The State Of Indices

SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 63 days, -0.11% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to SELL 3749/-7.56% or lower; current $4055)

*Comment/Apr13: SandP is in a bullish configuration. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an existing 92-96 true bull signal. Everything looks bullish but we need to overcome $4200 to confirm the bullishness. Dropping below the $4000 level would be bearish (sell 92-96).

NEW/Apr25: Beside the bullish configuration the price action is not particularly bullish. The reason is a lack of $4200 breakout confirmation. The end of the month is close so it is important to point out that the monthly close below the 36-month moving average is a potential crash signal. Currently, this average is reading $3984.  

HUI, 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 18 days, +1.42% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $259.82)

*comment/Apr20: HUI SKI configuration is bullish. 35-39, 218-222 and 439-443 generated buy signals inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal which is very bullish medium and long term. The price hit the target at the $270 level and is now consolidating around it. The next target is $320ish. On the downside, the $230 is the rising support that needs to hold for this bullish configuration to persist. Let's see how the price behaves around the 16-20 index which is currently around $245 and rising. 

New/Apr24: 439-443 sold and immediately bought back. It could sell again but if the $250 level holds till mid-May it will eventually buy and stay on the buy signal. 218-222 buy signal survived the test for now and that is more important in my opinion than the 439-443 index. The 16-20 support has risen to $255ish and is expected to be hit soon. Let's see the reaction. $270 is the resistance. 35-39 and 92-96 are reaching the current price level in the second half of May so by then the price needs to start advancing again or the bull market will end. 

New/Apr25: 439-443 sold again but I wouldn't pay too much attention to it as long as 218-222 is on buy signal. 16-20 touch/break is approaching. Let's see how the price behaves around it.  

New/Apr25: 16-20 started breaking toward a buy signal today. The deeper the price goes it will be harder to avoid the 92-96 sell signal later in May. For this reason, $250ish shouldn't be breached for more than a day or two. $270 is the resistance. 

$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 62 days, +5.26% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 12963/+1.23% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $12806)

*comment/Apr19: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39, 92-96 and 218-222 indexes are on buy signals. Everything is lined up in a bullish order. 13.5Kish is still the target. Longer term I wouldn't exclude 15K as a probable target. For the chart to turn bearish again the price needs to fall below 12K. Keep an eye on 10yy. Rising over 3.8% again would be a problem for Nasdaq. 

$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 16-20 SELL, 11 days, -2.44% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 1802/+4.16% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $1730)

*comment/Mar24: The SKI configuration is bearish. Both 35-39 and 92-96 indexes sold. The 92-96 sell signal is probably marking a short-term bottom. I will be looking for a short entry in the upcoming days. For the setup to revert to bullish the price needs to rise over $1950ish which doesn't look probable.

NEW/Apr05: 218-222 sold which adds to the bearishness. $1650 is the target on the downside.  

NEW/Apr12: Notice how Nasdaq and Russell are opposite in their configuration. One is bullish the other one bearish. I think one of them is wrong. Cannot help but think that would be the Nasdaq but I am usually wrong when I anticipate. 

NEW/Apr19: A rise over $1950 doesn't look so improbable anymore. In the case it happened, that would generate a triple buy signal 35-39/92-96/218-222. If we first dip down from now into a 16-20 buy signal and then turn up it could be even quadruple buy at around $1800ish. Such an action would fix the divergence with the Nasdaq. 

New/Apr25: Today's strong rejection from $1800 and significant fall feels bearish but the bullish setup explained in the previous post is still there. I still feel this should conclude in a bearish manner.

$TNX - 10Y yield, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 3.57/+4.08% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.43%)

*comment/Mar24: The 10yy is no longer in a bull market. Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes are on a sell signal now and the SKI structure is turning bearish. Only the 3.375% level, that I was writing about during the past few weeks, is giving support here. Today the 'price' opened under this level and spent the day climbing back to close exactly at it. This makes it vulnerable to a gap down on Monday toward my target 'price' at 3.2% but it is more probable that the signal execution day marked some sort of a short-term bottom.

NEW/Mar29: As expected the 35-39 sell signal marked a low. Let's see how far the rally can go. The odds are, not far enough to buy back the 92-96 index. 

