SandP 500, 16-20 crossed to SELL (after 92-96 sell); (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > to BUY 4378/+0.01% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $4378)
*Comment/Oct25: SandP is in a bearish configuration. The bullish momentum indicated by the previous SKI setup has ended. The 92-96 index sold, the $4200 support gave way, and the 36-month support is similarly threatened. I initiated a short position at $4240. The current stop is a close above $4320.
NEW/Nov03: My stop has been hit, I'm out of the short position. I am looking for a spot to go short again but a closing price above $4450 will deter me from doing so.
HUI, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, +0.34% (after a double sell with 16-20) (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 229.23/+4.76% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $218.81)
*comment/Nov01: The HUI index is currently in a bearish configuration. It was once again repelled by the pivotal $230 resistance level, and the unwelcome double sell signal 16-20/35-39 has emerged. While there was a brief reprieve when the 35-39 index bought back, it has rapidly sold once more today. This trend is concerning, especially as gold is poised for a breakout and equities are weakening. I've been anticipating a divergence between the stock market and gold stocks for three years, but the present movement isn't promising. For any bullish outlooks to remain viable, the correction shouldn't dip below the $205-210 range.
NEW/Nov03: The lowest point of the correction currently stands at $213.15, aligning with a potential bullish outcome. Yet, for confirmation of this trend, a breakthrough above the $230 mark is necessary.
$NDX - Nasdaq, 92-96 BUY executed today(also, 16-20 crossed to SELL > to BUY 14995/-1.97 or lower; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $15296)
*comment/Nov01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. Everything is lined up in a bearish order except the 218-222 index. I took a short position at the opening in Asia on Monday 23d Oct (on double sell signal). My stop-loss is set for any close above $15023. Side note, AAPL exhibited a pristine triple-sell signal at the close of 20th Oct session and TSLA is on a double-sell signal (35-39/92-96).
NEW/Nov03: My stop has been hit, I'm out of the short position. I am looking for a spot to go short again but a closing price above $15250 will deter me from doing so.
$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 92-96 SELL, 24 days, +0.09% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to SELL 1773/+2.34% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $1733)
*comment/Oct04: The Russell chart displays a bearish configuration. The triple buy signal from July 2023 has not held, marking a bearish turn. More concerning is the fact that the end of this triple buy signal aligned today with a 92-96 sell signal and a breach of technical support. While the triggering of the 92-96 sell signal could indicate a temporary low, subsequent rallies are likely to be selling opportunities.
NEW/Oct20: I should have shorted that rise after the 92-96 sell signal but I didn't. I was waiting for a 16-20 sell which never came. I am pretty sure there will be another opportunity in the upcoming weeks.
NEW/Nov03: I am looking for a spot to go short again.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 72 days, +15.17% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4.57)
*comment/Nov01: The 10-year yield (10yy) is in a bull market. It appears a short-term correction has been initiated, potentially touching or breaking the 16-20 and 35-39 index levels (4.4-4.6%). Nonetheless, the objective for this move remains roughly 5.3%.
NEW/Nov03: The price entered my correction target area. The support should kick in soon otherwise we have seen the top. My upside target is still 5.3%.
XAU, last signal 35-39 SELL (double sell with 16-20), 11 days, -2.93% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $112.33)
*comment/Nov01: The XAU index is in a bearish configuration. The important resistance level at $120 has again rejected the XAU price rise and the unwanted double sell signal 16-20/35-39 has transpired. The correction shouldn't go lower than $105-110 in order to preserve bullish scenarios.
NEW/Nov03: The lowest point of the correction currently stands at $109.08, aligning with a potential bullish outcome. Yet, for confirmation of this trend, a breakthrough above the $120 mark is necessary.
ASA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 10 days, -0.66% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.47)
*comment/Aug04: ASA currently presents a bearish configuration. Should prices decline further, they would drop out of a crucial rising channel that they've only recently managed to reclaim(around the $13.5 mark). Exiting this upward trend could bear negative implications, which becomes even more significant given recent shifts in the equity markets. While there's potential for a bullish rebound if the upcoming 16-20 buy signal marks the bottom and is succeeded by a 35-39 buy signal, current indicators don't hint at the likelihood of such a scenario unfolding.
