SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 174 days, +5.01% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4263)
*Comment/Jun13: SandP is in a true bull configuration. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an existing 92-96 true bull signal. The bullishness has been confirmed with the price rising over $4200. The 36-month support held so technically everything is bullish.
NEW/Sep14: Based on today's price action and in line with the true bull signal, I have decided to stop attempting to pinpoint the peak of this market (which I shouldn't be doing in the first place). Despite the bearish retail sales and PPI data ( suggesting the possibility of the Fed raising) the S&P surged anyway. The market is just too bullish. Currently, I maintain a long position on the S&P as a hedge to my short NDX position, and I plan to close it if the NDX reaches the stop-loss level.
NEW/Sep15: Unlike yesterday, the market has abruptly chosen to respond bearishly to the bearish news, providing the move I've been waiting for. I closed my SPX long position (hedge) therefore letting my NDX short run free.
NEW/Sep21: I think the top has been confirmed. The correction target is $4150-4200 area. Then we will see.
HUI, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed, 7 days, -7.06% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $199.12)
*comment/Aug03: The HUI index is in a bearish configuration, with the only upside being that the price remains above the supportive rising trendline dating back to the low of September 2022. To maintain this supportive trendline, the price needs to stay above the $220 mark. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's 92-96 sell signal indicates a low. In the shorter timeframe, the HUI is following a bearish descending channel since the peak in May 2023. This descending channel's lower boundary approximates to around $210, which is therefore a presumed target for the current move.
NEW/Aug15: HUI price is targeting around $210, but a dip to approximately $205 is also possible.
NEW/Aug23: The low currently stands at $112.67, nearly meeting my target. A bounce has started, however, I'm not fully convinced of its sustainability. I'm looking for a follow-through and the price's capacity to remain above $230.
NEW/Aug31: The 16-20 index has sold, with the rally halted precisely at the $230 mark. So far the action is bearish at this important level.
NEW/Sep07: The 16-20 has generated a buy signal for a not xxed true buy. If this is indeed the bottom, there's only one bullish scenario remaining within the SKI method: an immediate surge past $230, followed by continued momentum to trigger the 35-39 index buy signal. Given the prevailing low sentiment, this scenario isn't implausible, at least while the recent low is holding ($212.81).
NEW/Sep14: 16-20 has triggered a sell signal. This marks a hopeful initial step towards the previously outlined bullish scenario. The next necessary step is surpassing the $230 mark.
NEW/Sep21: There is a favourable bullish setup if the 16-20 index generates a buy signal and subsequently the price increases to trigger a 35-39 buy signal. However, today's market activity seems to suggest a rejection by the 50-day MAV and the 35-39 index, with the price retracting back into the descending channel. The window for this scenario is rapidly closing and the action looks bearish.
NEW/Sep27: The downside target is $190ish.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 8 days, +0.05% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $14776)
*comment/Apr19: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39, 92-96 and 218-222 indexes are on buy signals. Everything is lined up in a bullish order.
NEW/Aug04: It appears that NDX hit some kind of a top around $16K. If a correction begins, the initial target is likely the $14.5K zone.
NEW/Oct02: The correction target remains set at $14150-14200, but the current market behaviour seems quite bullish. Unlike the S&P, there exists a favourable double-buy scenario (16-20/35-39) if the price can rise above $15200 again and continue upward. However, if it does rise and then fails to advance, a triple-sell trap is poised to execute. Alternatively, a straightforward bearish scenario could unfold if we continue a downward slide until the 92-96 index sells.
NEW/Oct03: Along with the past five days, today's sell-off appears to be a retest of the breakdown from below. This suggests that the double_buy/triple_sell scenario mentioned earlier is becoming less likely, and the trajectory seems to favour a direct descent to $14200.
$RUT - Russell 2000, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $1729)
*comment/Oct04: The Russell chart displays a bearish setup. The triple buy signal from July 2023 has not held, marking a bearish turn. More concerning is the fact that the end of this triple buy signal aligned today with a 92-96 sell signal and a breach of technical support. While the triggering of the 92-96 sell signal could indicate a temporary low, subsequent rallies are likely to be selling opportunities.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 48 days, +19.3% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.74)
*comment/Jul28: The 10-year yield (10yy) has reentered a true bull market. Although the SKI structure is solid, the buy signal was triggered below the major resistance level, requiring a rise above that level for validation. Monitoring this chart is crucial, as a surge above 4% might trigger turbulence in the broader markets including the gold market.
