USERX
USERX long indices
XGD.AX
Tuesday 28 February 2023
Monday 27 February 2023
Saturday 25 February 2023
The State Of Indices
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, -2.23% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $3970)
*Comment/Feb01: SandP is in a bullish configuration. The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated and is holding (joined today with a 35-39 buy signal). The 36-month MAV sell signal (crash indicator) has failed again. I am now long this market ($4100 entry). No stop loss for now but will consider closing the position if the price closes below 3990 two days in a row.New/Feb24: Here we are testing the breakout point at $4000. Today was the first close under $3990. I am holding for now.
HUI, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days -3.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $213.85)
*comment/Feb17: HUI SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trade is now clear.
The secondary target ($220-225) has been hit today. This level needs to hold (expected, there is an important uptrend line going back to the 2018 low), otherwise, things will start looking dangerous for the 92-96 buy signal. This 35-39 sell signal will most probably lead to a couple of months of sideways/down move probably into late April. If we haven't seen the end of the correction yet the next support level is $200ish and then the ultimate 'must not be broken' support at $180. The 92-96 index back prices will start rising soon and the 218-222 prices will start falling soon. By the end of April, they will cross at around $230ish. I think that this cross is marking an important juncture that will act as a magnet. Going into May the price will need to be above this level ($230ish) in order for the bull market to survive.
NEW/Feb24: Contrary to my expectation, the 35-39 sell signal didn't stop the fall. Daily indicators are in deeply oversold territory, so $211.89 should provide support (initial peak out of the September bottom). I am not so sure about my range trading thesis anymore. The way the price behaves, it is more likely that the $220-225 level has now become firm resistance, and we will see a small recovery to hit this level and then another leg down to form the bottom sometime in March-April. This scenario would reset the SKI configuration and potentially generate a 92-96 index sell signal. The key in the next two weeks will be how the price behaves around $225 (if it gets there).
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 20 days,
-1.62% (also, 16-20 to BUY 11911/-0.48 or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $11969)
*comment/Feb01: The chart is transitioning to a bullish configuration. The resistance level at $12K has been broken out. The 92-96 index bought for a double buy with the 35-39 index which is on the path of trades. We could see a run to the $13.5K level quickly. Selling the 35-39 index in the next two weeks (below $11.5K) would be a problem.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 27 days, +1.95% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY>>to SELL2001/+5.87% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1890)
*comment/Feb01: The SKI configuration is bullish. The double 35-39/92-96 signal was generated and it is holding. The bearish trendline is already broken out and it all seems bullish. I am looking for a long entry.
NEW/Feb24: 16-20 bought. I will enter a small long position (with very tight stops) on Monday if the price falls in the Asian session and reverses in the USA.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 10 days, +7.39% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.92%)
*comment/Feb01: The 10yy is in a bull market but it is in a late stage and everything is set to end soon. 3.375% is an important support level and if broken down we could see a quick drop down to 2.8%ish. If that doesn't happen we could see a trading range between 3.4% and 3.9% for a while. To avoid the end of the bull market a sharp rally needs to start at once and replicate the run that we have seen between the Aug and Nov 2022 (not expected).
NEW/Feb03: The 92-96 true bull signal finally ended, after 307 days and a 117% rise. The important 3.375% level is held for now but the 92-96 sell is implying that it will give up support soon. If a rally happens in the next few weeks (expected) and the 92-96 buys back I'd guess that 3.9% is a firm resistance and the 92-96 will not last long.
NEW/Feb08: 35-39 bought back simultaneously with 16-20 selling. These kinds of synchronous signals tend to mark tops. We will see. The traditional TA resistance line hasn't been broken yet. The 92-96 index might buy back too but that buy probably will not last. This rise was expected but now I do expect the signals to fail. If not 3.9% is the battleground to decide if the bull is going to reinstate itself or not.
NEW/Feb15: So far, since the 92-96 index ended the bull market signal everything is happening exactly as I expected (read the comments above). Today the 92-96 bought back and the price is approaching the 3.9% level that I mentioned before. This area will be the battleground between bulls and bears for who will have command over the next few months. My bias is that the bears will eventually prevail but for now all seems like the bulls are in control. Rising 10yy is in opposition to the rising SandP 500 and one or the other will need to give up soon. Either that or the economy is really booming and they can rise together.
NEW/Feb24: So far the rate of ascend equals that one from September 2022 to October 2022 top. If it keeps up for another two weeks the 10yy will reach the old peak of 4.2%. 3.9% is still holding and the battle is not finished yet.
XAU, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, -3.88% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $111.84)
*comment/Feb17: XAU SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trades is now clear. The life run low has marked the exact bottom.
The target ($115) has been hit today. For now, the 92-96 buy signal is not in danger. This 35-39 sell signal will most probably lead to a couple of months of sideways/down move probably into late April. If we haven't seen the end of the correction yet the next support level is $112 then $105 and then the ultimate 'must not be broken' support at $92-95. Similar to HUI May looks like an important juncture. Going into May the price will need to be above $125 for the bulls to be in charge.