NEW/Apr05: So the rise wasn't enough to even buy 35-39 let alone 92-96. Today 3.2-3.3% area started breaking down. This was expected. 3.2% is major support so I do not expect an instant breakdown but in the next few weeks, 3.2% should be hit. This will lead to the end of the 218-222 buy signal and a confirmation of a bear market. The bear market should run until at least 2.3% with a possibility to hit 1.9%. To change everything back to bullish 10yy needs to rise back above 3.8% (not expected). 

NEW/Apr19: After 3.2% was touched on the downside, the rise brought us back to the overhead resistance at 3.6%. If broken through a 92-96 buy signal would be generated. I wouldn't be too alarmed for now especially because it has been preceded by a 16-20 sell signal. What I'd be more interested in is if 3.8% can be broken through because that would indicate a new leg up. As it is now it seems that 3.8% will be tested soon. 

New/Apr24:92-96 buy signal has been generated but, for now, I am sticking to what I wrote in the post above.

New/Apr25: As expected the 92-96 sold quickly. The action is bearish. The price is in the zone of strong support so any further weakness will cause a breakdown and potentially target 2.8% in the long term. Short-term 3.2% is the target. On the other side if the price can hold and start a small rally to buy the 35-39 it will signal a potential move up to 3.8% to test the major resistance.

XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, -0.49% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $133.07)

*comment/Apr05: XAU SKI indexes are now in the bullish constellation. 35-39 bought, $138 has been hit, the next target is $145ish. Everything is bullish now. There is some space for a modest correction. The support of around $120 needs to hold for the bullishness to persist.  

New/Apr24: The correction is in progress. Soon the 16-20 will be hit. Let's see how that goes. By the second part of May 35-39 and 92-96 will rise to the current price level so if the new leg up doesn't start by then the bull market will end.  

ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 76 days, +5.69% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $16.53)

*comment/Mar02: 92-96 generated a true buy signal simultaneously with the $15 resistance being broken through. The correction after the rise is now testing that $15 breakout level. If this is the bottom, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern will start emerging. This pattern will have a neckline at around $17, and if the pattern comes out symmetrical, this level ($17) should be hit at the beginning of April. This would fit with my old thesis of a range-bound move ($14-$17) until May, but I am not so sure of it anymore. It is worth mentioning again that during the last two years, ASA had the most accurate signals in the gold sector so this chart is worth special attention. 

NEW/Mar08: Unlike HUI, XAU, GDX and GDXJ the ASA price (and USERX) didn't violate the recent low so if the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. Reminder again, in the last two years the ASA almost always differed from the rest and was almost always right.

NEW/Mar10: The low is still holding. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play.

NEW/Mar30:The 35-39 index is going to generate a buy signal tomorrow (if it doesn't fall 3.17%) but the price will still need to rise to around $17 to complete the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Given the state of the ASA chart and based on the fact that the ASA has been the benchmark for the gold sector behaviour for the last two years, the actual move in the gold sector will not start before May. The short-term could still include a rise to $17 first.

NEW/Mar31: 35-39 buy has been generated. $16.5-$17.0 is the target.

NEW/Apr05: The price hit $16.98 intraday on Thursday which was very close to my $17 target. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is now completed.  Now, this pattern needs to be broken through for the next leg up to start (above $17.0 and 218-222 buy signal). The end of April is the time frame.

NEW/Apr12: If you go and read the above messages you will see that so far everything was exactly as projected (wished for): bottom around $15 then rise to buy 35-39 and further advance to hit $17 at the beginning of April. The only thing missing is now 218-222 buy by the end of April and we will be ready to fly. The ideal scenario would be a small correction to buy 16-20 and then up to buy 218-222 for a double buy and rise over $17 to break the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders with a projected rise to $22ish. ASA is suggesting the gold market is not overheated, on the contrary, the real move should start in May.

New/Apr25: The end of April is here and the price is going to start touching 16-20 and 218-222 soon. Except if a sudden crash is about to unfold the 218-222 will buy during the next two weeks. By the end of May, it will need to be back to the current level and above to avoid the 92-96 sell signal.

Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 101 days, +33.4% (also, 16-20 to SELL 30226/+6.94% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28265

*comment/Apr19: BTC is in a bullish configuration. Support is around 25K. If 32Kish can be broken through then the target is 40K.

COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 10 days, -6.65% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 39.25/+0.87% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $38.91)

*comment/Mar02: COPX is in a bullish constellation. The price is testing the $38 level from above. If the level can hold and the price rises to buy back the 218-222 we might see a quick run up to $47. If not a drop to $34-35 is probable. 

NEW/Mar/08: the 35-39 buy signal ended today with a nice profit. Today's sell signal happened exactly at the critical $38 level. If this is the bottom there is a lot of work to do to clear the overhead resistance (16-20 sell, 35-39 buy, 218-222 buy) and start a new leg up over $42. In my opinion, the more probable scenario is a quick drop to $35ish to test the 92-96 support. 

NEW/Mar15: There we go $35 was hit today. I think we will continue down until the 92-96 sells.

NEW/Mar29: I was wrong about a potential 92-96 sell signal. For now, the 92-96 buy signal survived. The price is back at the critical $38. We will see if this is a test of former support from below or if the price can rise even further to buy back the 35-39 for new bullishness.  

NEW/Apr12: In my March 8th post above I stated: "If this is the bottom there is a lot of work to do to clear the overhead resistance (16-20 sell, 35-39 buy, 218-222 buy) and start a new leg up over $42. In my opinion, the more probable scenario is a quick drop to $35ish to test the 92-96 support." Besides my scepticism, the bullish scenario prevailed and with today's 35-39 buy signal all conditions for a bullish turnaround have been met. Now we just need a rise over $42 to confirm the bull market. 

NEW/Apr20: The $42 level behaves as a strong resistance for now hence no confirmation of the breakout yet. The level needs to be broken through before the end of May or the 92-96 index will end its buy signal. Falling below $38 at any time will indicate that something is wrong. 

DXY (dollar index), last signal 35-39 SELL, 18 days, -0.66% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $101.43

*comment/Mar02: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is bearish. The breakdown level at $105 is being tested from below. If it can resist the price advance the 35-39 and 218-222 will sell for a new leg down. If not a rally to $107 is likely where the major resistance will be tested.  

NEW/Mar13: It seems $105 survived the test from below. The longer it holds the more bearish this chart becomes. 

NEW/Mar23: The price started breaking the 218-222 index today. The 35-39 index back prices are close by and both indexes will be rising for the next four weeks. I expect that during this period they will both sell. Very short-term support could be shown to prevent the further immediate price slide.

NEW/Mar30: Further deterioration of the dollar chart continues. In the next two days, both 35-39 and 218-222 are probable to sell to complete the long-term bearish configuration. That is more good news for the gold sector but the sell signals might mark the short-term low for the dollar (top for the gold). 

NEW/Mar31: 35-39 sold, as expected. 218-222 is selling tomorrow. The dollar chart is now completely bearish. The next target is $98-99. Short-term we could see some consolidation or up but I wouldn't be surprised if we just keep going straight down to the target.

NEW/Apr05: The 218-222 sold. The next downside target is $98-99. $101 should slow down the fall for a while. 

GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 18 days, +3.03% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $33.33)

*comment/Apr05: The chart is in a bullish configuration. There is space for a correction but $28 must hold.

NEW/Apr13: The next target $40ish.

New/Apr24: The correction is still going on. Soon 16-20 will be hit. Let's see the reaction.

GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 18 days, +0.03% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $39.51)

*comment/Apr05: The chart is in a bullish configuration. $40 needs to be broken through for a new leg up to start. There is space for a correction but $35 must hold.

NEW/Apr13: The next target $52ish.

New/Apr24: The correction is still in progress. Soon 16-20 will be hit. Let's see the reaction.

New/Apr25: The 1620 is being hit. There is a setup for the 16-20 and 218-222 to buy simultaneously (bullish). 

GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 25 days, +0.71% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $184.74)

*comment/Mar23: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. A quadruple buy signal (3 long-term signals + 35-39) has been generated inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal. Everything is aligned in a bullish manner and looks uber-bullish in all time frames except the short term. A short-term consolidation would be very healthy, but $175 must be held. Except for the all-time high price of $194.45, there are no other resistance levels left. The other missing piece is the gold stocks need to start catching up.

NEW/Apr14: Getting close to the all-time high of $194.45. The trend is up. The current support is around $180. There is space and time for a correction at any time but I would prefer if it came after a new all-time high has been hit.