NEW/Aug01: Today's surge of the 10-year yield (10yy) above 4% undoubtedly stirred the gold market. It appears that the 10yy target is the October high of 4.29%, or even 5.3% if this truly is a bull market. While gold may face challenges if this continues, a correction in the broader market shouldn't be ruled out too.
NEW/Aug03: The 10-year yield continues to spike up and might soon reach the recent top at 4.29% (and probably go beyond). It's intriguing when the equity market will take notice of this.
NEW/Aug08: A short-term peak was reached at 4.2%, with yields declining since. This aligns with my theory that a surge beyond the key resistance range (4.1%-4.3%) is essential for the 92-96 buy signal confirmation. We're now back below this resistance. If this recent high persists, a 35-39 sell signal will likely emerge, possibly indicating that the peak has been established.
NEW/Aug15: 10yy is breaching a crucial level and disrupting the equity markets. With its momentum and bullish signals in DXY, further advancement seems likely before stabilizing. 4.4% is likely the next stop, then 5%.
NEW/Aug18: The 10yy rally seems unyielding, typical of a genuine bull signal. On Thursday, it reached its highest intraday and closing levels since the FED began tightening. If this ascent persists, particularly with abrupt spikes, the markets could face significant challenges. The 10-year notes' COT reading mirrors the March peak but has a higher open interest. If small specs shift to the short side in the next report, I might consider going long TLT, aiming to pinpoint the yield's peak, but that is a big if.
NEW/Aug29: It appears that the 10yy has reached a short-term peak at 4.35%. It will be telling to see if the 218-222 index produces a sell signal (around 4%), which could suggest this short-term peak is transitioning into a longer-term one, potentially indicating an imminent end to the bull market. I often revisit the notion of the bull market's conclusion, primarily because that was my initial assessment shaped by the termination of the successful 92-96 true buy signal in March 2023. Historically, after extended bull markets, there's a trend where quick 92-96 buy signals emerge but dissipate swiftly. The present signal is a second such buy, it is well-constructed and would necessitate a significant dip to 3.5% to nullify it. However, I still deem this scenario plausible, which is why I'm closely observing the potential 218-222 sell signal. That being said, it's crucial to acknowledge that the current bull market's foundation remains unshaken as of now.
NEW/Sep19: The 10-year yield closed at its highest level since the peak in October. Today is the day of the FOMC meeting, so this level will either become the top or a point of acceleration; maintaining the current level without significant changes is highly unlikely.
NEW/Sep21: So, it seems the FOMC day acted as the acceleration point, just as I anticipated it could. Everything on this chart suggests further upside. A short-term correction is due soon. 4.1% is now acting as support.
NEW/Oct03: No sign of a short-term correction; it appears we're heading into a blow-off top.
XAU, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed, 7 days, -6.12% (after double SELL 92-96/35-39) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $103.31)
*comment/Aug04: The XAU index is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's 92-96 sell signal indicates a low. Since the peak in April 2023 the price has been following a bearish descending channel. The channel's bottom is currently close to the $110-112 area, setting a potential target for the ongoing trend. A price surge above $130, sustained for a significant period, could revert the pattern to bullish.
NEW/Aug07: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal today, following the 92-96/35-39 double sell initiated yesterday. The signal is xxed, making it risky to buy.
NEW/Aug18: The $110-112 target range has been reached. If the price doesn't stabilize here, there could be significant issues.
NEW/Aug23: Nice bounce off of the support area. Its extent remains to be seen. I can't lean more than short-term bullish until the $130 resistance is breached (35-39 buy).
NEW/Sep25: 16-20 crossed to BUY but the action seems bearish. The target is $107.5 and then sub $100.
ASA, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed, 11 days, -10.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $12.94)
*comment/Aug04: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its May 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the July 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $15.5) and the ascending channel's bottom (around $15). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $13 becomes the target. Surpassing $15.5 and maintaining it (35-39 buy signal) would revert the trend to bullish.
