The State Of Indices

 SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 10 days, +0.83% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $4026)

*Comment/Nov20: S and P generated a true bull signal. The SKI structure of this signal requires a June 2022-style rally to prevent a quick sell signal. The 36-month MAV ($3837) is below the current price so the crash scenario is off the table again. Confirming signals were generated by DXY and 10yy (the dollar has breached its uptrend line as well as 10yy). What I do not like about the SandP 92-96 buy signal is that the traditional TA is not even close to the breakout that the signal is suggesting. The 200-day MAV is above the current price at $4067 and the bear market downtrend line is also above the current price at $4100ish. My best guess is that the S and P rally continues until these levels are reached but then the 92-96 index sells. If this scenario transpires I will go short again (on a 92-96 sell signal). If the rally doesn't end with the 92-96 sell I will just watch.


HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 13 days, +5.44% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $226.05)
*comment/Nov25: HUI SKI configuration changed to bullish. The long-term support at $180 survived the test. The resistance at $230 needs to be broken for $270 to become a target. A dip down under $210 is needed into mid-December to transform the structure into a true bull market.


$NDX - Nasdaq, last signal 92-96 SELL, 5 days, +0.68% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $11756)
*comment/Nov25: The chart is in a bearish configuration. As expected, the 92-96 sold at the resistance. I started a short position ($11832 entry). Stop loss at $12110.


$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 20 days, +1.21% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1869)
*comment/Nov25: The chart structure is transitioning from bearish to bullish. A bullish 92-96 true buy signal has been generated. The SKI structure of it is not great but is better than the S and P and Nasdaq. To sustain the BUY signal the price needs to advance to $2000 and above by the end of December. $1900 is firm resistance but if it gets broken there will not be much resistance to reaching $2000. If I am going to switch to the long side the Russell 2000 is probably the vehicle to use. Watching for now.


$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 262 days, +136.6% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to SELL 3.64/-1.36% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.69%)
*comment/Nov25: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend is weakening, 3.8% didn't hold. The 35-39 index sold, bought back and is about to sell again. I expect that 3.5%ish will be hit in the next 4-5 weeks. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like firm resistance. The chart is starting to look like a triple top but it is too early to say.


XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 13 days, +5.46% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $118.26)
*comment/Nov17: XAU is now in bullish configuration but it is still early days and might need one more test of support. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The 92-96 buy should have marked a short-term top. The stage has been set for a true bull market in mid-Dec. We are not in a traditional TA bull market yet (the $123 resistance needs to be cleared). The 35-39 index needs to hold.


ASA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days, -0.94% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to NOT BUY 13.59/-1.31% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.77)
*comment/Nov12: ASA is in a bearish configuration but the 35-39 index finally bought. We need this to continue. A further rise to $15ish will provide a beautiful bullish setup for a bull market in January 2023.
NEW:/Nov17: The 92-96 is rejecting the buy for now. That is not good for the gold sector because the ASA has been the leading indicator since the 2020 bottom.
NEW/Nov20: The 92-96 index is still rejecting the buy. There are many bull scenarios to get out of this trouble but one thing must not happen and that is the break of $12 support.
NEW/Nov25: The price is slowly approaching the 92-96 buy level. If the 92-96 generates a buy signal then the simple condition for a new bull market is that the 35-39 doesn't sell before the 92-96 sells and buys back.


Bitcoin, last signal 35-39 SELL, 15 days, -3.07% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16510
*comment/Nov12: Finally the bottom broke. The first target is $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. Short term we could see a rally back to test the $18K from below.
NEW/Nov17: As expected the $18K breakdown point was tested from below. The next target is $13796 where I might start buying.


COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, +5.54% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $34.68)
*comment/Nov25: COPX is in a bullish constellation. The 92-96 buy signal together with the 200 MAV has caused a consolidation (as expected). It seems like the bottom is in but I am still not certain about the long-term implications of these signals. A rally to $40-41 seems viable but probably not before the 16-20 index was touched/bought. The support lies around $31 at present.


