I let my SKI site subscription expire (too quiet in recent months). I will keep posting in this space. Anyone who wants to reach me can do so through the comment section on this site or at branko.askovic.ale@gmail.com. Good luck to everyone!
I have created an X account: BMGold @Brankoasko93725. I now post my comments and charts there. If you are interested in exchanging thoughts about markets please join me.
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 64 days, +15.51%; (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $5021)
*Comment/Dec29: The S&P is currently exhibiting a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal marked the beginning of a rally that brought the price close to the old all-time high at $4818. While short-term overbought conditions could potentially lead to a correction, the long-term structure now appears to be bullish. However, at this moment, I'm not inclined to actively pursue the upward trend. Instead, I'm considering reevaluating my position after a potential correction has occurred.
NEW/Jan19: Unfortunately, the correction didn't go deep enough to get me interested in establishing a long position. The price action remained sideways until it touched the 16-20 index back prices, followed by an explosive upward movement, which is characteristic of bull markets. Today, the price closed at a new all-time high. The Commitment of Traders (COT) readings are neutral, and the long-term SKI indices are on buy signals. Thus, everything on this chart points to a continuation of bullishness.
HUI, last signal 35-39 SELL, 17 days, -2.18% (double SELL with 92-96)(also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 207.88/-2.75% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $213.76)
*comment/Jan19: The undesired double sell signal (92-96/35-39) has occurred since my last update. This coincides with the break of the ascending trendline originating from the October low. The SKI constellation has now turned bearish. Unfortunately, this isn't favourable news, despite the overall bullish appearance of the chart. I cannot recommend a buy until the 92-96 index signals a buy again. However, as long as gold remains above the range of $1960-1970 and the HUI maintains its ascending trendline from the 2016 low (around $190), I wouldn't advise selling either.
NEW/Feb12: The 92-96 index is close to buying back. If the buy signal is triggered, it would be of the JPOT variety, but the question remains whether it would be advisable to buy. The SKI structure is not particularly strong; it requires a sharp rally to the $230 level to avoid quickly generating a sell signal. For those who choose to buy, setting the 92-96 sell signal as a stop-loss would be prudent. The positive aspect is that the stop-loss level is rising, limiting the potential loss.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 66 days, +16.91% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $17882)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently displaying a bullish configuration. The recent 92-96 buy signal aligning with the breakthrough of the resistance line enhances its potential impact. An all-time high has been achieved, but in the short term, the price appears to be significantly overextended and possibly in overbought territory.
NEW/Jan19: The bull run persists. The manner in which the price engaged with the 16-20 index back prices suggests more of the same in the future.
NEW/Jan26: SKI-wise, there haven't been any changes compared to my previous comment. In the short term, there is a lag in the performance of NDX compared to SPX, which might indicate the development of a short-term top. However, the fact that speculators have reduced their COT position is not consistent with the formation of a top. The pattern to watch for would be the speculators buying into the rally while NDX lags behind SPX. I am on the sidelines, waiting.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 57 days, +13.18% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > to SELL 1982/-3.03% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $2045)
*comment/Dec29: The chart is currently in a bullish configuration, demonstrating a robust SKI bullish structure. The recent alignment of the 35-39 buy signal with a 92-96 buy signal, coupled with the breakthrough of resistance lines, strengthens its potential impact. Unlike the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq, the Russell is still some distance away from its all-time high. Nevertheless, it has been the best performer among them recently, which could suggest a broadening of the stocks participating in this bull market—a bullish sign in itself. However, in the short term, this rally appears to have advanced rapidly and may have become overextended. A healthy correction might be in order, to restore balance.
New/Jan12: Indeed, a significant correction has occurred since my last comment. There's a high probability that a 16-20 buy signal will be generated tomorrow. In the present setup, this would be an optimal point to establish a support level and, once done, initiate a long position in the Russell.
NEW/Jan19: As expected, the 16-20 buy signal has indicated a low, signalling the potential for a run, at the very least, to recent highs, and possibly even further to around $2150.
