GLD triggers an important signal

After a month of nothingness and just using time the gold and the gold indices charts are finally triggering some important signals. GLD and SLV are looking like they are about to overcome recent resistance levels and embark on a new rally.
Let's start with GLD and SLV charts

GLD - gold
6 days ago GLD triggered a 35-39 buy signal inside it's 92-96 true bull signal. That was an indication that GLD might have been in a process of breaking out. In my last post, I suggested that the only thing missing to confirm the breakout is a 16-20 sell signal and a close over 164.96. Last night the 16-20 sell has been generated but the closing price was still below 164.96. It certainly seems like the breakout process is in progress and the new move up is starting. If the breakout fails it will most probably be in a form of a double sell 16-20 and 35-39.

From the weekly chart of GLD it is visible that, if the breakout is successful, the next target is 174.00.

SLV - silver
After an impressive rally from the bottom of the crash to buy 92-96 SLV made a classic buy sell move to set up a true bull buy. If it can hold above 16.54 for another two days the buy will generate.
If the price hovers between 16.0 and 16.5 for a few days and then moves above 16.50 then the buy would be in the form of a double buy 16-20  and 92-96.
When and if the buy is generated the price will have to move above 17.40 quickly. After that, it will enter the territory of a proper bull alignment because indices will be in the correct order and the 92-96 index will be falling sharply passed 07.07.20.

If the correction continues the main support lies around 15.50. There is a lot of support before the price of SLV would be able to get there, i.e. 16-20 buy and 218-222 index support.


USERX
USERX is on its true bull signal since 27.04.20. After achieving a new high for the year USERX has been developing a bullish flag slightly below this high. This flag looks like a test of the breakout from the above. Three scenarios are now possible.
First, collapse straight down to sell 35-39 and 92-96. Not good.
Second, rise straight up through 16-20 sell signal to reach new highs for the year without interfering with 35-39 or 92-96 index. Good.

The third scenario is a bit more complex, after the 16-20 sell there is a possibility for a double sell or a triple sell. If double sell 16-20 and 35-39 happens without 92-96 selling that will still stay in a bullish domain. If you check the chart you will see that for this scenario to happen the price will need to be over 10.61 by 07.07.20. After the 07.07 the 92-96 starts the big drop and there will be a lot of space for the double sell to produce some serious correction without selling the bull. I don't think this scenario is very probable.
The other version of this third scenario is that 16-20 and 92-96 double sell happens first. In this case, the sell would happen below 10.61 and the price would be in a position where it cannot avoid a new 92-96 buy and 35-39 sell. If the 35-39 sell happens first that would make a triple sell but for this to happen the price and time will have to be very precise which is not very probable. It is much more probable that the 92-96 buys back before the 35-39 sells and reignites the true bull, this time in a much more bullish alignment than the current bull. Even if the triple sell happens an immediate 92-96 xxed buy will follow which in my opinion will significantly reduce the effect of the triple sell.
It seems to me that the only really bearish scenario is the immediate collapse bellow 9.50. It needs to happen before the 07.07 because the indices alignment after this date doesn't support the bearish outcome especially if the gold breaks free of 1750.0.

XGD Australian gold index
XGD recently broke out of the downtrend line that started at the Aug 2019 high. It is on an xxed out 92-96 buy and the action of the last two weeks seems like a textbook test of the breakout. 5 days ago a 16-20 buy generated to support the theses of the breakout test. The only problem with this chart is that 218-222 long term support sold but that can be easily rectified in the next two weeks.

HUI gold index
HUI broke out of 240.00 level to then reach and breach the 2016 top price. The top formed in the shape of a small head and shoulders pattern and additionally, two days ago the price sold 35-39 index. Inside the 92-96 buy, this 35-39 sell usually behaves like the support. This support is corroborated with the uptrend line which started at the bottom of the crash. If this support line doesn't hold (not likely) the next support is around 240.00-250.00. If the rise happens and 16-20 sells there will be a period of 2 weeks when a double sell 16-20 and 35-39 will be possible.

XAU
XAU broke out of 107.00 level to then reach and breach the 2016 top. Same as HUI, the top formed in the shape of a small head and shoulders pattern, and additionally, yesterday the price sold 35-39 index. Inside the 92-96 buy, this 35-39 sell usually behaves like the support. This support is corroborated with the uptrend line which started at the bottom of the crash. If this support line doesn't hold (not likely) the next support is around 107.00-110.00. If the rise happens and 16-20 sells there will be a period of 2 weeks when a double sell 16-20 and 35-39 will be possible.

GDX
Same as HUI and XAU, GDX has sold the 35-39 and is potentially in the process of bottoming. If the rise happens and 16-20 sells there will be a period of 2 weeks when a double sell 16-20 and 35-39 will be possible.

GDXJ
GDXJ never sold the 35-39. The next signal will be a 16-20 sell (bullish) or 92-96 sell (bearish).

S and P 500
The SandP recovery after the crash was impressive but for now, it has fallen short of buying back the 92-96 index. Some kind of consolidation will be needed to cool down the excessive bullishness that prevails in this area at present. I stopped looking for a big correction and a new low that I have been expecting since the recovery started. It seems that the strength of this chart is correlated with the weakness of the dollar. Maybe, as some analysts suggest, we will see the melt-up rally in the SandP before the next downturn, who nows? Anyway, 3200.00 will be a hard obstacle to overcome and I expect the SandP to hover between 2950.0 and 3200.0 for a while before the next move is revealed. 

UUP dollar

I believe that the answer to the inflation/deflation question lies in this chart. For the last 6 months, there were several times when I thought that we got the answer but every time the price broke up or down it was instantly reversed. Currently, UUP is on a 10 days old double 35-39 and 92-96 sell plus 218-222 sell which, in SKI books, is super bearish. The 92-96 sell and the 218-222 sell have happened on the same day which additionally aggravates the situation but so far this event only managed to mark an exact low. We will see what happens now. Normally the next 16-20 sell would be a shorting opportunity.

From the weekly chart, it is visible that 25.52 (3.3% lower) is major support and if broken it could spell serious trouble for the dollar. To get back in the bullish position UUP needs to go over 27.20 which this time will not be so easy.

 TLT - bonds
TLT has been in a correction since the end of April. Currently, it is pushing against the downtrend and it needs to buy back the 35-39 echo to enter the blue sky territory. The action of the last few days feels like it is trying to break out.

Bitcoin
After the most amazing recovery performed over the last four months, bitcoin has generated a strong, well constructed, true bull 92-96 signal. The chart is bullish in all timeframes. 

Inflation expectation
The inflation chart has made some progress over the last two months but there is still no evidence that inflation is playing any significant role in the current markets. Deflation is still in control.

I am 100% long and waiting for the next move. My general stop loss is USERX 218-222 sell.

Good luck to everyone,

Branko