New/Feb24: We have reached that next support level at $112.5, mentioned above. Daily indicators are deep in oversold territory and a bounce is expected. I am not so sure about my range trading thesis anymore (see my HUI comment).
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 34 days,
-10.49% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 crossed to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.0)
*comment/Jan06: 92-96 generated a true buy signal together with the $15 resistance being smashed through. Very bullish. Targets $16.5-17.0 (done) then $18.7 then $23.
NEW/Feb03: We have seen the top for now ($16.89). Time to find the support level. $15.0 is the first line of support, then $14.0-14.5.
NEW/Feb09: Here we are at the first support level. Regarding the gold market the ASA SKI chart has given the most accurate SKI signals in the last 24 months. Today the ASA chart executed the 16-20 and the 660-664 buy signals simultaneously. What is it marking I am not sure but it has to be either the short-term bottom or the acceleration to the downside? For now, the bull market is not in danger but the 16-20 index needs to sell before the 35-39 index in order to maintain the medium-term upside pressure (it is warranted that one of these two signals will be the next one to generate). My opinion, based on the momentum and the severity of the breakdown is that we will go further down until the 35-39 index sells first. Such a drop will demoralize the majority of the gold bulls and it will take a month or two to build a setup for a new leg up. If I am right then the bullish move is postponed probably till the end of March or even April. If I am wrong the price will be back at the $17 level in the next 7 days.
NEW/Feb24: The above-mentioned 35-39 sell signal has been generated today. This was expected (read comments above). The signal generation coincided with a touch/break of two support lines and a price pattern that could mark a low (1u5d). If this is the bottom, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern will start emerging. This pattern will have a neckline at around $17, and if the pattern comes out symmetrical, this level ($17) should be hit at the beginning of April. This would fit with my old thesis of a range-bound move ($14-$17) until May, but I am not so sure of it anymore (see my comment on USERX). It is worth mentioning again that during the last two years, ASA had the most accurate signals in the gold sector. Let's see what happens.
Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 40 days, +8.96% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $23087
*comment/Feb01: BTC is in a bullish configuration but it needs more time to consolidate. The 218-222 bought back which is bullish, now it needs to hold. $25K is the resistance. If I bought the 35-39 signal (as I was thinking at the time) I would sell at $25K and then look to buy back after a correction.
NEW/Feb15: It seems like the correction is over and BTC is going to break through the 25K and hit 28K soon. I would still sell some at 25K.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 74 days, +11.75% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $36.72)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not sure of the long-term implications of the recent SKI signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Jan13: Today we hit $41.0 which is above the $38 target that I used to mention in my December blogs. The action looks like a breakout above an important resistance so, considering the bullish SKI structure I think it is time to start looking for a long entry. I expect the test of $38 breakout and will be looking to go long around there.
NEW/Feb03: The correction is in progress so I am looking at that $37-38 level to hold in order to go long.
NEW/Feb24: The $37-38 is breaking down, not time to buy.
DXY (dollar index), 35-39 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $105.26)
*comment/Dec15: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is turning bearish. My target at 103 was hit today and should represent support. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last defence before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish) which should be used to start shorting.
NEW/Dec31: The SKI structure is now outright bearish. So far no strength has been shown in order to sell the 16-20 index. The $103 critical level is being hit again. It needs to hold or $100 becomes the target.
NEW/Jan04: $103 holding so far. I am still looking for that $106 target to be hit.
NEW/Jan06: The 16-20 index strongly rejected the rise after $106 was approached. Seems like $103 will be tested again and if it doesn't hold the next target is $100.
NEW/Jan13: $103 didn't hold so I expect the 218-222 index, the last remaining piece of the bull market, to be tested soon ($100-101 currently and rising). The end of the month looks like the decision time.
NEW/Jan20: Since my last comment DXY continued its slow decline towards the 218-222 index. The touch/break of it will probably mark some kind of a low but the SKI structure is now deep in the bear territory and I expect this index to sell soon and DXY to fall down to $99 (in a couple of months).
NEW/Feb03: The touch of the 218-222 index caused an instant strong move up, as expected. Now, the question is how far this rally can go. I think no more than $105 and then down to sell the 218-222. The long-term resistance level is now around $109 and falling. For the next few months, the price should oscillate between this recent low ($101) and that falling resistance.
NEW/Feb24: Here we are at the important $105 level and the 35-39 index generated a buy signal. Looks bullish for now. $106.17 should be resistance. If not the price is going straight to $107 to test the major resistance.
GDX, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, -3.98% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $26.99)
*comment/Feb17: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish.
The target of $28 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In my opinion, this should lead to a sideways/down move ($26-32 range) until new signals are generated. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $32 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $25-26 and rising.
GDXJ, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, -4.79% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $33.03)
*comment/Feb17: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The path of trades has been cleared. In my opinion, this should lead to a sideways/down move ($32-40 range) until new signals are generated. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $39 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $32-34 and rising.
GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 72 days, +2.98% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 168.88/+0.3% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $168.35)
*comment/Dec31: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes have bought and are holding which implies that the bottom is in. We didn't get the weakness when needed for a transition to a true bull market. That setup is now gone. 16-20 and 35-39 signals are now in charge of what happens so let's wait and see how the situation develops. $168-170 is resistance, and $162 is support. The target on the upside is $176ish. Support is around $164.
NEW/Jan04: Today we hit the 50% Fibo of the whole 2020-2022 correction but momentum might carry us to $175-177 before a correction starts.
NEW/Jan13: The momentum did take us to the next target. Time for some consolidation. If the price keeps exploding like the last week I will not like it and might take some profit.
NEW/Jan20: The price keeps blowing through every resistance level. The next target is $185 ($2000+ spot). If we hit it quickly the 218-222 index will buy but I am afraid that this will be a signal for some serious correction before the bull resumes (down to $1850).
NEW/Jan27: The resistance level (218-222 index) is being hit. It should cause a consolidation/correction at least to touch the 16-20 index (currently $175ish).
NEW/Feb03: Finally the correction started but the severity of the breakdown doesn't look good. $170 now looks like a minimum target (done) but I wouldn't exclude visiting $166 ($1780ish spot) in the next few weeks. If the 35-39 index sells it will probably take months to build a new setup to buy it back. The price is probable to be stuck between rising support ($166, $1780 spot) and horizontal resistance ($175ish, $1950 spot) for months.
SLV, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -6.79% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.09)
*comment/Feb09: The SLV chart constellation is now neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish position but the rest is bearish, especially because the $21 level, which resisted the price advance before, has now been lost again. The momentum indicates that the 92-96 support will be tested ($19ish) so that is the target for now. It will take months to rebuild the bullish setup and the important condition is that the 92-96 index buy signal survives the test. The end of March looks like the decision time.
NEW/Feb24: The target has been hit ($19) but there are no signs of a slowdown. The 92-96 index buy signal is still holding. $18 might be where the bottom is found.
TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 10 days, -1.04% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $106.56)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TIPs I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).
NEW/Jan20: If I bought that 16-20 buy signal mentioned above I'd had taken a profit of around $109 and waited to see if the 92-96 buy signal is going to generate. Sideways to down movement in the next three weeks could lead to a powerful triple buy signal that would mean all clear for the gold bull to shift to a higher gear.
NEW/Jan27: A 35-39 index sell signal is approaching. This signal opens up a possibility for a double 35-39/92-96 index buy signal that would be very bullish. A sharp drop down to $106ish would open up the gate for a super bullish triple buy signal.
NEW/Feb01: The 35-39 index sold, as expected. This signal opens up a possibility for a double 35-39/92-96 index buy signal (see the post above).
NEW/Feb03: So far the drop is so strong that the potential for setting up a triple buy is becoming real. The other way to look at this is that the 35-39 and 92-96 are serious resistance levels that cannot be broken and the move will end up testing the bottom at $105. The latter is the less probable scenario IMO.
NEW/Feb09: Double 16-20/92-96 buy has been generated today and can be joined by 35-39 buy tomorrow for a triple buy. The structure is good and will become very good if we can sustain the current level for a few days. Let's see what happens. If we get a strong immediate move up maybe my expectation that the gold will be stuck in a sideways/down move for weeks is wrong.
NEW/Feb15: Triple buy has been generated. This signal is marking an important juncture (reread my comments above and also see my $TNX comment).
NEW/Feb24: The triple buy is still alive but the price action is not healthy. A 16-20 sell should be the first signal after the triple buy but it seems it will be the 35-39 sell. Not great.
TLT, 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 to NOT BUY 99.86/-.1% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $100.97)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks). $101 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TLT I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).
NEW/Jan20: I was right about that 16-20 buy signal mentioned above. At this point, I would take the profit. A setup is now there to generate some truly bullish signals in the next two-three weeks.
NEW/Jan27: A 35-39 sell signal is approaching. If it happens it will open the door for a bullish double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. A sharp drop down to $99ish would create a condition for a super bullish triple buy signal.
NEW/Feb03: 92-96 finally bought but is probably marking the top. The support level is around $102 and should be tested soon. There is a high probability that tomorrow both 35-39 and 92-96 sell for a double sell signal. If this happens it is crucial that the $102 level holds or the drop could go and test the bottom at $92. If the $102 holds there is a possibility of a triple buy signal. There are too many possible outcomes so let's see what happens.
NEW/Feb08: The double sell mentioned in the previous post has been generated. Read the paragraph for the possible outcomes.
NEW/Feb09: The 16-20 crossed to BUY. If the price stays above $102.5ish for a few days the 35-39 and 92-96 buy will be generated for a triple buy. This is the most important chart to pay attention to at the moment. If this setup fails to propel the bonds up it will mark the breakdown and the bond yields could experience a sudden surge that will be very dangerous for the markets.