NEW/Aug10: Today's movement was bearish. The price opened higher, reaching the $15.5 resistance before reversing and closing in the red, nearly 2% below yesterday's close. I expect more downside pressure.
NEW/Aug14: The ASA price rise continues to encounter resistance, and each downward movement surpasses the preceding upward one. The prevailing trend still indicates a downward pressure. A quick ascent above $15.5 is required to alleviate this pressure. A 35-39 buy signal could signal an increasing likelihood of such an occurrence.
NEW/Aug15: Support appears to have faltered. If so, the next target is around $13.5.
NEW/Aug18: ASA, the most reliable gold market timing indicator in recent years, hasn't shown signs of bottoming. The target remains at $13.5.
NEW/Aug23: $14.06 is the bottom so far. The durability of this bounce is yet to be determined. $15 is the resistance; it needs to break and hold for several days to argue in favour of a bullish case.
NEW/Sep01: The rise halted precisely at $15.04, coinciding with the 35-39 resistance and the prevailing downtrend line. Additionally, the 16-20 index seems to be resisting a buy signal. This is not bullish. A decisive breach above $15 is crucial to alter this bearishness and pave the way for a potential 35-39 buy, either as an isolated signal or in tandem with the 16-20 index as a double buy. Historically, the initial week of September often dictates the trend, so it will be interesting to observe if there's a change of sentiment for gold stocks. We need a 16-20 sell signal.
NEW/Sep12: Considering the track record of the ASA as the best-performing gold sector timing tool over the last three or more years, it's significant to note that it is the only gold index showcasing a decline today. This aligns with the loss that we are witnessing in the gold metal today hence I am not sure we could interpret today as a divergence day.
NEW/Sep15:16-20 sold, however, it has the potential to buy back tomorrow. Should that happen, it cannot be perceived as indicative of bullish behaviour.
NEW/Sep19: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal which is on the path of trades and not XXed. It comes only two days after the sell signal so I am not sure if it is positive or negative. The best strategy is just to wait until either 35-39 buys over $15 or 218-222 sells around $13.5.
NEW/Sep22: The market action is bearish. It appears that a decline to 13.5 is more probable to occur before there is any increase above $15.
Throughout this period, the ASA chart has accurately signalled every critical juncture, each time indicating a bearish outcome. On September 1st, the rise halted precisely at $15.04, marking the upper boundary of the descending channel. The initial week of September signalled a downward trend, acting as a leading indicator for the rest of the month. On September 12th, when every other gold index displayed positive divergence, ASA was the only one dissenting. The 16-20 buy on September 19th was too close to the 16-20 sell, which we now recognize as bearish.
Given these observations and as the $13.5 support is being approached, it will be pivotal to monitor whether the ASA chart exhibits any change in behaviour.
NEW/Oct02: The price on Friday dipped intraday to $13.06, closing at $13.32 (hence falling out of the uptrend channel). Some traction has been displayed, but it still feels like there is unfinished business, likely necessitating a dip to between $12-12.5.
BITCOIN, on 35-39 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 8 days, +5.11% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $27707
*comment/Aug23: BTC is in neutral configuration, 92-96 bearish, 35-39 bullish. The price has been moving inside the trading range of $25K-32K since March. If 25K support fails it is probably going to 20K.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed , 7 days, -4.49% (after a double sell 35-39/92-96); (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY > to SELL 33.73/-0.79% or lower; current $34.00)
*comment/Sep01: COPX is currently in a bearish constellation but within an ongoing bullish consolidation pattern that dates back to 2021. The price mostly fluctuates between $34 and $42, occasionally venturing to $28 and $47. The $40-$42 range remains a significant resistance level, confirmed recently when a touch of the $42 boundary level was once again a 'kiss of death' which consequently produced a double 35-39/92-96 sell signal. While the overall market is experiencing a breakout, copper is lagging behind, which is not a bullish sign as copper is typically expected to lead.