NEW/Feb12: The rally over the last two days successfully avoided a 35-39 index sell. This is a characteristic of bull markets. My current target remains at $2150.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 2 days, -0.36% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.17%)
*comment/DEC15: The recent 92-96 bull market has come to an end. Since the 2020 bottom, there have been three significant rising waves, each marked by a true bull 92-96 signal. The last one pushed yields to a new high at 5%, but it eventually reversed, resulting in a loss. This is a sign of the long-term trend reversing. Currently, I anticipate the formation of a bottom shortly. However, I don't expect the subsequent rally to surpass 4.2-4.4%. Beyond this point, I anticipate that the decline will resume. In the long term (months), potential downside targets could be 3.4%, 3.2%, and ultimately 2.8%. By March 2024, yields should be in the 3.2%-3.4% range, and if we reach 2.8%, it might happen towards the end of 2024.
NEW/Jan12: A 16-20 sell signal is likely to be generated tomorrow. This signal could potentially mark the peak of this correction. A bit more time might be needed to confirm the top. Currently, I don't anticipate the rates to surpass 4.2% before the decline resumes.
NEW/Jan26: The 16-20 signal was indeed generated, as expected, but it didn't indicate the high point. The resistance around $4.2-$4.4 remains a significant hurdle to overcome. It appears that more time may be needed for the top to take shape.
NEW/Feb01: It appears that the top has finally been established. The highest point reached was 4.198%, very close to my projected target. If the downtrend has indeed been reignited (as expected), the 3.8% level should offer some support before being potentially broken down. My downside target for the next few weeks is around 3.4%.
NEW/Feb12: What looked like a top back on 01 of Feb is now being tested. A 35-39 buy signal has been generated but it should mark resistance and help to bring the yield down to 4% level to test the support (which I eventually expect to break). If this scenario doesn't materialize and the yield rises over 4.2% then the next resistance level is 4.4% (which I initially marked as the upper boundary of the resistance area).
XAU, last signal 35-39 SELL, 17 days, -2.12% (double SELL with 92-96)(also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 107.47/-2.79% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $110.55)
*comment/Jan19: The undesired double sell signal (92-96/35-39) has occurred since my last update. This coincides with the break of the ascending trendline originating from the October low. The SKI constellation has now turned bearish. Unfortunately, this isn't favourable news, despite the overall bullish appearance of the chart. I cannot recommend a buy until the 92-96 index signals a buy again. However, as long as gold remains above the range of $1960-1970 and the XAU maintains its ascending trendline from the 2016 low (around $100), I wouldn't advise selling either.
NEW/Feb12: The 92-96 index is close to buying back. If the buy signal is triggered, it would be of the JPOT variety, but the question remains whether it would be advisable to buy. The SKI structure is not particularly strong; it requires a sharp rally to the $117.50 level to avoid quickly generating a sell signal. For those who choose to buy, setting the 92-96 sell signal as a stop-loss would be prudent. The positive aspect is that the stop-loss level is rising, limiting the potential loss.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 12 days, -1.57% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.46)
*comment/Dec15: Following today's 92-96 buy signal, the SKI structure for ASA presents a bullish alignment. However, there are some noteworthy issues to consider. In comparison to other gold indices, ASA seems to lack significant short-term momentum. In SKI terms, this is evident as the 35-39 index seems to have more influence than the 92-96 signal at the moment. While the SKI structure is relatively solid, the technical analysis (TA) setup is not particularly favourable. This is primarily due to the way the price interacts with the resistance line, which resembles the formation of a short-term peak. To confirm the 92-96 buy signal, it appears that a 218-222 buy signal will be necessary for the price to close above the trendline, which is currently around $16. This confirmation would strengthen the argument for a sustained bullish move, potentially propelling the price towards the $18.5 target. As long as the spot gold price remains above $1970, such a scenario appears plausible. However, for a more enduring medium-term rally, it's likely that spot gold needs to maintain levels above $2100, serving as a critical catalyst for continued upward movement.
NEW/Dec19: The close today at precisely $16 marks a potential breakout, but it's crucial to see a follow-through to confirm this move. As mentioned earlier, the structure of ASA's SKI configuration appears solid and somewhat distinct from other gold indices, which is an encouraging sign for the sector, especially given ASA's track record of marking significant market turns in recent years. While the 35-39 index has been in charge (on the path), now with the 92-96 on board, everything seems to be aligning for a significant bullish run. The first target is set at $18.5, but the ascent shouldn't necessarily stop there. There's potential for the price to reach $21.5, possibly by March 2024, if this bullish trend has indeed started. However, for these scenarios to become sustainable, the spot price of gold will likely need to surpass $2100 and remain at that level for an extended period.