NEW/Feb15: Today the 92-96 index generated a signal fourth time in the last 10 days. This time a sell signal. That now opens the path and clears the xxing, therefore, setting up the stage for a possible true bull market signal in the next few days. I am not sure that this is what will happen but something extraordinary is going on. The 10yy is at the crucial level, the TIPs generated a triple buy signal, UUP recently ended the longest bull market in history, USERX is in a true bull market and approaching a 35-39 sell signal, junk bonds generated a true bull buy signal 2 weeks ago, S and P 500 the same...Everyone needs to pay attention right now!
NEW/Feb16: Today's action looks like TLT is breaking down. This is opposite to SPX, TIPs and gold setup. Let's see who prevails.
NEW/Feb24: The 35-39 bought and the 92-96 could buy tomorrow. The problem is the 35-39 buy should have happened sooner therefore there is a good chance it will sell soon. That ruins a potential double buy signal but if it is followed by a 92-96 buy that buy would be on the path and not xxed and with a solid configuration. This is fascinating to watch. For now, the action seems bearish for everything except the dollar.
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, +6.4% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.42)
*comment/Feb17: The price is ranging inside a horizontal contracting triangle since Aug 2022, therefore, producing a series of false signals and making it hard to decide if the setup is bullish or bearish. The triangle apex is positioned in March (22nd, $29ish) and by then a strong move up or down should start. The current resistance is $31ish and falling and the current support is $28ish and rising. Watch for these levels to be broken for a clue of the next move.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, 30 days, -4.81% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.96)
*comment/Dec16: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 sold too for a double sell signal. That seems dangerous. The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.
NEW/Jan13: A true 35-39 signal has been generated. If the 92-96 buys the structure might turn bullish but for now, I am just watching. $23 is the most important resistance level. $18.0 is the support level.
NEW/Jan20: Like many other charts the URA is working towards a bullish resolution. The reason that I didn't trust the 92-96 buy signal in October is now behind us, the price rose above $22. If a 92-96 buy signal can be generated above $23 the whole chart will turn very bullish. I have a bunch of U positions that I bought back in 2021 when the URA price was at $18ish so I am just watching.
NEW/Feb01: The 92-96 bought and at the same time the resistance line is being broken through. If the price can stay above $23 for a few more days we have a breakout.
NEW/Feb03: So the price couldn't stay above the $23 level for more than a day. We are back inside the trading range of the last 10 months ($18-$22). Let's see if the 92-96 buy signal can hold up and give the price a chance for another try at the breakout.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 35 days,
-10.87%; run pattern in-progress 2U/4D/-0.86%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 8.68/-4.62% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.1)
*comment/Jan04: USERX true bull signal has been generated. Notice how today's close was exactly on $10.28 the mega-important level that I have been talking about for the last 10 months (thank you Jeff for pointing this out). Every important move since 2008 has started or stopped at this level. Simultaneously with generating this 92-96 signal and breaking the $10.28 level the price closed above the 200 days MAV for the first time since May 2022. Also, the MACD crossed over today. This all looks very bullish. The first target is $10.78 then $11.56 then $12.33. The short-term support is around 9.5ish.
NEW/Jan06: The price surged above $10.28. That is an important milestone. If in the next few days, the price hits 10.78 I expect some consolidation/correction to take place.
NEW/Jan13: We are very close to that $10.78 target. Some consolidation is in order.
NEW/Jan20: The consolidation is in progress. The 16-20 support is currently at $10ish and rising. The $10.28 important level is being tested from above and holding so far. I expect probably one more test before we are headed towards $10.78 and above ($11.56 next, then $12.33).
NEW/Feb01: So, we got that test of the $10.28 level again and it seems it has held. Now we need the rise over $10.71 for a new leg up to start.
NEW/Feb03: The $10.28 level didn't hold as I incorrectly guessed in the post above, I was wrong. I do not like the way that the price collapsed on Friday because it looks like the rejection of the $10.28 and possibly a signal of a further downside (9.3ish?). If the 35-39 index sells I am guessing that either we quickly sell the 92-96 too or we enter a long period of consolidation between $9.4 and $10.20. I think that the latter is more probable. Seems like the price got too far too quickly and needs a period of cooling down. Climbing a wall of worry is more appropriate for this stage in the bull market than the rapid acceleration that we got and I was worried about it in my GLD analysis.
NEW/Feb16: 35-39 sell signal has been generated. It should mark a low at least short-term. This is not how a bull market should start off but it is what it is. It is all about the $10.28 level and for now, it is resistance. We will not see a big move until that level is broken through properly. I suspect that will not happen at least in the next 6 weeks. The very-long term support is around $8.4-8.6 but if we get there the bull signal will end.
NEW/Feb17: Just an observation regarding yesterday's post, the 92-96 index future prices cross above $10.28 at the beginning of May. So, if the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive then from May 2023 the bull market should be in a full swing.