NEW/Nov02: ASA is the only gold index declining today, that is not a good sign. Such action indicates that the most probable next signal will be a 16-20 buy, which could take the price down to around the last low of approximately $12.50. From there, we'll have to assess the situation further.
NEW/Nov03: Friday's surge shifted the price trajectory, distancing it from an anticipated 16-20 buy signal (that could have suggested more bearishness). Simultaneously, the break through the existing bearish descending channel hints at an impending 35-39 buy signal, potentially preceding a 16-20 buy. This shift could be signalling the formation of a market bottom. For this potential trend reversal to be confirmed, however, the price needs to break the $15.5 resistance barrier. Should today's session exhibit a continuation of Friday's momentum, I will consider this a start of a move towards that $15.5 target.
NEW/Nov07: The anticipated follow-through from Friday's movement did not occur. The price is once again faltering at the important 50-day moving average. It seems that $12.5 has re-emerged as the target. Evidently, it's not yet time for gold to ascend.
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 42 days, +34.43% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $35434
*comment/Oct25: BTC broke out of the 6 months trading range ($25K-$32K). The upside target is 45K.
COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 92-96 SELL, 15 days, -4.84% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.82)
*comment/Nov01: COPX is currently in a bearish constellation. Having failed to maintain support at the $34 level, a swift recovery is necessary to stave off additional decline. Should this fail, we might see it target the $28-29 range.
DXY (dollar index), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed (double buy with 92-96), 61 days, +2.27% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 105.51)
*comment/Sep01: DXY is currently in a bullish constellation, with the price broken out of the downtrend line that emanates from the September 2022 top. The breakout has been marked by xxed double buy signal 35-39/92-96 with the path of trades on the 35-39 index. Having said that the signal still needs a confirmation by rising over the $104.7 resistance level. If successful it seems that $105.39 is the first target, then $107.18.
NEW/Oct02: We are nearing the second target. If this aligns with a 218-222 buy signal, it will either mark a peak or an acceleration point. My inclination is towards a peak, but we'll see.
NEW/Oct09: 218-222 buy signal was generated and it marked a top so far. I have been short DXY since the close of Friday's session. The stop loss is Friday's intraday top.
NEW/Oct13: After marking the top with its 218-222 buy signal, the DXY underwent a sell-off and generated a 218-222 sell signal and is now on the brink of buying it back. Although the current action appears bullish, a breakthrough beyond the recent high is essential for validation. I am still short (by using USD/CHF pair).
NEW/Oct20: The 218-222 index generated a buy signal as was anticipated above but as I said before, although the current action appears bullish, a breakthrough beyond the recent high ($106.79 minimum but 107.35 better) is essential for validation. I am still short by holding a long CHF/USD position. Bough $1.0991, moved stop to $1.1103 now.
NEW/Oct25: I took the profit on my short position.
NEw/Nov03: The 16-20 index initially sold but then quickly reversed to a buy, indicating significant resistance around the previously mentioned $107.35 level. Meanwhile, the 35-39 index is moving towards a sell signal. If the 35-39 does end up selling, it might imply that the recent peak was indeed the top. In this case, most probably the yields topped as well.
GDX, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, +1.17% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 29.73/+3.99% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 BUY executed today > breaking to SELL; current $28.59)
*comment/Nov01: GDX is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index has sold, alongside the 16-20 and the 218-222. This isn't an encouraging sign. For bullish prospects to remain viable, the correction shouldn't dip below $27. There's potential for a bullish rebound if the upcoming 16-20 buy signal marks the bottom and is then succeeded by a 35-39 buy signal.
NEW/Nov03: Friday's strong increase in price distanced it from a potential 16-20 buy signal, which would have indicated bearishness. Conversely, an upcoming 35-39 buy signal could be a bullish indicator and may signify that the recent low is the long-term bottom. In this scenario, the first target for an upward move would be around the $32 mark.
NEW/Nov07: The expected continuation of Friday's momentum didn't take place. Prices are struggling once again at the significant 50-day moving average, pointing to $27 as the renewed downside target. The timing for a rise in gold prices doesn't seem right yet. The outlook could shift to a more positive stance if the 16-20 buy signal marks a low, followed by a 35-39 buy signal on an upward trend.