NEW/Dec29: At present, none of the conditions mentioned earlier for a swift climb to $18.5 and beyond seem to have materialized. There hasn't been a significant follow-through after the $16 level was breached, and the gold price has once again failed around $2070-2080. It appears that a short-term correction may be underway, possibly testing the $14-14.5 range. In the event of the 92-96 index selling during this correction, it would be preferable to avoid seeing the 35-39 sell signal emerge before the 92-96 buy signal returns. The current support zone is approximately between $13.5 and $14, with resistance remaining at $16.
NEW/Jan03: The correction is underway and the 16-20 buy signal has already been generated. Let's assess possible scenarios.
1. If the current decline continues, the next signal to look for is the 92-96 sell signal. If this sell signal marks a low and is followed by a 92-96 buy signal, that buy signal would be a true buy signal, and whether it is followed by a 35-39 sell signal becomes less relevant. To support this scenario, the price should not breach the $14ish level on the downside and then rise above $14.6ish before mid-January. Ultimately, overcoming the $16 level would confirm a bull market.
2. If the fall continues, and the next signal is the 92-96 sell signal without marking a low, and it is followed by a 35-39 sell signal, this would turn the SKI configuration bearish, suggesting further potential decline with a target around $12ish.
3. If the recently executed 16-20 buy signal marks a low and a rally emerges, pushing the price above $16 (the recent top), this would signify the beginning of a bull wave.
A similar configuration exists with all other gold indices, but the setup is a bit tighter. Considering that the ASA chart was the best-performing SKI chart in the gold sector in recent years, I am paying due attention.
NEW/Jan12: Today's robust rally reduces the likelihood of a 92-96 SELL signal becoming the next one to trigger. While still possible, it now requires precise maneuvering, which isn't typical. This makes scenario #3 the most likely to unfold. If Thursday marked the bottom, we may observe a gradual sideways or upward movement throughout the month, and possibly beyond, to reach the $16 mark once again. This could set the stage for a potential move to $18.5 and beyond for the remainder of the year. My current bias leans towards a bullish outlook. However, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 indices at this stage would remain rather bearish, potentially causing a sharp drop to at least $12.
NEW/Jan19: Contrary to my earlier expectations, only scenarios #1 and #2 are now viable. The 92-96 index has sold, and it remains to be seen whether the 35-39 index will hold long enough for the 92-96 index to buy back first and potentially lead the way for a bull market. This kind of precise maneuvering is typically uncommon, but we'll see how it unfolds. Structurally, the chart still appears sound for a potential rally to commence from this level.
NEW/Jan26: As expected, the precise movement required for a true bull signal hasn't materialized. However, after the 35-39 sell signal, the price rose to buy back the 92-96 index, leading to a shift in the SKI structure back to bullish, which aligns better with the TA structure. Considering this, is it possible to suggest a buy at this point? I'd say, yes. The 92-96 signal is marked as XXed, but it's of the JPOT type, which makes it buyable. If one chooses to proceed, it's wise to establish a stop loss at the point of a 92-96 sell signal. For those who prefer confirmation, waiting for two consecutive closes above $16 could be a suitable buy point. In SKI terms, this might coincide with a 35-39 buy signal.
It's worth noting that the current buy signal can easily transition into a true bull signal if, within the next two weeks, the price briefly dips below $14 and then turns back up. In such an event, the 92-96 signal would conclude before being generated again, but one may want to consider selling for safety before re-entering once the renewed buy signal is issued. I wouldn't be surprised if this scenario took place because I have a feeling that there might be one more test of the gold price around $1960.
Regarding other gold indices, while they are in a similar setup, the 92-96 buy signal has yet to be generated. For USERX, which never ended the 92-96 buy signal (which is not JPOT type and therefore not buyable by pure SKI rules) the strategy of holding long positions as long as USERX stays above $9.2 and the gold spot remains above $1960 seems prudent.
Let's see if the ASA signals are going to be the most accurate again.
NEW/Jan30: So far the XXed out 92-96 buy signal worked well the price is still moving inside the well-defined boundaries (since October 2022). $15.5-$16.0 (and falling) on the upper side and $13.5-$14.0 (and rising) on the lower side. One of these will need to be broken for the next significant move to initiate
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, Not XXed(true), 9 days, +17.53% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $50031
*comment/Oct25: BTC broke out of the 6 months trading range ($25K-$32K). The upside target is 45K.