NEW/Feb24: Contrary to my expectation, the 35-39 sell signal didn't stop the fall, not for a second. Daily indicators are in deeply oversold territory, so we should experience a bounce soon. A bottom at the current level would play like a right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern similar to what we see in the ASA chart. That would be quite convenient and prove my range trading thesis from earlier this month correct. Now I am thinking that would be too easy. The problem is the 10-year yield, which is sharply rising and could interfere with this scenario. The alternative bullish scenario is a sudden 6-7% collapse into the $8-8.5 area to reset the 92-96 bull market but create a 'life-run' bottom similar to what XAU did in October 2022. This would be very difficult to swallow for the majority of gold bulls (therefore it would be a decent buying opportunity). The bearish scenario is to keep bleeding and eventually break down the long-term support around $8.0.
Australian XGD, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $5794)
*comment/Feb01: The XGD chart configuration is bullish. The 16-20 index is being hit and we could expect support to kick in soon. For a new leg up $6800 needs to be broken out. I am 80% long.
NEW/Feb03: Based on the USA gold market I guess we are going to hit the $6000 support this week and probably sell the 35-39 buy signal but what then? Given the current 'risk on' hype probably a correction to $5500ish over the next few months. I have hedged 20% of my position on Fri by shorting NCM and NST. Will keep trailing stops on these for a while and probably add on bounces. My main account is still 80% long.
NEW/Feb08: So, my NCM hedge didn't work well but NST is fine for now. I'll cover it at around $11.5 if we get there. Still 80% long in my trading acc.
NEW/Feb15: Covered my hedge today.
NEW/Feb24: 35-39 sold as I expected above. The question stays, what now? I still think down to $5500ish (and probably sell the 92-96) at some stage in the next 4-5 weeks but first a bounce. $6000 is now resistance. If it can be broken through and held maybe it is not all that bad. In that case, a new 35-39 buy signal would be buyable and should mark a new leg up (in May 2023).
I will be looking to reduce or hedge my position on up days. 80% long.
Friday 24 February 2023
Wednesday 22 February 2023
Monday 20 February 2023
Saturday 18 February 2023
The State Of Indices
SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, +0.46% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $4079)
*Comment/Feb01: SandP is in a bullish configuration. The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated and is holding (joined today with a 35-39 buy signal). The 36-month MAV sell signal (crash indicator) has failed again. I am now long this market ($4100 entry). No stop loss for now but will consider closing the position if the price closes below 3990 two days in a row.HUI, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $224.36)
*comment/Feb17: HUI SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trade is now clear.
The secondary target ($220-225) has been hit today. This level needs to hold (expected, there is an important uptrend line going back to the 2018 low), otherwise, things will start looking dangerous for the 92-96 buy signal. This 35-39 sell signal will most probably lead to a couple of months of sideways/down move probably into late April. If we haven't seen the end of the correction yet the next support level is $200ish and then the ultimate 'must not be broken' support at $180. The 92-96 index back prices will start rising soon and the 218-222 prices will start falling soon. By the end of April, they will cross at around $230ish. I think that this cross is marking an important juncture that will act as a magnet. Going into May the price will need to be above this level ($230ish) in order for the bull market to survive.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 16 days, +1.57% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $12358)
*comment/Feb01: The chart is transitioning to a bullish configuration. The resistance level at $12K has been broken out. The 92-96 index bought for a double buy with the 35-39 index which is on the path of trades. We could see a run to the $13.5K level quickly. Selling the 35-39 index in the next two weeks (below $11.5K) would be a problem.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 23 days, +4.96% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1946)
*comment/Feb01: The SKI configuration is bullish. The double 35-39/92-96 signal was generated and it is holding. The bearish trendline is already broken out and it all seems bullish. I am looking for a long entry.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 8 days, +4.79% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.83%)
*comment/Feb01: The 10yy is in a bull market but it is in a late stage and everything is set to end soon. 3.375% is an important support level and if broken down we could see a quick drop down to 2.8%ish. If that doesn't happen we could see a trading range between 3.4% and 3.9% for a while. To avoid the end of the bull market a sharp rally needs to start at once and replicate the run that we have seen between the Aug and Nov 2022 (not expected).
NEW/Feb03: The 92-96 true bull signal finally ended, after 307 days and a 117% rise. The important 3.375% level is held for now but the 92-96 sell is implying that it will give up support soon. If a rally happens in the next few weeks (expected) and the 92-96 buys back I'd guess that 3.9% is a firm resistance and the 92-96 will not last long.
NEW/Feb08: 35-39 bought back simultaneously with 16-20 selling. These kinds of synchronous signals tend to mark tops. We will see. The traditional TA resistance line hasn't been broken yet. The 92-96 index might buy back too but that buy probably will not last. This rise was expected but now I do expect the signals to fail. If not 3.9% is the battleground to decide if the bull is going to reinstate itself or not.