DXY (dollar index), 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $105.96)
*comment/Nov17: The DXY bull is over. Short term I expect a rally but the next 16-20 sell signal should be shorted. It fits with the gold weakness into the year-end and the start of a bull market in mid-December.
NEW/Nov25: The 92-96 bought back and sold again which opens a possibility of a new bull 92-96 signal. That is a bit confusing because there is no similar signal generated by the gold or EUR chart. Even the UUP chart doesn't have it so if the 92-96 buys again I will not consider it a bull market. The maximum potential of such a signal would be a rally to $110ish in my opinion. A more logical scenario (than a new buy) would be an instant drop to $103ish to confirm the breakdown of the trend. Such an outcome would push the gold price up before the bull market signal is generated and postpone the signal probably till the second half of 2023 (quite possible).


GDX, on 35-39, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, +6.68% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.44)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now in a bullish config but it needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).


GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, +7.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.23)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now in a bullish config but it needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).


GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, -0.16% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $163.22)
*comment/Nov20: The GLD chart structure is turning bullish but it needs more work. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes bought which implies that the bottom is in. The 92-96 buy should mark a short-term top (with a $158-160 target on the downside). An acceleration point would be a break above $168. For now, the 35-39 index is the line between the bull and the bear (the 35-39 buy signal needs to hold until at least mid-December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).


SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, +10.41% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.72)
*comment/Nov12: The SKI structure changed to bullish. This 92-96 buy signal should provide some resistance and short-term correction (target $18.5-19.5). Weakness should be bought from now on. $20.5 is still important resistance to be broken for acceleration.


TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, +0.86% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $107.47)
*comment/Nov03: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. We spent a month in the $105-107 range. Finally, the 16-20 index produced a SELL signal. This should mark a new leg up or down. The SKI structure favours a down move.
NEW/Nov05: Still in that $105-107 range but now at the lower side. This range is now more important than SKI signals.
NEW/Nov12: Still flip-flopping inside the range but given the action of the TLT we might finally break out to the upside. We'll see.
NEW/Nov20: 35-39 bought but the price fell back into the $105-107 range. Same old, same old. Waiting.
NEW/Nov25: Pressure is to the upside. The price closed above the $107 level for the second day in a row. Let's see if this can continue.


TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 7 days, +1.48% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.9)
*comment/Nov03: TLT is in a bearish configuration. $90 is the target. If the acceleration continues it all looks like the financial system is falling apart. This chart is why I do not trust the equity market rally. Until the bond market stabilizes the risks are too high.
NEW/Nov12: The short-term trend broke to the upside but we need a 16-20 sell signal to confirm the action. Then a 35-39 buy signal to signal a more severe correction.
NEW/Nov17: 16-20 sold as expected but more importantly the 35-39 is breaking to buy. The tide is turning.


UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY (juxtaposed), onpath, notxxed, 14 days, -20.81% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 28.21/+0.61% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.04)
*comment/Nov17: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal did eventually mark resistance (as expected). I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support.


URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 19 days, +3.56% (also, 16-20 to BUY 19.71/-5.78% or lower; 35-39 to SELL 20.37/-2.63% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.92)
*comment/Nov03: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The signal structure is pretty sound but the buy happened below the classical TA resistance ($22) so it is not trustable until this level is exceeded.


USERX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days,
-0.42%; run pattern in-progress 2U/1D/-1.65%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $9.56)
*comment/Nov17: USERX is in a bearish configuration but that is slowly changing. Both 35-39 and 92-96 bought which should be enough to confirm the bottom. To turn this chart really bullish the $10.28 needs to be cleared but I doubt that it will happen quickly. The current 92-96 buy signal should provide resistance and probably lead to a correction. If during the next month the price can stay in the $9.0-10.0 range a true bull market buy signal is probable by the second half of December. If we just keep pushing up and exceed this range ($10.28) without meaningful pause then $11.75 is the target but a true bull market signal will probably be postponed to the second half of 2023. So, the best-case scenario is a consolidation in the $9-10 range until the 92-96 index generates a true buy signal. The condition of the consolidation is that the 35-39 doesn't sell because that would ruin the setup. The current picture aligns well with the dollar and the 10yy signals. There are other encouraging signs too: Platinum (a leading indicator for gold) is already on a true bull signal, Copper broke out, Silver is in the bullish config, etc.
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).


Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, +17.42% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $5793)
*comment/Nov17: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish but needs more work. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am down to 25% long and looking to buy more on weak days.