NEW/Apr20: The correction/consolidation that is in progress shouldn't go deeper than $181ish ($1950ish spot) but if it does the worst-case scenario shouldn't exceed $178ish ($1920 spot) or something more serious is happening here.

SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 18 days, +3.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $22.83)

*comment/Mar30: The SLV chart constellation is back to bullish. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal. That is bullish. If this signal marks a start of a consolidation/correction period there is an opportunity in the next two months to sell/buy the 92-96 index and transform the chart into a true bull market setup. $22.0-22.5 is a firm resistance which, if broken, will set the target to $24ish. The support that shouldn't be violated is around $20ish and will be rising toward the end of April. 

NEW/Apr05: The $22 resistance level has been broken through. The target is $23.5-24.0. $22 should become support now.

NEW/Apr13: Approaching the target of $24.0. If we can consolidate around it and then break through an explosion might ensue to quickly reach 2020 high and above.

New/Apr25: The correction is approaching the 16-20 index back prices. At the same time, the breakout level of $22 is being approached from above. It looks like a test of the breakout. The level must hold or the 92-96 will sell. If it does sell (low probability) and then turns up the configuration will turn into a full-blown bull market. 

TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 52 days, +2.54% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $110.42)

*comment/Apr05: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The price broke free of the $110 resistance. The next target is $113. $108.9 needs to hold support or the structure will change back to bearish. TIP's chart compliments the bullish configuration of the gold sector. 

NEW/Apr19: The breakout level of $110 is being tested from above. It needs to hold. 

New/Apr25: So far so good.

 

TLT, 16-20 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $105.82)

*comment/Apr05: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 35-39 generated a buy signal inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal. That is bullish. The next target is $120 but the short-term $109 needs to be overcome first for the confirmation of the breakout. $101-102 needs to hold support or the structure will change back to bearish. 

NEW/Apr20: The 92-96 will most probably sell soon. That is not good news but similarly to when it generated a buy signal it needs to fall below $101 to confirm the breakdown. This is an important chart because it affects the 10yy so I am watching carefully. The price falling below $101 would probably push the 10yy over 3.8% again which would be a problem for the markets.

New/Apr24: The 92-96 sold as expected but the price holds the short-term uptrend which confirms my bias that we still need confirmation by breaking down the $101 level. 

UCO (crude oil ETF), 92-96 crossed to BUY (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 SELL executed today; 92-96 to SELL 25.0/-1.5% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $25.38)

*comment/Feb17: The price is ranging inside a horizontal contracting triangle since Aug 2022, therefore, producing a series of false signals and making it hard to decide if the setup is bullish or bearish. The triangle apex is positioned in March (22nd, $29ish) and by then a strong move up or down should start. The current resistance is $31ish and falling and the current support is $28ish and rising. Watch for these levels to be broken for a clue of the next move.

NEW/Mar10: I am ignoring all signals until eventually one of them gets confirmed by the price breaking free of the constraint of the contracting triangle. So far it didn't happen.  

NEW/Mar14: Todays's action looks like a move toward a breakdown. We will see if it is yet another fakeout. 

NEW/Mar15: Breakdown confirmed. I'm looking for a short entry. 

NEW/Apr05: Since the breakdown, the price rocketed up to buy back the 35-39 and sell the 16-20. I was looking for the short entry and this seems like a good entry point. I am establishing a short position with a 92-96 buy signal as the stop loss ($30ish, very tight).

NEW/Apr06: 35-39 sold instantly! That is bearish but it can buy back tomorrow. I am holding on to my short position.

NEW/Apr12: Another flip-flop, the 35-39 bought back and the 92-96 is buying tomorrow. Looks like a breakout. I am out of my short position (small loss).

NEW/Apr13: 92-96 bought for a double buy with the 35-39. I will watch it for a while before I start a long position.

NEW/Apr19: Flip-flopping continues. I continue watching.  

URA (uranium stocks ETF), 16-20 crossed to BUY (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.23)

*comment/Mar02: The price couldn't stay above the $23 level for more than a day. We are back inside the trading range of the last 10 months ($18-$22). Let's see if the 92-96 buy signal can hold up and give the price a chance for another try at the breakout.

NEW/Mar14: 92-96 sold. There is a good chance that the price will now quickly fall down to test the support at $18 and if that cannot hold there is a potential for a serious crash (30-40%). 