NEW/Feb15: So far, since the 92-96 index ended the bull market signal everything is happening exactly as I expected (read the comments above). Today the 92-96 bought back and the price is approaching the 3.9% level that I mentioned before. This area will be the battleground between bulls and bears for who will have command over the next few months. My bias is that the bears will eventually prevail but for now all seems like the bulls are in control. Rising 10yy is in opposition to the rising SandP 500 and one or the other will need to give up soon. Either that or the economy is really booming and they can rise together.
XAU, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $117.64)
*comment/Feb17: XAU SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trades is now clear. The life run low has marked the exact bottom.
The target ($115) has been hit today. For now, the 92-96 buy signal is not in danger. This 35-39 sell signal will most probably lead to a couple of months of sideways/down move probably into late April. If we haven't seen the end of the correction yet the next support level is $112 then $105 and then the ultimate 'must not be broken' support at $92-95. Similar to HUI May looks like an important juncture. Going into May the price will need to be above $125 for the bulls to be in charge.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 30 days, -5.95% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.71)
*comment/Jan06: 92-96 generated a true buy signal together with the $15 resistance being smashed through. Very bullish. Targets $16.5-17.0 (done) then $18.7 then $23.
NEW/Feb03: We have seen the top for now ($16.89). Time to find the support level. $15.0 is the first line of support, then $14.0-14.5.
NEW/Feb09: Here we are at the first support level. Regarding the gold market the ASA SKI chart has given the most accurate SKI signals in the last 12 months. Today the ASA chart executed the 16-20 and the 660-664 buy signals simultaneously. What is it marking I am not sure but it has to be either the short-term bottom or the acceleration to the downside? For now, the bull market is not in danger but the 16-20 index needs to sell before the 35-39 index in order to maintain the medium-term upside pressure (it is warranted that one of these two signals will be the next one to generate). My opinion, based on the momentum and the severity of the breakdown is that we will go further down until the 35-39 index sells first. Such a drop will demoralize the majority of the gold bulls and it will take a month or two to build a setup for a new leg up. If I am right then the bullish move is postponed probably till the end of March or even April. If I am wrong the price will be back at the $17 level in the next 7 days.
Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 33 days, +15.99% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $24576
*comment/Feb01: BTC is in a bullish configuration but it needs more time to consolidate. The 218-222 bought back which is bullish, now it needs to hold. $25K is the resistance. If I bought the 35-39 signal (as I was thinking at the time) I would sell at $25K and then look to buy back after a correction.
NEW/Feb15: It seems like the correction is over and BTC is going to break through the 25K and hit 28K soon. I would still sell some at 25K.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 70 days, +19.26% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $39.19)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not sure of the long-term implications of the recent SKI signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Jan13: Today we hit $41.0 which is above the $38 target that I used to mention in my December blogs. The action looks like a breakout above an important resistance so, considering the bullish SKI structure I think it is time to start looking for a long entry. I expect the test of $38 breakout and will be looking to go long around there.
NEW/Feb03: The correction is in progress so I am looking at that $37-38 level to hold in order to go long.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 53 days,
-0.6% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $103.88)
*comment/Dec15: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is turning bearish. My target at 103 was hit today and should represent support. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last defence before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish) which should be used to start shorting.
NEW/Dec31: The SKI structure is now outright bearish. So far no strength has been shown in order to sell the 16-20 index. The $103 critical level is being hit again. It needs to hold or $100 becomes the target.
NEW/Jan04: $103 holding so far. I am still looking for that $106 target to be hit.
NEW/Jan06: The 16-20 index strongly rejected the rise after $106 was approached. Seems like $103 will be tested again and if it doesn't hold the next target is $100.
NEW/Jan13: $103 didn't hold so I expect the 218-222 index, the last remaining piece of the bull market, to be tested soon ($100-101 currently and rising). The end of the month looks like the decision time.
NEW/Jan20: Since my last comment DXY continued its slow decline towards the 218-222 index. The touch/break of it will probably mark some kind of a low but the SKI structure is now deep in the bear territory and I expect this index to sell soon and DXY to fall down to $99 (in a couple of months).
NEW/Feb03: The touch of the 218-222 index caused an instant strong move up, as expected. Now, the question is how far this rally can go. I think no more than $105 and then down to sell the 218-222. The long-term resistance level is now around $109 and falling. For the next few months, the price should oscillate between this recent low ($101) and that falling resistance.
GDX, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 29.61/+4.22% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.41)
*comment/Feb17: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish.
The target of $28 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In my opinion, this should lead to a sideways/down move ($26-32 range) until new signals are generated. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $32 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $25-26 and rising.
GDXJ, last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, -0.29% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $34.59)
*comment/Feb17: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The path of trades has been cleared. In my opinion, this should lead to a sideways/down move ($32-40 range) until new signals are generated. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $39 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $32-34 and rising.
GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 68 days, +4.76% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $171.26)
*comment/Dec31: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes have bought and are holding which implies that the bottom is in. We didn't get the weakness when needed for a transition to a true bull market. That setup is now gone. 16-20 and 35-39 signals are now in charge of what happens so let's wait and see how the situation develops. $168-170 is resistance, and $162 is support. The target on the upside is $176ish. Support is around $164.
