USERX chart

 

Chart Of The Day - HUI

 Since SKI usually doesn't catch exact bottoms but rather signals the change of trend let's check the daily chart of HUI. 

If we go back all the way to Sept 2018 bottom and find fibo levels in regard to the Aug 2020 top we will find out that the Nov 2020 bottom fell in the 38.2% fibo zone, the March 2021 bottom fell in 50% fibo zone and that price is right now around 61.8% fibo zone. Fibo is $223.64 current price $224.92. 

Current rPrice(200) stands at -18.97%. The lowest reading in the last 5 years was on Sep 2018 at -24.09%. If we reached the same level today that would be $210.07.

There is an open up gap from Apr 2020 at 211.37.

The support line drawn from the bottom of 2018 through the bottoms of June 2019 and March 2020 points to $200 as the long term support.

I'd say that there is strong support in $200-220 zone and that we should expect the low to materialize in this area. A quick drop below $200 would be a great opportunity to back up the truck. 

Chart Of The Day - UUP, 10 years yield

 UUP price has cleared all the resistance on the SKI chart. Acceleration is in progress and if 10 years yields keep rising we could have a deadly mix to blow up the equity markets. 

UUP

10 years yield

To give the whole perspective I am posting the weekly chart of the UUP. There is clearly a strong weekly resistance around 25.5 level. If all the obstacles for the fiscal stimulus get cleared in the next 2 weeks (debt ceiling and infrastructure bill) this level could mark the top for UUP. The SKI chart is not favouring this outcome but recently the news on stimulus have been more important than charts. 

I am still long dollar and will add on weaknesses.

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

10 years yield

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

USERX chart

 

Chart Of The Day - UUP, GLD, Copper, Russell, 10 years yield

Since UUP generated its true bull signal and Copper generated its double sell signal they both went into a correction. The same happened with GLD which at the same time generated 16-20 buy and managed to rally to sell it now.  

I was long dollar which I considered medium-term and long gold which I considered short term. I also said I will reduce my gold position back to the core by Labour Day and wait to see if the week after Labour Day can bring more clarity of the market direction. That is what I am doing today. I will sell at break-even since the Aussie stocks that I am invested in didn't make as much progress as the US counterparts. I am sticking to my long dollar position for now. Will add if the 35-39 holds or sells and then rebuys. 

My interpretation of the dollar true buy signal combined with the breakdown of the price of copper was that it might be signalling a potential correction in the broad markets, especially industrials represented with the Russell index. While the dollar, copper and gold behaved exactly as expected the Russell index did the opposite. It spiked up to generate a new 92-96 true buy combined with a 35-39 buy for a powerful double buy. These signals negate the dollar/copper setup and both setups cannot be right. 

We have very strong signals being fired across the board and I am sure they are marking the beginning of the new medium-term trend. The first week of September is also the one that usually signals what the trend is going to be for the next month or two so the timing seems right. We just need clarification on the direction. 

UUP

A perfect bull market correction down to 16-20 buy and 35-39 touch/sell before the uptrend resumes

Copper stocks

Rally failed to change picture to bullish

GLD

Check how the recent rally has set up a possible triple sell signal as was pointed out before. Gold price needs to keep rising in order to avoid selling the support.

Russell

Sharp rally to buy 92-96 and 35-39 but the buy is happening while the price is still under the resistance line. That is not very convincing. Needs more upside to confirm the bullish setup.

10 years yield

About to generate a 16-20 buy which then can be followed by a 35-39 buy to break the downtrend. If it happens it would be consistent with a potential broad market correction.

USERX chart - 03/09/2021

 

USERX chart - 2/9/2021