GDXJ, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, -0.75% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 35.71/+3.66% or higher; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $34.45)
*comment/Nov01: GDXJ is in a bearish configuration. Notably, unlike other gold indices, the GDXJ hasn't triggered the 35-39 index buy, which should have served as a caution since GDXJ is typically a leading indicator. Two prominent bullish scenarios are in play:
- -An immediate ascent to trigger the 35-39 buy, followed by the 92-96 buy.
- -A week-long sideways movement to initiate the 16-20 buy, subsequently followed by an uptrend to activate the 35-39 buy, creating a double buy scenario.
A sustained decline without activating the 35-39 buy would be bearish. Presently, the low is anchored at $32.98. The potential 16-20 buy could coincide with revisiting this low, hinting at a potential double bottom.
NEW/Nov03: Friday's significant price surge suggests that the first scenario outlined earlier is the most likely (35-39 buy). This could signal bullishness and potentially mark the recent low as a long-term bottom. If this is the case, the initial target for an upward trend is set around the $37 level.
GLD, on 92-96, OnPath, XXed, 12 days, -0.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $182.59)
*comment/Oct20: GLD flipped to a bullish constellation with a double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. The 92-96 index is on the path of trades but it is XXed. The long-term triple buy signal initiated in March remains active (218-222/439-443/660-664).
The SKI structure of today's double buy signal is sound but there are caveats. A 16-20 sell signal came in between the 35-39 buy and the 92-96 buy which somewhat diminishes the strength of the signal. The stop on this 92-96 buy signal is falling for the next two weeks and if the price falls back below $181 (former resistance) there is a danger that the signal will end quickly. After about two weeks from today, the 16-20 index back prices will rise above the 92-96 index back prices and provide some sort of 'protection'.
After a strong move like the one seen in the past two weeks, which can be categorized as an impulse wave, it is often the case that we get a quick correction to sell/buy the 92-96 index to morphe the signal into a true bull signal while scaring everyone out. I am not predicting that but if it happens the key is to generate a new 92-96 buy before the 35-39 index sells. The key seems to be not to fall under $181 ($1960 spot), and if we do then not for more than a couple of days.
SLV, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 2 days, -1.66% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 21.3/+2.75% or higher; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $20.73)
*comment/Aug14: The SLV chart is in a bearish configuration. Both 92-96 and 35-39 indices sold, yet the price hasn't exited the $21-24 trading range since its May peak. It's now nearing the $21 support. If the weakness persists, targets are roughly $19.5-20.0 ($21.5-22 spot) followed by $18.5 ($19.89 spot). However, a buy signal from the 35-39 index could indicate a possible retest of resistance at $24 ($26 spot).
NEW/Aug25: The 35-39 buy signal aligned with the bottom at $20.55, which closely matches my target. The sustainability of this rally is now the main question. The 16-20 is poised to sell shortly. If it's followed by a 35-39 sell, it could spell trouble for those in long positions, especially if the price falls below $22 again. Rising over $23.5 during the next 4 weeks would be bullish.
NEW/Aug30: The 16-20 has sold, confirming expectations. We're now in a double-sell scenario. To counteract this, the price must swiftly surpass approximately $23 (triggering a 92-96 buy).
NEW/Sep07: The 35-39 index has triggered its sell signal, resulting in a 16-20/35-39 double sell scenario. I'd like to see a further descent to $20.5 or even lower to shake off the remaining bulls. The price maintains staying above the recent low, even amidst the strengthening dollar index. If this trend continues, I plan to enter a long position on the forthcoming 16-20 or 35-39 buy signal, depending on which one materializes first.
NEW/Sep19: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal, prompting me to establish a long position. I've set the stop loss at a close below $20.45.
NEW/Sep21:Continued price strength, similar to today's, will result in a double buy signal from the 35-39 index, or even potentially a triple buy, with a 92-96 buy signal following a week later.
NEW/Oct02: I was stopped out of my long position on Friday. The target to end this fall is around $18.5.
NEW/Oct09: So far, the lowest point reached was $18.98. The trend remains downward but it seems that a bottom has been reached. I can't shift to a predominantly bullish viewpoint beyond the short term unless the resistance ($21.5/35-39 index buy) is surpassed.