NEW/Jan04: Today we hit the 50% Fibo of the whole 2020-2022 correction but momentum might carry us to $175-177 before a correction starts.
NEW/Jan13: The momentum did take us to the next target. Time for some consolidation. If the price keeps exploding like the last week I will not like it and might take some profit.
NEW/Jan20: The price keeps blowing through every resistance level. The next target is $185 ($2000+ spot). If we hit it quickly the 218-222 index will buy but I am afraid that this will be a signal for some serious correction before the bull resumes (down to $1850).
NEW/Jan27: The resistance level (218-222 index) is being hit. It should cause a consolidation/correction at least to touch the 16-20 index (currently $175ish).
NEW/Feb03: Finally the correction started but the severity of the breakdown doesn't look good. $170 now looks like a minimum target (done) but I wouldn't exclude visiting $166 ($1780ish spot) in the next few weeks. If the 35-39 index sells it will probably take months to build a new setup to buy it back. The price is probable to be stuck between rising support ($166, $1780 spot) and horizontal resistance ($175ish, $1950 spot) for months.
SLV, last signal 35-39 SELL, 8 days, -2.29% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.01)
*comment/Feb09: The SLV chart constellation is now neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish position but the rest is bearish, especially because the $21 level, which resisted the price advance before, has now been lost again. The momentum indicates that the 92-96 support will be tested ($19ish) so that is the target for now. It will take months to rebuild the bullish setup and the important condition is that the 92-96 index buy signal survives the test. The end of March looks like the decision time.
TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, -0.21% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $107.45)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TIPs I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).
NEW/Jan20: If I bought that 16-20 buy signal mentioned above I'd had taken a profit of around $109 and waited to see if the 92-96 buy signal is going to generate. Sideways to down movement in the next three weeks could lead to a powerful triple buy signal that would mean all clear for the gold bull to shift to a higher gear.
NEW/Jan27: A 35-39 index sell signal is approaching. This signal opens up a possibility for a double 35-39/92-96 index buy signal that would be very bullish. A sharp drop down to $106ish would open up the gate for a super bullish triple buy signal.
NEW/Feb01: The 35-39 index sold, as expected. This signal opens up a possibility for a double 35-39/92-96 index buy signal (see the post above).
NEW/Feb03: So far the drop is so strong that the potential for setting up a triple buy is becoming real. The other way to look at this is that the 35-39 and 92-96 are serious resistance levels that cannot be broken and the move will end up testing the bottom at $105. The latter is the less probable scenario IMO.
NEW/Feb09: Double 16-20/92-96 buy has been generated today and can be joined by 35-39 buy tomorrow for a triple buy. The structure is good and will become very good if we can sustain the current level for a few days. Let's see what happens. If we get a strong immediate move up maybe my expectation that the gold will be stuck in a sideways/down move for weeks is wrong.
NEW/Feb15: Triple buy has been generated. This signal is marking an important juncture (reread my comments above and also see my $TNX comment).
TLT, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, +0.78% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT BUY 102.16/-0.21% or lower; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.38)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks). $101 should act as support.
NEW/Dec28: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. If I was trading TLT I'd probably go long this signal (35-39 sell as a stop loss).
NEW/Jan20: I was right about that 16-20 buy signal mentioned above. At this point, I would take the profit. A setup is now there to generate some truly bullish signals in the next two-three weeks.
NEW/Jan27: A 35-39 sell signal is approaching. If it happens it will open the door for a bullish double 35-39/92-96 buy signal. A sharp drop down to $99ish would create a condition for a super bullish triple buy signal.
NEW/Feb03: 92-96 finally bought but is probably marking the top. The support level is around $102 and should be tested soon. There is a high probability that tomorrow both 35-39 and 92-96 sell for a double sell signal. If this happens it is crucial that the $102 level holds or the drop could go and test the bottom at $92. If the $102 holds there is a possibility of a triple buy signal. There are too many possible outcomes so let's see what happens.
NEW/Feb08: The double sell mentioned in the previous post has been generated. Read the paragraph for the possible outcomes.
NEW/Feb09: The 16-20 crossed to BUY. If the price stays above $102.5ish for a few days the 35-39 and 92-96 buy will be generated for a triple buy. This is the most important chart to pay attention to at the moment. If this setup fails to propel the bonds up it will mark the breakdown and the bond yields could experience a sudden surge that will be very dangerous for the markets.
NEW/Feb15: Today the 92-96 index generated a signal fourth time in the last 10 days. This time a sell signal. That now opens the path and clears the xxing, therefore, setting up the stage for a possible true bull market signal in the next few days. I am not sure that this is what will happen but something extraordinary is going on. The 10yy is at the crucial level, the TIPs generated a triple buy signal, UUP recently ended the longest bull market in history, USERX is in a true bull market and approaching a 35-39 sell signal, junk bonds generated a true bull buy signal 2 weeks ago, S and P 500 the same...Everyone needs to pay attention right now!