NEW/Dec08: The price has hit the $45,000 target, but I anticipate one more push, likely reaching around $48,000, followed by a correction to test the breakout level at $32,000.
NEW/Jan09: The price has hit the $48K target as stated above. A correction should start soon, probably down to $35K.
NEW/Jan12: The correction has indeed commenced, and it appears that the 35-39 index is likely to sell tomorrow. This could signify the beginning of a phase of declining prices, possibly bottoming out in the range of 35-38K.
NEW/Jan26: The 35-39 index has indeed sold, and the correction dipped as low as $38,512. The question now is whether this marks the end of the correction or if there's more to come. It's reasonable to suggest that some more time needs to pass before we can be certain that the correction has concluded.
NEW/Feb04: The 35-39 index has produced a buy signal, but the SKI structure appears relatively weak. Therefore, I would refrain from suggesting a buy at this moment. However, if the price manages to hold around 42K until the end of February, it could lead to a change in the structure, possibly sparking a new upward trend. My bias is that one more test of the $35-38K support area is more probable than an immediate rise.
NEW/Feb12: I was wrong. An immediate rise was initiated by the 35-39 buy signal.
COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, +1.68% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.19)
NEW/Dec29: COPX is in a bullish configuration. In the broader context, since the 2021 peak, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle with a horizontal resistance zone between $42 and $44, and a rising support level currently at around $35. The presence of both the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals, in addition to the S&P 500 bull market, indicates support for the price to potentially reach the resistance area within the coming 4 weeks ($42-$44). In the short term, it's worth noting that the recent 92-96 buy signal might have marked the commencement of a minor correction.
NEW/Jan09: As expected, the 92-96 buy signal marked the start of a correction. It now appears that the correction might be more substantial than initially anticipated, possibly triggering a 92-96 sell signal. However, my bullish outlook for the next few months remains unchanged as long as the price stays above $35 and the 35-39 index doesn't sell. As long as these conditions are met, the current price fluctuations are viewed as setting the stage for a breakout.
NEW/Jan12: 92-96 index sold indeed. Read my comment above.
NEW/Feb12: The 35-39 index has sold, yet the price remains within the ascending triangle described earlier. Additionally, there is a potential for the 92-96 index to signal a short-term rally back to the upper boundary of the triangle. However, if the price closes below the recent low of $34.46, it should be regarded as a breakdown with an initial target of around $42.
DXY (dollar index), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 4 days, +0.11% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $104.15)
*comment/Dec29: DXY is presently demonstrating a bearish SKI and technical analysis (TA) setup. However, it's important to note that the price is currently positioned just above a long-term support level that dates back to the 2011 low. Given that the current TA indicators are all in a deep oversold territory, it's unlikely that this support will be breached in the short term. Additionally, there's a possibility of a short-term dollar rally, potentially targeting the $105-106 range. As part of my strategy, I may consider taking a short position in gold during this dollar rally, which can also serve as a hedge against my long gold positions.
NEW/Jan09: So far, the correction rally has reached $103.1. I believe there's more upside potential, at least to $104 and possibly beyond, as I mentioned previously.
NEW/Jan26: A new high for the correction rally has been achieved, $103.82. This produced a 35-39 buy signal but it is xxed and therefore should represent a resistance.
NEW/Feb02: The 35-39 index did, in fact, pose strong resistance. Now, let's observe if the $101 support level will be tested again.
New/Feb07: Eventually that 35-39 index resistance broke and a 35-39 buy signal was generated. This is potentially a bullish development but it still needs confirmation by a close above $105. If $105 resistance breaks a rise to $107 should be expected.
GDX, last signal 35-39 SELL, 17 days, -1.44% (double SELL with 92-96) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.29)
*comment/Jan19: The undesired double sell signal (92-96/35-39) has occurred since my last update. This coincides with the break of the ascending trendline originating from the October low. The SKI constellation has now turned bearish. Unfortunately, this isn't favourable news, despite the overall bullish appearance of the chart. I cannot recommend a buy until the 92-96 index signals a buy again. As long as gold remains above the range of $1960-1970 and the GDX maintains its ascending trendline from the 2016 low (around $27), I wouldn't advise selling either.
