BMGold Technical Analysis: November 2022

Wednesday 30 November 2022

Tuesday 29 November 2022

Monday 28 November 2022

Friday 25 November 2022

The State Of Indices

SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 10 days, +0.83% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $4026)

*Comment/Nov20: S and P generated a true bull signal. The SKI structure of this signal requires a June 2022-style rally to prevent a quick sell signal. The 36-month MAV ($3837) is below the current price so the crash scenario is off the table again. Confirming signals were generated by DXY and 10yy (the dollar has breached its uptrend line as well as 10yy). What I do not like about the SandP 92-96 buy signal is that the traditional TA is not even close to the breakout that the signal is suggesting. The 200-day MAV is above the current price at $4067 and the bear market downtrend line is also above the current price at $4100ish. My best guess is that the S and P rally continues until these levels are reached but then the 92-96 index sells. If this scenario transpires I will go short again (on a 92-96 sell signal). If the rally doesn't end with the 92-96 sell I will just watch.

HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 13 days, +5.44% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $226.05)
*comment/Nov25: HUI SKI configuration changed to bullish. The long-term support at $180 survived the test. The resistance at $230 needs to be broken for $270 to become a target. A dip down under $210 is needed into mid-December to transform the structure into a true bull market.

$NDX - Nasdaq, last signal 92-96 SELL, 5 days, +0.68% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $11756)
*comment/Nov25: The chart is in a bearish configuration. As expected, the 92-96 sold at the resistance. I started a short position ($11832 entry). Stop loss at $12110.

$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 20 days, +1.21% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1869)
*comment/Nov25: The chart structure is transitioning from bearish to bullish. A bullish 92-96 true buy signal has been generated. The SKI structure of it is not great but is better than the S and P and Nasdaq. To sustain the BUY signal the price needs to advance to $2000 and above by the end of December. $1900 is firm resistance but if it gets broken there will not be much resistance to reaching $2000. If I am going to switch to the long side the Russell 2000 is probably the vehicle to use. Watching for now.

$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 262 days, +136.6% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to SELL 3.64/-1.36% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.69%)
*comment/Nov25: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend is weakening, 3.8% didn't hold. The 35-39 index sold, bought back and is about to sell again. I expect that 3.5%ish will be hit in the next 4-5 weeks. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like firm resistance. The chart is starting to look like a triple top but it is too early to say.

XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 13 days, +5.46% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $118.26)
*comment/Nov17: XAU is now in bullish configuration but it is still early days and might need one more test of support. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The 92-96 buy should have marked a short-term top. The stage has been set for a true bull market in mid-Dec. We are not in a traditional TA bull market yet (the $123 resistance needs to be cleared). The 35-39 index needs to hold.

ASA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days, -0.94% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to NOT BUY 13.59/-1.31% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.77)
*comment/Nov12: ASA is in a bearish configuration but the 35-39 index finally bought. We need this to continue. A further rise to $15ish will provide a beautiful bullish setup for a bull market in January 2023.
NEW:/Nov17: The 92-96 is rejecting the buy for now. That is not good for the gold sector because the ASA has been the leading indicator since the 2020 bottom.
NEW/Nov20: The 92-96 index is still rejecting the buy. There are many bull scenarios to get out of this trouble but one thing must not happen and that is the break of $12 support.
NEW/Nov25: The price is slowly approaching the 92-96 buy level. If the 92-96 generates a buy signal then the simple condition for a new bull market is that the 35-39 doesn't sell before the 92-96 sells and buys back.

Bitcoin, last signal 35-39 SELL, 15 days, -3.07% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16510
*comment/Nov12: Finally the bottom broke. The first target is $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. Short term we could see a rally back to test the $18K from below.
NEW/Nov17: As expected the $18K breakdown point was tested from below. The next target is $13796 where I might start buying.

COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, +5.54% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $34.68)
*comment/Nov25: COPX is in a bullish constellation. The 92-96 buy signal together with the 200 MAV has caused a consolidation (as expected). It seems like the bottom is in but I am still not certain about the long-term implications of these signals. A rally to $40-41 seems viable but probably not before the 16-20 index was touched/bought. The support lies around $31 at present.

