GLD - physical gold ETF
GLD has been on a true bull signal for 79 days and is now trending above its uptrend line while it is approaching the upper border of the channel. It is approaching my first target at 174.00. There is no more danger of a double sell, all indices are in the right order and the picture is clearly bullish.
The 174.00 level was a significant weekly high 4 times during 2011 and 2012, also, it is marking the upper boundary of the rising channel that GLD is inhabiting. For this reason, I am expecting some significant resistance around this price before the GLD is able to move on and attack the all-time high at 185.85.
After 174.00 is cleared I would expect acceleration into the new all-time high and then forming of the first multi-month high of this bull market. During 2005-2011 bull market there were three such highs and all of them were precisely marked with weekly ADX(14) over 45 and have been followed with corrections lasting between 3 and 6 months. Currently, this indicator is at 37.94.
Firm support lies at 169.73 and then at 167.54.
SLV - physical silver ETF
SLV is on a 6 days old true bull signal and is doing well. It has closed the week at 18.01 which is the upper boundary of the 17.50-18.00 resistance area. It feels like it has enough momentum to break through and push further towards 19.71, the 2016 top. If it does so I would still expect it to revisit this area in the weeks ahead to test the breakout from above.
Firm support is at 16.80.
USERX - Gold and precious metals fund
USERX bull signal is on its 58th day and looking healthy. So far the average rise per day is 0.52% but that should accelerate. I expected some more consolidation last week but it was short-lived and by the end of the week the price already broke out to a new multi-month high. If the price can keep above the upper boundary of the channel than the acceleration that I was talking about might have already started.
The next target is at 13.75(very close), the support is at 11.00.
XGD Australian gold index
XGD is on an xxed out 92-96 buy, 67 days old averaging 0.3% per day. The week before last week the price hit the new all-time high. The indices are aligned in a bullish manner.
The target is around 9700.0, support at 8229.6
HUI gold index
HUI broke out above the 2016 high and is in a bullish configuration. Target is at 372.74, the support 283.07.
HUI broke out above the 2016 high and is in a bullish configuration. Target is at 372.74, the support 283.07.
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XAU
XAU broke out above the 2016 high and the indices are in a bullish order. The next target is at 196.71. The support is at 124.02.
GDX
GDX broke out above the 2016 high and the indices are in a bullish configuration. The next target is at 55.25. The support is at 35.25.
GDXJ
The last week GDXJ broke out above the 2016 high, indices are in a bullish order. The next target is at 69.48. The support is at 47.93.
S and P 500
GSPC has bought the 92-96 echo. The price is no more in the no man's land and the momentum is pointing up. There is a strong support around 2900.00.
By examining the daily chart it is visible that the current pattern looks like a gigantic cup and handle that is about 1000 points deep. If it was broken to the upside the long term target is $4000.00!! Sounds crazy but the extension of doom and gloom sentiment out there could actually make it happen.
UUP dollar
For the last 6 months, there were several times when it looked like this chart is establishing a new trend but every time that the price broke up or down it was instantly reversed. Currently, UUP is on a 29 days old double 35-39 and 92-96 sell plus 218-222 sell which, in SKI books, is super bearish. The 92-96 sell and the 218-222 sell have happened on the same day which additionally aggravates the situation but so far this event only managed to mark an exact low.
Last 16-20 sell signal caused a nice drop, as expected, but it has transformed now into a 16-20 index buy signal that is on the path and not xxed. This signal should represent some strong support but so far, after 5 days, it is at a small loss. If it fails it could mean more dollar trouble. Major support lies at 25.54.
TLT - bonds
TLT finally bought back the 35-39 inside the ongoing 92-96 buy signal. This means an acceleration to the upside should occur soon.
Along with TLT, I am showing the TIP chart here as well. This is to illustrate that the inflation-protected bonds have more momentum than TLT.
Inflation expectation
The inflation chart has made some progress over the last two months but there is still no evidence that inflation is dominating the current market because the 50 day MAV is still under the 200 days MAV. Deflation is still in control but based on my TIP/TLT analysis from two weeks ago I expect this to be challenged in the months ahead.
The inflation chart has made some progress over the last two months but there is still no evidence that inflation is dominating the current market because the 50 day MAV is still under the 200 days MAV. Deflation is still in control but based on my TIP/TLT analysis from two weeks ago I expect this to be challenged in the months ahead.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is on a strong, properly constructed, true bull 92-96 signal. Currently, it has sold the 35-39 index and needs to buy it back to signal the start of the new leg up. Bitcoin seems very tightly related to the S and P 500. The weakness of this chart is that the 92-96 true bull is currently underwater by 3.42%.
I am 100% long and trying to stay that way. I was expecting some protracted consolidation before an acceleration into the multi-month top but now I am not so sure it is going to happen. My stop loss now is at USERX 92-96 sell signal. It shouldn't happen for months.
Good luck to everyone,
Branko