At present, we're observing a recovery from a recent low of around $35.5, and as of today, a 35-39 buy signal has emerged. The longevity of this signal seems limited. If after the potential 35-39 sell signal (high probability), the price manages to hover above the $36 ballpark, it could pave the way for a 16-20 sell signal. This would lead to a potential double or even triple buy by month-end, provided that, during the next retracement, the price remains north of $34. A linear ascent from today appears unlikely, but would certainly be bullish. Conversely, a descent without initially triggering the 16-20 buy would be bearish, likely ending in challenging the $34 support.
New/Sep25: The triple buy scenario is now active.
NEW/Sep26: The triple buy scenario is in play, but the price action appears bearish, and the $34 support seems to be the target. If this holds true (seems probable), then the triple buy scenario will be invalidated.
NEW/Oct04: The $34 support has been reached, in line with expectations. While the triple buy scenario remains a possibility, it now hinges on an upward explosion, which seems unlikely. The current trend appears bearish, and if the $34 support doesn't hold, look out below.
DXY (dollar index), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed (double buy with 92-96), 37 days, +3.47% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL > to NOT BUY 106.07/-0.64% or lower; current 106.75)
*comment/Sep01: DXY is currently in a bullish constellation, with the price broken out of the downtrend line that emanates from the September 2022 top. The breakout has been marked by xxed double buy signal 35-39/92-96 with the path of trades on the 35-39 index. Having said that the signal still needs a confirmation by rising over the $104.7 resistance level. If successful it seems that $105.39 is the first target, then $107.18.
NEW/Oct02: We are nearing the second target. If this aligns with a 218-222 buy signal, it will either mark a peak or an acceleration point. My inclination is towards a peak, but we'll see.
GDX, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed, 6 days, -3.72% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $25.91)
*comment/Aug04: GDX is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its May 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the September 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $31.5) and the ascending channel's bottom (around $30). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $26.5-27.0 becomes the target. Surpassing $32ish and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.
NEW/Aug15: $26.5-27 area is the target.
NEW/Aug25: So far the low stands at $27.27, nearly reaching my target. I'm watching for another potential dip to retest that level. Nonetheless, I won't shift to a more optimistic view until the price surpasses $30 and the 35-39 index generates a buy signal.
NEW/Sep21: There is a favourable bullish setup if the 16-20 index generates a buy signal and subsequently the price increases to trigger a 35-39 buy signal. However, today's market activity seems to suggest a rejection by the 50-day MAV and the 35-39 index, with the price staying in the descending channel. The window for this scenario is rapidly closing and the action looks bearish.
NEW/Oct04: Downside target $24ish.
GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed, 8 days, -8.57% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $30.83)
*comment/Aug04: GDXJ is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its April 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $37) and the ascending channel's bottom (around 34.5). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $32.0 becomes the target. Surpassing $37ish and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.
NEW/Aug15: $31-32 area is the target.
NEW/Aug25: So far the low stands at $32.98, nearly reaching my target. I'm watching for another potential dip to retest that level. Nonetheless, I won't shift to a more optimistic view until the price surpasses $36.5 and the 35-39 index generates a buy signal.
NEW/Aug29: The first condition to start looking at the bullish side has been met today, 35-39 bought. The price settled approximately at, before mentioned, $36.5 and if it can sustain this level and rise further things will start looking more positive. Having said that the SKI structure is not favourable for this signal, it will need a strong move up to $39 to avoid triggering a sell. Even if the 35-39 does indicate a sell, there are intriguing and potentially highly bullish scenarios I'll highlight if they become more likely.
NEW/Sep07: The 35-39 buy signal was short-lived. Despite experiencing 6 consecutive days of decline, the recent low is still holding, which fosters hope for a short-term rally. For the outlook to turn bullish, we first need to see a 16-20 sell signal, followed by a successive 35-39 buy signal.
NEW/Sep21: There is a favourable bullish setup if the 16-20 index generates a buy signal and subsequently the price increases to trigger a 35-39 buy signal. However, today's market activity seems to suggest a rejection by the 50-day MAV and the 35-39 index, with the price retracting back into the descending channel. The window for this scenario is rapidly closing and the action looks bearish.
NEW/Oct04: Downside target $29ish, then $27ish.