DXY (dollar index), 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $105.96)
*comment/Nov17: The DXY bull is over. Short term I expect a rally but the next 16-20 sell signal should be shorted. It fits with the gold weakness into the year-end and the start of a bull market in mid-December.
NEW/Nov25: The 92-96 bought back and sold again which opens a possibility of a new bull 92-96 signal. That is a bit confusing because there is no similar signal generated by the gold or EUR chart. Even the UUP chart doesn't have it so if the 92-96 buys again I will not consider it a bull market. The maximum potential of such a signal would be a rally to $110ish in my opinion. A more logical scenario (than a new buy) would be an instant drop to $103ish to confirm the breakdown of the trend. Such an outcome would push the gold price up before the bull market signal is generated and postpone the signal probably till the second half of 2023 (quite possible).

GDX, on 35-39, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, +6.68% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.44)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now in a bullish config but it needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).

GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, +7.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.23)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now in a bullish config but it needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).

GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, -0.16% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $163.22)
*comment/Nov20: The GLD chart structure is turning bullish but it needs more work. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes bought which implies that the bottom is in. The 92-96 buy should mark a short-term top (with a $158-160 target on the downside). An acceleration point would be a break above $168. For now, the 35-39 index is the line between the bull and the bear (the 35-39 buy signal needs to hold until at least mid-December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).

SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, +10.41% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.72)
*comment/Nov12: The SKI structure changed to bullish. This 92-96 buy signal should provide some resistance and short-term correction (target $18.5-19.5). Weakness should be bought from now on. $20.5 is still important resistance to be broken for acceleration.

TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, +0.86% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $107.47)
*comment/Nov03: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. We spent a month in the $105-107 range. Finally, the 16-20 index produced a SELL signal. This should mark a new leg up or down. The SKI structure favours a down move.
NEW/Nov05: Still in that $105-107 range but now at the lower side. This range is now more important than SKI signals.
NEW/Nov12: Still flip-flopping inside the range but given the action of the TLT we might finally break out to the upside. We'll see.
NEW/Nov20: 35-39 bought but the price fell back into the $105-107 range. Same old, same old. Waiting.
NEW/Nov25: Pressure is to the upside. The price closed above the $107 level for the second day in a row. Let's see if this can continue.

TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 7 days, +1.48% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.9)
*comment/Nov03: TLT is in a bearish configuration. $90 is the target. If the acceleration continues it all looks like the financial system is falling apart. This chart is why I do not trust the equity market rally. Until the bond market stabilizes the risks are too high.
NEW/Nov12: The short-term trend broke to the upside but we need a 16-20 sell signal to confirm the action. Then a 35-39 buy signal to signal a more severe correction.
NEW/Nov17: 16-20 sold as expected but more importantly the 35-39 is breaking to buy. The tide is turning.

UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY (juxtaposed), onpath, notxxed, 14 days, -20.81% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 28.21/+0.61% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.04)
*comment/Nov17: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal did eventually mark resistance (as expected). I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support.

URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 19 days, +3.56% (also, 16-20 to BUY 19.71/-5.78% or lower; 35-39 to SELL 20.37/-2.63% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.92)
*comment/Nov03: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The signal structure is pretty sound but the buy happened below the classical TA resistance ($22) so it is not trustable until this level is exceeded.

USERX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days,
-0.42%; run pattern in-progress 2U/1D/-1.65%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $9.56)
*comment/Nov17: USERX is in a bearish configuration but that is slowly changing. Both 35-39 and 92-96 bought which should be enough to confirm the bottom. To turn this chart really bullish the $10.28 needs to be cleared but I doubt that it will happen quickly. The current 92-96 buy signal should provide resistance and probably lead to a correction. If during the next month the price can stay in the $9.0-10.0 range a true bull market buy signal is probable by the second half of December. If we just keep pushing up and exceed this range ($10.28) without meaningful pause then $11.75 is the target but a true bull market signal will probably be postponed to the second half of 2023. So, the best-case scenario is a consolidation in the $9-10 range until the 92-96 index generates a true buy signal. The condition of the consolidation is that the 35-39 doesn't sell because that would ruin the setup. The current picture aligns well with the dollar and the 10yy signals. There are other encouraging signs too: Platinum (a leading indicator for gold) is already on a true bull signal, Copper broke out, Silver is in the bullish config, etc.
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).

Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, +17.42% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $5793)
*comment/Nov17: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish but needs more work. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am down to 25% long and looking to buy more on weak days.

The State Of Indices, 3/11/2022

SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -2.9% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $3759)

*Comment/Oct31: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3815 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price closed below this level at the end of September (for a possible crash) but now (end of October) it closed above it again for an instant reversal. There are more signs that the tide is turning around. The 92-96 generated a true bull buy signal and the 439-443 index also generated a similar buy signal. There are multiple other charts corroborating these signals across the board (DOW, Nasdaq, Russell, TRAN, AAPL, Platinum, Uranium, Etherium). The problem I have with this setup is that a similar signal is not generated on the classical TA charts where the real resistance lies above at around $4100. The second problem is that the SKI structure of this signal is weak and only a strong rally a la July 2022 will prevent the 92-96 index from selling quickly. The third problem is that the dollar and 10yy didn't even break the current short-term trends let alone generate bearish signals. I am staying away from this market (except my 20% long position in Aussie golds) until the FED meeting this Wednesday. After that, I will reassess.
NEW/Nov03: As expected the 'pivot' crew got screwed on the FED announcement. I expect the 92-96 buy to end soon. That doesn't mean necessarily that we are imminently going into the crash mode (see how we closed under $3815 again). It rather means the downtrend is still in charge and will probably be slow and exhausting. $3500 is firm support for now.

HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 6 days, -8.04% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to NOT SELL 195.16/+4.39% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $186.95)
*comment/Oct01: HUI is in a bearish configuration. As suggested before, critical support is being tested. $180 needs to hold because it is the long-term support originating from the 2015 low. So far the low is 172.86 and that dive under $180 produced a strong reaction to the upside. The 16-20 sell signal was positive for the potential low. All weekly indicators are deep in oversold territory and show positive divergencies. If $180 doesn't hold $140-160 is the target.
NEW/Oct25: We are back to try to buy the 35-39 index. If it fails again or quickly buys and sells I think $180 support is going to fall. A rise to $220ish is needed to confirm the bottom.
NEW/Nov01: 35-39 buy is showing weakness. Not a good sign. If it sells again I suspect the $180 level will be breached.

$NDX - Nasdaq, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $10906)
*comment/Nov01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 index bought but the buy is xxed. The SKI structure of the signal is weak and is executed below the classical TA resistance level ($12K) which is not supportive of a sustained rally here. I think I am going to try a new short position on the next 92-96 sell signal. The higher it happens the better, ideally $12-12.5K. If the 92-96 buy can hold for more than 2 months we might reach a new ATH in the first quarter of 2023 (not expected).
NEW/Nov03: 92-96 sold as expected. I expected it at a higher level so I will wait for a better short entry.

$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, -3.13% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to BUY 1838/+2.77% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1789)
*comment/Nov01: The chart is in a bearish configuration but a bullish 92-96 true buy signal has been generated. The SKI structure of it is better than the S and P and Nasdaq chart but is still below the classical TA resistance which is positioned at $1900ish (that is not confirming the buy signal). If $1900 can be overcome the structure will turn bullish and I will take that into consideration for a possible switch to the long side of the market. For now, I am looking for signs of weakness to reinstate the short position.

$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 246 days, +160.19% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.06%)
*comment/Sep27: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The yield is above 3.5% and volatile. This is a sign of serious problems in the debt market. Everyone should be very careful with being exposed to these conditions.
NEW/Sep29: 4% level was hit and produced a strong reaction to the downside. The double sell setup that existed 2 weeks ago is now gone and the order of SKI indices is supportive for more upside but we will probably see some correction/consolidation first. The support is around 3.3% and rising.
NEW/Oct12: We are back to 4%ish yields and markets are on the brink of breaking down. If the 10yy spikes above 4% I expect Nasdaq to hit my target at $10579 quickly but that would be just the first step towards $9500ish.
NEW/Oct15: 10yy closed above 4% and the trend is up. My NDX and SandP targets were hit. The question is now, are we going into a full-blown crash or there will be a correction first? I am positioned for a correction but will quickly change my mind if 10yy keeps pushing up.
NEW/Nov01: The expected correction is in progress. 3.9-4% is behaving like support for now. No damage to the trend has been done so far which is not supportive of the SandP and Nasdaq bullish signals. For this confirmation to happen at least 3.8% needs to be breached but more importantly 3.6%. We will see what the next FED meeting brings to the table.
NEW/Nov03: The FED meeting didn't affect the 10yy at all. I expect consolidation in the 3.8-4.1% area.

XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days,
-7.36% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to NOT SELL 102.39/+3.17% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $99.24)
*comment/Sep27: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The low so far is $90.08. The long-term uptrend is being tested at $90. A flush to $80-85 is probable in my opinion. For the record, XAU performed the life run price pattern 2up5down -2.23% per day.
NEW/Oct01: XAU bounced off the critical support line in a perfect manner while at the same time it performed a life-run low price pattern. This 16-20 sell signal looks promising for a potential bottom but the elusive 35-39 is needed for confirmation.
NEW/Oct06: If the bottom is in, as suggested by the life run low pattern and historically oversold conditions, a 35-39 buy signal should generate before the 16-20 buy to finally break free of the downtrend. I do think that this is the probable play here.
NEW/Nov03: 35-39 buy is showing weakness. Not a good sign. If it sells again I suspect the $90 level will be breached.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 3 days, +0.66% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12.26)
*comment/Nov01: ASA is in a bearish configuration and consistently showing underperformance compared to other gold indices. Since the ASA has been the leading indicator since 2020 this is not a good sign for the gold sector. The chart looks weak structurally and in absolute terms. This 16-20 buy needs to hold. If $12 is lost, $10.5-11.0 is the target.

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, -2.29% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20124
*comment/Oct09: BTC is in a bearish configuration. Today the 92-96 index sold for a TRIPLE SELL. The downtrend line didn't break yet as well as the support line so I am not sure if it is up or down from here. The rise over 21K will again flip the signals (bullishness, target $30Kish). If the 18K is broken to the downside I will go short (bearishness, target $13Kish). I think the breakdown is more probable but...
NEW/Nov01: The triple sell signal didn't result in
a breakdown. The 35-39 index bought back but all is still inside the boundaries described above. I guess not much has changed. Still waiting for a break above $21K or below $18K. These levels are now more important than SKI signals.

COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, +1.29% (also, 16-20 to SELL $29.61/+1.96% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.04)
*comment/Nov01: COPX is in a bearish configuration. I said for the last 35-39 sell signal (23d Sept) that it was probably worth shorting but it marked the low. Today we are in a similar position. Normally, today's 35-39 sell signal would be shortable but given the effect that the FED meetings have on the overall market, it is probably more advisable just to wait until after the meeting. Then, see if $27 gets broken to the downside ($21 target) or $32 gets broken to the upside ($38 target).

DXY (dollar index), on 92-96 true BUY, 345 days, +21.17% (also, 16-20 to SELL $113.33/+1.09% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $112.11)
*comment/23Sep: The DXY is in a bullish configuration. The price is departing from the critical $110 level. The SKI structure is gradually strengthening again, suggesting more advances ahead. The 10yy and TLT are confirming. The target is $121.07.
NEW/Sep30: Nothing has been broken yet but the strong rejection by the $114 level suggests we might have a new shot at some kind of a top.
NEW/Oct06: I am looking for an entry to go short (over $115) or to go long if 16-20 bought.
NEW/Oct25: 16-20 did buy but I am staying put. I think the market needs more time to make a move.
NEW/Nov01: The move since the $114 level was touched still looks like consolidation, the short-term uptrend is holding well, with no damage. The 35-39 index needs to sell in order to weaken the trend and possibly confirm the bullish S and P and Nasdaq signals. I am watching for now.

GDX, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to BUY 25.46/+9.51% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $23.25)
*comment/Oct06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. After the flush of the crucial $25 level ($21.52 low) combined with the 881-888 index buy signal and favourable rPrice reading the price surged back above $25 to potentially buy that 35-39 index that has been avoided for so long. If the low is in I fully expect the 35-39 index to buy before the 16-20 buy and finally puts to rest the issue of the long-term bottom. After the 35-39 buy I expect the correction. If we lose $25 again before the 35-39 buy signal and the 16-20 buy doesn't stop the fall then real devastation is coming ($16-17). That is not expected.
NEW/Nov03: 35-39 sold. I suspect now the $22 level will be breached.