NEW/Apr13: If the price can rise back over $22 a triple buy signal will be generated, 35-39/92-96/218-222. Let's see what happens.

New/Apr25: Today's 16-20 buy signal sets the stage for a potential quadruple buy signal if the price starts rising and can brake over $21. If it happens the structure will not be very supportive so I'm not overly optimistic before the $23 level can be broken out. On the other side, $18 is the major support which, if broken down, can lead to an outright crash (initial target $14-15ish but ultimately $9-10ish). 

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 77 days, +1.18%; run pattern in-progress 1U/2D/-0.76%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 10.49/+1.55% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $10.33)

*comment/Mar02: USERX is on a true bull 92-96 signal but the 35-39 index is on a sell signal. The 35-39 sell signal should mark a low at least short-term. This is not how a bull market should start off but it is what it is. It is all about the $10.28 level and for now, it is resistance. We will not see a big move until that level is broken through properly. If the bottom forms around the recent low an inverse head and shoulder pattern will start appearing. The neckline of this pattern would be $10.28(!). Rising 92-96 back prices will cross this level at the beginning of May 2023 so in order not to end the bull market signal the price needs to slowly rise towards $10.28 during the next two months. The very-long term support is around $8.4-8.6 but if we get there the bull signal will end. 

NEW/Mar10: The price is holding around the recent low and the short-term trendline therefore the setup is still very similar to ASA. If the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. There is solid technical support around $8.9-9.0. If that can't hold the final and crucial long-term support is in the $8.0-8.4 area. The 92-96 index back prices are in the 8.4-9.13 area for the next 7 days.

NEW/Mar17: The inverse head and shoulders pattern is slowly taking shape but we are in a no man's land until the 35-39 index buys and more importantly $10.28 is cleared. The danger of 92-96 index selling is real so patience is in order. 

NEW/Mar29: The inverse head and shoulders pattern has been completed. The price closed above the critical $10.28 for two days in a row. The 35-39 index is about to generate a buy signal. Everything looks bullish. There is a space for short-term consolidation but the 92-96 buy signal needs to hold (9.2ish). By the first week of May either the price takes off or the bull market will end.

NEW/Mar30: 35-39 bought. Third day close above $10.28. If $10.71 is breached then $11.2 is the target. That would be in sync with ASA and the $17 target.

NEW/Apr05: The price keeps holding above the $10.28 level but it is probable we will see one more test from above. This time the test should be successful or there is a danger of the 92-96 selling. 

NEW/Apr12: Slowly but surely the price action looks like a breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern. The  next target is $12.5ish

NEW/Apr13: We are leaving the $10.28 station. The technical target of the broken inverse head and shoulders pattern is $12.48 so that is the target. In a longer time frame the long-term tops since 2000 were usually made when rPrice(200) exceeded 50% (current is 15%). When we plug today's 200 MAV into the formula that puts us up at $14.22, so I guess that would be the price to take profits. 

NEW/Apr19: It seems that the train leaving the $10.28 station call was too soon. The perfect bullish scenario here would be a drop to buy the 16-20 index (under $10.33) and then turn around and buy the 218-222 for a double buy and the start of the new leg up. This action is not necessary for continued bullishness but using up more time seems probable.

New/Apr25: So here we go at (above mentioned) $10.33, just a bit above the crucial $10.28 level. This test of the $10.28 from above needs to be successful (218-222 buy signal) or the 92-96 will sell by the end of May.

XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 20 days, +11.4% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $7477)

*comment/Mar31: The XGD chart configuration is bullish. The resistance ($6600) has been broken through. It is safe to say that $7700 is the next target. $6600 now should behave as support. 70% long.

NEW/Apr12: We are closing on my $7700 target. In the next 2 days, the 881-885 index will sell and probably mark some kind of a top (see the chart on my USERX and XGD charts post). Maybe it is time to take some profit. 65% long.

NEW/Apr13: 881-885 sell signal generated today. Simultaneously with this signal long-term resistance is being hit and the upper channel of the uptrend is being hit. I expect a consolidation hence taking some profits and rotating to stocks that just started the uptrend. If the $7700-7800 area cannot stop the advance the whole sector could just explode towards $10000.  

NEW/Apr19: Consolidation is underway. The 16-20 index is rising support, currently $7000ish. I am 50% long and looking to buy back on weak days.