The State Of Indices

 SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 16 days, +0.74% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $4090)

*Comment/Feb01: SandP is in a bullish configuration. The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated and is holding (joined today with a 35-39 buy signal). The 36-month MAV sell signal (crash indicator) has failed again. I am now long this market ($4100 entry). No stop loss for now but will consider closing the position if the price closes below 3990 two days in a row.


HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 69 days, +5.98% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 231.68/+1.97% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $227.2)
*comment/Feb15: HUI SKI configuration is bullish but it will switch to neutral if the 35-39 index sells.
The correction is underway after the first upside target had been hit ($270ish). So far the price receded to my initial target but it didn't stop there and is now on the way to the next target ($220-225). If we get there the 35-39 will sell and the path will be cleared (making the configuration neutral). I'd like this potential target hit to be quick with a rapid recovery over the $225 level. The reason is that there is an important uptrend line going back to the 2018 low in this area and it needs to hold. Otherwise, things will start looking dangerous for the 92-96 buy signal. If everything goes wrong there is major support around $180 but that is not in the picture for now. The end of the 35-39 buy signal will most probably lead to a couple of months of sideways/down move with a possibility to breach the low created in the next few days.


$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 15 days, +2.27% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $12442)
*comment/Feb01: The chart is transitioning to a bullish configuration. The resistance level at $12K has been broken out. The 92-96 index bought for a double buy with the 35-39 index which is on the path of trades. We could see a run to the $13.5K level quickly. Selling the 35-39 index in the next two weeks (below $11.5K) would be a problem.


$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 22 days, +4.74% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1942)
*comment/Feb01: The SKI configuration is bullish. The double 35-39/92-96 signal was generated and it is holding. The bearish trendline is already broken out and it all seems bullish. I am looking for a long entry.


$TNX - 10Y yield, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 7 days, +5.2% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 BUY executed today; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.84%)
*comment/Feb01: The 10yy is in a bull market but it is in a late stage and everything is set to end soon. 3.375% is an important support level and if broken down we could see a quick drop down to 2.8%ish. If that doesn't happen we could see a trading range between 3.4% and 3.9% for a while. To avoid the end of the bull market a sharp rally needs to start at once and replicate the run that we have seen between the Aug and Nov 2022 (not expected).
NEW/Feb03: The 92-96 true bull signal finally ended, after 307 days and a 117% rise. The important 3.375% level is held for now but the 92-96 sell is implying that it will give up support soon. If a rally happens in the next few weeks (expected) and the 92-96 buys back I'd guess that 3.9% is a firm resistance and the 92-96 will not last long.
NEW/Feb08: 35-39 bought back simultaneously with 16-20 selling. These kinds of synchronous signals tend to mark tops. We will see. The traditional TA resistance line hasn't been broken yet. The 92-96 index might buy back too but that buy probably will not last. This rise was expected but now I do expect the signals to fail. If not 3.9% is the battleground to decide if the bull is going to reinstate itself or not.
NEW/Feb15: So far, since the 92-96 index ended the bull market signal everything is happening exactly as I expected (read the comments above). Today the 92-96 bought back and the price is approaching the 3.9% level that I mentioned before. This area will be the battleground between bulls and bears for who will have command over the next few months. My bias is that the bears will eventually prevail but for now all seems like the bulls are in control. Rising 10yy is in opposition to the rising SandP 500 and one or the other will need to give up soon. Either that or the economy is really booming and they can rise together.


XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 69 days, +6.38% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 121.9/+2.19% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $119.29)
*comment/Jan04: XAU is in a SKI bullish configuration. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The resistance at the $120-125 area was finally broken through. The next target is $140ish (done) then $170ish. The $127 level now acts as support.
NEW/Feb03: We have seen the top for now ($140ish). Time to find the support level. $125 is the first line of support, then $115.
NEW/Feb09: Here we are at the first line of support. The longer the price stays around this level the more chance for the 35-39 index to sell. If we are not in the bull market yet the ideal move for the next 2 months would be a sideways move in the $120-140 range.
NEW/Feb15: Approaching the 35-39 sell signal. After the signal, I expect some sideways/down in the next 6-8 weeks. $125 will be resistance. $112-115 level is support. If it fails the 92-96 buy signal is in danger of selling.


ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 29 days, -5.37% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.80)
*comment/Jan06: 92-96 generated a true buy signal together with the $15 resistance being smashed through. Very bullish. Targets $16.5-17.0 (done) then $18.7 then $23.
NEW/Feb03: We have seen the top for now ($16.89). Time to find the support level. $15.0 is the first line of support, then $14.0-14.5.
NEW/Feb09: Here we are at the first support level. Regarding the gold market the ASA SKI chart has given the most accurate SKI signals in the last 12 months. Today the ASA chart executed the 16-20 and the 660-664 buy signals simultaneously. What is it marking I am not sure but it has to be either the short-term bottom or the acceleration to the downside? For now, the bull market is not in danger but the 16-20 index needs to sell before the 35-39 index in order to maintain the medium-term upside pressure (it is warranted that one of these two signals will be the next one to generate). My opinion, based on the momentum and the severity of the breakdown is that we will go further down until the 35-39 index sells first. Such a drop will demoralize the majority of the gold bulls and it will take a month or two to build a setup for a new leg up. If I am right then the bullish move is postponed probably till the end of March. If I am wrong the price will be back at the $17 level in the next 7 days.


Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 32 days, +13.85% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 23030/-4.53% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $24124
*comment/Feb01: BTC is in a bullish configuration but it needs more time to consolidate. The 218-222 bought back which is bullish, now it needs to hold. $25K is the resistance. If I bought the 35-39 signal (as I was thinking at the time) I would sell at $25K and then look to buy back after a correction.
NEW/Feb15: It seems like the correction is over and BTC is going to break through the 25K and hit 28K soon. I would still sell some at 25K.


COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 69 days, +19.78% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $39.36)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not sure of the long-term implications of the recent SKI signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Jan13: Today we hit $41.0 which is above the $38 target that I used to mention in my December blogs. The action looks like a breakout above an important resistance so, considering the bullish SKI structure I think it is time to start looking for a long entry. I expect the test of $38 breakout and will be looking to go long around there.
NEW/Feb03: The correction is in progress so I am looking at that $37-38 level to hold in order to go long.


DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 52 days,
-0.45% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $104.04)
*comment/Dec15: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is turning bearish. My target at 103 was hit today and should represent support. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last defence before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish) which should be used to start shorting.
NEW/Dec31: The SKI structure is now outright bearish. So far no strength has been shown in order to sell the 16-20 index. The $103 critical level is being hit again. It needs to hold or $100 becomes the target.
NEW/Jan04: $103 holding so far. I am still looking for that $106 target to be hit.
NEW/Jan06: The 16-20 index strongly rejected the rise after $106 was approached. Seems like $103 will be tested again and if it doesn't hold the next target is $100.
NEW/Jan13: $103 didn't hold so I expect the 218-222 index, the last remaining piece of the bull market, to be tested soon ($100-101 currently and rising). The end of the month looks like the decision time.
NEW/Jan20: Since my last comment DXY continued its slow decline towards the 218-222 index. The touch/break of it will probably mark some kind of a low but the SKI structure is now deep in the bear territory and I expect this index to sell soon and DXY to fall down to $99 (in a couple of months).
NEW/Feb03: The touch of the 218-222 index caused an instant strong move up, as expected. Now, the question is how far this rally can go. I think no more than $105 and then down to sell the 218-222. The long-term resistance level is now around $109 and falling. For the next few months, the price should oscillate between this recent low ($101) and that falling resistance.


GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 69 days, +7.54% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 28.69/+0.07% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.67)
*comment/Jan27: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The first target at $33.5ish has been hit. Consolidation is underway. The 16-20 index is rising support (currently $30ish.)
NEW/Feb03: The 16-20 index is breaking towards the buy signal. I expect the $29-30 level to be hit in the next few days and hold. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the drop then went on more than that and by mid-March, we see sub $27.0.
NEW/Feb09: So the 16-20 buy signal didn't stop the drop (expected). $28 is the next target. If the price gets there the 35-39 will sell and the path of trades will be cleared. In my opinion, this should lead to a sideways move ($26-30 range) until new signals are generated by the end of March.


GDXJ, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $34.69)
*comment/Jan27: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The first target at $41ish has been hit. Consolidation is underway. The 16-20 index is rising support (currently $38ish).
NEW/Feb03: The 16-20 index is breaking towards the buy signal. I expect the $34-35 level to be hit in the next few days and hold. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the drop then went on more than that and by mid-March, we see sub $33.0.
NEW/Feb09: So the 16-20 buy signal didn't stop the drop (expected) and now the 35-39 is breaking towards a sell signal. $33ish is the next target. If the price gets there the 35-39 will sell and the path of trades will be cleared. In my opinion, this should lead to a sideways move ($32-38 range) until new signals are generated by the end of March.
NEW/Feb15: The 35-39 sold. SKI configuration is now neutral. Support is around $33, and resistance is around $40.


GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 67 days, +4.45% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $170.75)
*comment/Dec31: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes have bought and are holding which implies that the bottom is in. We didn't get the weakness when needed for a transition to a true bull market. That setup is now gone. 16-20 and 35-39 signals are now in charge of what happens so let's wait and see how the situation develops. $168-170 is resistance, and $162 is support. The target on the upside is $176ish. Support is around $164.
NEW/Jan04: Today we hit the 50% Fibo of the whole 2020-2022 correction but momentum might carry us to $175-177 before a correction starts.
NEW/Jan13: The momentum did take us to the next target. Time for some consolidation. If the price keeps exploding like the last week I will not like it and might take some profit.
NEW/Jan20: The price keeps blowing through every resistance level. The next target is $185 ($2000+ spot). If we hit it quickly the 218-222 index will buy but I am afraid that this will be a signal for some serious correction before the bull resumes (down to $1850).
NEW/Jan27: The resistance level (218-222 index) is being hit. It should cause a consolidation/correction at least to touch the 16-20 index (currently $175ish).
NEW/Feb03: Finally the correction started but the severity of the breakdown doesn't look good. $170 now looks like a minimum target (done) but I wouldn't exclude visiting $166 ($1780ish spot) in the next few weeks. If the 35-39 index sells it will probably take months to build a new setup to buy it back. The price is probable to be stuck between rising support ($166 and rising) and horizontal resistance ($175ish) for months.


SLV, last signal 35-39 SELL, 7 days, -3.12% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.84)
*comment/Feb09: The SLV chart constellation is now neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish position but the rest is bearish, especially because the $21 level, which resisted the price advance before, has now been lost again. The momentum indicates that the 92-96 support will be tested ($19ish) so that is the target for now. It will take months to rebuild the bullish setup and the important condition is that the 92-96 index buy signal survives the test. The end of March looks like the decision time.


TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 5 days, -0.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $107.24)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TIPs I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).
NEW/Jan20: If I bought that 16-20 buy signal mentioned above I'd had taken a profit of around $109 and waited to see if the 92-96 buy signal is going to generate. Sideways to down movement in the next three weeks could lead to a powerful triple buy signal that would mean all clear for the gold bull to shift to a higher gear.
NEW/Jan27: A 35-39 index sell signal is approaching. This signal opens up a possibility for a double 35-39/92-96 index buy signal that would be very bullish. A sharp drop down to $106ish would open up the gate for a super bullish triple buy signal.
NEW/Feb01: The 35-39 index sold, as expected. This signal opens up a possibility for a double 35-39/92-96 index buy signal (see the post above).
NEW/Feb03: So far the drop is so strong that the potential for setting up a triple buy is becoming real. The other way to look at this is that the 35-39 and 92-96 are serious resistance levels that cannot be broken and the move will end up testing the bottom at $105. The latter is the less probable scenario IMO.
NEW/Feb09: Double 16-20/92-96 buy has been generated today and can be joined by 35-39 buy tomorrow for a triple buy. The structure is good and will become very good if we can sustain the current level for a few days. Let's see what happens. If we get a strong immediate move up maybe my expectation that the gold will be stuck in a sideways/down move for weeks is wrong.
NEW/Feb15: Triple buy has been generated. This signal is marking an important juncture (reread my comments above and also see my $TNX comment).