NEW/Feb16: Today's action looks like TLT is breaking down. This is opposite to SPX, TIPs and gold setup. Let's see who prevails.
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, 22 days, -10.67% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 29.1/+6.24% or higher; 92-96 to NOT SELL 30.06/+9.75% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.39)
*comment/Feb17: The price is ranging inside a horizontal contracting triangle since Aug 2022, therefore, producing a series of false signals and making it hard to decide if the setup is bullish or bearish. The triangle apex is positioned in March (22nd, $29ish) and by then a strong move up or down should start. The current resistance is $31ish and falling and the current support is $28ish and rising. Watch for these levels to be broken for a clue of the next move.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 35-39 BUY, 26 days, +0.36% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 22.79/+3.12% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.1)
*comment/Dec16: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 sold too for a double sell signal. That seems dangerous. The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.
NEW/Jan13: A true 35-39 signal has been generated. If the 92-96 buys the structure might turn bullish but for now, I am just watching. $23 is the most important resistance level. $18.0 is the support level.
NEW/Jan20: Like many other charts the URA is working towards a bullish resolution. The reason that I didn't trust the 92-96 buy signal in October is now behind us, the price rose above $22. If a 92-96 buy signal can be generated above $23 the whole chart will turn very bullish. I have a bunch of U positions that I bought back in 2021 when the URA price was at $18ish so I am just watching.
NEW/Feb01: The 92-96 bought and at the same time the resistance line is being broken through. If the price can stay above $23 for a few more days we have a breakout.
NEW/Feb03: So the price couldn't stay above the $23 level for more than a day. We are back inside the trading range of the last 10 months ($18-$22). Let's see if the 92-96 buy signal can hold up and give the price a chance for another try at the breakout.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 31 days,
-6.95%; run pattern in-progress 1D/2U/+0.26%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 SELL executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.5)
*comment/Jan04: USERX true bull signal has been generated. Notice how today's close was exactly on $10.28 the mega-important level that I have been talking about for the last 10 months (thank you Jeff for pointing this out). Every important move since 2008 has started or stopped at this level. Simultaneously with generating this 92-96 signal and breaking the $10.28 level the price closed above the 200 days MAV for the first time since May 2022. Also, the MACD crossed over today. This all looks very bullish. The first target is $10.78 then $11.56 then $12.33. The short-term support is around 9.5ish.
NEW/Jan06: The price surged above $10.28. That is an important milestone. If in the next few days, the price hits 10.78 I expect some consolidation/correction to take place.
NEW/Jan13: We are very close to that $10.78 target. Some consolidation is in order.
NEW/Jan20: The consolidation is in progress. The 16-20 support is currently at $10ish and rising. The $10.28 important level is being tested from above and holding so far. I expect probably one more test before we are headed towards $10.78 and above ($11.56 next, then $12.33).
NEW/Feb01: So, we got that test of the $10.28 level again and it seems it has held. Now we need the rise over $10.71 for a new leg up to start.
NEW/Feb03: The $10.28 level didn't hold as I incorrectly guessed in the post above, I was wrong. I do not like the way that the price collapsed on Friday because it looks like the rejection of the $10.28 and possibly a signal of a further downside (9.3ish?). If the 35-39 index sells I am guessing that either we quickly sell the 92-96 too or we enter a long period of consolidation between $9.4 and $10.20. I think that the latter is more probable. Seems like the price got too far too quickly and needs a period of cooling down. Climbing a wall of worry is more appropriate for this stage in the bull market than the rapid acceleration that we got and I was worried about it in my GLD analysis.
NEW/Feb16: 35-39 sell signal has been generated. It should mark a low at least short-term. This is not how a bull market should start off but it is what it is. It is all about the $10.28 level and for now, it is resistance. We will not see a big move until that level is broken through properly. I suspect that will not happen at least in the next 6 weeks. The very-long term support is around $8.4-8.6 but if we get there the bull signal will end.
NEW/Feb17: Just an observation regarding yesterday's post, the 92-96 index future prices cross above $10.28 at the beginning of May. So, if the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive then from May 2023 the bull market should be in a full swing.
Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 77 days, +23.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $6078)
*comment/Feb01: The XGD chart configuration is bullish. The 16-20 index is being hit and we could expect support to kick in soon. For a new leg up $6800 needs to be broken out. I am 80% long.
NEW/Feb03: Based on the USA gold market I guess we are going to hit the $6000 support this week and probably sell the 35-39 buy signal but what then? Given the current 'risk on' hype probably a correction to $5500ish over the next few months. I have hedged 20% of my position on Fri by shorting NCM and NST. Will keep trailing stops on these for a while and probably add on bounces. My main account is still 80% long.
NEW/Feb08: So, my NCM hedge didn't work well but NST is fine for now. I'll cover it at around $11.5 if we get there. Still 80% long in my trading acc.
NEW/Feb15: Covered my hedge today.
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