is expected.
DXY (dollar index), 35-39 crossed to BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true) (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $103.82)
*comment/Dec29: DXY is presently demonstrating a bearish SKI and technical analysis (TA) setup. However, it's important to note that the price is currently positioned just above a long-term support level that dates back to the 2011 low. Given that the current TA indicators are all in a deep oversold territory, it's unlikely that this support will be breached in the short term. Additionally, there's a possibility of a short-term dollar rally, potentially targeting the $105-106 range. As part of my strategy, I may consider taking a short position in gold during this dollar rally, which can also serve as a hedge against my long gold positions.
NEW/Jan09: So far, the correction rally has reached $103.1. I believe there's more upside potential, at least to $104 and possibly beyond, as I mentioned previously.
NEW/Jan26: A new high for the correction rally has been achieved, $103.82. This produced a 35-39 buy signal but it is xxed and therefore should represent a resistance.
NEW/Feb02: The 35-39 index did, in fact, pose strong resistance. Now, let's observe if the $101 support level will be tested again.
New/Feb07: Eventually that 35-39 index resistance broke and a 35-39 buy signal was generated. This is potentially a bullish development but it still needs confirmation by a close above $105. If $105 resistance breaks a rise to $107 should be expected.
NEW/Mar01: It has been a month since the 35-39 buy signal, and the confirmation, indicated by the price closing above $105, has not yet materialized. Today's 16-20 xxed buy signal could potentially indicate further weakness.
NEW/Mar19: A new 35-39 buy signal, is generated after the previous one failed, and the price threatens to surpass the resistance at $105. Clearing this level is crucial to confirm the bullishness of the signal. However, I still anticipate this level to act as resistance. If it doesn't, a new 92-96 buy signal will likely be triggered with a price rise above $105, signalling the beginning of a bull market for the dollar.
GDX, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.06)
*comment/Mar19: Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes have issued buy signals, forming a double buy scenario. The 35-39 signal is on the path and not XXed. However, typical of such signals, a correction has ensued. It's critical for this correction not to deepen beyond $28; otherwise, both buy signals will conclude and possibly defer the bull market until the latter half of the year. To confirm the bull market a price rise over $32 is necessary.
*comment/Mar19: The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated, marking the fourth such signal in the last two months. To sustain this signal, the price needs to remain above $34 for a while and then rise to $40 by mid-April. The ability to surpass this resistance level will determine if the bull market is ready to gain momentum.
GLD, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 102 days, +9.2% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $199.8)
*comment/Mar19: GLD has shifted to a bullish setup with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades (potential long-term bull), although it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active.
The gold spot price closed at an all-time high on March 1st, hitting $2083. This marks the seventh time since April 2023 that it entered the $2060-2100 range. Unlike previous instances, this breakout was not followed by sharp sell-offs. With support around the $2060 level, the initial target of $2200 has already been achieved. Ultimately, the target for this move, based on the inverse head and shoulders pattern, is $2521, before a larger correction may occur. The only piece missing in this overall bullish picture is the gold stocks breakout which should come in time.
SLV, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 22 days, +6.55% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $22.79)
*comment/Feb16: A drop during last week triggered a 92-96 sell signal, followed by a surge to buy the 92-96 back for a true bull buy signal. The SKI structure appears solid. This development occurred around the critical level of $20.5 and broke through the downtrend line stemming from the December top, adding further significance to the signal. Currently, it seems that a rally has commenced, targeting around $23 by the end of March. If this scenario proves incorrect, setting a stop loss at the occurrence of a 92-96 sell signal is advisable.
NEW/Mar01: The interaction between the back prices of all three indexes and the price of SLV suggests that something significant is unfolding. While the 92-96 true bull signal was initially under pressure to sell, today's rise indicates the potential to avoid this sell signal. Such an outcome would be remarkably bullish. To prevent the sell signal, the price only needs to reach $21.4 in the next few days. However, if this scenario doesn't materialize and the price falls short of this target, there is a possibility of a triple sell signal (16/35/92), likely driving the price straight down to $19.75 and potentially even lower.
NEW/Mar06: The bull signal has indeed persisted. The final confirmation of the bull market will occur with a rise over $22.75, which would trigger a 218-222 buy signal. Support is established around $21.25, as indicated by the 92-96 index.
NEW/Mar19: The price surged to the crucial resistance level at $22.75 (see chart), triggering the 218-222 index to start breaking towards a buy signal. Given the rapid rise, the price is currently overextended in the short term, suggesting a potential correction to around $21.6 before another attempt to break out. However, if the price drops below $20.8, it could signal trouble for the bullish case.
TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, +0.14% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.37)
*comment/Mar19: The TIPs chart currently shows a bullish configuration, although the 92-96 buy signal is currently off the path. The signal indicated a temporary high and also marked the recent low at $102 as the medium-term bottom. Since then, the price has been moving sideways within a tight range of $105-$108. A breakout from this range will provide clarity on the direction of the next leg.
