Thursday 2 September 2021

Chart Of The Day - UUP, GLD, Copper, Russell, 10 years yield

Since UUP generated its true bull signal and Copper generated its double sell signal they both went into a correction. The same happened with GLD which at the same time generated 16-20 buy and managed to rally to sell it now.  
I was long dollar which I considered medium-term and long gold which I considered short term. I also said I will reduce my gold position back to the core by Labour Day and wait to see if the week after Labour Day can bring more clarity of the market direction. That is what I am doing today. I will sell at break-even since the Aussie stocks that I am invested in didn't make as much progress as the US counterparts. I am sticking to my long dollar position for now. Will add if the 35-39 holds or sells and then rebuys. 

My interpretation of the dollar true buy signal combined with the breakdown of the price of copper was that it might be signalling a potential correction in the broad markets, especially industrials represented with the Russell index. While the dollar, copper and gold behaved exactly as expected the Russell index did the opposite. It spiked up to generate a new 92-96 true buy combined with a 35-39 buy for a powerful double buy. These signals negate the dollar/copper setup and both setups cannot be right. 

We have very strong signals being fired across the board and I am sure they are marking the beginning of the new medium-term trend. The first week of September is also the one that usually signals what the trend is going to be for the next month or two so the timing seems right. We just need clarification on the direction. 

UUP
A perfect bull market correction down to 16-20 buy and 35-39 touch/sell before the uptrend resumes

Copper stocks
Rally failed to change picture to bullish


GLD
Check how the recent rally has set up a possible triple sell signal as was pointed out before. Gold price needs to keep rising in order to avoid selling the support.


Russell
Sharp rally to buy 92-96 and 35-39 but the buy is happening while the price is still under the resistance line. That is not very convincing. Needs more upside to confirm the bullish setup.


10 years yield
About to generate a 16-20 buy which then can be followed by a 35-39 buy to break the downtrend. If it happens it would be consistent with a potential broad market correction.










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