NEW/Feb12: The 92-96 index is close to buying back. If the buy signal is triggered, it would be of the JPOT variety, but the question remains whether it would be advisable to buy. The SKI structure is not particularly strong; it requires a sharp rally to the $29 level to avoid quickly generating a sell signal. For those who choose to buy, setting the 92-96 sell signal as a stop-loss would be prudent. The positive aspect is that the stop-loss level is rising, limiting the potential loss.
*comment/Jan19: The undesired double sell signal (92-96/35-39) has occurred since my last update. This coincides with the break of the ascending trendline originating from the October low. The SKI constellation has now turned bearish. Unfortunately, this isn't favourable news, despite the overall bullish appearance of the chart. I cannot recommend a buy until the 92-96 index signals a buy again. As long as gold remains above the range of $1960-1970 and the XAU maintains its ascending trendline from the 2016 low (around $29), I wouldn't advise selling either.
NEW/Feb12: The 92-96 index has generated a true bull buy signal. Its occurrence ahead of the entire gold complex, coupled with gold remaining above $2000 for an extended period, and other indices in the sector nearing 92-96 buy signals, could serve as an early indication that the bull market in gold is on the verge of commencing (juniors are first to move at the beginning of a gold bull).
The SKI structure of the signal is solid because, unlike other gold indices, it doesn't require a rapid rise to maintain its integrity. For those who choose to buy, setting the 92-96 sell signal as a stop-loss would be advisable.
GLD, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 77 days, +2.26% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 187.37/+0.14% or higher; 35-39 on BUY > to NOT SELL 188.11/+0.53% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $187.11)
*comment/Oct20: GLD flipped to a bullish constellation with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades but it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active (218-222/439-443/660-664).
The SKI structure of today's double buy signal is sound but there are caveats. A 16-20 sell signal came in between the 35-39 buy and the 92-96 buy which somewhat diminishes the strength of the signal. The stop on this 92-96 buy signal is falling for the next two weeks and if the price falls back below $181 (former resistance) there is a danger that the signal will end quickly. After about two weeks from today, the 16-20 index back prices will rise above the 92-96 index back prices and provide some sort of 'protection'.
After a strong move like the one seen in the past two weeks, which can be categorized as an impulse wave, it is often the case that we get a quick correction to sell/buy the 92-96 index to morphe the signal into a true bull signal while scaring everyone out. I am not predicting that but if it happens the key is to generate a new 92-96 buy before the 35-39 index sells. The key seems to be not to fall under $181 ($1960 spot), and if we do then not for more than a couple of days.
NEW/Nov10: The failure to sustain the $181 ($1960 spot) level is concerning. The immediate target shifts to $175, and if it fails to hold, it suggests a possible breakdown in gold prices. In such a scenario, I am prepared to liquidate all my trading positions.
NEW/Nov16: The initial correction following the 92-96 buy signal appears to be a classic test of the breakout so far. The uptrend line is holding at $175 ($1920 spot), as is the major resistance/support level at $181 ($1960 spot). While we're not completely in the clear yet, the situation is increasingly looking more robust with each passing day. However, the issue is the performance of gold stocks. Their relative weakness compared to the metal itself needs to stop soon for a more cohesive bullish picture.
NEW/Nov30: The test of breakout proved successful, leading to a sustained rally. The 92-96 buy signal has held, lending a solid foundation to the SKI structure. Moving forward, the $180 ($2000 spot) price level should act as support. In my view, a breakthrough above $191 ($2070 spot) could potentially trigger a short squeeze, which in turn might propel gold price toward $2200 and possibly higher.
NEW/Dec01: We've reached $191 ($2070 spot). This level could either represent a peak or, alternatively, we might see a gap up on Monday, potentially leading to a rally towards $2200. While daily indicators signal an overbought condition, the weekly indicators do not reflect the same.
In the Commitments of Traders (COTs) reports, commercials are at maximum short positions, and large speculators are at maximum long, but the positions for small speculators remain neutral. Given this setup, a push towards $2100 might be necessary before any correction occurs, to consolidate the gains we've recently seen. My bias is bullish short-term but medium term we need some cooling off or this rally might become too fast too soon.
NEW/Dec08: A cooling-off phase, mentioned above, is indeed occurring, and the key question is how deep this correction will go. According to the SKI structure, as long as the 92-96 level remains intact, the correction can persist. In numerical terms, this translates to around $176 (approximately $1900 in spot price) under the condition that the decline does not escalate into a full-fledged crash. A more favourable scenario would be if the breakout level becomes a supportive floor at $181 (around $1960 in spot price). In this case, the correction would resemble a test of the breakout level from above.