GDXJ, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.46)
*comment/Oct06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. After the flush of the $28 level ($25.8 low) combined with the 881-888 index buy signal and favourable rPrice reading the price surged back above $28 to potentially buy that 35-39 index that has been avoided for so long. If the low is in I fully expect the 35-39 index to buy in the next two weeks and finally puts to rest the issue of the long-term bottom. After the 35-39 buy I expect the correction. If we lose $28 again before the 35-39 buy signal and the 16-20 buy doesn't stop the fall real devastation is coming ($20-22). That is not expected.
NEW/Oct12: The scenario that I considered less probable is in play, 16-20 bought before the 35-39. Now, the signal needs to hold or the crash to $120-22 is coming. The low so far was $25.8 but before that I expect $28 to show some support.
NEW/Nov03: 35-39 sold. I suspect now the $26 level will be breached.

GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 35 days, -1.67% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $152.39)
*comment/Nov01: GLD chart is in a bearish configuration. The price action of the last 2 weeks is negative. The 16-20 sell was rejected at the exact resistance line ($160) and it keeps being rejected despite an excellent setup. The fall didn't stop at $154 and the price is almost back in the downtrend channel that is emanating from the March top. With the ASA diverging from the other indices this doesn't look good especially if the silver setup falls apart as well (SLV under $17, holding so far). It seems that the immediate target is $147.44 but then if we go into the crash mode the target is around $136 (not expected for now).

SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, -0.73% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.73)
*comment/Nov03: The SKI structure is still bearish. The price is above $17 which makes the setup still valid for a rally above $18.5 which would be a breakout. Having said that the 35-39 index is breaking towards a sell signal and all looks weak if we don't get the last-moment push upward. If the 35-39 sells I suspect the target is $15-15.5ish.

TIP, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, -0.38% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $106.13)
*comment/Nov03: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. We spent a month in the $105-107 range. Finally, the 16-20 index produced a SELL signal. This should mark a new leg up or down. The SKI structure favours a down move.

TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 49 days, -14.56% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $96.35)
*comment/Nov03: TLT is in a bearish configuration. $90 is the target. If the acceleration continues it all looks like the financial system is falling apart. This chart is why I do not trust the equity market rally. Until the bond market stabilizes the risks are too high.

UCO (crude oil ETF), 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to BUY 3.12/-6.66% or lower; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $33.34)
*comment/Nov03: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. This 35-39 buy signal should mark resistance. If not $40 is the target (not expected).

URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -2.7% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.65)
*comment/Nov03: The 92-96 did buy for a true bull market. The signal structure is pretty sound but the buy happened below the classical TA resistance ($22) so it is not trustable until this level is exceeded.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days,
-0.71%; run pattern in-progress 1U/1D/-2.78%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.4)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega-important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/Sep29: The 35-39 index sold. The fall continues, the current target area is the 881-885 index. The back prices of this index sit between $6.46 and $6.68 for the next 15 days. Where to look for a possible bottom? The weekly rPrice(200) at the 2020 low was -23.55%, and the current is -21.54% so we are in the ballpark. The $8.0 area is the support emanating from the 2015 low and if broken hard but then recovered quickly we might be close to the low. Let's see if and how we hit the 881-885 index and behaviour around that level. If the behaviour implies strong support and it is combined with a favourable rPrice reading the low might be in. I have posted the USERX weekly chart in my "USERX and XGD.AX chart" thread for everyone to see how important this juncture is. 61.8% Fibo, 2020 uptrend, 2022 downtrend and 2013 horizontal support all are converging into this $8 level so it better hold.
NEW/Nov01: Nothing new, the 35-39 is rejecting the buy again. At the same time, the 660-664 exercises the downward pressure and the 16-20 a short-term support. When gold and ASA chart are taken into account it just doesn't feel like it will end up well. It seems that $8 will be broken. It all depends on the FED action now and I suspect it won't be bullish.

Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, +0.94% (also, 16-20 to BUY 4945/-0.69% or lower; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4980)
*comment/Nov03: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 bought but the behaviour is weak. I am not adding and have put stops on my 20% long position (35-39 sell signal).