NEW/Nov03: The 92-96 generated a buy signal so officially silver is in a bull market but the structure of this buy signal is not great and the signal will end quickly if the price fails to rally toward 22.9ish during the next two weeks.
TIP, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, +1.41% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $104.25)
*comment/Nov01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. So far, the lowest point reached was $101.74. The trend remains downward but it seems that a bottom has been reached. I can't shift to a predominantly bullish viewpoint beyond the short term unless the resistance ($106/35-39 index buy) is surpassed.
TLT, 16-20 SELL executed today (while on double SELL with 35-39/92-96) (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $88.06)
UCO (crude oil ETF), 16-20 crossed to BUY (also, 16-20 on BUY > to SELL 34.39/+15.64% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.74)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
NEW/Sep21: The price action suggests that a correction might be due soon, if it hasn't already begun.
NEW/Oct04: The correction is now fully underway, with an initial target around the $28 mark.
NEW/Oct20: The correction was over after $28 was almost hit. I have no idea where this is going. The geopolitical situation says higher but if the recession hits then it is lower. The SKI constellation is bullish but despite the geopolitical turmoil the recent high is still holding. I am just watching now.
NEW/Nov01: The pattern is shaping up as some kind of a top. $30-31 is support.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, -1.51% (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $26.67)
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
USERX, last signal 16-20 SELL; 11 days, -0.46%; run pattern in-progress 2U/2D/-1.18%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.74)
*comment/Nov01: The USERX is in a bearish configuration. The price has dropped out of a crucial rising channel that it has only recently managed to reclaim ($8.8). This exit from the upward channel has bearish implications, which shouldn't be ignored especially with the recent development in the equity markets. The best scenario is still for the price to start rising now until a 35-39 buy signal before any other signal but that is becoming increasingly improbable. The other bullish scenario is for the price to move sideways/down for a while to buy the 16-20 and then start a rise to buy the 35-39 index for a double buy. In short a 35-39 buy signal is necessary for a bullish case. Protracted weakness will challenge the recent low and probably target $7.25-7.5 for a possible low.
NEW/Nov03: The closing above the critical $8.8 mark has repositioned the price within the long-term ascending channel, suggesting a bullish trend. To validate this trend, the price needs to either sustain around this level or climb slightly higher, which will trigger a 35-39 buy signal. Given the leading indicators from the ASA chart and the strength of XGD.AX, it appears likely that the 35-39 buy signal will materialize, potentially steering the market towards the $10.28 level. This level is key for kick-starting a more substantial bull market.
NEW/Nov07: The expected continuation of Friday's momentum didn't take place. Prices are struggling once again at the significant 50-day moving average and critical $8.8 level. In case the price fall exceeds the recent 8.54 low I would expect $8.2 to be the renewed downside target (then $7.5). The outlook could shift to a more positive stance if the 16-20 buy signal marks a low, followed by a 35-39 buy signal for a double buy and a possible low.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 92-96 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 2 days, -0.05% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $6879)
*comment/Nov01: After a double sell signal from the 16-20/35-39 indices, the price began to rise, triggering the 92-96 index buy. However, this was quickly followed by a sell. If this marks the peak, the outlook isn't promising. Yet, if the price manages to stay above $6700, a genuine bullish 92-96 signal could emerge. If it fails to do so, a double-sell signal will be activated. Still, as long as the price remains above $6400, a myriad of both bullish and bearish scenarios remain possible. We'll have to observe how it unfolds. Currently, I'm 30% long.
NEW/Nov03: A genuine 92-96 true bull buy signal has been activated, reinforcing the leadership role of Australian stocks in the gold market and affirming the breakout from the descending channel that started in June. The SKI structure supporting this signal is robust, though there's a caveat: a short-term increase in future back prices over the next three weeks might result in a sell/buy sequence before a stable 92-96 structure emerges.
Therefore, for those acting on today's signal, it would be prudent to set a stop loss at a close below $6671 (Thursday's low), rather than waiting for a 92-96 sell signal. This approach offers a more conservative risk management strategy in response to the potential volatility indicated by the SKI structure.
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