TLT, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 40 days, -1.04% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to BUY 92.62/-0.32% or lower; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $92.92)
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY (inside 92-96 SELL), OnPath, XXed, 35 days, +10.09% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 31.98/-2.94% or lower; 218-222 on BUY; current $32.95)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
NEW/Sep21: The price action suggests that a correction might be due soon, if it hasn't already begun.
NEW/Oct04: The correction is now fully underway, with an initial target around the $28 mark.
NEW/Oct20: The correction was over after $28 was almost hit. I have no idea where this is going. The geopolitical situation says higher but if the recession hits then it is lower. The SKI constellation is bullish but despite the geopolitical turmoil the recent high is still holding. I am just watching now.
NEW/Nov01: The pattern is shaping up as some kind of a top. $30-31 is support.
NEW/Dec08: 218-222 sold and 92-96 sold as well. Appears like the support has given up so longer-term I expect the support at $21-22 to be tested. I might try a long position at that level.
NEW/Dec16: Since my last update, the price of UCO has been trending sideways within the $25-30 range. If this pattern persists, it's anticipated that a top will be formed soon, with the price subsequently heading towards $25. However, if this scenario does not unfold, it's unclear what may be happening. Nevertheless, I would still anticipate that the expected drop to $21-22, as initially forecasted in December, would be the most probable scenario.
NEW/Mar19: Contrary to expectations, the price has risen and is on the verge of generating a 92-96 buy signal, complementing the existing 35-39 buy signal and turning the structure bullish. Such signals often mark temporary tops. The upcoming correction will determine if this trend will evolve into a bull market or revert to a trading range, with the next target around the $22 area. The SKI structure is promising for a bullish outcome, but only time will tell.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL (inside off path 92-96 BUY), 9 days, -5.32% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to SELL 28.02/+0.83% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.79)
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
NEW/Nov20: I am worried about the Aussie uranium stocks not following the USA counterparts' breakout. I am 50% long.
NEW/Dec14: It appears that Aussie stocks have potentially reached the bottom of the correction. I've added to my position, and now I'm 75% long, with all positions in Aussie stocks (DYL, BOE, BMN, PDN, AGE).
NEW/Jan12: The price fell short of selling the 35-39 index by one day. Instead, it surged strongly to break through the recent high which is typical bull market behaviour. I am happy with my position and letting it run for now. However, the $32 level could be a strong resistance for a while.
NEW/Feb12: The $32 resistance level has proven to be a formidable barrier, suggesting that some form of consolidation or correction may be necessary to reload and recharge. In light of this, I've taken some profits (not all) and am now seeking to re-enter at lower levels. 50% long.
NEW/Feb16: I kept selling into strength throughout the past week to further lock in profits, reducing my trading position to 25% long. I intend to persist with this strategy until I return to my core position.
NEW/Mar01: As I said two weeks ago I sold all my old positions and am now buying back at support (Aussie stocks, BOE, PDN, DYL and BMN). 50% long (excluding core which I do not touch) but I will trade around these positions until I am sure that the bottom has been in place.
NEW/Mar06: I've realized short-term profits and have reduced my position to my core holdings. Now, I'm preparing to begin accumulating again.
NEW/Mar19: Since my last update, I've accumulated 75% in my trading account. Most of these positions were acquired below their 50-day moving average (MAV), and I plan to trade around them as they reach this level on the way up. I remain uncertain whether the bottom will be tested again.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 63 days, -0.82%; run pattern in-progress 1U/2D/-1.16%perday; xxing=off_off_on (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.66)
*comment/Mar19: The recent generation of the 92-96 buy signal has put the USERX chart in a bullish SKI configuration, suggesting a potential bull market. After a rally that followed the buy signal, USERX remains in a strong short-term position. If a consolidation or correction occurs in the next few weeks, there is enough room before the support is hit, with $9.2 serving as a key level. However, it's important to note that USERX has yet to confirm a bull market until the $10.28 resistance is surpassed, warranting caution.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 8 days, -0.85% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > to SELL 6685/-0.85% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $6742)
*comment/Mar15: XGD.AX is currently on a true bull buy signal. However, further upward movement is required to prevent a return to the bear trend.
Generation of the signal has initiated a consolidation phase (as expected), which has been relatively mild thus far (good) but may not be sufficient to maintain the bullish stance. To confirm the bullish trend, a breakout above the $7000 resistance level is necessary, with a target of at least $7500 by the first week of April. However, trader sentiment appears overly optimistic, and gold's COT positioning is nearing overcrowded levels, making such a move less likely. If it happens regardless it will be proof that this signal is for real.
If the market struggles and the consolidation transforms into a correction, support at the $6600 level will be crucial. A failure to hold this level could result in a retest of $6000-6100, delaying the bullish outcome to the second half of the year.
I am 50% long and happy to stay that way if the next move is to the upside. If the $6600 cannot hold I will be reducing my position.
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