GLD, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, XXed (after a 16-20/35-39 double sell), 6 days, -2.85% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $169.14)
*comment/Aug04: GLD displays a bearish constellation. Although the 92-96 index sold today, the SKI structure for gold differs somewhat from that of gold stocks. While gold stocks' long indices are mixed, gold's are bullish. The triple buy signal initiated in early March (218-222/439-443/660-664) remains active. Additionally, traditional technical indicators remain long-term bullish for gold (price above 200-day MAV), whereas they show deterioration for the stocks. To revert to a bullish trend for gold, it only needs to surpass the resistance at $181-184 ($1960-1980) and maintain that level (35-39 buy) long enough for the 92-96 index to buy back. If the 92-96's sell signal marks the beginning of a new decline, significant support is found within the $172-175 range. This support, dating back to the 2018 low, is critical for the bull market's continuation.
NEW/Aug18: $175 ($1890) has been hit but there are still no signs of the bottom. After some consolidation, I think we might test the $170-172 ($1820-1850).
NEW/Aug25: The low has reached $174.93 ($1883 spot), meeting my target. However, I wouldn't rule out a further decline to the $170-172 ($1820-1850 spot) range. Confirmation of a potential final bottom won't be clear until the price surpasses $181 ($1960 spot). Patience remains essential
NEW/Aug29: The 35-39 initiated a buy, creating a JPOT double buy alongside the existing 16-20 buy signal. Given the current SKI configuration, this 35-39 buy is likely to be short-lived. If a 16-20 sell signal precedes the anticipated 35-39 sell, it will result in a double sell. However, if the price can remain above $175 for a few weeks afterwards, another double buy might be triggered. This has the potential to evolve into a triple buy if the rally continues. $181 acts as a formidable resistance ($1960 spot). Let's see what happens.
NEW/Aug31: The 16-20 index triggered a sell, thus setting in motion the double sell scenario previously mentioned.
NEW/Sep07: The 35-39 index has triggered its sell signal, resulting in a 16-20/35-39 double sell scenario. I'd like to see a further descent to $175 or even lower (around the $1880 spot) to shake off the remaining bulls. Despite the largely pessimistic sentiment prevalent in the gold market at present, the price maintains above the recent low, even amidst the strengthening dollar index. If this trend continues, I plan to enter a long position on the forthcoming 16-20 or 35-39 buy signal, depending on which one materializes first.
NEW/Sep21: There is a promising bullish setup if the 16-20 index generates a buy signal, and then the price ascends to trigger a 35-39 buy signal. However, today's market movement seems to indicate a rejection by the 50-day MAV and the 35-39 index, with the price falling back into the descending channel. Unlike gold stocks, the metal's setup is reasonably favourable for a bullish double buy. The only prerequisite is that the price maintains above the recent low ($174.93) for a couple of weeks. On a side note, the AUD price of gold is on the brink of generating a true bull buy signal.
SLV, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, XXed, 12 days, -9.21% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 crossed to SELL > to BUY 19.89/+3.0% or higher; current $19.31)
*comment/Aug14: The SLV chart is in a bearish configuration. Both 92-96 and 35-39 indices sold, yet the price hasn't exited the $21-24 trading range since its May peak. It's now nearing the $21 support. If the weakness persists, targets are roughly $19.5-20.0 ($21.5-22 spot) followed by $18.5 ($19.89 spot). However, a buy signal from the 35-39 index could indicate a possible retest of resistance at $24 ($26 spot).
NEW/Aug25: The 35-39 buy signal aligned with the bottom at $20.55, which closely matches my target. The sustainability of this rally is now the main question. The 16-20 is poised to sell shortly. If it's followed by a 35-39 sell, it could spell trouble for those in long positions, especially if the price falls below $22 again. Rising over $23.5 during the next 4 weeks would be bullish.
NEW/Aug30: The 16-20 has sold, confirming expectations. We're now in a double-sell scenario. To counteract this, the price must swiftly surpass approximately $23 (triggering a 92-96 buy).