NEW/Dec29: The price of gold is currently maintaining its position above the $181 level ($1960 spot). However, there appears to be a diminishing momentum, and the likelihood of a break above $2100 in the short term seems low. As I previously mentioned, as long as the SKI 92-96 buy signal is in control, there's no immediate concern for the bullish scenario. Nevertheless, in the short term, it appears that more consolidation or correction may be necessary before the $2100 area can be convincingly breached.
NEW/Feb01: The 35-39 index has generated a buy signal inside an ongoing 92-96 buy signal. The pressure is tilted towards the upside, suggesting a new attempt to break through the formidable resistance levels which are situated between $2060 and $2100 (gold spot). Breaking such strong resistance would likely require a triggering event. A deteriorating situation in the Middle East or a disappointing NFPR report on Friday might provide the necessary catalyst. However, if this attempt falls short, the support level to watch is around $1960, and it's expected to be tested in that case.
SLV, last signal 92-96, 6 days, +1.42% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.76)
*comment/Jan09: The 92-96 buy signal sold, and the 35-39 will do the same in the next few days. Since these signals are happening inside a bigger chart pattern that has taken the shape of a bullish contracting triangle dating back to the top of 2020, I am not inclined to interpret them as overly bearish long-term. However, in the short term, they suggest that the momentum is to the downside, and a visit to the lower boundary of the contracting triangle is probable ($19.5 - $20ish). There is a plethora of possible scenarios that can transpire during the next few weeks, but none of them seem too important unless the major resistance/support lines are breached. That means $19 ($21 spot) on the downside and $23 ($25 spot) on the upside.
New/Jan12: The 35-39 index has indeed sold, in line with my previous comment. If Thursday marked a low, a rise above $21.5 in the coming weeks could generate a 92-96 buy signal which might trigger a rally back to the upper boundary of the current trading range at $23 and even a possible breakout. Currently, my bias is leaning towards a bullish outlook. Nevertheless, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 indices at this stage would still be bearish, potentially leading to a drop to at least $19.5.
NEW/Feb01: The scenario described above, where the 92-96 buying signals a potential bull market, has indeed come to pass. Structurally, the signal does exhibit some weaknesses (XXed, etc.) but it's occurring within the context of the bullish contracting triangle dating back to the top of 2020. To address these issues and establish a foundation for a potential rally back to the upper boundary of the triangle, a small further rise above $21.5 is necessary. Alternatively, another possible path involves a minor drop to trigger the sell signal within the 92-96 index, followed by a rally to buy it back for a true bull buy signal. The critical support level to watch to sustain these scenarios is at $20.5.
NEW/Feb12: The scenario described above is currently unfolding. The 92-96 index has sold, turning off all xxing in the process, and is now breaking back to buy for a true bull buy signal. This development is occurring around the critical level of $20.5, adding further significance to the situation. Let's see how it evolves.
TIP, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.37)
*comment/Dec14: The target range of $107-$108 has indeed been achieved. Today's 92-96 buy signal is likely indicating a temporary high, but it's important to note that the generation of this signal probably marked the recent low at $102 as the bottom. Consequently, the SKI structure has turned bullish, suggesting a shift in market sentiment and potential for further upward movement.
New/Jan12: It appears that the correction has concluded. The next target on the upside is $110-$112. Probably by mid-March.
New/Jan26: Contrary to my expectation, the correction has persisted. The gap from December 14th has been filled. It's plausible to anticipate that the correction might continue until the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
NEW/Feb01: It's clear that the FOMC meeting did indeed trigger the rally, and this rally now appears to have concluded the correction phase.
NEW/Feb07: The NFPR report on Friday negated all FOMC meeting gains. The price action is back to sideways. A potential 35-39 sell signal in a few days might be bearish.
TLT, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 15 days, +0.06% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $93.96)
NEW/Jan10: Indeed, the 92-96 buy signal did mark the high, and the ongoing correction is now approaching the point where a 16-20 buy signal is likely to be generated. The setup suggests that the 16-20 buy signal might be followed by a 92-96 sell-buy signal sequence, potentially indicating the conclusion of the correction and the start of a bull market. This would align with the equities bull market and the potential bull market in precious metals therefore making it worth closely monitoring.
