Chart Of The Day - UUP, GLD

UUP keeps trying to break out and establish a new uptrend. 

UUP is on a 92-96 sell but, as I described before, it is still in a kind of a 'no man's land' with a slightly bullish bias. Today I will concentrate on very short term technicals. 

The USD/EUR hourly chart is showing an overbought position while running into the major resistance marked with the March 29th peak. This peak needs to be taken out for the higher high to be created on the daily chart. That would be the first daily higher high since the downtrend has started in June 2020. I would guess that this setup is not favourable for an immediate and sustainable breakout (talking very short term, a day or two). 

To illustrate the contest I present the UUP daily chart

Also, the UUP SKI chart, which generated a 16-20 sell signal today that also signals short term weakness ahead. 

GLD daily chart paints the same picture, but opposite. While the uptrend is broken the indicators are flashing oversold conditions. 

Same with the GLD SKIchart. The 16-20 just crossed to buy, not xxed. 

In conclusion, the fat lady hasn't sung yet. 

USERX chart

 

The way support lines are aligned with the 92-96 echo it seems like a possible 92-96 sell might mark some kind of a low.

USERX chart

 

Chart Of The Day, UUP, GLD and SLV

Since my last post, UUP bought the 92-96 echo and then instantly sold but, as I said before, the things are not as bearish as the signals might suggest, on the contrary. Viewed together with the daily chart and the chart of GLD and SLV, UUP looks bullish for now. If the upcoming 16-20 sell cannot stop a new 92-96 buy the UUP will break out and start a new uptrend. The bearish case requires a 35-39 sell before the 92-96 buy.

 Looking at the daily chart shows that the bearish scenario seems less probable for now because it will need the price to cross the 200 days MAV. 

To give the whole picture I'll throw in the weekly chart of UUP, which still looks bearish because of the strong resistance around $25.4-25.6. In the SKI charts that resistance is represented by the 218-222 echo. So, if the 218-222 buys the whole picture turns bullish on all time frames and rally to $27 could be expected.

GLD
While UUP is on the verge of breaking out the GLD is in an opposite position. Nothing has been broken yet but a 35-39 buy would be a sign of relief while a 92-96 sell would definitely mark a breakdown. The worrisome thing would be the price target for such a breakdown which would be around $150 (gold equivalent of $1600).

GLD weekly chart corroborates $1600 as the target if gold breaks down. 

SLV
SLV appears like it has already broken down. The first target $21, the next $19. To negate this setup SLV needs an urgent rise to over $23.29.

Chart Of the Day, UUP

UUP sold off its 92-96 true bull signal today, but the things do not look as bearish as they might seem at the first glance. The path is now clear but the xxing is still off on all indices. For the picture to turn bearish, SKI wise, the next signal needs to be a 35-39 sell. If the opposite happens and the 92-96 buys back first then the picture turns very bullish again, because that buy would be a new true bull signal.

If we consult a traditional TA chart for clarity, the current move looks like a dive into a 'no man's land'. The price is still inside the contracting area but the chart pattern that is emerging seems like a 12-month long inverse head and shoulders that, if broken to the upside, could lead to a massive rally. The price is still above both 50 and 200 MAV (24.62-24.64) and so far the path of least resistance seems to be up.

The resolution on this chart will impact the gold market significantly. 

Chart of the Day, TSLA and AAPL

 TSLA and AAPL have turned bullish which might be interesting for the tech sector and cryptocurrencies. 

TSLA

Tesla's contracting triangle broke out to the upside. A 92-96 true bull signal has been generated today. To be honest, I was expecting a dive to touch the 218-222 but the opposite happened. The chart structure looks healthy for another bull run. Let's see if the signal can hold.

AAPL

Apple broke out of the triple top. The breakout has been marked with the double buy 35-39 and 92-96. The path is on the 35-39. The chart structure looks healthy for a further advance. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum update

 Both BTC and ETH reached a resistance level. If they can push through and above resistance, there is a potentially bullish setup for both charts.

Personally, I think the sentiment is still too bullish to sustain a significant rally, but let's see what happens. I am ready to buy some if they generate 92-96 signals by the end of August.

BTC

ETH