NEW/Sep07: The 35-39 index has triggered its sell signal, resulting in a 16-20/35-39 double sell scenario. I'd like to see a further descent to $20.5 or even lower to shake off the remaining bulls. The price maintains staying above the recent low, even amidst the strengthening dollar index. If this trend continues, I plan to enter a long position on the forthcoming 16-20 or 35-39 buy signal, depending on which one materializes first.
NEW/Sep19: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal, prompting me to establish a long position. I've set the stop loss at a close below $20.45.
NEW/Sep21:Continued price strength, similar to today's, will result in a double buy signal from the 35-39 index, or even potentially a triple buy, with a 92-96 buy signal following a week later.
NEW/Oct02: I was stopped out of my long position on Friday. The target to end this fall is around $18.5.
TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onPath, NotXXed, 10 days, -1.55% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.64)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a slightly falling trading channel (bullish). $105-106 is very firm support and I don't expect it to be broken. If it does that might cause turmoil in the gold market.
NEW/July19: The 92-96 signal has generated an xxed JPOT buy signal. However, the SKI structure is currently weak, making it unlikely for this signal to survive the next few weeks. Nevertheless, if the next signal is a 35-39 buy, it could create a bullish setup capable of transforming the chart into a bullish breakout. The recent bottoming pattern around $105 and the existing bullish momentum make this scenario quite probable.
NEW/Jul28: So the 92-96 sold, as expected. The bearishness continues. Seems like the major support around $104-105 will be tested again.
NEW/Aug04: The price's drop to the significant support zone near $105 triggered a sharp surge, mirroring reactions in July, March, and October 2022. This hints at a potential bottom, though confirmation is essential.
NEW/Aug10: There's been no continuation from the August 4th movement. The low is not confirmed yet but it is still intact.
NEW/Aug15: We're in a solid support zone, testing the October 2022 lows. I anticipate a dip to around $104, but it should hold for at least a short-term rebound.
NEW/Aug25: The bottom so far is at $104.57 and holding but we are not out of the woods yet.
NEW/Aug29: The 218-222 initiated a buy. If the rally from the recent low persists, the 35-39 is likely to buy soon, possibly indicating a bottom.
NEW/Sep07: The 218-222 index has terminated its buy signal, a development that does not bode well for bullish prospects. The contest over the support range of $104-105 is ongoing. It is imperative that this threshold remains resilient if we are to anticipate a bottoming out in the gold sector.
NEW/Sep21: Today, the day of the 16-20 buy execution, must mark the low; otherwise, we may be witnessing a breakdown that could indicate an impending credit freeze. This scenario would not bode well for the gold market.
NEW/Sep26: The struggle to maintain the $104-105 support seems to be lost. The immediate target is $103, after which we will assess further. If a bounce doesn't follow, we might be heading into a credit freeze.
TLT, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed (juxtaposed, while on double SELL with 35-39/92-96), 11 days, -7.34 (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $86.26)
NEW/Jun22: There is a setup for a triple buy signal at the beginning of July. The price needs to be around $100 at that time.
NEW/July10: The support at $98.88 is being challenged in a manner that looks like a breakdown. The 10yy is at 4% and any further rise will confirm the breakdown of the TLT chart. A TLT price turnaround here will produce a triple buy signal that I explained above. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Jul18: A triple buy scenario has occurred, combining the 35-39 buy, 92-96 buy, and 16-20 buy signals. However, the SKI structure poses a threat to the sustainability of these buy signals. It is highly possible for the situation to transition rapidly into a double sell, which aligns more favourably with the SKI structure. To shift my outlook to bullish, it is crucial for the price to swiftly exceed $104 and maintain that level (10yy at 3.4%) for a few consecutive days. Currently, I am just observing.
NEW/Jul25: The 92-96 index generated a sell signal, concluding the triple buy as anticipated. If this downtrend persists, it's likely to exert downward pressure on the gold price.
NEW/Jul26: The 35-39 index has sold, forming a double sell signal with the 92-96 index. Despite this, support around $99 remains intact, but a retest appears likely.
NEW/Aug01: We're currently breaching the support at $98. Having broken the March and July lows, the next target is $92. This implies a 10-year yield (10yy) of around 4.3%, spelling trouble for all markets except the dollar.