*comment/Jan24: The 92-96 signalled a sell signal so let's see if it can buy back for a potential true bull market.
NEW/Feb01: The 92-96 index has bought, signaling the potential for a true bull market. While the price action aligns with this bullish setup, two consecutive closes above 100.53 will serve as confirmation. This signal corroborates the bullish setup in gold and the bearish setup in 10yy.
NEW/Feb07: The 92-96 buy signal is not at risk of selling, but the lack of confirmation is concerning. If the 35-39 index were to sell, there is a strong likelihood that we would observe a drop to the $90-92 range.
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY (inside 92-96 SELL), OnPath, XXed, 10 days, -2.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.27)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
NEW/Sep21: The price action suggests that a correction might be due soon, if it hasn't already begun.
NEW/Oct04: The correction is now fully underway, with an initial target around the $28 mark.
NEW/Oct20: The correction was over after $28 was almost hit. I have no idea where this is going. The geopolitical situation says higher but if the recession hits then it is lower. The SKI constellation is bullish but despite the geopolitical turmoil the recent high is still holding. I am just watching now.
NEW/Nov01: The pattern is shaping up as some kind of a top. $30-31 is support.
NEW/Dec08: 218-222 sold and 92-96 sold as well. Appears like the support has given up so longer-term I expect the support at $21-22 to be tested. I might try a long position at that level.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true)(while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 62 days, +7.55% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.76)
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
NEW/Nov20: I am worried about the Aussie uranium stocks not following the USA counterparts' breakout. I am 50% long.
NEW/Dec14: It appears that Aussie stocks have potentially reached the bottom of the correction. I've added to my position, and now I'm 75% long, with all positions in Aussie stocks (DYL, BOE, BMN, PDN, AGE).
NEW/Jan12: The price fell short of selling the 35-39 index by one day. Instead, it surged strongly to break through the recent high which is typical bull market behaviour. I am happy with my position and letting it run for now. However, the $32 level could be a strong resistance for a while.
NEW/Feb12: The $32 resistance level has proven to be a formidable barrier, suggesting that some form of consolidation or correction may be necessary to reload and recharge. In light of this, I've taken some profits (not all) and am now seeking to re-enter at lower levels. 50% long.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 38 days, -6.67%; run pattern in-progress 3D/1U/+0.33%perday; xxing=off_off_on (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.09)
*comment/Dec15: The generation of today's 92-96 buy signal has placed the SKI configuration of the USERX index in a bullish position, indicating a solid fo undation for potential upward movement. Nevertheless, several significant issues need consideration. The technical analysis (TA) setup is not favourable due to a major resistance level dating back to the breakdown in 2011, which is located at $10.28. In the short term, the likelihood of surpassing this resistance may not be very high, especially considering the recent rejection of the gold price at $2150. However, in the long term, if the spot gold price can maintain its position above $1970 and the USERX price can stay above $9.2, it's not unreasonable to expect USERX to reach the $11-$11.5 range by March 2024. Currently, the support level for USERX stands at around $9.2 and is on the rise. If this level is breached, a potential downside target could be around $8.2 or possibly lower.
NEW/Dec29: The price has once again failed at the $10.28 resistance level, and keeps range trading between $9.2 and $10.28. As long as the 92-96 buy signal remains intact, the bullish case remains strong. In the short term, it seems that a correction may be necessary to alleviate overbought conditions. However, in the medium term, the overall pressure appears to be on the upside.
NEW/Jan03:The correction is ongoing, with the price moving towards a 16-20 buy signal. If this signal is generated, the same scenarios that apply to the ASA chart will also apply here. In any case, support is around $9.2, and resistance is at $10.28. I am waiting to see which way the price will break, as this will determine the next intermediate movement.
NEW/Jan09: The correction is nearing the 16-20 index buy signal. Ideally, after generating the 16-20 buy signal, the decline will extend to trigger the 92-96 index sell signal without activating the 35-39 index sell signal. If the price then reverses, a minor rally could generate a valid 92-96 buy signal. This might rekindle the possibility of eventually breaking through the crucial $10.28 level, potentially evolving into a bull market later this year. The likelihood of this scenario is reasonable, as long as the gold price remains above $1970, but it would gain momentum if gold can consistently surpass $2100.
If the 35-39 index sell signal is generated, the true bull scenario will be invalidated. However, there may be bullish signals later in the year if the price can hold above the October low ($8.22). In any case, the key short-term levels to monitor are support at $9.2 and resistance at $10.28.