TLT, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 103.69/+2.07% or higher; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $101.59)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks). $101 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TLT I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).
NEW/Jan20: I was right about that 16-20 buy signal mentioned above. At this point, I would take the profit. A setup is now there to generate some truly bullish signals in the next two-three weeks.
NEW/Jan27: A 35-39 sell signal is approaching. If it happens it will open the door for a bullish double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. A sharp drop down to $99ish would create a condition for a super bullish triple buy signal.
NEW/Feb03: 92-96 finally bought but is probably marking the top. The support level is around $102 and should be tested soon. There is a high probability that tomorrow both 35-39 and 92-96 sell for a double sell signal. If this happens it is crucial that the $102 level holds or the drop could go and test the bottom at $92. If the $102 holds there is a possibility of a triple buy signal. There are too many possible outcomes so let's see what happens.
NEW/Feb08: The double sell mentioned in the previous post has been generated. Read the paragraph for the possible outcomes.
NEW/Feb09: The 16-20 crossed to BUY. If the price stays above $102.5ish for a few days the 35-39 and 92-96 buy will be generated for a triple buy. This is the most important chart to pay attention to at the moment. If this setup fails to propel the bonds up it will mark the breakdown and the bond yields could experience a sudden surge that will be very dangerous for the markets.
NEW/Feb15: Today the 92-96 index generated a signal fourth time in the last 10 days. This time a sell signal. That now opens the path and clears the xxing, therefore, setting up the stage for a possible true bull market signal in the next few days. I am not sure that this is what will happen but something extraordinary is going on. The 10yy is at the crucial level, the TIPs generated a triple buy signal, UUP recently ended the longest bull market in history, USERX is in a true bull market and approaching a 35-39 sell signal, junk bonds generated a true bull buy signal 2 weeks ago, S and P 500 the same...Everyone needs to pay attention right now!


UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, 20 days, -5.15% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.08)
*comment/Dec01: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support, and $35 is strong resistance.
NEW/Dec11: We are at significant support and the 218-222 index sold. I take that as a bearish sign. This signal is actionable (short side) but I would wait until two closes under $25 or a new 16-20 sell signal before a 218-222 buy signal.
NEW/Dec15: I was right not to go short last week. The 218-222 sell signal caused a short-term rally. If the 218-222 buys back everything will go back to neutral. Having said that, my statement from the last week stays firm, the 16-20 sell signal before the 218-222 buy signal is a selling point. Another selling point is two consecutive closes under $25.0.
NEW/Dec28: The signals are approaching. Let's see the order first and then decide what to do.
NEW/Jan20: So, the support at $25 held and the rebound generated a 35-39 buy signal which could be followed by a 92-96 buy signal. The downtrend line has been broken out and the chart is resolving in a bullish manner. If that is true and if the TLT chart generates a buy signal together with the S and P I will go long UCO.
NEW/Feb01: The SandP bought but the UCO is struggling to buy the 92-96. I am staying put, it is not clear what is happening with the oil market.
NEW/Feb03: Seems like support is breaking down but we have seen that three times already since Oct 2022. The pressure is to the downside.


URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, 25 days, +1.04% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.25)
*comment/Dec16: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 sold too for a double sell signal. That seems dangerous. The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.
NEW/Jan13: A true 35-39 signal has been generated. If the 92-96 buys the structure might turn bullish but for now, I am just watching. $23 is the most important resistance level. $18.0 is the support level.
NEW/Jan20: Like many other charts the URA is working towards a bullish resolution. The reason that I didn't trust the 92-96 buy signal in October is now behind us, the price rose above $22. If a 92-96 buy signal can be generated above $23 the whole chart will turn very bullish. I have a bunch of U positions that I bought back in 2021 when the URA price was at $18ish so I am just watching.
NEW/Feb01: The 92-96 bought and at the same time the resistance line is being broken through. If the price can stay above $23 for a few more days we have a breakout.
NEW/Feb03: So the price couldn't stay above the $23 level for more than a day. We are back inside the trading range of the last 10 months ($18-$22). Let's see if the 92-96 buy signal can hold up and give the price a chance for another try at the breakout.


USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 30 days,
-6.95%; run pattern in-progress 1D/1U/+0.53%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 crossed to SELL/35-39 to BUY 9.81/+3.26% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.5)
*comment/Jan04: USERX true bull signal has been generated. Notice how today's close was exactly on $10.28 the mega-important level that I have been talking about for the last 10 months (thank you Jeff for pointing this out). Every important move since 2008 has started or stopped at this level. Simultaneously with generating this 92-96 signal and breaking the $10.28 level the price closed above the 200 days MAV for the first time since May 2022. Also, the MACD crossed over today. This all looks very bullish. The first target is $10.78 then $11.56 then $12.33. The short-term support is around 9.5ish.
NEW/Jan06: The price surged above $10.28. That is an important milestone. If in the next few days, the price hits 10.78 I expect some consolidation/correction to take place.
NEW/Jan13: We are very close to that $10.78 target. Some consolidation is in order.
NEW/Jan20: The consolidation is in progress. The 16-20 support is currently at $10ish and rising. The $10.28 important level is being tested from above and holding so far. I expect probably one more test before we are headed towards $10.78 and above ($11.56 next, then $12.33).
NEW/Feb01: So, we got that test of the $10.28 level again and it seems it has held. Now we need the rise over $10.71 for a new leg up to start.
NEW/Feb03: The $10.28 level didn't hold as I incorrectly guessed in the post above, I was wrong. I do not like the way that the price collapsed on Friday because it looks like the rejection of the $10.28 and possibly a signal of a further downside (9.3ish?). If the 35-39 index sells I am guessing that either we quickly sell the 92-96 too or we enter a long period of consolidation between $9.4 and $10.20. I think that the latter is more probable. Seems like the price got too far too quickly and needs a period of cooling down. Climbing a wall of worry is more appropriate for this stage in the bull market than the rapid acceleration that we got and I was worried about it in my GLD analysis.
NEW/Feb16: 35-39 sell signal has been generated. It should mark a low at least short-term. This is not how a bull market should start off but it is what it is. It is all about the $10.28 level and for now, it is resistance. We will not see a big move until that level is broken through properly. I suspect that will not happen at least in the next 6 weeks. The very-long term support is around $8.4-8.6 but if we get there the bull signal will end.


Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 76 days, +24.59% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $6146)
*comment/Feb01: The XGD chart configuration is bullish. The 16-20 index is being hit and we could expect support to kick in soon. For a new leg up $6800 needs to be broken out. I am 80% long.
NEW/Feb03: Based on the USA gold market I guess we are going to hit the $6000 support this week and probably sell the 35-39 buy signal but what then? Given the current 'risk on' hype probably a correction to $5500ish over the next few months. I have hedged 20% of my position on Fri by shorting NCM and NST. Will keep trailing stops on these for a while and probably add on bounces. My main account is still 80% long.
NEW/Feb08: So, my NCM hedge didn't work well but NST is fine for now. I'll cover it at around $11.5 if we get there. Still 80% long in my trading acc.
NEW/Feb15: Covered my hedge today.