NEW/Aug15: We're nearing the October 2022 lows at $92. I expect a slight breach of this level before at least a short-term bounce.
NEW/Aug25: We've touched the $92.23 mark, sparking a robust rally that suggests we might be seeing the formation of a bottom. Triggering a 218-222 buy signal would be a step in that direction.
NEW/Sep21: Today, we broke through the lows of August and October. The decline must halt here; otherwise, we might be witnessing a breakdown that could signal an impending credit freeze.
NEW/Sep26: So the 16-20 didn't stop the fall which is uber bearish. The only positive thing at the moment is that the whole internet and MSM space is screaming CRASH! Let's see what happens.
NEW/Oct04: Upon reflection, while many are indeed fearful of a market crash, their response seems to be flocking to TLT. This may not offer the expected support, given the crowded nature of this trade.
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 62 days, +25.26% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to BUY 34.35/+9.96% or higher; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $31.24)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
NEW/Sep21: The price action suggests that a correction might be due soon, if it hasn't already begun.
NEW/Oct04: The correction is now fully underway, with an initial target around the $28 mark.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 16-20 SELL (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 52 days, +15.29% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $25.18)
I sold my initial buy, reducing it to just the core position (still substantial) and will let it run. I plan to buy back a trading position again if prices retract to the support area.
NEW/Oct04: I am building a trading position again. 25% long.
USERX, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true); 9 days, -8.16%; run pattern in-progress 1U/4D/-1.12%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.22)
*comment/Aug04: The 92-96 index generated a sell signal, therefore, changing the SKI structure to bearish. The 16-20 generated a buy signal at the same time. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its peak in April 2023, the price has followed a bearish descending channel. Yet, it also tracks a bullish ascending channel originating from July 2022. The price now sits on the lower boundary between the descending channel's resistance (around $10.28) and the ascending channel's support (around $9.5). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $8.8 becomes the target. This area, if tested, must hold because that is the bull market trending support dating back to the 2016(!) low. Surpassing $10.28 and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.
NEW/Sep25: The support at $8.8 is showing signs of breaking down, and there's a high likelihood that 218-222 will execute a sell. The first target appears to be the $8.4-$8.5 range, which should offer noticeable support, but the decline could easily extend to the October low at $8.09. If this scenario unfolds and $8.09 fails to hold as support — which I'm not predicting — we could potentially see a test of $7.5 before the correction concludes.
NEW/Oct04: The price is trending toward the October 2022 low of $8.09. No signs of support yet.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 16-20 BUY, OnPath, NotXXed(true), 6 days, -4.98%; (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $6069)
*comment/Aug14: The XGD chart configuration is bearish while the overall outlook remains ambiguous. The $6200 support dating back from 2015 low and the 200-day MAV still hold. The 881-885 index bought, hinting at a potential bottom. If a 35-39 buy signal emerges, I might repurchase what I recently sold. If the decline persists, I'll consider buying around $6100-6200 with tight stops. 35% long.
NEW/Aug18: The price dipped to 6226, meeting my target zone. I plan to buy on any intraday weakness this Monday, aiming for a short-term bounce for now.
NEW/Aug23: 50% long. Stops at break-even for the new buys. Target at 16-20 sell signal.
NEW/Aug29: The 439-443 index issued a buy signal today, which bodes well for the long-term perspective. However, a climb above $7700 is essential to align all indices correctly. I'm currently 50% long and aim to reduce back to 35% within the next couple of days.
NEW/Aug30: Down to 35% long since Thursday morning.
NEW/Aug31: 16-20 sold.
NEW/Sep01: 16-20 sell signal looks like it marked a peak. A gradual decline towards $6400ish would buy back the 16-20 and set the stage for a promising 35-39 JPOT buy. If the 16-20 sell signal didn't mark the top a rise over the $7000 mark would be very bullish. For now, there are no immediate bearish scenarios. The support is around $6300.
NEW/Sep07: We are nearing the $6400 level. My plan is to start buying back in the upcoming week, targeting the range of $6300-6500, provided we reach that zone. If we witness a steep decline that goes below $6300, and this consequently triggers a 16-20 buy signal, I am prepared to fully commit to a long position. As of now, I maintain a 35% long position.
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