NEW/Jan12: Today's strong rally decreases the likelihood of a 92-96 SELL signal being the next one to trigger. While still possible, it now demands precise maneuvering, which isn't common. If Thursday marked the bottom, we might observe a gradual sideways or upward movement throughout the month, and possibly beyond, aiming to reach the $10.28 mark once more. This could potentially set the stage for a breakout and a move to $11.5 and beyond for the remainder of the year. Currently, my bias leans towards a bullish outlook. However, selling both the 92-96 and 35-39 indices and breaching the $9.2 support at this stage would remain bearish, potentially causing a drop to at least $8.8, and possibly even lower.
NEW/Jan19: It appears that the strong rally on January 12th was a one-day event, followed by a sudden drop in price. Consequently, the potential for a 92-96 sell/buy sequence has become less likely, though it's not ruled out entirely. Currently, the most probable next signal is a 35-39 sell, which could then set the stage for a period of weakness and possibly result in a double sell signal if the 92-96 index sells. Alternatively, if a low forms around the $9.2 support level, we could see a rally back toward the crucial $10.28 resistance level. As of now, nothing crucial has been broken (USERX above $9.2, gold above $1970, ASA above $14.5), so it's advisable to exercise patience and monitor the situation.
NEW/Jan26: 35-39 index sold but the 92-96 buy signal is still holding along with $9.2 USERX support and gold spot $1960 support. This 92-96 buy signal from December was not buyable by the SKI rules, however, the strategy of holding long positions (if any) as long as USERX stays above $9.2 and the gold spot remains above $1960 seems prudent to me.
NEW/Feb09: With the loss of the $9.2 level, the focus now shifts to $8.6, which is in the crosshairs. Gold seems poised to experience one more dip below $2000. In such a scenario, it's plausible that the USERX price may test the lows seen in November.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, last signal 92-96 SELL, 5 days, -1.3% (after 92-96 buy so XXing is now OFF) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > to NOT BUY 6387/-0.54% or lower; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $6422)
*comment/Jan19: Both the 92-96 and 35-39 indices have sold, resulting in a double sell signal. From a technical analysis perspective, there hasn't been any significant structural damage yet because the long-term support around $6500-$6600 is holding. Additionally, the price of gold, both in USD and AUD terms, is also holding. Given these conditions, it seems prudent to refrain from taking any immediate action. If any action is considered, it may lean more towards buying, particularly if and when the 92-96 index signals a buy.
NEW/Feb01: Since my last post, the 92-96 index has bought and sold, therefore clearing the XXing. The next signal on the path is likely to be a 92-96 true buy signal. As of now (1h after opening in Australia, 2end Feb), XGD is up by +2.5%, surpassing the +0.96% required for the buy signal. I've added to my holdings at the open and are now 75% long. Stop loss two closes below $6400.
NEW/Feb07: The 92-96 buy signal generated on February 2nd ended the following day, but the overall setup remains unchanged. The most probable next signal is still a 92-96 true buy. The longer it takes for this signal to be generated, the less robust the SKI structure of this signal will become, making it desirable to obtain it as soon as possible. Furthermore, it would be highly preferable to generate this signal above $6400. I am maintaining my 75% position but will sell off my recently acquired 25% if the signal is not generated promptly or if we lose $6400. Additionally, I will consider adding back on the approach to $6200, but if the $6200 level appears weak, I will liquidate all my positions.
NEW/Feb09: The 92-96 buy signal is taking time to generate, with the index behaving more like resistance. While the $6400 level is still holding, the likelihood of generating the buy signal today or tomorrow is not high. Even if it eventually materializes, the probability of selling quickly is elevated due to the unsound structure.
Therefore, I've decided to dispose of the 25% I acquired a week ago and await a better opportunity. This opportunity might arise if the price declines further towards $6100-$6200, where I'll likely begin repurchasing. However, if this particular support appears weak, I may opt to do the opposite and sell everything.
NEW/Feb12: At the time of writing this on Tuesday, the 13th, XGD.AX is up 1.8% (2 hours before the close), indicating that the 92-96 index is likely buying back today for a true bull signal. It seems I may have sold at the bottom, but that's acceptable. Currently, I am still 50% long. I won't buy back today but will instead wait for a follow-through tomorrow before making a decision.
No comments:
Post a Comment